When will it go all wrong for the SNP?

[DynamicSpirit]

But this ignores the fact that Scotland is culturally and politically distinct from England. It's exactly this dismissive attitude that is driving the push for independence, because the voters in Scotland see that they don't have genuine democracy while Westminister controls them.

Yes, I'd agree that Scotland is - in aggregate - somewhat culturally and politically distinct from the rest of the UK (ironically in part because devolution has allowed the Scottish Government to spend a couple of decades trying to carve out a separate identity, although there were differences before that). And that distinctiveness is - by itself - a reasonable argument for independence (though outweighed I think by other arguments on the other side). But it's totally wrong to claim Scotland therefore doesn't have genuine democracy. Being a minority does not make something undemocratic - it just means you've been outvoted by the majority, which is how democracy works! If those arguing for independence came out with actual reasoned arguments (such as the thing about cultural distinctiveness) instead of stupid hyperbole that falsely makes out that anything that doesn't go their way must automatically be undemocratic, then maybe they'd find the responses would be less dismissive.

Bromley is culturally very similar to the rest of London, but there is a distinct difference between Gretna and Carlisle.

I gave Bexley and Bromley as examples. Bexley is basically car-owning, conservative, strongly Brexit, suburbia: Culturally it's nothing like (inner/most of) London, so I don't think you can use culture as a way to distinguish the argument there from the same argument for Scotland. I'm not quite as familiar with Bromley but it seems similar to Bexley in many ways, although voted Remain in 2016. And in general, England is not culturally homogenous: You'll find huge differences between - say - a typical working-class Northern town and a typical, more middle-class, entrepreneurial, Southern rural commuter area. And I rather suspect that in reality Scotland is also not as culturally homogenous as nationalists like to make out.

 

[Sad Sprinter]

I must say as a Londoner, I find all this talk of nationalism on our small island, both the English and Scottish kinds, rather bemusing. I think Londoners, particuarly inner, younger Londoners, have very little sense of an "Englishness" because the London identity is so consuming. Plus, it takes a long time to even just get out of London's commuter belt.

But that doesn't mean we don't feel British. We just exercise our Britishness through the prisim of being a Londoner. I can't see why we can't all live on the same island and embrace our differences as different sides of a whole. We're all British, we just different flavours of it. I don't want everyone in the UK to be a bog-standard, Southern English style of Britishness, I have no problem with Welshness or Scottishness, because they're all Brittonic/British identites at the end of the day. Just like the London identity can be argued is a modern day Brittonic identity.

It just seems that a clear streak of Scottish nationalism involves painting Scottish and English people as intrisically different and clutching onto those differences instead of building bridges between us. Which is what nationalism does, basically. I must say reading some of the posts on here from Indy supporters the mindset is bewilderingly similar to the old Tory Euroseceptic attitude to the EU in the 90s or 2000s, even though Brexit is apparently heinous to Yes supporters.

And yes, Bromley is nothing like the rest of London! It's very much cultrally part of Kent.

 

[Bletchleyite]

The SNP would be well advised to continue their cultural campaign then because it’s the only part of the independence matrix that actually matters. “We are a distinct intact nation and we think we deserve control over our own affairs” is the only really persuasive Indy argument. Everything else is window dressing.

It seems Rishi Sunak is giving them a hand, too, with his suggestion Westminster may block ScotGov's decision on trans rights. Regardless of what I may or may not think about the actual ruling, this is beyond out of order, and if he does Sturgeon should, and probably will, kick it into a massive constitutional crisis.

In less restrained places, this sort of undermining of democracy would start UDI and a civil war...

 

[AlterEgo]

It seems Rishi Sunak is giving them a hand, too, with his suggestion Westminster may block ScotGov's decision on trans rights. Regardless of what I may or may not think about the actual ruling, this is beyond out of order, and if he does Sturgeon should, and probably will, kick it into a massive constitutional crisis.

It seems a stupid battle to pick, I agree.

