More Delay for HS2, and how should we proceed?

[HSTEd]

It's almost as if they don't know how inflation works.

Get the bloody thing built, it'll never be cheaper than right now.

The real problem is they have no workable design for Euston.

Both previous designs show the characteristic ballooning costs of unbuildable designs.

 

[Fazaar1889]

I'm not sure where to put this but they've released an overview of HS2 in its current state. Not any new info tho.

This is Britain's new high-speed rail network

 

[Trainbike46]

The real problem is they have no workable design for Euston.

Both previous designs show the characteristic ballooning costs of unbuildable designs.

the issue is that the politicians can't agree on what design they want. there are two designs that are perfectly buildable which the politicians have rejected, but could have been build. I seriously doubt any future design will be cheaper or better than if they'd just gone ahead with the original 11-platform design

 

[LNW-GW Joint]

Presumably the "HS2 trains to Sheffield" map and text is based on completing the East Midlands HS2 link and the MML electrification to Sheffield.
Ironically it also means the London-East Midlands service will then go onto HS2 rather than the just-completed-wiring MML south of Trent.

 

[tomuk]

It's almost as if they don't know how inflation works.

Get the bloody thing built, it'll never be cheaper than right now.

It isn't about saving money overall it is about reducing in year cash spend.

 

[stuu]

The real problem is they have no workable design for Euston.

Both previous designs show the characteristic ballooning costs of unbuildable designs.

You have made this comment repeatedly, but not given any evidence to back it. There is nothing unbuildable about it, what there isn't so far is a design which meets all the criteria including the budget. That's a very different problem

 

[HSTEd]

You have made this comment repeatedly, but not given any evidence to back it. There is nothing unbuildable about it, what there isn't so far is a design which meets all the criteria including the budget. That's a very different problem

Budgets that balloon at every review point do not give confidence that the design is actually workable.

It's all very well comparing the claimed budget of that design to the claimed budget of this one, but those figures do not necessarily bear any real relation to the actual turnout cost at the end of the project.

There can be little confidence that the revised budget for the first or second design at the time they were cancelled was in any way reflective of the actual completion budget - which is likely to have been a major factor in their cancellation.

It's very easy to try and claim that the engineers are being undermined by politicians, but the reality is there have been many infrastructure projects where the engineers botched them without significant additional meddling from the politicians.
Berlin Brandenberg Airport or the Sellafield MOX plant come to mind as examples.

EDIT:

The second design, for example, managed to grow in cost by 30+% in short order. From £3.6bn originally to £4.8bn at the time it was axed.

EDIT #2:
And the second design actually decreased in apparent budget after it was first proposed, reaching a low of only £3.3bn in April 2021.
It then skyrocketed to £4.8bn in 23 months, incidentally after serious design work started.

 

[Trainbike46]

Budgets that balloon at every review point do not give confidence that the design is actually workable.

It's all very well comparing the claimed budget of that design to the claimed budget of this one, but those figures do not necessarily bear any real relation to the actual turnout cost at the end of the project.

There can be little confidence that the revised budget for the first or second design at the time they were cancelled was in any way reflective of the actual completion budget - which is likely to have been a major factor in their cancellation.

It's very easy to try and claim that the engineers are being undermined by politicians, but the reality is there have been many infrastructure projects where the engineers botched them without significant additional meddling from the politicians.
Berlin Brandenberg Airport or the Sellafield MOX plant come to mind as examples.

EDIT:

The second design, for example, managed to grow in cost by 30+% in short order. From £3.6bn originally to £4.8bn at the time it was axed.

There is zero evidence any future design would fare better than the two previous design. Specifically with the continous political meddling in HS2.

What is absolutely certain is that, if you build the same thing, with a few years of inflation on top, it will be more expensive.
Every design made from scratch also costs money.
I genuinely don't think any design that the politicians will accept will be cheaper than if they had just continued with the first design, with some minor adjustments.

 

[hwl]

EDIT #2:
And the second design actually decreased in apparent budget after it was first proposed, reaching a low of only £3.3bn in April 2021.
It then skyrocketed to £4.8bn in 23 months, incidentally after serious design work started.

The serious design work included adding provision for oversite development which wasn't part of the original scope part of the way through, which was a big part of the sky rocket!
(oversite development at Euston isn't included in the BCR analysis)

 

[chris2]

Well there's two possibly contradictory/possibly both correct pieces of information. There is a two-year "construction pause" to reduce government spending, and the statement that "Euston will be delivered alongside phase 2b in the early 2040s." It's not known if HS2 Ltd will continue with the current design (after spending £289mn on developing designs) or develop a third option during the "pause".

It's unclear if the "pause" includes boring the tunnel from Old Oak Common to Euston, which seemingly cannot be bored after Old Oak Common station is built. "Critical work" required to deliver the tunnel is continuing, so I guess it's probably ok.

