When will it go all wrong for the SNP?

[jamieintercity]

Given that currently we have a thread on "when will it all go wrong for the tories/johnson". I wonder when it will eventually be time up for the SNP/nicola sturgeon in Scotland? Unfortunately, I cant see happening within the next 12-18 months but if indyref2 goes ahead. Could the SNP collapse if they fail to get indyref2 or remain the dominant party for the foreseeable future?

 

[najaB]

I agree that she's pretty much safe for the next year or so.

 

[Cloud Strife]

This is Sturgeon's last term, regardless of what happens.

In general, the SNP will be very hard to dislodge at this point. They're in the same position as the CiU were in Catalonia, in that they've got the broad support of the business community and the independence-minded community.

If the SNP don't get Indyref2, then they will continue to have a reason to exist. The biggest threat to the SNP is independence, because it's likely that the party fragments at that point between the Social Democratic wing and the Tartan Tory wing.

Right now, the only situation that hurts the SNP outside of independence is that Indyref2 is lost by a bigger margin than the first one. That would almost certainly put the SNP out of government, as the rank and file would be utterly devastated and not likely to continue with politics.

 

[nw1]

As far as I'm concerned: when they helped Johnson win a majority in 2019 - with the chaos that has followed - by voting with the Tories for that silly winter election.

All for selfish reasons of course. I don't have problem with Scotland becoming independent (as long as 60%+ of Scottish residents desire it) but I seriously wonder whether the SNP wanted Johnson to be in power because it would help the independence cause. If they indeed did, they threw liberal voters in the rest of the UK under a bus - and that is something I will never forgive them for.

 

[Cloud Strife]

but I seriously wonder whether the SNP wanted Johnson to be in power because it would help the independence cause. If they indeed did, they threw liberal voters in the rest of the UK under a bus - and that is something I will never forgive them for.

As an old SNP member who had to leave due to the rules of his new party (not in the UK), generally speaking, I think there's a strong argument that Johnson was an excellent antagonist for the SNP. He was pushing people from No to Yes without much effort from the SNP, which wasn't a bad thing.

But no, the hope all along was that Labour would win enough votes, but to require a coalition with the SNP. The SNP took back their lost seats, so the 2019 election was a success in this sense. The presence of a fairly sizable Scottish Tory presence in Westminister was a thorn in the side of the SNP, too.

 

[Falcon1200]

It already went wrong for the SNP, for a generation, in 2014.......

 

[telstarbox]

From south of the border I think the SNP have been very effective at building broad support beyond a purely nationalist base - with some similarities to Sinn Fein in NI although the contexts are obviously not identical.

If they hold and then lose the second independence referendum I don't think it has to be curtains for either Sturgeon or the party.

 

[Acfb]

I wouldn't completely underestimate Sturgeon but I think the most likely scenario is her resigning in 2024 or 2025, after no 'legal' independence referendum has occurred (and Starmer is possibly in power by then with the SNP having weak leverage in a hung parliament) and I'm also assuming the SNP will 'only' poll 40-45% maximum in the 2024 GE if they try to frame it as a plebiscite.


The Holyrood polling is also remarkably stable in terms of the unionist/nationalist blocs, the only changes being SNP voters switching to Greens on the list and the Tories losing votes to LDs and Labour.

The latest independence poll from TechneUK is also 54% NO 46% YES.

 

[MotCO]

If they hold and then lose the second independence referendum I don't think it has to be curtains for either Sturgeon or the party.

Surely, if they lose Indyref2, then another referendum could not take place for 25 - 30 years (a 'generation'). So what do the SNP and Nicola do for the next 25 years? They can't beat the drum for independence - they may actually have to deal with sorting out the NHS, education etc. But do they have the ability to do so? If not, they will be toast.

 

[Cloud Strife]

Surely, if they lose Indyref2, then another referendum could not take place for 25 - 30 years (a 'generation'). So what do the SNP and Nicola do for the next 25 years? They can't beat the drum for independence - they may actually have to deal with sorting out the NHS, education etc. But do they have the ability to do so? If not, they will be toast.

There's no rulebook for this. If the will of the Scottish Parliament is for a third referendum, then there will be. The idea that a democratically elected parliament can only vote for independence every 25-30 years is fundamentally undemocratic.

