More Delay for HS2, and how should we proceed?

[Bald Rick]

I recall one of the main constraints on an underground East-West station closer to St P was the basements for Francis Crick and British Library. Could those now have new facilities built on the land already dug up at Euston to free up the space for an underground station? This would obviously cost more, but maybe some of additional cost could be recouped by building on the land set aside for what would have been the new Euston station and throat, which would be significantly larger real estate footprint than the proposed overstation development.

In a word, no. The basements of the FCI and Library go down much, much deeper than the workings st Euston, and the cost of relocating them would make the current cost challenge at Euston look like small fry.

Also the development on those sites is constrained in the same way as at Euston itself, namely protected sight lines (which is why both those building are not very high).

 

[jayah]

FT reporting possibly more delays to HS2, with it potentially not being completed until 2045.

https://t.co/PEoDLQBB9A

Snippet below;

Delays aren't cost savings of course, any more than extending your mortgage in fact means paying the bank far more.

 

[jayah]

That's a fallacy. Just because something doesn't exist, doesn't mean it's not required.

I can "manage" without losing 30kg of weight, but I'd be in far better shape if I did.

Anything past 2035 is already on the never never. If the work is in fact paused it can't be on time or delayed.

Euston was always a mistake. It shouldn't have stopped in North London repeating the folly of the 1800s.

The French would have built HS2 from outside London to outside / around Birmingham.

The weak link is that anywhere not on CrossRail is now two changes from HS2 and Old Oak Common is too far out to make Willesden Jn / North Acton look attractive when the alternative is classic services to Euston.

 

[BRX]

Although the French LGVs often have stops outside the centre of provincial towns en route, they generally go to the centre of major cities and they all go in to the centre of Paris.

 

[LNW-GW Joint]

There are reports that the Crewe-Manchester HS2 Bill now going through parliament has been "delayed" into the next session, along with other legislation.
However, it was never due for completion in this session, and has simply been "rolled over" as planned, with cross-party support.

 

[zwk500]

Although the French LGVs often have stops outside the centre of provincial towns en route, they generally go to the centre of major cities and they all go in to the centre of Paris.

The actual high speed running doesn't though, by and large. LGVs normally dump you on to the classic lines for the urban sections (Lille is a notable exception).

 

[JamesT]

The actual high speed running doesn't though, by and large. LGVs normally dump you on to the classic lines for the urban sections (Lille is a notable exception).

Though given how busy Euston and Birmingham New Street are, even if the High Speed bit of HS2 finished on the outskirts of those cities, there would need to be significant construction to provide the capacity to run HS2's trains into those stations? So we're stuck with these costs that the French may not necessarily have incurred if they're not running everything full-tilt like we do.

 

[zwk500]

Though given how busy Euston and Birmingham New Street are, even if the High Speed bit of HS2 finished on the outskirts of those cities, there would need to be significant construction to provide the capacity to run HS2's trains into those stations?

yes, very much so. We would need two additional lines into Euston and Birmingham one way or another.

 

[stuu]

Though given how busy Euston and Birmingham New Street are, even if the High Speed bit of HS2 finished on the outskirts of those cities, there would need to be significant construction to provide the capacity to run HS2's trains into those stations? So we're stuck with these costs that the French may not necessarily have incurred if they're not running everything full-tilt like we do.

And of course in Paris the capacity was created by moving suburban services into the RER, which certainly wasn't cheap

 

[Luke McDonnell]

Just curious to what will happen when HS2 phase 1 is operational I know OOC was supposed to be the temporary terminus but as mentioned above why would there be any restriction to the HS2 classic compatible trains being able to run the last few miles into Euston on the classic line as I know that is done in France and the rest of Europe with HS lines I could understand the loading gauge restriction for the captive stock but as presumably the classic HS2 services are replacing the current Pendolino operated services why is there not at least some capacity for them to run into the existing Euston platforms? Also if that is not the case won't there be extra capacity at Euston so will there still be classic WCML services from e.g. the likes of Liverpool/Manchester e.g. would Liverpool get a HS2 service to OOC and a classic WCML service to Euston? Just thinking it will be a bit strange to terminate the classic compatible trains as OOC when they could use the classic lines for the last few miles especially if the services as I presume I supposed to replace the WCML services?

