When will it go all wrong for the SNP?

[Noddy]

The UK is not, in comparison to the US & EU, one of irelands largest trading partners. In fact, against those two, some $60B each, the UK at $20B isn't even close. See below.

Once again, I think you are being selective with your data. You claim the UK is not one of Ireland’s largest trading partners but only include one half of the partnership. As I showed in post 143 Ireland imports more from the UK than any other country. But that’s not the point I’m making, and personally I think is actually irrelevant, as the main point I was making was about Irelands main trading relationships, not the UK specifically.

The EU is not a magic money tree which is going to suddenly revolutionise the Scottish economy, and make up for the harm caused by a creating hard border with rUK. If you are going to start talking about historic relationships you can see that (while there have been peaks and troughs) Ireland’s trade with the EU, in percentage terms, for both exports and imports, it has not really changed significantly since the early 1980s. I don’t call this very close alignment, especially given how much both the Irish economy has undoubtedly changed, as well as how much the EU itself and Europe more generally have changed over the same period.

 

[DynamicSpirit]

You can claim to know the future, but I will not. It is possible that a Scotland inside the EU could diversify its trade to such an extent that the UK trade falls below EU trade. It would be a big shift, but given Scotlands already prodigious export economy,

Sure, it's possible. But consider that Scotland's border with England (and, via England, Wales) is a direct land border with multiple rail and road crossings (Something that, by the way, doesn't apply to Ireland which makes comparisons with Ireland a little questionable). Trade with almost anywhere in the EU will - by contrast - require transporting stuff hundreds of miles by air or sea. Do you seriously think it's in the interests of Scotland to swap such a convenient trade route with such a long route for most trade?

 

[Falcon1200]

Scotland is not in the same position, but the control of Whitehall over large parts of Scotlands economy has resulted in some 60% of Scottish trade going to the rUK.

There is surely a little more to it than that! Being part of a contiguous land mass with no disruptive border of any kind and excellent and well-used direct road and rail links, sharing language, currency, tradition, not to mention the social ties that link all the UK, may have something to do with it, rather than those evil overlords in London constantly plotting how to do down poor little Scotland.

 

[Blindtraveler]

Several news sources yesterday evening were suggesting that they might be stepping back ever so slightly from the "defacto referendum" at the next general election pledge. This will make some sides rather angry and others extremely happy if it turns out to be the case

 

[Wynd]

There is surely a little more to it than that! Being part of a contiguous land mass with no disruptive border of any kind and excellent and well-used direct road and rail links, sharing language, currency, tradition, not to mention the social ties that link all the UK, may have something to do with it, rather than those evil overlords in London constantly plotting how to do down poor little Scotland.

If you assess the facts as they are, you may come to some surprising revelations about how Whitehall doesn't manage the Scottish economy, well the bits of it they have control over, very well at all. The same can be said for the north of England, and Wales.

Several news sources yesterday evening were suggesting that they might be stepping back ever so slightly from the "defacto referendum" at the next general election pledge. This will make some sides rather angry and others extremely happy if it turns out to be the case

There is significant debate within the Yes movement about this policy. Its no where near as popular as many would have you think.

 

[GusB]

Several news sources yesterday evening were suggesting that they might be stepping back ever so slightly from the "defacto referendum" at the next general election pledge. This will make some sides rather angry and others extremely happy if it turns out to be the case

There is significant debate within the Yes movement about this policy. Its no where near as popular as many would have you think.

The de-facto referendum idea is certainly not one that I'm comfortable with. For a start, there is a significant number of people who are unable to vote in a UK general election who would be eligible to vote in an actual referendum - 16 and 17 year-olds, for example. To use the result of a general election is effectively ignoring the views of these people.

If we are to have a de-facto referendum, I'd be far more willing to wait for the next Scottish Parliamentary election. It's only 3 years away and by then we'll know what the result of the next general election will be. If we end up with the Tories being elected, so much the better for the independence cause, but we're only going to know what Labour will do once they're actually in power.

If there was an opportunity to have independence tomorrow I'd take it, but I'm willing to be a little more patient.

 

[Wynd]

A diminished franchise, a questionable forum, GE, limited time, its not a walk over, that's for sure.

The brightest thing those on the Yes side could do, would be to place front and centre, the current legislative settlement, namely the 1998 Scotland Act.

No, there are not enough Scottish MP's to change it, but that would be a strategy highlighting the nature of the Union, that the balance of power actually lays with 300 odd English MP's.

