More Delay for HS2, and how should we proceed?

[LNW-GW Joint]

It may only be in the Sun, reported by the BBC, but pressure is mounting to cap spend on HS2 because of high cost inflation.
Delay to the Euston section or to the whole project, is in the air, to keep within present annual budgets.
I'm not sure I believe the possibility of axing the Euston section, after all the demolition and enabling works have been done.
There may also be funding implications on other capital projects, eg NPR.
Jeremy Hunt is on his feet later today, so might address this.

HS2 will run through to London Euston, Chancellor Jeremy Hunt says

This follows reports that rising costs could mean the rail link might stop in the suburbs of west London.

www.bbc.co.uk

The government says it is committed to delivering the HS2 rail line to Manchester after a report the scheme may no longer reach central London.
The Sun reported that rising inflation and construction costs meant HS2 trains may terminate in the suburbs of west London instead.
The paper said bosses were considering pushing back its Euston terminus to 2038, or scrapping it completely.
The government has not denied the report.
The move would mean trains would run from a new hub at Old Oak Common, about 8km (five miles) away, and commuters would have to use the Elizabeth Line or Tube to travel to central London.
A two to five-year delay to the entire project is also being considered, the newspaper said.
A Department for Transport (DfT) spokesperson said the government remained committed to "delivering HS2 to Manchester, as confirmed in the Autumn Statement"

 

[PGAT]

There is a thread on it here:

Reports that HS2 Euston terminus may be delayed/cancelled

That has always been the case. OOC opened first with an initial limited service to Birmingham between 2029 and 2031, then some more services from OOC, and then a full service from Euston. For OOC to open before Euston has been the plan for several years now, but not all along, if I remember...

www.railforums.co.uk

 

[BananaRepublic]

The move would mean trains would run from a new hub at Old Oak Common, about 8km (five miles) away, and commuters would have to use the Elizabeth Line or Tube to travel to central London.

What Tube?
There is no Tube connection !
Also, reports are saying the Elizabeth Line is already heavily loaded, before all those thousands of new homes alongside the GWML come on stream.

 

[Railwaysceptic]

What Tube?
There is no Tube connection !
Also, reports are saying the Elizabeth Line is already heavily loaded, before all those thousands of new homes alongside the GWML come on stream.

Those reports, which are contested by Elizabeth Line regulars, refer to trains between Paddington and Reading. East of Paddington the trains are busy but not over crowded. When Old Oak Common opens, the trains to Shenfield which currently start at Paddington will begin their journey at Old Oak Common and will provide masses of extra capacity.

 

[jon0844]

FT reporting possibly more delays to HS2, with it potentially not being completed until 2045.

https://t.co/PEoDLQBB9A

Snippet below;

Britain’s planned High Speed 2 rail line faces further delays of up to four years and more cuts under two initiatives dubbed “Project Silverlight” and “Operation Blue Diamond” as ministers try to rein in its ballooning costs.

The extra delays to the country’s biggest infrastructure project would mean it would not be completed until as late as 2045 — 12 years later than originally planned.

Transport department officials have begun work on “Project Silverlight”, aimed at finding cost savings through a combination of delays and cuts in the first phase of the project that will link London to Birmingham, according to insiders.

They are also examining cost-cutting across the entire HS2 project to save money over the next five years under an initiative dubbed “Operation Blue Diamond”. Government officials said both reviews would run until the summer with no final decisions made before then.

Mark Harper, transport secretary, last week met John Glen, chief secretary to the Treasury, to discuss plans to cut billions of pounds from the department’s capital budget after 2025.

 

[snowball]

Not in the snippet, it also claims options being looked at include possible complete dropping of the Handsacre link (on which I would have thought some construction has started?) and/or the East Midlands Link.

 

[The Planner]

Not in the snippet, it also claims options being looked at include possible complete dropping of the Handsacre link (on which I would have thought some construction has started?) and/or the East Midlands Link.

Nothing of any note has been done at Handsacre. The plan should have been Crewe and binning off Handsacre a long time ago. Its mainly political with serving Stafford and Stoke that its still loitering.

 

[Tezza1978]

Given the commitment to build the entire route from Euston to Manc by Hunt and Sunak, this seems like another highly speculative article by someone with an agenda.

Undoubtedly they are looking at cutting costs /extending timetables to build to spread cost over more years, but Id be very surprised if they cut the Handsacre connection or the route to East Midlands Parkway. Too many benefits reduced for too little saving - particularly as the eastern leg is supposed to be parked/reimplemented in a different way rather than permanently shelved forever.

