More Delay for HS2, and how should we proceed?

[LNW-GW Joint]

There appears to be a more digestible version of the changes on the HS2 web site, although I haven't read the detail:

Plans to extend the HS2 network to Manchester move forward

HS2 Ltd, the company building Britain’s new low-carbon high-speed railway, confirmed today (03 July 2023) that a second set of proposed changes to the High Speed Rail (Crewe – Manchester) Bill, has been introduced to Parliament.

mediacentre.hs2.org.uk

Information about the changes proposed in AP2, for each of the seven community areas, is published on the HS2 website.

• HS2 between Hough and Walley’s Green
• HS2 between Wimboldsley and Lostock Gralam
• HS2 between Pickmere and Agden and Hulseheath
• HS2 between Hulseheath and Manchester Airport
• HS2 between Davenport Green and Ardwick
• HS2 at Manchester Piccadilly
• HS2 at Annandale Depot

In some cases, the changes proposed in AP2 require additional land and powers. HS2’s community engagement team is already engaging with individuals and communities affected by the proposals. Directly affected parties can petition against the changes. The petitioning period will open tomorrow (4 July 2023) and continue until 15 August. More information about how to petition can be found on the Bill's Parliamentary web page.

Fascinating that the Annandale Depot (north of Quintinshill) is still part of the Crewe-Manchester Bill, despite the removal of the Golborne Link in AP1.

 

[Danfilm007]

There appears to be a more digestible version of the changes on the HS2 web site, although I haven't read the detail:

Plans to extend the HS2 network to Manchester move forward

HS2 Ltd, the company building Britain’s new low-carbon high-speed railway, confirmed today (03 July 2023) that a second set of proposed changes to the High Speed Rail (Crewe – Manchester) Bill, has been introduced to Parliament.

mediacentre.hs2.org.uk

Fascinating that the Annandale Depot (north of Quintinshill) is still part of the Crewe-Manchester Bill, despite the removal of the Golborne Link in AP1.

Does Annandale give the flexibility to do the Golborne Link in the future if it's wanted/needed?

 

[LNW-GW Joint]

Does Annandale give the flexibility to do the Golborne Link in the future if it's wanted/needed?

Well, it's intended to be the northern home of HS2 rolling stock, based on serving both Glasgow and Edinburgh.
The Golborne link provided the speed and capacity to move the principal Edinburgh service to HS2 rather than the ECML, using 400m trains dividing at Carlisle.
Also in the plan was an upgrade to Preston and Carlisle stations to take the 400m trains, but that didn't need a parliamentary Bill to deliver.
The depot, if built, is required for the 400m solution, but probably not if nothing longer than 200m trains run north of Crewe (with the direct Edinburgh service staying on the ECML).
But the government will not confirm that the rest of the 400m solution is still planned.
Alternatives to Golborne are under investigation, but there is little confidence that anything as good will be found (for the original cost of Golborne).

 

[Danfilm007]

Well, it's intended to be the northern home of HS2 rolling stock, based on serving both Glasgow and Edinburgh.
The Golborne link provided the speed and capacity to move the principal Edinburgh service to HS2 rather than the ECML, using 400m trains dividing at Carlisle.
Also in the plan was an upgrade to Preston and Carlisle stations to take the 400m trains, but that didn't need a parliamentary Bill to deliver.
The depot, if built, is required for the 400m solution, but probably not if nothing longer than 200m trains run north of Crewe (with the direct Edinburgh service staying on the ECML).
But the government will not confirm that the rest of the 400m solution is still planned.
Alternatives to Golborne are under investigation, but there is little confidence that anything as good will be found (for the original cost of Golborne).

Right thank you!

 

[Dan G]

The Public Accounts Committee is very clear today that the current expected completion date for a Euston station is not before 2041. HS2 ltd, DfT had plenty of opportunities to say otherwise.

Does anyone still believe otherwise? That this government hasn't put Euston back to the 2040s?

Of course a new government might take a different approach – perhaps recognising that the cheapest time to build something is always now – but 2040s is certainly this government's plan.

