When will it go all wrong for the SNP?

[najaB]

What is he going to do if, after the next election, Labour + Lib Dem does not give a majority, but Labour + Lib Dem + SNP does give a majority?

I suspect they will go into confidence and supply arrangement rather than a formal coalition.

 

[GusB]

What is he going to do if, after the next election, Labour + Lib Dem does not give a majority, but Labour + Lib Dem + SNP does give a majority?

I think the prospect of getting into No. 10 Downing Street might just get him to change his mind.

If the SNP is the difference between Starmer getting into number 10, either as part of a formal coalition or as a confidence and supply agreement (far more likely, as @najaB says), I don't think he's going to turn down the opportunity.

I honestly don't see why everyone is getting so worked up about the prospect of the SNP having a say in how the UK is governed anyway. Scotland was still part of the UK the last time I checked and, putting aside the independence issue for a moment, SNP policies have been very Labour-ish over the years anyway.

In fact, I'd go so far as to say that the reason that the SNP has been so successful in recent years is because they were more Labour-ish than Labour were, so it wasn't such a huge jump.

 

[Cloud Strife]

My suspicion is that independence is only politically advantageous to the SNP up until the point at which it happens.

I therefore have a conspiracy theory (everyone is allowed one!) that many in the SNP do not actually want a legally-binding successful referendum. (A non-binding successful one, or a marginally unsuccessful sanctioned one, would both be great news for their continued relevance).

Yes, this is true. The SNP is a big tent party, and the thing that binds the members is independence, and I'd fully expect the SNP to fall apart after independence. It probably wouldn't be in the first election to the Scottish Parliament, but after that, for sure. There are just too many varied views within the party, and some members are certainly closer to the Tories ideologically.

There's also an issue of the rank and file. Right now, the SNP have around 120,000 members, which is a huge number when you consider that the Lib Dems have around 115,000 in the UK as a whole. But how many of them will stay post-independence?

Still, while it might not be to the party's advantage, independence is still the key goal of the vast majority of members. I'd take the dissolution of the SNP in exchange for independence.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 9 Jul 2022 ==

I honestly don't see why everyone is getting so worked up about the prospect of the SNP having a say in how the UK is governed anyway. Scotland was still part of the UK the last time I checked and, putting aside the independence issue for a moment, SNP policies have been very Labour-ish over the years anyway.

Interestingly, the same people getting worked up over the SNP had no issue with the DUP. Hypocrisy, much?

 

[102 fan]

If the SNP is the difference between Starmer getting into number 10, either as part of a formal coalition or as a confidence and supply agreement (far more likely, as @najaB says), I don't think he's going to turn down the opportunity.

I honestly don't see why everyone is getting so worked up about the prospect of the SNP having a say in how the UK is governed anyway. Scotland was still part of the UK the last time I checked and, putting aside the independence issue for a moment, SNP policies have been very Labour-ish over the years anyway.

In fact, I'd go so far as to say that the reason that the SNP has been so successful in recent years is because they were more Labour-ish than Labour were, so it wasn't such a huge jump.

Remember how well the Conservative agreement with the DUP went down with the Country? Or is it ok for Left of centre parties to have agreements, and not right of centre?

 

[Cloud Strife]

Remember how well the Conservative agreement with the DUP went down with the Country? Or is it ok for Left of centre parties to have agreements, and not right of centre?

The DUP agreement was a non-issue from my point of view. I always thought it was very condescending towards Northern Irish voters, not least because the DUP were just as legitimate as any other political party. The DUP might be dinosaurs in their beliefs, but they were and are a legitimate political party.

Although there was an issue for the Tories in that their traditional partners were always the UUP n Northern Ireland, and the agreement with the DUP was a slap in the face to the UUP.

 

[102 fan]

The DUP agreement was a non-issue from my point of view. I always thought it was very condescending towards Northern Irish voters, not least because the DUP were just as legitimate as any other political party. The DUP might be dinosaurs in their beliefs, but they were and are a legitimate political party.

