My understanding was that electrification work on Oxford itself didn't start, pending the eventual completion of the station reconstruction.
Although I may be wrong and design work may have been completed.
However, given the cost overruns seen in the GWML project, I'm not sure any design developed by it is going to do well on economics. Or at least whether the people holding the money can be persuaded that it is.
Although the issues that led to overrun on the GWEP have been identified and we can learn from our mistakes.
Even if the electrification designs are complete and usable, its still going to be 2-3 years before such a project can be completed. If any of the work proves to be unusable due to standards changes or environmental approval delays (saying it was approved a decade ago so it should be approved now may not go down well with regulators!) it will be longer.
If they just placed an order for battery trains now they'd probably not arrive that much later.
When are the first of the Churchward BEMUs due to be ordered and delivered?
Well HS2 is adjacent to Chiltern lines in several places in the vicinity of Aylesbury, but I'd suggest feeding from Stoke Mandeville (onto the Princess Risborough branch) or Quainton.
There is a bit of slack on Chiltern at the moment, because East West Rail is unlikely to start soon.
As for BEMU deliveries, they could be delivered sooner if someone actually placed an order for them, I think that's more of a political failing from a government unwilling to commit than anything.
I don't think we can bank on EWR problems not being resolved any time soon; if there is any political will to sort out the railway, EWR will probably be a top priority.
I also don't think the government is unwilling to commit, I just think they want to see how BEMUs perform on UK mainline railways with one fleet before they order en masse.
The future of HEx will probably be decided before a decision on fitting said systems to the trains has to be made in any case, and those costs only represent a small portion of the total cost.
I doubt a permanent decision on HeX is forthcoming anytime soon, if I'm honest.
Well at ~£1.8m per carriage and ~£2.5-4m per single track kilometre for electrification, the capital costs of replacing ALL of the ~2,870 diesel passenger vehicles on the railway would pay for about 1,290 to 2,060km of electrified track. This doesn't account for every BEMU carriage avoiding the need to buy a EMU carriage until it is eventually life expired. We have a relative surplus of EMU carriages but the supply is not infinite.
That's ~650-1,030km of twin track railway, the Chiltern Main Line alone would be 180km or so.
For 1030km max (given this has the advantages of the rolling programme), you could electrify quite a lot of very important lines though.
I appreciate you will need to factor in procurement costs of new pure EMUs for some of the newly electrified lines too, but for 1030km, you can get:
1.) the Chiltern Main Line - 180km.
2.) Newbury to Exeter including Frome station loop - approx. 200km
3.) South Wigston to South Kirkby Jcn via Erewash Valley line/Derby and Trent Jcns to Nottingham - approximately 190km - 210km if you factor in extra tracks to electrify on some sections
4.) Southcote Junction to Basingstoke - approx 22.1 km
5.) Didcot East Junction to Nuneaton - approximately 115.9km
6.) Allerton Jcn to Castlefield Jcn - 46km max
7.) Hazel Grove to Dore Station Jcn/Dore South Jcn - 49km
8.) Ashburys to New Mills South Jcn - 20km
9.) Cogload Jcn to Chippenham/Bristol Parkway - 125km, including allowance for sections with more than 2 tracks
10.) Maryhill Line - 6km
11.) Windermere branch - 17km, but mostly single track, so let's deduct 10km
12.) Crewe to Chester - approx 35km including station wiring in Chester.
13.) Holbeck Jcn to Bradford Interchange - 14km, +/1km for extra wiring around platforms at Bradford Interchange.
That enables you to immediately convert so many services to pure EMU operation (and reduce the need for BEMUs) as soon as these schemes are commissioned, either by using existing stock for new services or extensions in the case of Crewe to Chester, and it also supports the introduction of BEMUs when they are ordered for more operators such as Chiltern regional services, a new EMR regional fleet to replace the 158s initially, a replacement for Voyagers on XC, GWR regionals etc.
I know we don't have the funding in place, but it's certainly an interesting exercise to see what you could electrify for that kind of money, with the perks of enabling decarbonisation of some of the most maligned intercity operators etc.
If battery bimodes have lower up front cost than electrification, and deliver benefits more quickly, them they are the way forward. That matters hugely when interest rates are high. The high up front cost of electrification, and the time it takes to deliver benefits, means borrowing more money for longer, with far higher interest costs.
Do battery bimodes have lower up front cost than electrification of certain stretches? Can we procure battery bimodes in significant enough numbers with available financing to eliminate DMU usage in e.g. a single TOC (or GBR successor) without compromising growth and/or service frequency in the peaks?
I'm sceptical