 

[GS250]

I

It just seems that a clear streak of Scottish nationalism involves painting Scottish and English people as intrisically different and clutching onto those differences instead of building bridges between us. Which is what nationalism does, basically. I must say reading some of the posts on here from Indy supporters the mindset is bewilderingly similar to the old Tory Euroseceptic attitude to the EU in the 90s or 2000s, even though Brexit is apparently heinous to Yes supporters.

This is something that I happily point out to some of those on Skye. They think they are a different species to those from England. Yet...culturally they have a lot more in common from someone from rural Yorkshire, Somerset etc than a swanky part of Edinburgh.

 

[DynamicSpirit]

It seems a stupid battle to pick, I agree.

I agree to the extent that, publicity-wise it's probably not a good battle to fight because the SNP will certainly turn it into unpleasant accusations of not letting Scotland do what it wants blah blah. But as I understand it, the issue is that the Scottish legislation has possibly been designed in such a way that it might, if enacted, undermine equalities legislation in England. That may well force the UK Government's hand - in effect giving Rishi Sunak little choice but to block the new Scottish trans rights laws.

 

[Bletchleyite]

How does it undermine English law?

 

[Sad Sprinter]

This is something that I happily point out to some of those on Skye. They think they are a different species to those from England. Yet...culturally they have a lot more in common from someone from rural Yorkshire, Somerset etc than a swanky part of Edinburgh.

Or how so many Scots would have affinity with the politics of Lambeth, Southwark, Lewisham, Harringey, Camden, Islington, Newham etc.

 

[GS250]

Or how so many Scots would have affinity with the politics of Lambeth, Southwark, Lewisham, Harringey, Camden, Islington, Newham etc.

Funny you should say that. When the above types descend onto Skye as they frequently do, on the surface it's a potential brotherly political alliance. Maybe some kind of EU 'remain' based progressive kinship even. However sooner or later that's put to bed as the Oyster card brigade soon start showing their unease at peat burning, the regular eating of red meat and the farmers out shooting deer and fox.

 

[Sad Sprinter]

Funny you should say that. When the above types descend onto Skye as they frequently do, on the surface it's a potential brotherly political alliance. Maybe some kind of EU 'remain' based progressive kinship even. However sooner or later that's put to bed as the Oyster card brigade soon start showing their unease at peat burning, the regular eating of red meat and the farmers out shooting deer and fox.

Oh dear, they don't call us 'Southern Sofites" for no reason!

 

[JamesT]

How does it undermine English law?

As I understand it, it creates issues with the UK Equalities Act 2010 as there will now be different criteria for a Gender Recognition Certificate issued under the 2004 UK legislation and the new Scottish act. If Westminster chooses to recognise the Scottish ones on an equal basis then that’s allowing a wider set than would be in England.

 

[Bletchleyite]

As I understand it, it creates issues with the UK Equalities Act 2010 as there will now be different criteria for a Gender Recognition Certificate issued under the 2004 UK legislation and the new Scottish act. If Westminster chooses to recognise the Scottish ones on an equal basis then that’s allowing a wider set than would be in England.

I don't see that as undermining. If Scotland has made its own democratic choice, then it's made its own choice; the fix would be to reduce the scope of the UK legislation to exclude Scotland. I'm not convinced it's a reserved matter, as it's basically healthcare related, which definitely is devolved.

 

[JamesT]

I don't see that as undermining. If Scotland has made its own democratic choice, then it's made its own choice; the fix would be to reduce the scope of the UK legislation to exclude Scotland. I'm not convinced it's a reserved matter, as it's basically healthcare related, which definitely is devolved.

But Equalities is explicitly a reserved matter.

 

[Bletchleyite]

But Equalities is explicitly a reserved matter.

So this is a matter that is both reserved (equalities) and not (healthcare). In that case I'd have expected ScotGov to negotiate the position prior to voting on the matter. However I don't think it's a sensible hill for Sunak to die on, as it were.

