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When will it go all wrong for the SNP?

najaB

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The problem though is that... what's the point eliminating all border controls when there is no land border anyway. Barring some unexpected and major change in how people travel, anyone travelling from Scotland to the EU will have no choice but to fly [*], and there are very good safety/security reasons for requiring identity checks (such as having people show a passport) for travelling by air - which are not going to change if Scotland joins Schengen. So Scotland joining Schengen would make no practical difference to almost anyone's life there.
Oh, I don't disagree. I was answering the general question of "What benefit is Schengen?" rather than the specific "What benefit is borderless travel to Scotland?".
 
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GusB

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Our position of living on an island means that travel is, by definition, not frictionless. I see no point in being in Schengen when we weren't as part of the UK.
 

Bletchleyite

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Our position of living on an island means that travel is, by definition, not frictionless. I see no point in being in Schengen when we weren't as part of the UK.

That has long been my view. If travel off our island means going on a plane or boat, showing a passport as you board isn't much of a hardship, but queueing for a hard border on the M74 is. Curiously though Iceland is in Schengen I believe.

I would myself oppose England joining Schengen even though I would favour us rejoining the EU, it would bring almost no benefit and lots of downsides.
 

Noddy

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Our position of living on an island means that travel is, by definition, not frictionless. I see no point in being in Schengen when we weren't as part of the UK.

No, as @najaB stated earlier there are many potential benefits to joining Schengen. Malta, Cyprus, Iceland are all island nations in Schengen and in the latters case it’s not even in the EU.

And with relevance to this forum while it is true we are still an island nation in terms of Road and Sea this is simply not true for Rail. Many proposed services using the channel tunnel have failed to gain traction because of the issues around passports/customs.

The issue here is that the SNP/Scottish Government seems to be telling people two different, contradictory, things about how a post independence Scotland would operate.

EDIT: Sorry I’ve just seen that Cyprus isn’t in Schengen yet but committed/has applied to join. The main delay is northern Cyrus and allowing movement across this border (sound familiar?).
 
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najaB

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I would myself oppose England joining Schengen even though I would favour us rejoining the EU, it would bring almost no benefit and lots of downsides.
What, exactly, would the downsides be of the entire UK becoming party to the Schengen Treaty?
 

Bletchleyite

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What, exactly, would the downsides be of the entire UK becoming party to the Schengen Treaty?

Complete loss of control of immigration. That is a red line for me. The Schengen border is leaky at best, and I don't trust the likes of Romania or Spain to act in the UK's interest on immigration into the Schengen area.
 
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DynamicSpirit

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Oh dear :(

It's perhaps somewhat mitigated by that - as far as I can see - the visible addresses all appear to be business addresses rather than people's private houses, but even so that seems a pretty serious blunder that shows some lack of respect for those businesses. (Although, I'm sure this doesn't reflect on the SNP as a whole, it's just one MP's mistake).
 

brad465

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Oh dear :(

It's perhaps somewhat mitigated by that - as far as I can see - the visible addresses all appear to be business addresses rather than people's private houses, but even so that seems a pretty serious blunder that shows some lack of respect for those businesses. (Although, I'm sure this doesn't reflect on the SNP as a whole, it's just one MP's mistake).
The business addresses aspect has been pointed out where this probably isn't an issue, although showing the names of individuals with the business addresses is at best borderline. Even if it is all okay legally it certainly will have to be investigated and isn't overtly smart. I put it in this thread as it wasn't relevant to the Supreme Court ruling and didn't think it was worth a new one, even though yes it is just one MP.
 

DynamicSpirit

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The business addresses aspect has been pointed out where this probably isn't an issue, although showing the names of individuals with the business addresses is at best borderline. Even if it is all okay legally it certainly will have to be investigated and isn't overtly smart. I put it in this thread as it wasn't relevant to the Supreme Court ruling and didn't think it was worth a new one, even though yes it is just one MP.