It doesn't win you independence, but it does put in to sharp focus, the instrument that has facilitated to the Sec 35 intervention, and of course the Supreme Court judgment. Branding it along the lines of "Give Holyrood the power" would be pushing against an open door, given the polling on Holyrood in recent years.

That would be a fairly deft political sidestep.

 

[Noddy]

The de-facto referendum idea is certainly not one that I'm comfortable with. For a start, there is a significant number of people who are unable to vote in a UK general election who would be eligible to vote in an actual referendum - 16 and 17 year-olds, for example. To use the result of a general election is effectively ignoring the views of these people.

If we are to have a de-facto referendum, I'd be far more willing to wait for the next Scottish Parliamentary election. It's only 3 years away and by then we'll know what the result of the next general election will be. If we end up with the Tories being elected, so much the better for the independence cause, but we're only going to know what Labour will do once they're actually in power.

If there was an opportunity to have independence tomorrow I'd take it, but I'm willing to be a little more patient.

It interesting that you’d prefer to wait for the Scottish Parliament election. As I understand it (correct me if I’m wrong) the only time the nationalists have got significantly over 50% in a major election was the 2015 UK general election when the SNP got 50% and the Greens got 1.3%.

*the SNP, Greens and Alba achieved 50.12% in the regional vote in the 2021 Scottish Parliament vote but that kind of result would almost be too close to call as the Tories, Labour and LDs got 50.42% in the constituency vote.

 

[Blindtraveler]

It could also be potentially quite risky for the yes movement and the instigators of such a plan. Whilst I openly admit that satan would be skating to work before I would never vote SNP in anything, there are no doubt plenty of people like my next door neighbour who who support the idea of independence but not the SNP and equally plenty of those who support a certain amount of what the SNP are doing but don't want independence. Both of these categories would almost certainly protest vote in some way and the results could be by very very interesting indeed.v

 

[GusB]

It interesting that you’d prefer to wait for the Scottish Parliament election. As I understand it (correct me if I’m wrong) the only time the nationalists have got significantly over 50% in a major election was the 2015 UK general election when the SNP got 50% and the Greens got 1.3%.

*the SNP, Greens and Alba achieved 50.12% in the regional vote in the 2021 Scottish Parliament vote but that kind of result would almost be too close to call as the Tories, Labour and LDs got 50.42 in the constituency vote.

That's why I'm not entirely comfortable with using any election as a de-facto referendum!

There is also potential for complaints along the lines of "not everyone who votes SNP votes for Independence". There probably are people who vote SNP while being lukewarm on the subject, but ultimately if you vote for a party whose main reason for existing is independence...

there are no doubt plenty of people like my next door neighbour who who support the idea of independence but not the SNP and equally plenty of those who support a certain amount of what the SNP are doing but don't want independence. Both of these categories would almost certainly protest vote in some way and the results could be by very very interesting indeed.v

Indeed. This is why, if the next general election is to become a de-facto referendum, it should be made clear that a vote for any of the pro-independence parties should be counted, and not just a vote for the SNP. However, the SNP is going to want to maximise the number of seats it gains at Westminster and is therefore unlikely to encourage anyone to vote for another party.

 

[Wynd]

...the SNP is going to want to maximise the number of seats it gains at Westminster and is therefore unlikely to encourage anyone to vote for another party.

And herein lies the inherent flaw in such a strategy.

To campaign one day on securing a vote to begin negotiations to form a new state, to then, the very next day, take your seat in an institution that you0 would now be claiming hold no legislative, political, or moral authority, if you were to win such a vote.

If the next GE is a de-facto referendum, no individual, of any political colour, can credibly sit in Westminster from the Independence side.

It is for this reason, among many others, that the only credible electoral path forwards now is to challenge the legislation of Westminster, in a Westminster election.

 

[Blindtraveler]

To drift a little back closer to topic, if they have indeed begun to climb down over this policy then how many others are they going to renege on and how many more quietly executed u-turns will we see and more to the point how long will the supporters of the party and of Nicola herself tolerate it

 

[Falcon1200]

This is why, if the next general election is to become a de-facto referendum, it should be made clear that a vote for any of the pro-independence parties should be counted, and not just a vote for the SNP.

Would that be enough to prevent supporters of the Greens in every policy except independence voting for them anyway - Who else would they vote for?!

To drift a little back closer to topic, if they have indeed begun to climb down over this policy then how many others are they going to renege on and how many more quietly executed u-turns will we see

There is already another, which had gone somewhat unremarked due to the Gender Recognition furore; The abolition of peak fares on Scotrail, announced with grand fanfare and stated to apply nationwide, will now only apply on 'some routes'; How many, and what those routes are, nobody knows!