 

[Falcon1200]

If Scotland has made its own democratic choice, then it's made its own choice

Every time an opinion poll produces a majority in favour of independence, the Nationalists trumpet this as undeniable justification for Indyref2 NOW. However I have not seen any poll assessing the public's view on Scotland's Gender Recognition Certificate (GRC) but would not be at all surprised to see a majority expressing reservations about the process, if not necessarily an absolute rejection. Personally, despite being in no way a supporter of the present administration, I have no objection to strengthening trans rights and protection, but I was astonished that the Parliament voted against what to me were sensible amendments, such as not allowing convicted sex offenders to apply for a GRC or raising the minimum age from 16 to 18; Particularly as the Scottish Government itself has already decreed that young people are not fully mature until the age of 25 and should therefore be treated more leniently by the courts!

But I agree, while the UK Government has the right and duty to express their concerns, it is not a matter in which they should interfere in Scotland, for apart from the rights and wrongs it would simply provide more raw material for the Nationalist grievance factory.

 

[duncanp]

It seems Rishi Sunak is giving them a hand, too, with his suggestion Westminster may block ScotGov's decision on trans rights. Regardless of what I may or may not think about the actual ruling, this is beyond out of order, and if he does Sturgeon should, and probably will, kick it into a massive constitutional crisis.

In less restrained places, this sort of undermining of democracy would start UDI and a civil war...

Some people might think that Nicola Sturgeon has passed this bill deliberately, in the hope that it would provoke Rishi Sunak into blocking it from getting royal assent.

What would happen though if the positions were reversed, and a similar bill had been passed in the UK parliament first?

 

[birchesgreen]

Some people might think that Nicola Sturgeon has passed this bill deliberately, in the hope that it would provoke Rishi Sunak into blocking it from getting royal assent.

What would happen though if the positions were reversed, and a similar bill had been passed in the UK parliament first?

You mean if the UK parliament had passed something which a majority of Scots including the Scottish government are against? Like Brexit?

 

[JKF]

So this is a matter that is both reserved (equalities) and not (healthcare). In that case I'd have expected ScotGov to negotiate the position prior to voting on the matter. However I don't think it's a sensible hill for Sunak to die on, as it were.

It’s exactly the hill he will choose to fight on, because the ‘culture war’ is the only thing they have left, given standard Tory stuff like a reputation for economic competence and sound governance has gone down in flames. A fight about Scottish independence also plays well with traditional and unionist voters, it was the topic they used succesfully to keep Milliband out of power back in 2015.

 

[Wynd]

Some people might think that Nicola Sturgeon has passed this bill deliberately, in the hope that it would provoke Rishi Sunak into blocking it from getting royal assent.

What would happen though if the positions were reversed, and a similar bill had been passed in the UK parliament first?

Nicola Sturgeon does not pass Bills in parliament. Parliament passes, or rejects, to pass legislation.

It takes quite a distorted perspective to think that members of Holyrood parliament would pass legislation on such a delicate subject just to irritate the PM.

One of the many reasons that Scotlands citizens want independence is precisely because Westminster regularly ignores Scotlands votes, or imposes on Scotland legislation it did not vote for.

 

[DynamicSpirit]

So this is a matter that is both reserved (equalities) and not (healthcare). In that case I'd have expected ScotGov to negotiate the position prior to voting on the matter. However I don't think it's a sensible hill for Sunak to die on, as it were.

I can see how that legislation could be seen as relating to equalities, but how on Earth is it about healthcare? What diseases will it prevent people from catching?

 

[Bletchleyite]

I can see how that legislation could be seen as relating to equalities, but how on Earth is it about healthcare? What diseases will it prevent people from catching?

Healthcare includes mental health. Mental health includes as one aspect gender dysphoria.

 

[Wynd]

Is Ireland closely aligned to the EU? By far and away its largest trading partners are the US and UK.



If Scotland leaves the UK no amount of increased trade with the EU will offset the damage caused by decreased trade with rUK.



Is the UK ‘bottom of the G7’? Yes it is forecast to be the worst in 2023, which seems to have generated some cheap headlines. But that may change. Yes it was the worst in 2020 when it left the EU. But it was also the highest performing in 2021 and the joint second highest this year. Brexit has undoubtedly caused harm to the UK economy, but I say again if Scotland leaves the UK and joins the EU no amount of increased trade with the EU will offset the damage caused by decreased trade with rUK.