Agreed, it does seem an extraordinarily stupid thing to do. If he wanted to post an image like that (and it is somewhat revealing in showing how much casework an MP has to deal with), it would've probably taken less than minute with almost any half-decent image-editing software to black out the names and addresses before posting.
 

najaB

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This SNP MP is going to be in serious trouble with GDPR:
A bit of bother, rather than serious trouble. Name and address isn't considered to be sensitive information (especially if it's a business address).
 

MotCO

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Agreed, it does seem an extraordinarily stupid thing to do. If he wanted to post an image like that (and it is somewhat revealing in showing how much casework an MP has to deal with), it would've probably taken less than minute with almost any half-decent image-editing software to black out the names and addresses before posting.
Or alternatively, don't bother tweeting such banal comments. Next he will be tweeting what he had for breakfast.
 

brad465

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Ian Blackford is standing down as SNP leader in Westminster:


Ian Blackford is to stand down as leader of the SNP group at Westminster, it has been confirmed.
Mr Blackford said he believed it was time for "fresh leadership" after five years in the role.
He said he would formally stand down at the party's annual general meeting next week.
There has been speculation in recent weeks that some SNP MPs were plotting to replace Mr Blackford as group leader.
In a statement, he said he would continue in his role as the MP for Ross, Skye and Lochaber and had also accepted a new role at the centre of the SNP's independence campaign.
Mr Blackford said: "After more than five years in the role, now is the right time for fresh leadership at Westminster as we head towards a general election and the next steps in winning Scotland's independence.
"During my time as leader, the SNP won a landslide victory in the 2019 general election, with an increased share of the vote and MPs, and support for independence has continued to grow with polling this week showing a majority in favour."
 

PaulMc7

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On subject of the thread title, I think Nicola Sturgeon will go eventually but the SNP are miles away from bother because of how bad the opposition is up here. The other thing is that the Tories and Labour are seen in the exact same way so unless something dramatic happens and Labour change their stance on independence, nothing will change.

By changing stance I don't even mean being pro-independence I just mean respecting democracy and being willing to allow a vote if the people demand it.

I personally think the SNP aren't great but when the alternative is as utterly dreadful as I can ever remember in my voting lifetime, zero changes will come.

I think some people may lend a vote to Labour in 2024 if independence doesn't come to fruition in order to make sure the Tories are out of Westminster but I don't see it being a large enough amount of people to make the SNP get even close to losing an election.
 

Falcon1200

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I don't see it being a large enough amount of people to make the SNP get even close to losing an election.

Sadly I have to agree, despite the SNP's demonstrable utter incompetence in so many areas, and the latest revelations about their murky finances; How on earth does one of their employees have £100,000 lying around to lend to them, while forgetting somehow to declare it? Yet people still vote for them, which I fully agree does not say a lot for the alternatives....
 

Blindtraveler

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I failed to see how this complete disaster of a party can carry on after the complete shambles with finances of all kinds this week
 

PaulMc7

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Sadly I have to agree, despite the SNP's demonstrable utter incompetence in so many areas, and the latest revelations about their murky finances; How on earth does one of their employees have £100,000 lying around to lend to them, while forgetting somehow to declare it? Yet people still vote for them, which I fully agree does not say a lot for the alternatives....
I'm still baffled by the financial stuff to be honest. The only way they lose an election is if another pro-independence party gets big enough to stand in every seat.

The Greens are generally seen as the belt that holds SNP trousers up and nothing more and Alba are seen as the ultra right wing minority of the independence movement so in reality it probably needs to be a new party entirely.

The Tories have been done in Scotland for so long that it's probably never going to be them and to be honest, thank god for that and with Labour, until they make their own identity instead of just doing what the UK branch tell them then I don't see a long term win for them ever happening either.

The other factor is that Scotland is wildly different politically than England is so what works for votes at Westminster just won't work at all in Scotland. I'm not that old but the next generation after mines is ultra left-wing and I think it'll be the same with every generation in Scotland now.
 