 

[Xavi]

The Public Accounts Committee is very clear today that the current expected completion date for a Euston station is not before 2041. HS2 ltd, DfT had plenty of opportunities to say otherwise.

Does anyone still believe otherwise? That this government hasn't put Euston back to the 2040s?

Of course a new government might take a different approach – perhaps recognising that the cheapest time to build something is always now – but 2040s is certainly this government's plan.

Not true, but you can never rule out further pauses or other delays.

 

[davews]

When I heard it on the news this morning I thought I had heard 2031, but didn't have my hearing aids in... In 2041 I shall be the grand age of 92 so guess not too worried. It is sad with all the work going on elsewhere the final date is so far away.

 

[Killingworth]

When I heard it on the news this morning I thought I had heard 2031, but didn't have my hearing aids in... In 2041 I shall be the grand age of 92 so guess not too worried. It is sad with all the work going on elsewhere the final date is so far away.

No wonder a lot of people are thinking, and many are saying, if we can manage without it until 2041 do we need it at all.

 

[jfowkes]

No wonder a lot of people are thinking, and many are saying, if we can manage without it until 2041 do we need it at all.

That's a fallacy. Just because something doesn't exist, doesn't mean it's not required.

I can "manage" without losing 30kg of weight, but I'd be in far better shape if I did.

 

[ChrisC]

When I heard it on the news this morning I thought I had heard 2031, but didn't have my hearing aids in... In 2041 I shall be the grand age of 92 so guess not too worried. It is sad with all the work going on elsewhere the final date is so far away.

Very much the same with me although I will only be 86 in 2041! In the early days of the planning of HS2 I was quite enthusiastic about it and was looking forward to travelling on it during my retirement. Now I’ve lost all interest in it realising that I will probably never see it or travel on it. Originally the eastern spur was planned to be constructed within 5 miles of my home but of course that is now not going to happen, certainly in my lifetime.

 

[The Planner]

Very much the same with me although I will only be 86 in 2041! In the early days of the planning of HS2 I was quite enthusiastic about it and was looking forward to travelling on it during my retirement. Now I’ve lost all interest in it realising that I will probably never see it or travel on it. Originally the eastern spur was planned to be constructed within 5 miles of my home but of course that is now not going to happen, certainly in my lifetime.

That is on the basis of travelling to Euston on it. You could do Curzon St to OOC prior to that.

 

[Nicholas Lewis]

That is on the basis of travelling to Euston on it. You could do Curzon St to OOC prior to that.

Poster will be in his mid 70's by then given the inept HS2 still can't put a firmer opening window after two years worth of construction. Stephenson was appointed resident engineer in late 1826 to Liver & Manchester Railway construction was fully under way in 1827 and the line was opened to traffic in 1830 although directors expected to be completed by end of 1829 they were dealing with one or two new challenges!!

Building a high speed line is well understood task across many European countries and we are using conventional technology so it should be possible to forecast with more accuracy than a four year opening window by now. The civil works are going well to plan with few surprises so far yet it looks highly likely that building the railways systems will be the cause of delay here.

 

[The Planner]

Building a high speed line is well understood task across many European countries and we are using conventional technology so it should be possible to forecast with more accuracy than a four year opening window by now. The civil works are going well to plan with few surprises so far yet it looks highly likely that building the railways systems will be the cause of delay here.

Why? They don't interact with anything else in phase one apart from possibly Handsacre, which is the only signaling handover at speed.

 

[12LDA28C]

Poster will be in his mid 70's by then given the inept HS2 still can't put a firmer opening window after two years worth of construction. Stephenson was appointed resident engineer in late 1826 to Liver & Manchester Railway construction was fully under way in 1827 and the line was opened to traffic in 1830 although directors expected to be completed by end of 1829 they were dealing with one or two new challenges!!

If Stephenson had had to contend with the current level of Government interference and ineptitude back then, we'd probably still be waiting for the Liverpool - Manchester railway to open.

 

[Nicholas Lewis]

Why? They don't interact with anything else in phase one apart from possibly Handsacre, which is the only signaling handover at speed.