 

[JamesT]

I believe the suggested setup for an election being a de facto referendum is that the pro-independence parties would stand on a manifesto that simply reads "a vote for us is a vote for independence". That is supposed to resolve issues around people voting for the SNP for other reasons, as it would be clear what you were voting for.

If a Westminster General Election has issues with the franchise etc. there are apparently ways of forcing a Holyrood election which could be used as a referendum. Some more cynical commentators suggest that Sturgeon doesn't actually want a referendum, but is quite happy with the status quo.

 

[Falcon1200]

That is supposed to resolve issues around people voting for the SNP for other reasons, as it would be clear what you were voting for.

But where do such people go, especially as I mentioned above Green-but-not-Independence supporters? Do they just not vote at all?

 

[JamesT]

But where do such people go, especially as I mentioned above Green-but-not-Independence supporters? Do they just not vote at all?

Not vote, or pick the next best option of a party with policies you support but not in favour of independence?

I expect it’s a similar choice Green voters have when their candidate stands down in seats such as Oxford West & Abingdon in order to “get the Tories out”.

 

[birchesgreen]

But where do such people go, especially as I mentioned above Green-but-not-Independence supporters? Do they just not vote at all?

Do what everyone else in every election ever does, accept the fact the party you like most may have some policies you don't like as well.

 

[Falcon1200]

Do what everyone else in every election ever does, accept the fact the party you like most may have some policies you don't like as well.

That is exactly what I do, however in the case of Scottish Independence the Nationalists cannot then dictate that every vote for the Greens is also automatically a vote for separation!

 

[PaulMc7]

I'm pro-independence but the "a vote for us is a vote for independence" mantra doesn't really work because it goes both ways now. Scottish Labour have a lot of voters that are pro-independence and there are some SNP voters who want to remain part of the UK.

I only ever voted SNP until the last council election where I chose not to vote because nobody is good enough to earn my vote. I generally don't know if that will be the case by the next election and I hope it isn't but time will tell.

If the Greens and Alba were bigger parties and ran in more areas it would help pro-independence voters who were unsure of the SNP but until that happens we are stuck between a rock and a hard place.

The other issue in Scotland is that football tends to dictate political allegiances far too much too and I say that as a Celtic fan. Our support has a strong core of old school Labour voters along with SNP voters and then over at Rangers, there is some pro-independence voters but a far more vocal core of Tory voters just because they have to do the opposite of anything Celtic fans do.

This tends to be where a lot of the "wee nippy" comments come from on social media too from experience. When those comments start to come in on news posts there is usually a Union Jack and a lot of blue on the profile.

 

[GusB]

there are some SNP voters who want to remain part of the UK

These people cast their votes in the full knowledge that the SNP's main agenda is independence. Similarly, anyone who cast their vote in favour of Alba or the Scottish Greens should be fully aware that independence is in their respective manifesto commitments.

It's really quite simple; if you are resolutely opposed to the idea of Scotland becoming an independent country, you should not place your X against any of these parties when you get to the voting booth!

 

[PaulMc7]

These people cast their votes in the full knowledge that the SNP's main agenda is independence. Similarly, anyone who cast their vote in favour of Alba or the Scottish Greens should be fully aware that independence is in their respective manifesto commitments.

It's really quite simple; if you are resolutely opposed to the idea of Scotland becoming an independent country, you should not place your X against any of these parties when you get to the voting booth!

I think it shows how bad our options actually are that it happens on both sides to be honest. I've known people who were campaigners for Scottish Labour and involved in their youth party but also really open about being pro-independence. I'd get it if this Scottish Labour were ultra left-wing as that would fit with some beliefs but like the UK Labour Party, I'd hardly call the Scottish version left-wing with Anas Sarwar around as leader.

If Scottish Labour had a different leader and were not necessarily pro-independence but instead pro-democracy I think they'd push SNP closer in an election than SNP diehards are willing to admit. A lot of people are fed up with the SNP hence the Alba creation so there are people there to gain as voters but even with Alba it's probably a case of right idea but wrong leader.

 

[102 fan]

This has probably been discussed before, but has Scottish Independence ever been costed?
Could Scotland be financially independent?

 

[Cloud Strife]

If Scottish Labour had a different leader and were not necessarily pro-independence but instead pro-democracy I think they'd push SNP closer in an election than SNP diehards are willing to admit.

