Well everything on the railway seems to be expensive these days!
My understanding is that all the steelwork and associated parts are gone. There are some pilings in the ground but as far as I know not much other work was done. Even without having to pay for bridge lifts or anything like that, its going to cost a lot of money.
Additionally, the work was postponed a long time ago now, back in 2016, so we must ask if the bridge clearances were done to the old BR specification or the EU backed one that the ORR imposed? Adjusting work done to the former requirements to the latter ones caused no end of problems on the Edinburgh-Glasgow projects at the time.
I agree that it will cost a significant amount, but you don't have to put it through GRIP or any other environmental approval process presumably.
If some minor modifications need to be done to the design to align with updated standards, that's one thing, but we aren't starting afresh here.
Even if we had a pile of money to start today, it is probably unlikely that we can deliver much before the 2030s regardless!
These things take time, and I doubt much design work was done for much of the current unelectrified track beyond the Oxford segment where work actually started.
We now have under 40 months until the 2030s commence.
Wasn't the design fully completed before postponement? I thought it was part of the GWML electrification program.
The through services could restart once the BEMUs are delivered.
My understanding is that the Cowley Branch is to be operated as part of a through service at Marylebone, so charging infrastructure installed there could possibly support it.
If the East West Rail service ever starts, that can probably be provided with charging services in the vicinity of Aylesbury in the interim.
No through services until the BEMUs are delivered is absurd, and I don't think local politicians would be very happy to see it pushed back further.
I highly doubt Chiltern will receive any BEMUs before the mid 2030s, so that basically means Chiltern will have to operate the service with their existing DMUs. Do they have any slack in the fleet, in terms of utilisation?
By Aylesbury I assume you mean somewhere like Steeple Claydon.
I would wholeheartedly support running a very intensive London-Birmingham service from the earliest opportunity, however this seems unlikely to happen at this time.
They've also recently reduced the requirement for power on HS2 by eliminating ATO, which drops us from 18 paths to 17.
In any case, if they did want to do that, it would likely still be cheaper to modify the HS2 substation designs for a slightly higher rating (after all, they are still far from complete!) and still use them to support the Chiltern route than to electrify it from scratch.
On the Aylesbury via Amersham line - I would prefer to simply make a case for transferring the line wholesale to London Underground (contracting for operation), removing the pedestrian level crossings and electrifying it with fourth rail in accordance with London Underground's well established risk management practices. ORR has apparently accepted the risk management case that LU made, as they have no live working and no level crossings.
If this is impossible, I think battery with charging on the shared Metropolitan Line section, backed up by charging at Aylesbury, would be my preferred choice.
Unfortunately, we have now returned to the interest rates of the pre 2008 era, so capital has become expensive.
The era of <1% Central Bank rates and cheap borrowing appears to be over.
I agree re Aylesbury to Amersham - transfer it to LU and it also frees up capacity at Marylebone for more lucrative medium to long distance services better suited to the station.
17tph instead of 18tph on HS2 is a shame, but an intensive OOC to Birmingham still has the potential to take a lot of passengers off the frequent Flixbus/National Express services if Advance tickets are sold at appropriate prices. You could also perhaps run a through ticketed shuttle Birmingham Airport - HS2 services to OOC - Heathrow in cooperation with BA to fill seats, but that's for another thread.
Is there any reason that HeX has to use Electrostars rather than any generic BEMU or EMU that fits in the tunnels?
There isn't, but there's also the investment cost of fitting several new safety systems on a brand new BEMU for a service that has an uncertain future. It's not a convincing prospect for investment.
It continues to amaze me that, almost 5 years after Russia invaded Ukraine, this still doesn't sink in with so many contributors here.
There are two main factors:
- cost of construction has gone up much more rapidly than general inflation: part of that is cost of raw materials, things like concrete and steel are very energy intensive to produce, part of it is employment costs, especially the impact of the big minimum wage and National Insurance increases
- cost of finance has gone up hugely, it now costs the government more than 6% interest per annum to borrow 30 year money: any capital investment project that needs a lot of expenditure up front and takes a long time to deliver benefits has got very very expensive.
I completely understand that the cost of materials has rapidly increased over the last 10 years due to a range of factors, but, even with this in mind, the sparks effect on passenger number, especially with the massive increase in housebuilding along the line that shows no sign of slowing, makes this a very good candidate to invest in.
Local DMU operated services just won't be able to keep pace with the passenger levels, let alone the benefits to intercity/freight services etc.
I also take your point about finance, but this is relevant to the provision of new BEMU stock if electrification is permanently cancelled anyway.