 

[D365]

Any savings by delaying the programme are always cancelled out by prolongation costs. It's insanity.

 

[deltic]

Given the commitment to build the entire route from Euston to Manc by Hunt and Sunak, this seems like another highly speculative article by someone with an agenda.

Undoubtedly they are looking at cutting costs /extending timetables to build to spread cost over more years, but Id be very surprised if they cut the Handsacre connection or the route to East Midlands Parkway. Too many benefits reduced for too little saving - particularly as the eastern leg is supposed to be parked/reimplemented in a different way rather than permanently shelved forever.

Not sure there are many benefits of the East Midlands Parkway branch and its already been kicked into the very long grass.

 

[zwk500]

I'd be surprised if Handsacre was dropped but it's not impossible, whereas I'd be very surprised if the East Midlands section wasn't already being chained to the very top shelf in a DfT filing cabinet.

Has the actual alignment at Crewe been announced in full? Is there anything there they may try and simplify by dumping it straight in south of Winsford or similar?

 

[JonathanH]

The problem with saying it 'won't be completed until 2045' is that it somewhat undefined what won't be completed until then.

Is that describing the date that the line is running all the way to Manchester and East Midlands Parkway? If it were to ever get truncated to Phase 1, a final date of 2045 is different than if Phase 1, 2a and 2b are completed by 2045?

Is HS2 complete when Phase 2b is complete?

 

[ABB125]

Prolonging the construction period in order to "reduce costs" is insanity, as far as I'm concerned. As we know, construction inflation is ridiculously high, so the longer it takes the more it costs. However, is does reduce the annual spend, since less is being done, which is all the Treasury cares about. Plus it keeps the highly-paid consultancy gravy train going for another few years...

 

[Nicholas Lewis]

This is typical whitehall politics leaks by DfT to put pressure on Treasury to release more funding. Lets be realistic these timelines are so far away a lot will change in between so i wouldn't get too het up just yet. Harper has big set piece lecture tonight at which the broader DfT policy on Rail will be announced lets see what that says on the matter.

 

[The Planner]

I'd be surprised if Handsacre was dropped but it's not impossible, whereas I'd be very surprised if the East Midlands section wasn't already being chained to the very top shelf in a DfT filing cabinet.

Has the actual alignment at Crewe been announced in full? Is there anything there they may try and simplify by dumping it straight in south of Winsford or similar?

It arrives at Basford Hall, not a lot else you can do with it until the tunnel is built as part of 2b.

 

[zwk500]

It arrives at Basford Hall, not a lot else you can do with it until the tunnel is built as part of 2b.

Ah, fair enough.

 

[HSTEd]

Perhaps they should just own up, put the scheme out of it's misery and stop pretending they are going to do anything beyond the work already started.

The programme has been collapsing under its own weight for years.

 

[Horizon22]

This is typical whitehall politics leaks by DfT to put pressure on Treasury to release more funding. Lets be realistic these timelines are so far away a lot will change in between so i wouldn't get too het up just yet. Harper has big set piece lecture tonight at which the broader DfT policy on Rail will be announced lets see what that says on the matter.

There’s also a reshuffle going on and HS2 increasingly seems to be the go-to in order to deflect news from elsewhere

 

[Jammy Dodger]

Perhaps they should just own up, put the scheme out of it's misery and stop pretending they are going to do anything beyond the work already started.

The programme has been collapsing under its own weight for years.

Why should they do that, look at how much work has already been done to Crewe! It would be a completely reckless choice to make, given this is critical national infrastructure that should have been in operation 40 years ago!

 

[zwk500]

Why should they do that, look at how much work has already been done to Crewe! It would be a completely reckless choice to make, given this is critical national infrastructure that should have been in operation 40 years ago!

@HSTEd was saying they should just finish it to Crewe and have done with it. It wouldn't be a completely reckless choice to make - in fact rather the opposite, but it would be economically self-defeating.

 

[Jammy Dodger]

New Civil Engineer are reporting the government is considering scrapping what's left of the eastern leg to East Midlands Parkway

HS2 | Eastern leg to Midlands could be scrapped and project delayed to cut costs | New Civil Engineer

The news comes as ministers have launched two cost-cutting initiatives for HS2 called “Project Silverlight” and “Operation Blue Diamond”, according to the

www.newcivilengineer.com

HS2 | Eastern leg to Midlands could be scrapped and project delayed to cut costs​

The government is considering scrapping the eastern leg of High Speed 2 between Birmingham and the East Midlands as it searches for ways to claw back money on the UK’s major infrastructure project.
The news comes as ministers have launched two cost-cutting initiatives for HS2 called “Project Silverlight” and “Operation Blue Diamond”, according to the Financial Times.