Although there was an issue for the Tories in that their traditional partners were always the UUP n Northern Ireland, and the agreement with the DUP was a slap in the face to the UUP.

IIRC the contentious issue was the extra money going to NI. I did think it strange that the Left complained about UK citizens getting financial help, but then we couldn't vote Labour if we wanted to, leading to the strange situation that a party supposedly based on fairness and rights can impose a government that part of the UK cannot vote for.

 

[Noddy]

Obviously there’s been a lot of announcements (plus the court case) over the last few days re the Scottish Governments proposals for independence. Obviously lots to consider most of which seems plausible (regardless of which side of the debate you are on). However, one thing that I saw on the BBC article today is that the Scottish government plans to both remain in the Common Travel Area and join the Schengen Area. This simply does not seem achievable to me as, as I understand it, both areas offer visas to allow third party citizens to travel/work, passportless travel internally (open borders), etc, but require passports when travelling between them. If Schengen citizens outwith Scotland aren’t required to show a passport to get into Scotland but are required to show one to get into rUK and/or Ireland how would that work if there’s open borders for the CTA at Carnryan, Carlisle and Berwick? Is there a mechanisms within the CTA and/or Schengen to allow a country to be a member of both?

 

[nw1]

Obviously there’s been a lot of announcements (plus the court case) over the last few days re the Scottish Governments proposals for independence. Obviously lots to consider most of which seems plausible (regardless of which side of the debate you are on). However, one thing that I saw on the BBC article today is that the Scottish government plans to both remain in the Common Travel Area and join the Schengen Area. This simply does not seem achievable to me as, as I understand it, both areas offer visas to allow third party citizens to travel/work, passportless travel internally (open borders), etc, but require passports when travelling between them. If Schengen citizens outwith Scotland aren’t required to show a passport to get into Scotland but are required to show one to get into rUK and/or Ireland how would that work if there’s open borders for the CTA at Carnryan, Carlisle and Berwick? Is there a mechanisms within the CTA and/or Schengen to allow a country to be a member of both?

And of course English/Welsh/NI citizens being limited to 90 consecutive days in Scotland.

Better solution: once the Johnson/Truss era is over, the whole of the UK, plus Scotland if it becomes independent, should join Schengen, in a similar manner to Norway, Iceland and Switzerland. Of course the "strong borders, keep the dirty foreigners out" authoritarians would not stand for that, but it would solve one heck of a lot of problems.

 

[yorksrob]

Interestingly, the same people getting worked up over the SNP had no issue with the DUP. Hypocrisy, much?

The DUP aren't trying to break up Britain.

 

[DynamicSpirit]

However, one thing that I saw on the BBC article today is that the Scottish government plans to both remain in the Common Travel Area and join the Schengen Area. This simply does not seem achievable to me as, as I understand it, both areas offer visas to allow third party citizens to travel/work, passportless travel internally (open borders), etc, but require passports when travelling between them. If Schengen citizens outwith Scotland aren’t required to show a passport to get into Scotland but are required to show one to get into rUK and/or Ireland how would that work if there’s open borders for the CTA at Carnryan, Carlisle and Berwick? Is there a mechanisms within the CTA and/or Schengen to allow a country to be a member of both?

It wouldn't seem very workable. If Scotland was in the CTA and Schengen, and there were no border checks, then it would become very easy for any EU citizen to (illegally) travel via Scotland into England/the rest of the UK, and any 'rest-of-UK' citizen could similarly illegally travel to any Schengen country, via Scotland. I suspect that in practice, Scotland would find that if it tried to negotiate membership of both areas, then both rUK and the EU would simply refuse - since it would be in the interests of neither of those to agree - and Scotland would be forced to choose either one or the other.