Why? Because they have yet to let the main railway systems contracts which should have been announced in Q1 we are now in Q3.

If Stephenson had had to contend with the current level of Government interference and ineptitude back then, we'd probably still be waiting for the Liverpool - Manchester railway to open.

To be fair the L&M promoters faced a two year crawl trying to get the bill through HoP but granted once it was approved it was down to the L&M to get on with it. HS2 are largely being left to their own to build phase 1 other than Greg Smith putting his two penneth in.

 

[The Planner]

Why? Because they have yet to let the main railway systems contracts which should have been announced in Q1 we are now in Q3.

Which is more than likely due to HS2 not having a confirmed date of when they hand over from the civils.

 

[LNW-GW Joint]

If Stephenson had had to contend with the current level of Government interference and ineptitude back then, we'd probably still be waiting for the Liverpool - Manchester railway to open.

The historic comparator is surely the London & Birmingham, with Robert Stephenson as Chief Engineer, between the exact same places.
The L&B took 5 years to build after getting its Act through parliament in 1833, which combined two earlier proposed schemes.
During construction the cost increased from £2.5m to £5m (with funding mostly raised from Liverpool shareholders).
Land cost twice as much as expected, and the Camden-Euston section, not in the original scheme, was difficult.
Kilsby tunnel cost £280K instead of the initial estimate of £120K, and delayed the full opening of the line.
Euston-Boxmoor opened in July 1837, and extended to Tring that October.
By April 1838 the line was open to Denbigh Hall, and at the other end Curzon St-Rugby was opened.
A coach connection between Denbigh Hall and Rugby ran until the whole line opened in September 1838.

In parallel, the Grand Junction Railway was being built between Curzon St and Newton Jn (Earlestown today), to link London, Birmingham, Liverpool and Manchester.
The GJ got its Act on the same day as the L&B in 1833, but opened a year earlier in 1837.
It's already 6 years since HS2 phase 1 got its Act in January 2017, and 4 years since February 2021 for the Phase 2a Act authorising the route to Crewe.
However full (government) funding was not committed until January 2021, although enabling work had started earlier.

Though 190 years apart, and technologically worlds apart, the projects do have some similarities!
But in the 1830s it was all at private cost, apart from the impact on landowners and residents along the route.

 

[12LDA28C]

The historic comparator is surely the London & Birmingham, with Robert Stephenson as Chief Engineer, between the exact same places.
The L&B took 5 years to build after getting its Act through parliament in 1833, which combined two earlier proposed schemes.
During construction the cost increased from £2.5m to £5m (with funding mostly raised from Liverpool shareholders).
Land cost twice as much as expected, and the Camden-Euston section, not in the original scheme, was difficult.
Kilsby tunnel cost £280K instead of the initial estimate of £120K, and delayed the full opening of the line.
Euston-Boxmoor opened in July 1837, and extended to Tring that October.
By April 1838 the line was open to Denbigh Hall, and at the other end Curzon St-Rugby was opened.
A coach connection between Denbigh Hall and Rugby ran until the whole line opened in September 1838.

In parallel, the Grand Junction Railway was being built between Curzon St and Newton Jn (Earlestown today), to link London, Birmingham, Liverpool and Manchester.
The GJ got its Act on the same day as the L&B in 1833, but opened a year earlier in 1837.
It's already 6 years since HS2 phase 1 got its Act in January 2017, and 4 years since February 2021 for the Phase 2a Act authorising the route to Crewe.
However full (government) funding was not committed until January 2021, although enabling work had started earlier.

Though 190 years apart, and technologically worlds apart, the projects do have some similarities!
But in the 1830s it was all at private cost, apart from the impact on landowners and residents along the route.

Very interesting! It seems costs escalating massively during construction is nothing new, what a surprise.

 

[vic-rijrode]

Very interesting! It seems costs escalating massively during construction is nothing new, what a surprise.