The scrapping of the remainder of the eastern leg - known as “HS2 East” - is being put forward as a possibility to save a significant sum, while delaying the project is also under consideration.

 

[Bletchleyite]

The way things are going we'll just get Phase 1 if we're lucky...

 

[Jammy Dodger]

The way things are going we'll just get Phase 1 if we're lucky...

Which would be genuinely disappointing. Sure, we are in a crisis (both socially and financially), however to get out of said crisis requires motivation and investment. An example of this is the Hoover Dam, which helped save the US from the great depression, and putting it on track to be the economic powerhouse it is today.

 

[Bletchleyite]

Which would be genuinely disappointing. Sure, we are in a crisis (both socially and financially), however to get out of said crisis requires motivation and investment. An example of this is the Hoover Dam, which helped save the US from the great depression, and putting it on track to be the economic powerhouse it is today.

Depending what it was it could be worse than nothing. If Phase 1 was only delivered to Old Oak, for instance, you'd just be moving the existing service to a less convenient station and not speeding anything up, thus overall lengthening journeys to everywhere but Birmingham itself.

I suppose to be fair it would remove 2tph from the WCML and from south Birmingham allowing local service improvements there, but it's a heck of an expensive way of doing it.

 

[GRALISTAIR]

The way things are going we'll just get Phase 1 if we're lucky...

Sadly you may be correct. In my lifetime anyway. (sigh)

 

[zwk500]

It would just be nice to have a firm plan that they stick to. This governing by drunken leaks doesn't help the government look any more on top of things, constructors know what they're meant to be focusing on, businesses to plan for HS2 opening or Passengers to know what services they're going to recieve.

If the eastern leg has to be shelved for the foreseeable, so be it. But tell people, once and for all, what HS2 will do and when. So that they can plan ahead. Governments may ignore anything beyond the next election but business and people want to know what their options are for 10 or 20 years if they're e.g. setting up offices or moving house.

 

[HSTEd]

It would just be nice to have a firm plan that they stick to. This governing by drunken leaks doesn't help the government look any more on top of things, constructors know what they're meant to be focusing on, businesses to plan for HS2 opening or Passengers to know what services they're going to recieve.

Making choices requires taking on the blame if that choice is later considered to be the "wrong one". People constantly demand "accountability" and the like which ultimately leads to noone wishing to ever make any decisions.

If the eastern leg has to be shelved for the foreseeable, so be it. But tell people, once and for all, what HS2 will do and when. So that they can plan ahead. Governments may ignore anything beyond the next election but business and people want to know what their options are for 10 or 20 years if they're e.g. setting up offices or moving house.

But the HS2 project is clearly broken beyond repair - the budget keeps climbing, the schedule keeps slipping and if the various whistleblowers are to be believed, noone really knows what it will cost.
On that basis noone knows what is achievable.

 

[MidlandMainlie]

I think what the government say on HS2 is becoming increasingly irrelevant, any parts that are likely to be cancelled or deferred are not going to be starting construction in the remaining lifetime of this parliament so (if the polls are to be believed) what Labour thinks on the project is more important to the future of HS2 as if they win they can simply reverse any decisions taken now once in power.

 

[LNW-GW Joint]

Axing the EM leg reduces the project to a WCML replacement south of Manchester or possibly only Crewe if the Manchester leg fails to get through parliament.
The rolling stock procurement can be reduced to Pendolino replacement.
But the baseline HS2 line will still be built leaving its future to the next (Lab?) government.
Who cares any more what back bench Tory MPs think?

 

[zwk500]

I think what the government say on HS2 is becoming increasingly irrelevant, any parts that are likely to be cancelled or deferred are not going to be starting construction in the remaining lifetime of this parliament so (if the polls are to be believed) what Labour thinks on the project is more important to the future of HS2 as if they win they can simply reverse any decisions taken now once in power.

Labour can easily let a contract for a part that was cancelled, but it's less easy to cancel a contract once it's signed (not impossible though).

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 7 Feb 2023 ==

Axing the EM leg reduces the project to a WCML replacement south of Manchester or possibly only Crewe if the Manchester leg fails to get through parliament.
The rolling stock procurement can be reduced to Pendolino replacement.
But the baseline HS2 line will still be built leaving its future to the next (Lab?) government.
Who cares any more what back bench Tory MPs think?

Sadly, the front bench does.