Since Scotland doesn't have any land border with the EU, I wouldn't have thought Schengen membership would make much sense anyway - the benefits of it would be virtually zero.

 

[brad465]

The DUP aren't trying to break up Britain.

They are not trying, but they are helping Irish reunification inadvertently.

I think things will go wrong for the SNP in one of two scenarios: 1, they get a referendum, Yes win, and then they actually have to run Scotland without being able to use the cause as a distraction tactic. 2, No win a vote comfortably and the issue can no longer be used effectively to drum up party support. Any other scenario and the SNP will continue to be popular enough to dominate in Scotland.

 

[Noddy]

And of course English/Welsh/NI citizens being limited to 90 consecutive days in Scotland.

Better solution: once the Johnson/Truss era is over, the whole of the UK, plus Scotland if it becomes independent, should join Schengen, in a similar manner to Norway, Iceland and Switzerland. Of course the "strong borders, keep the dirty foreigners out" authoritarians would not stand for that, but it would solve one heck of a lot of problems.

Unfortunately given that immigration was one of the major reasons we choose to leave I can’t see the UK/rUK joining Schengen (and as a remainer I strongly believe that if we’d had a more restrictive policy during our time in the EU at least 2% of folk would have voted to remain rather than leave and we’d still be in the EU).

It wouldn't seem very workable. If Scotland was in the CTA and Schengen, and there were no border checks, then it would become very easy for any EU citizen to (illegally) travel via Scotland into England/the rest of the UK, and any 'rest-of-UK' citizen could similarly illegally travel to any Schengen country, via Scotland. I suspect that in practice, Scotland would find that if it tried to negotiate membership of both areas, then both rUK and the EU would simply refuse - since it would be in the interests of neither of those to agree - and Scotland would be forced to choose either one or the other.

Since Scotland doesn't have any land border with the EU, I wouldn't have thought Schengen membership would make much sense anyway - the benefits of it would be virtually zero.

Yeah I don’t see the benefits to announcing this, even if that’s what the SNP leadership ultimately want. On a practical level I just don’t understand how they think it could work/be implemented. There was more talk today over using ‘technology’ at the Scotland/rUK border but that sounds exactly like what the EU leavers said and look how that is panning out for Northern Ireland. I can’t imagine saying they plan to join Schengen is going to suddenly win anyone over (it wouldn’t really confer any significant benefits for Scottish citizens), and it gives unionists another stick to beat them over having a harder border with the rUK. Very strange.

 

[yorksrob]

They are not trying, but they are helping Irish reunification inadvertently.

The same could be said of the Tory party.

 

[THC]

The DUP aren't trying to break up Britain.

If by Britain you mean the UK then you could have fooled me. Their shenanigans over the last few years (*that* call to May, their posturing over the NI Protocol, their refusal to take seats in the NI Assembly under a SF First Minister) are only turning soft nationalists hard and soft unionists non-aligned. Momentum for a border poll is building and when one is called - it's a one-way ticket and the GFA mandates a seven-year minimum between each - it'll only be a matter of time until Irish reunification. Tick tock...

THC

 

[yorksrob]

If by Britain you mean the UK then you could have fooled me. Their shenanigans over the last few years (*that* call to May, their posturing over the NI Protocol, their refusal to take seats in the NI Assembly under a SF First Minister) are only turning soft nationalists hard and soft unionists non-aligned. Momentum for a border poll is building and when one is called - it's a one-way ticket and the GFA mandates a seven-year minimum between each - it'll only be a matter of time until Irish reunification. Tick tock...

THC

I'm not saying that they're not cloth-eared about it and ( in being so undermine their own interests). Just that it's not their avowed aim.

The SNP is by design an existential threat to the country.

 

[Cloud Strife]

Is there a mechanisms within the CTA and/or Schengen to allow a country to be a member of both?

It can be done, sort of. Schengen is more than just border control, but it also includes things like information sharing. So, while full Schengen membership is incompatible with the CTA, it's possible to implement the other Schengen provisions, just as Ireland has.