I wouldn't completely underestimate Sturgeon but I think the most likely scenario is her resigning in 2024 or 2025, after no 'legal' independence referendum has occurred (and Starmer is possibly in power by then with the SNP having weak leverage in a hung parliament) and I'm also assuming the SNP will 'only' poll 40-45% maximum in the 2024 GE if they try to frame it as a plebiscite.

The Holyrood polling is also remarkably stable in terms of the unionist/nationalist blocs, the only changes being SNP voters switching to Greens on the list and the Tories losing votes to LDs and Labour.

The latest independence poll from TechneUK is also 54% NO 46% YES.

Sturgeon already made it clear that this is her last term. If there's no independence referendum, then the SNP will go into the next GE on a single issue. If the SNP then win 50+ seats and there's a hung parliament, Labour might well agree to a referendum in exchange for ending Tory rule. For the SNP, it's tactically much better to have the Tories in power, so Labour will need to come up with something in order to convince them to lend their support.

With Holyrood polling, one thing that should be pointed out is that Yes would be starting from a far stronger point this time round. 54/46 equates to a lead of around 160,000 votes for No, or around 80,000 that need to switch from No to Yes. It's not a huge number, especially when very few voters will switch from Yes to No.

Personally, if I were an English politician right now, I'd be offering Indyref2, but on condition that it is a 'once in a generation vote' enshrined in law and with a special clause that explicitly prevents a third referendum unless 2/3rds of the UK Parliament agrees. The SNP couldn't refuse, yet it could be a poisoned chalice.

 

[MotCO]

There's no rulebook for this. If the will of the Scottish Parliament is for a third referendum, then there will be. The idea that a democratically elected parliament can only vote for independence every 25-30 years is fundamentally undemocratic.


Personally, if I were an English politician right now, I'd be offering Indyref2, but on condition that it is a 'once in a generation vote' enshrined in law and with a special clause that explicitly prevents a third referendum unless 2/3rds of the UK Parliament agrees. The SNP couldn't refuse, yet it could be a poisoned chalice.

I would expect any Indyref2 to be granted on the condition that another referendum could not take place for 25 - 30 years.

 

[Falcon1200]

If the will of the Scottish Parliament is for a third referendum,

That should read the will of the Scottish people, which is not the same thing.

If the SNP then win 50+ seats and there's a hung parliament, Labour might well agree to a referendum in exchange for ending Tory rule.

If Labour agree to that pre-election they lose any chance of my vote; If they agreed to it post-election that would be an abuse of democracy.

 

[duncanp]

I would expect any Indyref2 to be granted on the condition that another referendum could not take place for 25 - 30 years.

It may well be undemocratic to say that you can only have an independence referendum every 25 years.

But it is equally undemocratic to keep expecting to have a referendum every 5 years or so, just because the result of the last referendum wasn't what you wanted.

It remains to be seen how public opinion in Scotland is affected by the advent of a new UK Prime Minister.

 

[Yew]

There's no rulebook for this. If the will of the Scottish Parliament is for a third referendum, then there will be. The idea that a democratically elected parliament can only vote for independence every 25-30 years is fundamentally undemocratic.

And yet why do I feel that an independent Scotland, in the event of a narrow victory, would declare the matter as settled?

 

[Falcon1200]

And yet why do I feel that an independent Scotland, in the event of a narrow victory, would declare the matter as settled?

Exactly; 50% plus one for Yes and there would never be another referendum, ever !

 

[najaB]

Exactly; 50% plus one for Yes and there would never be another referendum, ever !

Why would an independent Scotland have a referendum on independence?

 

[Bletchleyite]

Why would an independent Scotland have a referendum on independence?

if independence goes badly, it might consider asking to rejoin? Unlikely though.

 

[MotCO]

if independence goes badly, it might consider asking to rejoin? Unlikely though.

Could you imagine an independent Scotland, having joined the EU, deciding to rejoin the UK? They would have to Scexit and drop the Euro.

 

[Bletchleyite]

Could you imagine an independent Scotland, having joined the EU, deciding to rejoin the UK? They would have to Scexit and drop the Euro.

If independence goes badly, it might consider asking to rejoin? Unlikely though.

Umm, already said that?