Yes, it is very closely aligned with the EU, and trades strongly with the EU. Further, since becoming independent Ireland has dramatically reduced its dependence on the UK for its exports, which in many ways has been a prudent, and lucrative, thing to do. Irish wages are now orders of magnitude higher than they were under Whitehall control, and are significantly higher than UK wages.

The UK is not performing well economically, and in fact has become poorer since 2008. Wages have been flat since then and are now falling at a historic pace. The economic policy pursued by successive governments has not grown the UK economy in the way it should have done.

Your premise is unfortunately unfounded. Trade with the UK will always be important to Scotland. To suggest Scotland could not be successful in diversifying its trading relationships is as wrong as it is unfounded. You would do well to read a bit more before making such sweeping, and inaccurate, economic assertions.

 

[Noddy]

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 26 Dec 2022 ==

Yes, it is very closely aligned with the EU, and trades strongly with the EU. Further, since becoming independent Ireland has dramatically reduced its dependence on the UK for its exports, which in many ways has been a prudent, and lucrative, thing to do. Irish wages are now orders of magnitude higher than they were under Whitehall control, and are significantly higher than UK wages.

The UK is not performing well economically, and in fact has become poorer since 2008. Wages have been flat since then and are now falling at a historic pace. The economic policy pursued by successive governments has not grown the UK economy in the way it should have done.

Your premise is unfortunately unfounded. Trade with the UK will always be important to Scotland. To suggest Scotland could not be successful in diversifying its trading relationships is as wrong as it is unfounded. You would do well to read a bit more before making such sweeping, and inaccurate, economic assertions.

I don’t doubt that Ireland trades with the EU. But Irelands two largest trading partners are the US and the UK. It would perhaps be best if figures from 2020, when everyone knows the global economy was shot to pieces by the pandemic, were not used.





Joining the EU will not, from an economic perspective, offset the damage caused to Scotland by the UK leaving the EU, or Scotland leaving the UK. It would be far better to stay outside the EU to maintain an open border with rUK while chasing good trade deals with the EU, US and China.

 

[GusB]

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 26 Dec 2022 ==




I don’t doubt that Ireland trades with the EU. But Irelands two largest trading partners are the US and the UK. It would perhaps be best if figures from 2020, when everyone knows the global economy was shot to pieces by the pandemic, were not used.

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View attachment 125880

Joining the EU will not, from an economic perspective, offset the damage caused to Scotland by the UK the EU or Scotland leaving the UK. It would be far better to stay outside the EU to maintain an open border with rUK while chasing good trade deals with the EU, US and China.

Being independent will not automatically stop Scotland trading with rUK!

 

[Noddy]

Bring independent will not automatically stop Scotland trading with rUK!

I haven’t said that! And Scotland can still trade with EU now, today and tomorrow!

 

[AlterEgo]

Being independent will not automatically stop Scotland trading with rUK!

No, but assuming rUK stays out of the EU, the inevitable hard border will be harmful to cross border trade.

 

[Falcon1200]

Being independent will not automatically stop Scotland trading with rUK!

No, but it will create barriers and obstacles which do not exist now, meaning that Scottish businesses wishing to export to the UK will be at a greater disadvantage. And I do not agree that possible increased trade with the EU will come anywhere near compensating for loss of trade with the UK.

 

[Wynd]

Noddy, your figures actually do not show what you are suggesting they do. The largest trading partners are the States and the EU. Ireland exports as much to only Germany as the entire UK, and adding in the other EU countries its over 3 times as much as exports to the UK.

Its a similar story on Imports with the ratio around double as much coming from the EU as coming from the UK. Im only reading what you have posted.

The whole argument here centres around the two basic facts. 1, Ireland used to be nearly totally dependent on the UK for trade. and 2. That it has diversified its trade markets considerably, proves not only that the EU is not a barrier to trade relationships, but that Scotland being so dependent on the UK for trade is not a fixed position.