Having said that, a hard Schengen border is quite achievable on the Scotland / rUK border. There's not that many crossings between the two, and it is quite easy to establish border control in Edinburgh and Glasgow stations.

If Ireland unites after a referendum, then Schengen for Scotland and Ireland is very likely to be on the cards. Ireland won't remain in the CTA post unification because there's simply no reason to do so.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 17 Oct 2022 ==

The SNP is by design an existential threat to the country.

And? We already get treated as third class citizens by England, so why do you even care?

 

[yorksrob]

And? We already get treated as third class citizens by England, so why do you even care?

How exactly ?

 

[Noddy]

It can be done, sort of. Schengen is more than just border control, but it also includes things like information sharing. So, while full Schengen membership is incompatible with the CTA, it's possible to implement the other Schengen provisions, just as Ireland has.

Having said that, a hard Schengen border is quite achievable on the Scotland / rUK border. There's not that many crossings between the two, and it is quite easy to establish border control in Edinburgh and Glasgow stations.

If Ireland unites after a referendum, then Schengen for Scotland and Ireland is very likely to be on the cards. Ireland won't remain in the CTA post unification because there's simply no reason to do so.

I am not aware that Ireland has implemented other specific Schengen provisions though? Happy to see evidence they have but my understanding is they chose to opt out of the agreement in 1985 (and everything that came with it) for the explicit reason that it would result in having to leave the common travel area. I also doubt that a United Ireland would opt to leave the CTA as the CTA is what gives Irish citizens unrestricted freedom to move, work and study in the UK and crown dependencies (and vice versa), unlike other EU citizens.

I don’t doubt that hard crossings could be established (although you seem to have forgotten all the intermediate stations south of Glasgow/Edinburgh, and the 25 or so road crossings which will be fun for the locals) but that’s exactly my point. Yesterday Sturgeon said no one would have to show a passport if they are visiting relatives/friends but I simply can’t see a way this statement is compatible with applying to join Schengen. So which is it? It gives the unionist ammunition, for very little gain in terms of winning people over.

And? We already get treated as third class citizens by England, so why do you even care?

As someone who has lived and worked in both and has family who live and work in both this statement is simply not true.

 

[Falcon1200]

And? We already get treated as third class citizens by England, so why do you even care?

Yes, how exactly? And I do live in Scotland.

 

[GusB]

I'm not saying that they're not cloth-eared about it and ( in being so undermine their own interests). Just that it's not their avowed aim.

The SNP is by design an existential threat to the country.

Calm down, dear!

The biggest existential threat to the UK is the party that currently occupies the biggest number of seats at Westminster, so let's not pretend otherwise.

 

[yorksrob]

Calm down, dear!

The biggest existential threat to the UK is the party that currently occupies the biggest number of seats at Westminster, so let's not pretend otherwise.

I'm not saying that they're not as well.

They make excellent bedfellows in some ways.

 

[GusB]

I'm not saying that they're not as well.

They make excellent bedfellows in some ways.

Yeah, right!

 

[najaB]

I also doubt that a United Ireland would opt to leave the CTA as the CTA is what gives Irish citizens unrestricted freedom to move, work and study in the UK and crown dependencies (and vice versa), unlike other EU citizens.

That belief is based on the assumption that the populace of this future unified Ireland places more value on their relationship with the UK than the rest of the EU.

Today that may be so, but in the future...?

 

[AlterEgo]

Calm down, dear!

The biggest existential threat to the UK is the party that currently occupies the biggest number of seats at Westminster, so let's not pretend otherwise.

Well quite!

As an Indy-sceptic in Scotland’s case I was interested to read Sturgeon’s briefing yesterday. Very few commitments but still, better than nothing at sketching out the rough shape of what iScotland would look like.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 18 Oct 2022 ==

That belief is based on the assumption that the populace of this future unified Ireland places more value on their relationship with the UK than the rest of the EU.