A viable scenario might be a collapsing economy and a failure to join the EU due to a failure to meet e.g. financial criteria with the Squid or whatever they use.

 

[52290]

Having won a referendum on independence the SNP might have a further one on whether to become a republic or not.

 

[OuterDistant]

I'm a bit sorry now Johnson's gone - I was hoping to set myself up as campaign manager for Indyref2.

It would have been the easiest job in the world: simply commissioning several hundred prominent billboards, 50% of which would be photos of Johnson at the lockdown parties, and 50% simply his grinning face filling the whole frame.

 

[duncanp]

I'm a bit sorry now Johnson's gone - I was hoping to set myself up as campaign manager for Indyref2.

I think Nicola Sturgeon is also disappointed about Boris Johnson resigning.

 

[najaB]

I'm a bit sorry now Johnson's gone - I was hoping to set myself up as campaign manager for Indyref2.

It would have been the easiest job in the world: simply commissioning several hundred prominent billboards, 50% of which would be photos of Johnson at the lockdown parties, and 50% simply his grinning face filling the whole frame.

You say that, but we still need to see who replaces him. If it is one of his loyalists then the stink will cover them too - you'll just need to update the poster to show Boris looking over their shoulder.

 

[Cloud Strife]

Having won a referendum on independence the SNP might have a further one on whether to become a republic or not.

There's no real reason for it. The Royal Family pay their way nicely in terms of the sheer amount of rubbish sold to tourists, and she's never been perceived as an "English" Queen.

A friend in Royal Deeside has a business with a royal warrant, and the amount of business he gets from Americans is astounding. They take the royal warrant deadly seriously, and he reckons that it's worth 30-40% of his annual turnover.

 

[Falcon1200]

Why would an independent Scotland have a referendum on independence?

Perhaps because of a 'material change in circumstances', which the SNP use as a major part of their justification for Indyref 2 - For example, their stated aim of rejoining the EU proves unachievable, or it becomes clear that the finances of an independent Scotland are going to be far worse than anyone (in the SNP) had imagined in their worst nightmare.

It would have been the easiest job in the world: simply commissioning several hundred prominent billboards, 50% of which would be photos of Johnson at the lockdown parties, and 50% simply his grinning face filling the whole frame.

Maybe the Unionists would counter with billboards featuring Alex Salmond, Derek McKay, Natalie McGarry, Patrick Grady, etc.

 

[Mag_seven]

Keir Starmer has just ruled out any Labour deal or coalition with the SNP in the UK parliament.

 

[Cloud Strife]

Keir Starmer has just ruled out any Labour deal or coalition with the SNP in the UK parliament.

He has to say that for the English electorate. The reality is that Labour would do a confidence/supply deal with the SNP, probably with Indyref2 as part of the deal.

It's a sign of just how far apart Scotland and England are drifting, and it's exactly this kind of thing that causes a rise in support for independence.

Maybe the Unionists would counter with billboards featuring Alex Salmond, Derek McKay, Natalie McGarry, Patrick Grady, etc.

None of them attract strong feelings in the way that Johnson or the English Tories do among Scots. Someone like Rees-Mogg is pure electoral poison north of the border.

 

[Cdd89]

My suspicion is that independence is only politically advantageous to the SNP up until the point at which it happens.

I therefore have a conspiracy theory (everyone is allowed one!) that many in the SNP do not actually want a legally-binding successful referendum. (A non-binding successful one, or a marginally unsuccessful sanctioned one, would both be great news for their continued relevance).

As for when things will go wrong, it’ll be when they fail to control the fire they are playing with. But so far I don’t see that happening, as I don’t see a pathway to a successful, legally-binding referendum. (One held under a future Labour government would likely fail on the “successful” side?).

 

[Falcon1200]

None of them attract strong feelings in the way that Johnson or the English Tories do among Scots. Someone like Rees-Mogg is pure electoral poison north of the border.

True, but neither is going to be PM soon, or ever !

 

[duncanp]

Keir Starmer has just ruled out any Labour deal or coalition with the SNP in the UK parliament.

What is he going to do if, after the next election, Labour + Lib Dem does not give a majority, but Labour + Lib Dem + SNP does give a majority?

I think the prospect of getting into No. 10 Downing Street might just get him to change his mind.