 

[swt_passenger]

Just curious to what will happen when HS2 phase 1 is operational I know OOC was supposed to be the temporary terminus but as mentioned above why would there be any restriction to the HS2 classic compatible trains being able to run the last few miles into Euston on the classic line

Theres no obvious surface route from the almost buried depth of the OOC station onto the GWML, and definitely not onto the WCML. The future tunnels between OOC and Euston are underneath the GWML reliefs (slows) and the Crossrail depot connections. So it’s impossible to get anywhere temporarily through OOC.

 

[zwk500]

Just thinking it will be a bit strange to terminate the classic compatible trains as OOC when they could use the classic lines for the last few miles especially if the services as I presume I supposed to replace the WCML services?

There is no physical connection to the classic lines at OOC.
In fact there is no physical connections to the classic line network south of Handsacre, except the maintenance access at Calvert.

 

[snowball]

There is no physical connection to the classic lines at OOC.
In fact there is no physical connections to the classic line network south of Handsacre, except the maintenance access at Calvert.

And the one at Handsacre can only be used by northbound trains leaving HS2 there for the classic network, or southbound trains joining HS2 there from the classic network.

 

[LNW-GW Joint]

It appears Mark Thurston, HS2 Ltd Chief Exec, will leave the job in September.
The news media say he has resigned, but I'm not sure he intended to stay any longer.
We'll have to see if there is any similarity to the Crossrail management departures in 2018.

MSN

HS2 Ltd’s chief executive has announced his resignation amid major delays and cost pressures for the high-speed railway project.
Mark Thurston, 56, will leave his role in September after six-and-a-half years leading the Government-owned company.
He said someone else should take over as the project transitions from construction to a “defining period” involving the installation of railway systems, such as track and signalling equipment.
HS2 Ltd’s latest annual report shows Mr Thurston was paid a salary of £617,300 in the 2021/22 financial year, when he also received benefits worth £5,400.
I have agreed with the board that someone else should lead the organisation and programme through what will be another defining period for HS2

 

[Fazaar1889]

It appears Mark Thurston, HS2 Ltd Chief Exec, will leave the job in September.
The news media say he has resigned, but I'm not sure he intended to stay any longer.
We'll have to see if there is any similarity to the Crossrail management departures in 2018.

MSN

Do you guys have high hopes for the future or are you anticipating a decline? I haven't followed a major railway construction before.

 

[LNW-GW Joint]

Do you guys have high hopes for the future or are you anticipating a decline? I haven't followed a major railway construction before.

I've followed major rail projects from the first WCML electrification scheme in the early 1960s.
There are always uneasy moments when the delivery period maybe lasts a decade, but the infrastructure usually gets delivered even if at higher cost and longer timescale.
But the railway has a poor record of project delivery, and most failures impact on other projects which get canned or never start - the latest being the CP5 electrification schemes where we are still suffering the fallout from ballooning costs and timescales.
I expect HS2 will reach Manchester one day, but at what cost to the industry and other desirable transport projects?
Having said that, the HS2 project is not a real railway yet, it's a mega-construction project until handed over to the operators.

 

[jfowkes]

Do you guys have high hopes for the future or are you anticipating a decline? I haven't followed a major railway construction before.

Short term, I'm expecting further decline. Not just HS2 related, as a whole the future seems bleak, with the Tories cutting everything and doing damage that will take years to undo.
Long term, I'm still hopeful that we will collectively see that rail needs to take on a much larger share of our transport needs if we want to seriously cut into pollution and congestion. I'm hopeful that a future government will restart the Eastern leg of HS2 as well.

 

[Nicholas Lewis]

Short term, I'm expecting further decline. Not just HS2 related, as a whole the future seems bleak, with the Tories cutting everything and doing damage that will take years to undo.

For sure Tories now on a scorched earth policy across all public facing entities. That said they are still providing considerable support to the industry to cover day to day operations and large capex but too much of that is being taken by HS2.