Cloud Strife

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Labour change their stance on independence

There is an argument (and I say this as a former SNP member who only left because it's not permitted to belong to two parties at once) that if Labour were to embrace a second referendum, they would be in with a good chance of unseating the SNP. The problem with Scottish Labour is that they've got a nasty tendency to be in cahoots with the Tories against the SNP. It's very destructive on their part, and if they want to have a chance of removing the SNP from power, they need to make it clear that they won't enter any sort of coalition with the Tories.

As it stands, many left wing Scots are in the position that there's really no alternative to the SNP, because a vote for Labour (or the Lib Dems) is essentially a vote for coalition with the Tories at this point.

It shouldn't be this way, but Scottish Labour made the fatal mistake in 2014 of linking themselves with the Tories, and then their subsequent actions have done nothing but confirm this.

The other thing is that Labour councillors and MSPs have a tendency to go missing as soon as they're elected. The SNP do much, much more work on the ground, and it's reflected in their results. They're very comparable to Sinn Fein in Ireland in this respect: a tremendous party when it comes to boots on the ground.
 

PaulMc7

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There is an argument (and I say this as a former SNP member who only left because it's not permitted to belong to two parties at once) that if Labour were to embrace a second referendum, they would be in with a good chance of unseating the SNP. The problem with Scottish Labour is that they've got a nasty tendency to be in cahoots with the Tories against the SNP. It's very destructive on their part, and if they want to have a chance of removing the SNP from power, they need to make it clear that they won't enter any sort of coalition with the Tories.

As it stands, many left wing Scots are in the position that there's really no alternative to the SNP, because a vote for Labour (or the Lib Dems) is essentially a vote for coalition with the Tories at this point.

It shouldn't be this way, but Scottish Labour made the fatal mistake in 2014 of linking themselves with the Tories, and then their subsequent actions have done nothing but confirm this.

The other thing is that Labour councillors and MSPs have a tendency to go missing as soon as they're elected. The SNP do much, much more work on the ground, and it's reflected in their results. They're very comparable to Sinn Fein in Ireland in this respect: a tremendous party when it comes to boots on the ground.
For me, Scottish Labour missed a trick when Sarwar ended up leader and not Monica Lennon. That was their main chance to go in the right direction to be honest and they absolutely blew it. I don't see myself as fully left wing but I'm in the same boat. I now won't vote SNP because I don't think they're good enough but I also don't know who I will vote for when it comes around again. I had only ever voted SNP prior to the last council elections where I didn't bother in the end because it tends to be a disaster regardless of who runs the councils here.
 

GusB

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The SNP will continue to do well in elections for as long as Labour deny that there is a significant proportion of their voter base who want independence. I would consider myself to be a natural Labour voter, and voted for them in my first general election in 1997. I was never a massive fan of Blair, but I supported many of the policies of the first New Labour government - minimum wage, 10p tax rate and devolution. Labour lost my support after the military actions in Afghanistan and Iraq and, while that was quite some time ago, they haven't done enough to persuade me to come back.

In terms of actual policies, the SNP have been more or less aligned with my views than any other Scottish parties since, and I have consistently voted for them in constituency elections for over a decade now. I wasn't really all that bothered about independence at first, but my view on that subject has gradually changed, probably more so since the Tories took power in 2010. Any chance of me voting LibDem again also evaporated at that point in time.

My vote in general elections goes to the SNP because the Tories are second place. In Scottish Parliament elections, it has been SNP/Green for the constituency and list ballots respectively. So at this moment in time, I have the government that I actually voted for, something that hasn't happened at Westminster since 1997.

Having said all that, nobody owns my vote. The SNP have done some things that I haven't approved of - centralising police and fire and rescue services, for example. On the other hand they've done some things that I have approved of, such as scrapping prescription charges and tuition fees. I don't see them as flawless, but many others seem to think they should be. Show me one political party that doesn't have its issues.

In the meantime, it's the party that a) best fits many of my views, and b) actually has sufficient weight in parliament in order to govern. Alba is still relatively unknown and fairly niche. The Greens simply don't have the numbers to be able to govern.