Everything re Euston depends on the decisions of the next government after the general election, really.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 28 May 2023 ==

Oh yeah and the construction of the Handsacre link to the WCML beyond Birmingham is being delayed by two years as well, meaning HS2 will most likely open as a "captive railway" with a few trains per hour between Old Oak Common and Birmingham Curzon Street.

On the issue of whether the Euston tunnels will be paused, I saw this little nugget in a new article on OOC from the hs2 website...

The SCS JV team will then receive two further TBMs delivered to Old Oak Common, in 2024, which will be assembled in the station box, ready to bore the 5 mile Euston Tunnel.

https://mediacentre.hs2.org.uk/news...struction-at-hs2s-old-oak-common-station-site

 

[Nicholas Lewis]

The serious design work included adding provision for oversite development which wasn't part of the original scope part of the way through, which was a big part of the sky rocket!
(oversite development at Euston isn't included in the BCR analysis)

Several London mainline stations had oversite developments that were funded by developers in 1980's who also paid BR for the air rights. They wouldn't have been cheap to build either as the stations were operational and full of constraints.

Don't understand why a developer hasn't been found who will pay up front for airights as well as the construction costs for the oversite foundations.

 

[zwk500]

Several London mainline stations had oversite developments that were funded by developers in 1980's who also paid BR for the air rights. They wouldn't have been cheap to build either as the stations were operational and full of constraints.

Don't understand why a developer hasn't been found who will pay up front for airights as well as the construction costs for the oversite foundations.

Most of the Air rights developments in the 80s were office blocks, whereas today they tend more towards residential units, and the standards for todays residential units on noise and vibration are much stricter than those for 1980s offices.
Also the track layout determines where the supporting pillars can go, and that has important ramifications for how the structure can 1. be built and 2. stay up, especially as at least one proposal included over-track development on the throat.

 

[stuu]

Don't understand why a developer hasn't been found who will pay up front for airights as well as the construction costs for the oversite foundations.

Why would they? If they put money in now then they get nothing in return for at least 10 years, and possibly longer as the whole thing is at the whim of politicians. The return a private investor would expect in those circumstances would be astronomical

 

[Bald Rick]

Several London mainline stations had oversite developments that were funded by developers in 1980's who also paid BR for the air rights. They wouldn't have been cheap to build either as the stations were operational and full of constraints.

Don't understand why a developer hasn't been found who will pay up front for airights as well as the construction costs for the oversite foundations.

The economics is very different now. Both in terms of construction cost, and value realised. Also, the easier sites were done back then.

Construction costs have gone up for all types of construction, and not just railways.

Value - the Mayor‘s Community Infrastructure Levy (MCIL) takes value out of the development - it effectively means that “London” takes a share in land value planning gain from development. It’s £80/sqm (plus construction inflation since 2019) in Camden, more than twice that for office and retail use. This affects development at the margins, which is usually countered by building higher….

…. but the protected sightlines at Euston hamper that.

 

[LNW-GW Joint]

On the issue of whether the Euston tunnels will be paused, I saw this little nugget in a new article on OOC from the hs2 website...
https://mediacentre.hs2.org.uk/news...struction-at-hs2s-old-oak-common-station-site

Yes, but they will take their time to launch those TBMs, sometime in 2025 I think.
It does mean they are doing something useful with the pause-time, and it appears to be independent of the Euston station station project.

 

[tomuk]

The economics is very different now. Both in terms of construction cost, and value realised. Also, the easier sites were done back then.

Construction costs have gone up for all types of construction, and not just railways.

Value - the Mayor‘s Community Infrastructure Levy (MCIL) takes value out of the development - it effectively means that “London” takes a share in land value planning gain from development. It’s £80/sqm (plus construction inflation since 2019) in Camden, more than twice that for office and retail use. This affects development at the margins, which is usually countered by building higher….

…. but the protected sightlines at Euston hamper that.

The other issue AIUI with Euston is that the Treasury want to trouser the proceeds of any development therefore leaving the costs but not the benefits to DfT\HS2.

 

[Nicholas Lewis]

The economics is very different now. Both in terms of construction cost, and value realised. Also, the easier sites were done back then.

Not sure that building oversite as part of a new station construction can be more costly compared to the limited access that was given to construct above Cannon Street, CX etc relatively but anyhow I wasn't aware of the below which rather changes the financial equilibrium. What a buggers muddle we make everything these days.

Value - the Mayor‘s Community Infrastructure Levy (MCIL) takes value out of the development - it effectively means that “London” takes a share in land value planning gain from development. It’s £80/sqm (plus construction inflation since 2019) in Camden, more than twice that for office and retail use. This affects development at the margins, which is usually countered by building higher….

…. but the protected sightlines at Euston hamper that.

 

[snowball]

According to Modern Railways, July, p. 9, HS2 Chief Executive Mark Thurston told the House of Commons Transport Committee on 18 May that when OOC-Curzon Street opens, the initial service will be 3 trains an hour, "possibly two to Birmingham and one beyond".