If Scottish Labour came out as pro-referendum but anti-independence (and firmly against collaborating in any way with the Tories on a 'no' vote), they would do a lot of damage to the SNP. It's not a big secret that the SNP's rise and grip on power is maintained by Scottish Labour failing to offer an alternative, and their tendency to collude with the Tories rather than work with the SNP has also hurt them.

Could Scotland be financially independent?

Scotland would be a mid-sized EU country by population. I think we can afford it just fine.

 

[PaulMc7]

If Scottish Labour came out as pro-referendum but anti-independence (and firmly against collaborating in any way with the Tories on a 'no' vote), they would do a lot of damage to the SNP. It's not a big secret that the SNP's rise and grip on power is maintained by Scottish Labour failing to offer an alternative, and their tendency to collude with the Tories rather than work with the SNP has also hurt them.



Scotland would be a mid-sized EU country by population. I think we can afford it just fine.

I fully agree with you. Nobody shoots themselves more in the foot than Scottish Labour although Starmer's orders might be the reason for that.

 

[Cloud Strife]

I fully agree with you. Nobody shoots themselves more in the foot than Scottish Labour although Starmer's orders might be the reason for that.

It is really quite amazing to watch. Take places like Aberdeen, where Labour used to win comfortably. If I remember rightly, Labour held Aberdeen North from the 1930s until 2015, and now they're a distant third. Aberdeen is not a natural SNP city, but Labour completely neglected both their "maybe aye" working class electorate and the suburban "Not a chance I'm voting Tory" electorate. The end result is that the SNP can walk into places like Northfield and speak to working class voters about the failings of the UK government, while they can also walk into Kingswells and tell them how the UK government is forcing higher taxes on Scotland.

I keep saying this, but if Scottish Labour are to have a chance in the next general election, then they need to offer Scottish voters something more than "No". Devo-Max would be an obvious carrot to dangle, especially if they had legislation prepared and ready to go after the election. Or even be bold and offer a genuine UK confederation and an end to English majority rule, which would likely cause substantial amounts of SNP voters to switch to Labour.

 

[DynamicSpirit]

The end result is that the SNP can walk into places like Northfield and speak to working class voters about the failings of the UK government, while they can also walk into Kingswells and tell them how the UK government is forcing higher taxes on Scotland.

Eh? Are the the SNP seriously claiming that the UK Government is forcing higher taxes on Scotland? And if so, how on Earth do they square that with (1) that the UK Government spends more per person in Scotland than in the rest of the UK, effectively subsidised by rUK taxes, and (2) even despite (1), taxes in Scotland are still higher than in England because of the the SNP's own decision to keep taxes higher in order to pay for (even) more spending?

I'd have thought that, if anyone is 'forcing higher taxes on Scotland', it's the SNP.

 

[102 fan]

Scotland would be a mid-sized EU country by population. I think we can afford it just fine.

Does that mean Scotland would require EU support to survive? Would the taxes raised not be sufficient to cover its expenditure?

 

[MP33]

When Ian Blackford named a name in the house, I thought is that wise. There was a Labour MP who named someone working for a large employer in his constituency as being on the take. The man was in the spotlight, but not for long as the allegations were completely false.

 

[Falcon1200]

I'd have thought that, if anyone is 'forcing higher taxes on Scotland', it's the SNP.

Indeed, it is the SNP's choice (and I have to admit their right, as the elected albeit minority administration) to impose higher taxes so that things such as free prescriptions, free bus travel for young people, free university education etc can be provided; All these 'free' things do have to be paid for at some time, by someone!

Does that mean Scotland would require EU support to survive?

Who knows? I don't, and I very doubt the Nationalists do either. A key question, should they ever achieve their dream of independence and EU membership, is what would Scotland's financial position regarding the latter? ie would Scotland be a net contributor to or recipient of EU funding, and in either case, by how much? These are questions that would have to be answered, before any possible referendum re-run.

 

[102 fan]

Indeed, it is the SNP's choice (and I have to admit their right, as the elected albeit minority administration) to impose higher taxes so that things such as free prescriptions, free bus travel for young people, free university education etc can be provided; All these 'free' things do have to be paid for at some time, by someone!



Who knows? I don't, and I very doubt the Nationalists do either. A key question, should they ever achieve their dream of independence and EU membership, is what would Scotland's financial position regarding the latter? ie would Scotland be a net contributor to or recipient of EU funding, and in either case, by how much? These are questions that would have to be answered, before any possible referendum re-run.

Also, wouldn't Scotland have to reapply for EU membership? It wouldn't be an instant decision,so any fiancial status would have to be made clear.

Has it though?