Leaving the Independence issue aside for a moment, the SNP is really no different in outlook to how Labour was in the early 1990s.
 

Cloud Strife

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The SNP have done some things that I haven't approved of - centralising police and fire and rescue services, for example.

I had an insight into that as a friend's dad was high up in Grampian Fire Brigade/Grampian FRS. He said that it was a double edged sword:

On one hand, it meant that it was much better for firefighters, because they could transfer anywhere in the country without all the bureaucracy and nonsense. He gave the example of his own career, where he had to spend several years in Elgin because there was no possibility of getting a higher rank in either of the Aberdeen commands, and moving to a different Brigade was problematic because of the lack of experience in different areas. So, the centralisation was a good thing, because it meant that firefighters could spend time working elsewhere in order to gain valuable experience. He gave a nice example: if you've got an area with a large amount of retained firefighters and not that many full time firefighters, then it requires completely different management skills to someone working out of a station in Glasgow where they haven't got any responsibility for retained firefighters.

Another thing that he pointed out was that there was a lot of money wasted on duplicate processes, like ordering new equipment.

On the other hand, he said that the local knowledge was priceless, and that he could visit any station in NE Scotland and be greeted with a cup of tea. He pointed out that some people had started off as retained firefighters when he started out full time, and that these people were still doing it 30 years later.

On the whole, he reckoned it would result in a better fire service because they would have more resources for training, but that it was clear that there would be pressure to close some of the retained stations.
 

Wynd

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Given there is now a demonstrable shift in public opinion, evidenced by 6 polls in quick succession, showing support for Independence is now the majority, it’s challenging to see when the SNP out of government soon.

Public opinion appears to be moving towards the key SNP policy.
 

Blindtraveler

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And if this is indeed the case then it provides much stronger ground for another pro-independence party to gain in strength, a new one to start or one of the existing parties to flip to supporting it.

As others have mentioned, the SNP are really not doing the greatest of jobs with the domestic agenda and and this will ultimately be their downfall. If you have a child in school, rely on a ferry service or I have strong views either way on some of the gender equality stuff that's going on at the moment in particular then you are very possibly going to be looking for a new you outlet for your voting loyalty and and the law of averages says that this could well be provided,
 

Noddy

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Given there is now a demonstrable shift in public opinion, evidenced by 6 polls in quick succession, showing support for Independence is now the majority, it’s challenging to see when the SNP out of government soon.

Public opinion appears to be moving towards the key SNP policy.

I suspect this is more a reflection on the clowns running the UK government during the autumn, and a rejection of that, than any ‘positive’ move to the key SNP policy of independence. If you look at the opinion polls over time, when there is obvious incompetence at the top of the UK government Yes pulls out a strong lead such as during covid in 2020 when there were 20 polls in a row between June 2020 (not long after the Barnard Castle controversy hit the headlines) and January 2021 showing a Yes lead. However from April 2021 till early October 2022 when things were a little more stable (if you can count the end of the Bojo era as stable!), only four out of forty showed a Yes lead, despite some further Covid fallout. So while there is a clear shift towards Yes currently, now the adults are back in charge in Downing Street plus with the ongoing financial issues facing the SNP leadership I suspect in 6 months time we’ll be back to the status quo.
 

Falcon1200

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It shouldn't be this way, but Scottish Labour made the fatal mistake in 2014 of linking themselves with the Tories, and then their subsequent actions have done nothing but confirm this.

Labour linked themselves with the Tories for one issue, the independence vote, and in that the link was successful, given the clear No vote. Not sure that, apart from continuing to oppose independence, they are in step with the Tories in any other major area.....

Given there is now a demonstrable shift in public opinion, evidenced by 6 polls in quick succession, showing support for Independence is now the majority,

The majority among those who were polled of course.... How many, where, when? They didn't ask me!