Today that may be so, but in the future...?

I don’t see it ever going. CTA is so massively important to so many Irish people they won’t accept a binary choice. Indeed, it can be politically be framed as “a concession to the Unionist minority” even if such a framing would be dishonest.

 

[yorksrob]

Yeah, right!

Well, they're both working to break up Britain. It's just that the SNP are the only ones with the self-knowledge to realise it.

 

[Noddy]

That belief is based on the assumption that the populace of this future unified Ireland places more value on their relationship with the UK than the rest of the EU.

Today that may be so, but in the future...?

I don’t doubt this (although not in my life time). However, it still doesn’t really answer the question of what are the advantages to the Irish/hypothetical Scottish citizen of joining Schengen vs leaving the CTA. My understanding it doesn’t confer any additional rights to the citizen? The more I think about it the more I think the SNP know there will be a hard border (despite statements of the opposite), and they are softening up people in advance.

 

[najaB]

I don’t see it ever going. CTA is so massively important to so many Irish people they won’t accept a binary choice. Indeed, it can be politically be framed as “a concession to the Unionist minority” even if such a framing would be dishonest.

I agree that it's not likely to happen any time soon, but forever is a long time. A century after unification, assuming that the EU and Schengen still exist, there won't be anyone alive in Ireland who would have any memory of the time before the EU, or of such a thing as a "unionist movement".

I don’t doubt this (although not in my life time). However, it still doesn’t really answer the question of what are the advantages to the Irish/hypothetical Scottish citizen of joining Schengen vs leaving the CTA. My understanding it doesn’t confer any additional rights to the citizen?

Inside the country, no. Schengen wouldn't change the status of nationals in their own country. Being in Schengen does, naturally, confer rights in the other participating countries and, probably more importantly, eliminates almost all trade barriers.

 

[DynamicSpirit]

I agree that it's not likely to happen any time soon, but forever is a long time. A century after unification, assuming that the EU and Schengen still exist, there won't be anyone alive in Ireland who would have any memory of the time before the EU, or of such a thing as a "unionist movement".

That does of course presume that Unification will happen. Maybe I'm mistaken but my understanding is that polls show that there's no sign that a majority for unification is likely in the near future: The demographic changes towards a higher % of the population being Catholic is large counterbalanced by the growing number of Catholics who would prefer to remain in the UK.

Inside the country, no. Schengen wouldn't change the status of nationals in their own country. Being in Schengen does, naturally, confer rights in the other participating countries and, probably more importantly, eliminates almost all trade barriers.

The problem though is that... what's the point eliminating all border controls when there is no land border anyway. Barring some unexpected and major change in how people travel, anyone travelling from Scotland to the EU will have no choice but to fly [*], and there are very good safety/security reasons for requiring identity checks (such as having people show a passport) for travelling by air - which are not going to change if Scotland joins Schengen. So Scotland joining Schengen would make no practical difference to almost anyone's life there.

[*] with the small exception that, if Irish Unification happens, you might get a ferry to Ireland.

 

[Noddy]

Inside the country, no. Schengen wouldn't change the status of nationals in their own country. Being in Schengen does, naturally, confer rights in the other participating countries and, probably more importantly, eliminates almost all trade barriers.

What additional rights though?

I absolutely get the potential trade and security benefits of Schengen to a country as a whole and hoped when we were in the EU that we would join. However, given the geographic isolation of Scotland to the rest of Europe I just can’t see how joining Schengen can possibly out-way the social (and economic) benefits of frictionless movement between iScotland and rUK.

 

[duncanp]

However, given the geographic isolation of Scotland to the rest of Europe I just can’t see how joining Schengen can possibly out-way the social (and economic) benefits of frictionless movement between iScotland and rUK.

I think it is for the same reason that the Irish Republic has not joined the Schengen area.