Long term, I'm still hopeful that we will collectively see that rail needs to take on a much larger share of our transport needs if we want to seriously cut into pollution and congestion. I'm hopeful that a future government will restart the Eastern leg of HS2 as well.

A future Labour govt will commit to it but it wont get built any quicker either the finances of the UK are now just too constrained after the covid borrowing binge

 

[HSTEd]

Long term, I'm still hopeful that we will collectively see that rail needs to take on a much larger share of our transport needs if we want to seriously cut into pollution and congestion. I'm hopeful that a future government will restart the Eastern leg of HS2 as well.

Realistically the bulk of the eastern leg of HS2 died with the Sheffield Meadowhall station.

Building a high speed line from south of Chesterfield all the way to Leeds solely for serving Leeds was never going to fly. If HS2 reaches Leeds it will be via Marsden.

 

[quantinghome]

Realistically the bulk of the eastern leg of HS2 died with the Sheffield Meadowhall station.

Building a high speed line from south of Chesterfield all the way to Leeds solely for serving Leeds was never going to fly. If HS2 reaches Leeds it will be via Marsden.

York? Newcastle? Regional services?

 

[71_OHE]

Just curious to what will happen when HS2 phase 1 is operational I know OOC was supposed to be the temporary terminus but as mentioned above why would there be any restriction to the HS2 classic compatible trains being able to run the last few miles into Euston on the classic line as I know that is done in France and the rest of Europe with HS lines I could understand the loading gauge restriction for the captive stock but as presumably the classic HS2 services are replacing the current Pendolino operated services why is there not at least some capacity for them to run into the existing Euston platforms? Also if that is not the case won't there be extra capacity at Euston so will there still be classic WCML services from e.g. the likes of Liverpool/Manchester e.g. would Liverpool get a HS2 service to OOC and a classic WCML service to Euston? Just thinking it will be a bit strange to terminate the classic compatible trains as OOC when they could use the classic lines for the last few miles especially if the services as I presume I supposed to replace the WCML services?

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 13 Jul 2023 ==

Regarding capacity at Euston, there is a perceived need for 11 HS2 platforms at London Euston, but this simply replicates the current chaotic practice, using platforms 1 to 7 and 13 to 16 for Avanti services

As an example of best practice, East Midlands Railways operates 2 trains per hour to each of 3 destinations, from just 4 platforms at St Pancras.

I suggest that the full HS2 service to Birmingham, Liverpool, Glasgow / Edinburgh, and Manchester can be operated from 6 platforms. It will have to be, from Old Oak Common, as the de facto terminus !

Would someone care to model this, with 3 x 400 metre island platforms, and all 6 faces signalled as A and B ?

 

[tomuk]

I suggest that the full HS2 service to Birmingham, Liverpool, Glasgow / Edinburgh, and Manchester can be operated from 6 platforms. It will have to be, from Old Oak Common, as the de facto terminus !

It can't and it won't be the service to OOC will be just 3tph to Birmingham. Although it hasn't been made clear parts of the Handsacre link north of Birmingham have also been paused just like Euston so Liverpool\Mancheser\Glasgow(not Edinburgh) will have to stay on WMCL for some time longer.

 

[HSTEd]

York? Newcastle? Regional services?

York and Newcastle could be reached with much less new track via Marsden, sufficiently rapidly to displace the existing services and thus achieve the desired objective.

If you include the York section of the line the eastern leg gets even longer after all!
Meanwhile, the track layout prevents any meaningful "regional" service over the Eastern Leg apart from trains to Birmingham, which can run via Manchester. No real northbound access out of Nottingham, no real northbound access out of Sheffield etc etc etc.

Would someone care to model this, with 3 x 400 metre island platforms, and all 6 faces signalled as A and B ?

With auto-reverse it could probably be done. But it would not look anything like an intercity operation seen in the UK today - not that HS2 will be anything like any intercity operation in the UK today.

I'd argue you'd end up with a solution that looks a lot more like Fenchurch STreet than Euston, but it is (as I said) probably doable.