The quote marks there are me quoting the magazine. Has anyone watched the video or read the transcript and are thus able to say whether this was his words rather than the magazine's interpretation? If so it would mean he expects delta junction to Handsacre to be ready on much the same timescale as OOC to Curzon Street.

 

[Grimsby town]

According to Modern Railways, July, p. 9, HS2 Chief Executive Mark Thurston told the House of Commons Transport Committee on 18 May that when OOC-Curzon Street opens, the initial service will be 3 trains an hour, "possibly two to Birmingham and one beyond".

The quote marks there are me quoting the magazine. Has anyone watched the video or read the transcript and are thus able to say whether this was his words rather than the magazine's interpretation? If so it would mean he expects delta junction to Handsacre to be ready on much the same timescale as OOC to Curzon Street.

Thurston definitely said that. I'd not take it as too much confirmation of anything though.

 

[LNW-GW Joint]

While the WCML connection at Handsacre is certainly "paused", there could well be a scenario where it catches up the Curzon St route.
The tunnelling (Northolt particularly) and OOC station projects have a lot of construction risks to navigate yet.
A lot depends on how much long-lead-time work is put into the Delta-Handsacre section (bridges/viaducts/underpasses etc)..

 

[The Planner]

While the WCML connection at Handsacre is certainly "paused", there could well be a scenario where it catches up the Curzon St route.
The tunnelling (Northolt particularly) and OOC station projects have a lot of construction risks to navigate yet.
A lot depends on how much long-lead-time work is put into the Delta-Handsacre section (bridges/viaducts/underpasses etc)..

Most of the big stuff has already started. The crossing of the WCML at Fulfen Wood. The crossing of the Lichfield - Wichnor line is currently under a 11 week blockade. The M42 bridge is done. Its only really Handsacre that hasn't got going.

 

[Nottingham59]

Its only really Handsacre that hasn't got going.

In a way that has some logic. Keeps open the option of dropping the Handsacre link altogether and prioritising the route to Crewe

 

[Dave_Cardboard]

As at June 2023, Google Earth's (Windows desktop version) imagery has updated to May/June 2023 for most of the area between Handsacre and Burton Green - though it just missed the HS2/WCML junction end of the Handsacre spur. One can see plenty of works happening such as that already mentioned by others and works on (for example) the A38 crossing, the (old and new) A5 bridges.

 

[Snow1964]

Looks like HS2 Crewe-Manchester is getting parliamentary committee time tomorrow (on Monday 3rd)

https://whatson.parliament.uk/committees/2023-07-03/

Seems to be 2 meetings in rooms 7 and 8,

Looks to be on parliamentlive.tv 4:15-4:30

Parliamentlive.tv

High Speed Rail (Crewe - Manchester) Bill Select Committee (Commons)

parliamentlive.tv

 

[Class 170101]

Most of the big stuff has already started. The crossing of the WCML at Fulfen Wood. The crossing of the Lichfield - Wichnor line is currently under a 11 week blockade. The M42 bridge is done. Its only really Handsacre that hasn't got going.

But why does the Lichfield line need an 11 Week Blockade yet the M42 needed nowhere near this? (11 days maybe)?

 

[The Planner]

But why does the Lichfield line need an 11 Week Blockade yet the M42 needed nowhere near this? (11 days maybe)?

The structure at Streethay is massive compared to the bridge over the M42. It goes under the railway and the A38.

 

[LNW-GW Joint]

There's also little traffic on the Lichfield-Wichnor line, and is easily diverted.

 

[Dave_Cardboard]

Looks like HS2 Crewe-Manchester is getting parliamentary committee time tomorrow (on Monday 3rd)

Phase 2B Bill Petition hearings has been under way for a while. Generally they hear petitions on Mondays and Tuesdays when Parliament is sitting. Access to previous sessions and things like evidence, transcripts, schedules and so on can be found via the Committee's dedicated web page...

https://committees.parliament.uk/committee/597/high-speed-rail-crewe-manchester-bill-select-committee-commons/

 

[Snow1964]

DfT has issued statement of some changes to HS2 Crewe-Manchester

The main changes are:

• realignment of the M56 junction 6
• lane and slip road works at junctions 19 and 20a of the M6
• relocation of the Palatine Road Vent Shaft to the former Hollies Convent School site near the Britannia Country House Hotel
• altered utility works to avoid or mitigate impacts on 5 ancient woodlands and sites of special scientific interest
• road works along the line of route between Crewe and Manchester Piccadilly station to reduce congestion and increase road capacity during construction and operation

The additional provision also includes works to reduce the risk of flooding, new footpath provision, changes to parking and taxi provision at Manchester Piccadilly station and added areas of planting to mitigate impacts on the environment.

Second additional provision added to the High Speed Rail (Crewe – Manchester) Bill

New provision proposes a number of changes to the powers of the bill to ensure that the best possible railway is built.

www.gov.uk

 

[snowball]

DfT has issued statement of some changes to HS2 Crewe-Manchester

Details now online. https://bills.parliament.uk/publications/52048/documents/3755

Too big for a meaningful quote.