Falcon, trade goes both ways, there will be little desire on the Scottish side to hamper trade flows, its not a one sided argument. Your other thesis doesn't stand up to the evidence above in Ireland, that being wholly dependent on one market is not something that can, or even should, change.

 

[Noddy]

Noddy, your figures actually do not show what you are suggesting they do. The largest trading partners are the States and the EU. Ireland exports as much to only Germany as the entire UK, and adding in the other EU countries its over 3 times as much as exports to the UK.

Its a similar story on Imports with the ratio around double as much coming from the EU as coming from the UK. Im only reading what you have posted.

The whole argument here centres around the two basic facts. 1, Ireland used to be nearly totally dependent on the UK for trade. and 2. That it has diversified its trade markets considerably, proves not only that the EU is not a barrier to trade relationships, but that Scotland being so dependent on the UK for trade is not a fixed position.

Wynd, I’m not saying Ireland’s economy hasn’t diversified! If I have said that or even hinted please show me where. However, global trade has completely changed since Irish independence so I’m not sure how relevant that point is. What I did say was that the US and UK are Ireland largest trading partners.

This

becoming more aligned to the EU, in many ways emulating what Ireland has done economically.

and

Yes, it is very closely aligned with the EU, and trades strongly with the EU.

My point is has the Irish economy become ‘very closely aligned’ with the EU? Yes it does a reasonable amount of trade with European countries but much of this would be happening anyway, regardless of whether Ireland was in the UK and/or EU. The US, UK and China account for over 50% of all Irish exports, for example.

I did say this

Joining the EU will not, from an economic perspective, offset the damage caused to Scotland by the UK leaving the EU, or Scotland leaving the UK. It would be far better to stay outside the EU to maintain an open border with rUK while chasing good trade deals with the EU, US and China

And I stand by this statement. You’re entitled to stand by your belief and I respect this. But I think at best you are looking at this from at best the ‘grass is greener on the other side’ perspective, and at worst cherry picking figures (such as the UK being the worst performing G7 economy, or using 2020 figures).

 

[Wynd]

Wynd, I’m not saying Ireland’s economy hasn’t diversified! If I have said that or even hinted please show me where. However, global trade has completely changed since Irish independence so I’m not sure how relevant that point is. What I did say was that the US and UK are Ireland largest trading partners.

This

and


My point is has the Irish economy become ‘very closely aligned’ with the EU? Yes it does a reasonable amount of trade with European countries but much of this would be happening anyway, regardless of whether Ireland was in the UK and/or EU. The US, UK and China account for over 50% of all Irish exports, for example.

I did say this



And I stand by this statement. You’re entitled to stand by your belief and I respect this. But I think at best you are looking at this from at best the ‘grass is greener on the other side’ perspective, and at worst cherry picking figures (such as the UK being the worst performing G7 economy, or using 2020 figures).

The UK is not, in comparison to the US & EU, one of irelands largest trading partners. In fact, against those two, some $60B each, the UK at $20B isn't even close. See below.

The control of Whitehall over the Irish economy led to a near total dependence on the UK for Irish trade. Scotland is not in the same position, but the control of Whitehall over large parts of Scotlands economy has resulted in some 60% of Scottish trade going to the rUK. That supports your argument that trade has changed and also updates somewhat the relevance of the argument around diversification on Irish trade post Whitehall.

The point here is that diversification is good, and 60% of all Scottish trade going to the UK isn't a ringing endorsement of Whitehall economic policy over the last however many years.

It can be argued, given the present UK Government position of reducing the net wealth of every UK citizen, that diversification of export markets would be a more than prudent move for Scotland to make. Worth remembering that the Act of Union is as much an economic agreement as it is a political one. People forget that.

You can claim to know the future, but I will not. It is possible that a Scotland inside the EU could diversify its trade to such an extent that the UK trade falls below EU trade. It would be a big shift, but given Scotlands already prodigious export economy, I think it would be unwise to bet against it. It would take some time, but I am not brave enough to dismiss it as out of hand, particularly given the example of Ireland. A small, productive, Celtic Northern European nation with a well educated workforce, developed finance sector, productive agriculture, mineral resources....