Would mean cycling a train through each platform every 17 minutes with one platform in reserve, fast but not ridiculous.

 

[Peter Mugridge]

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 13 Jul 2023 ==

Regarding capacity at Euston, there is a perceived need for 11 HS2 platforms at London Euston, but this simply replicates the current chaotic practice, using platforms 1 to 7 and 13 to 16 for Avanti services

As an example of best practice, East Midlands Railways operates 2 trains per hour to each of 3 destinations, from just 4 platforms at St Pancras.

I suggest that the full HS2 service to Birmingham, Liverpool, Glasgow / Edinburgh, and Manchester can be operated from 6 platforms. It will have to be, from Old Oak Common, as the de facto terminus !

The East Midlands Railways services are much smaller trains than the HS2 ones; they can be disembarked, cleaned, prepared and boarded a lot faster.

 

[Grimsby town]

York and Newcastle could be reached with much less new track via Marsden, sufficiently rapidly to displace the existing services and thus achieve the desired objective.

If you include the York section of the line the eastern leg gets even longer after all!
Meanwhile, the track layout prevents any meaningful "regional" service over the Eastern Leg apart from trains to Birmingham, which can run via Manchester. No real northbound access out of Nottingham, no real northbound access out of Sheffield etc etc etc.

With auto-reverse it could probably be done. But it would not look anything like an intercity operation seen in the UK today - not that HS2 will be anything like any intercity operation in the UK today.

I'd argue you'd end up with a solution that looks a lot more like Fenchurch STreet than Euston, but it is (as I said) probably doable.

Would mean cycling a train through each platform every 17 minutes with one platform in reserve, fast but not ridiculous.

York to London via Leeds, Braford/Huddersfield and Manchester will be slower than via the ECML even with full NPR and a Manchester underground through station. 71 mins Euston to Manchester, a very generous 2 min dwell time at Manchester, 30 mins to Leeds and another generous 2 min dwell time, and then 15 mins to York gives a total of 120 mins.

 

[HSTEd]

71 mins Euston to Manchester, a very generous 2 min dwell time at Manchester, 30 mins to Leeds and another generous 2 min dwell time, and then 15 mins to York gives a total of 120 mins.

Which is pretty much a dead heat with the ECML, even with the comparatively slow 30-minute Manchester-Leeds journey time (a full HSL would be able to do it significantly faster, NPR themselves project 25 minutes with a detour to Bradford).

The absolute fastest train is 1hr51 London-York, a large number of the trains are slower than 2 hours today.....

 

[tomuk]

Which is pretty much a dead heat with the ECML, even with the comparatively slow 30-minute Manchester-Leeds journey time (a full HSL would be able to do it significantly faster, NPR themselves project 25 minutes with a detour to Bradford).

The absolute fastest train is 1hr51 London-York, a large number of the trains are rather slower than 2 hours today.....

The governments plan in the IPR is for Leeds\York\Newcastle and Edinburgh to be served by an enhanced ECML not NPR.

 

[HSTEd]

The governments plan in the IPR is for Leeds\York\Newcastle and Edinburgh to be served by an enhanced ECML not NPR.

Yes, but as we have learned repeatedly over the last couple of decades, what governments propose in their policy papers changes every five minutes.
If NPR is built, the bulk of Leeds to London traffic will almost inevitably reroute over it given that it will be faster and have much higher capacity.

Especially when/if the ECML upgrade programme suffers the fate of all modern railway upgrades and suffers from catastrophic budgetary and schedule collapse.

 

[tomuk]

If NPR is built, the bulk of Leeds to London traffic will almost inevitably reroute over it given that it will be faster and have much higher capacity.

If there are no through services and they remain on the ECML as is currently proposed then there will be no rerouting of traffic.

 

[HSTEd]

If there are no through services and they remain on the ECML as is currently proposed then there will be no rerouting of traffic.

NPR (the IRP version) + HS2's journey time advantage would be so enormous that people will start changing trains to go via Manchester.

71 minutes + ~33 minutes plus changing time is going to be under two hours easily.