Sadly, because I remember all too well the bitterness and division caused in 2014, not to mention the expense and diversion from the issues affecting people immediately, I am very, very reluctantly beginning to think that Indyref2 could be the only way to put the issue to bed. Only of course it won't, because it seems unlikely that there would be a truly decisive result one way or another. One thing we can be sure of is that no matter by what margin the Independence supporters were to lose (should that be what happened), they will never accept defeat and their agitation and anti-Union rhetoric and blame will continue until the end of time.
 

adrock1976

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What's it called? It's called Cumbernauld
There is an argument (and I say this as a former SNP member who only left because it's not permitted to belong to two parties at once) that if Labour were to embrace a second referendum, they would be in with a good chance of unseating the SNP. The problem with Scottish Labour is that they've got a nasty tendency to be in cahoots with the Tories against the SNP. It's very destructive on their part, and if they want to have a chance of removing the SNP from power, they need to make it clear that they won't enter any sort of coalition with the Tories.

As it stands, many left wing Scots are in the position that there's really no alternative to the SNP, because a vote for Labour (or the Lib Dems) is essentially a vote for coalition with the Tories at this point.

It shouldn't be this way, but Scottish Labour made the fatal mistake in 2014 of linking themselves with the Tories, and then their subsequent actions have done nothing but confirm this.

The other thing is that Labour councillors and MSPs have a tendency to go missing as soon as they're elected. The SNP do much, much more work on the ground, and it's reflected in their results. They're very comparable to Sinn Fein in Ireland in this respect: a tremendous party when it comes to boots on the ground.

Regarding Labour being in cahoots with the Tories, this is the present situation with North Lanarkshire Council.

Ever since the council was created in 1996, it has been run by the Monklands Mafia of Labour, with Jim McCabe (Coatbridge) running it from 1996 to 2016, and Jim Logue (Airdrie Central) 2016 - present. There was a brief spell from May - July 2022 when the SNP ran it, but the SNP leader Jordan Linden got involved in a gay sex scandal, and Airdrie South SNP councillor Michael Coyle having defected to Labour. This staged a comeback for Logue, who created an unholy alliance with the Conservatives much to the annoyance of quite a lot of voters (the Thatcher/Major years saw the closures of British Steel Gartcosh and Ravenscraig, with the scars still running deep in those areas).
 

Cloud Strife

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And if this is indeed the case then it provides much stronger ground for another pro-independence party to gain in strength, a new one to start or one of the existing parties to flip to supporting it.

The problem is that Labour won't do it, the Lib Dems are too reliant on the English part of the party, and the Tories obviously won't. That leaves only the Greens, who came 4th in the regional vote and took 8 seats in the process. Even if people move away from the SNP, then they will switch to the Greens.

Not sure that, apart from continuing to oppose independence, they are in step with the Tories in any other major area.....

There's an example above, but they also quietly support the Tories in other areas too. Aberdeen was a prime example: their councillors were suspended for going into coalition with the Tories, but then they were quietly unsuspended ahead of the last council elections. Then there's a certain degree of not campaigning in SNP-Tory marginals, so that voters get the hint and vote for the Tories rather than the SNP.

Unfortunately, this is causing problems for Labour in places where they were previously strong. Take Aberdeen South, a seat which should be quite safely in the hands of Labour or the Tories. It was previously a Labour stronghold under Anne Begg, then switched to the SNP in the 2015 landslide. The Tories then took it in 2017, but then the SNP took it again in 2019. The more important thing is to look at Labour: they went from 36% under Anne Begg to 8.4% in the last election.

There are historical issues too: traditionally, the Tories were at the front of a broad anti-Labour coalition. It is quite strange and odd to now see Labour quietly cooperating with the Tories in Scotland, especially as numbers suggest that around 1/3rd of Labour voters support a second referendum. It doesn't mean that they'll vote for Yes, but they aren't anywhere near as hostile towards another referendum as the Lib Dems or Tories.

The question is: what do Scottish Labour actually stand for? No-one really seems to know these days...
 

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