From reading the history of dozens (if not hundreds) of railways being built in Victorian times - virtually every one cost more than (and in many cases far more than) the estimates used when submitting the authorising Bill to Parliament. So nothing new then.

Of course in the very early days (1830s to 40s) there was little empirical knowledge on construction, but even after that costs were very much under estimated.

 

[Nicholas Lewis]

Which is more than likely due to HS2 not having a confirmed date of when they hand over from the civils.

Thurston reported that civil works are on target so doesn't say much for their project management if they can't plan the whole programme of works. The railway system contractors will need time to complete detailed designs, procure large volumes of materials and mobilise on site and this is why tenders were issued some time ago but so far only the S&C contract has been awarded.

 

[LNW-GW Joint]

Of course in the very early days (1830s to 40s) there was little empirical knowledge on construction, but even after that costs were very much under estimated.

Thomas Brassey, the contractor who built many of the early railways (including Penkridge viaduct on the GJ) reputedly kept all the costings and subcontractor dealings in his head.
He was also trusted as an employer/partner and was not tainted by the corruption of the early railway promoters like George Hudson.

 

[Nicholas Lewis]

From reading the history of dozens (if not hundreds) of railways being built in Victorian times - virtually every one cost more than (and in many cases far more than) the estimates used when submitting the authorising Bill to Parliament. So nothing new then.

But we are aware that projects of this magnitude come with risks and repeating myself there is large body of experience in Europe to draw upon to get the estimates robust and understand where the risks are so we shouldn't get surprises. So far the costs for the phase 1 since last reset to the higher level are being controlled and contingency drawdown has plenty of headroom currently so putting the inflation risk to one side HS2 phase 1 is doing well. How inflation is to be managed hasn't been made clear ie is it with contractors, HS2 or shared in some way.

 

[Xavi]

How inflation is to be managed hasn't been made clear ie is it with contractors, HS2 or shared in some way.

HS2 taking the inflation risk, but Treasury refusing to increase its cash budgets.

 

[vic-rijrode]

But we are aware that projects of this magnitude come with risks and repeating myself there is large body of experience in Europe to draw upon to get the estimates robust and understand where the risks are so we shouldn't get surprises. So far the costs for the phase 1 since last reset to the higher level are being controlled and contingency drawdown has plenty of headroom currently so putting the inflation risk to one side HS2 phase 1 is doing well. How inflation is to be managed hasn't been made clear ie is it with contractors, HS2 or shared in some way.

Good Lord, use the "large body of experience in Europe to draw upon" - in the country that invented modern railways?

Cue frothing at the mouth from certain sectors of our society, not to mention politicians or DfT...

 

[Mikw]

If and when this opens hardlt anybody will be able to afford to ride on it the way things are going. Shame.

 

[Nicholas Lewis]

If and when this opens hardlt anybody will be able to afford to ride on it the way things are going. Shame.

Oh i doubt that it will be subsidised irrespective of whose in power no one wants a white elephant. They can also reduce capacity out of Euston to encourage a change.

 

[LNW-GW Joint]

Good Lord, use the "large body of experience in Europe to draw upon" - in the country that invented modern railways?

The four main civils contracts for HS2 are with consortia each with a mix of "UK" and "EU" companies.
Balfour Beatty, Costain, Macalpine and Kier are in there with Eiffage, Bouygues, Vinci, Skanska, Strabag, Ferrovial and others who have delivered HSL construction in France, Spain, Italy etc.
Most of the UK contractors have multinational operations anyway.
The bridge-building girder for Colne Valley viaduct was designed by Bouygues from their experience building a road viaduct in Hong Kong.
There's no place for narrow nationalism in major infrastructure works today.
Contracts have to be open to competition.

 

[vic-rijrode]

The four main civils contracts for HS2 are with consortia each with a mix of "UK" and "EU" companies.
Balfour Beatty, Costain, Macalpine and Kier are in there with Eiffage, Bouygues, Vinci, Skanska, Strabag, Ferrovial and others who have delivered HSL construction in France, Spain, Italy etc.
Most of the UK contractors have multinational operations anyway.
The bridge-building girder for Colne Valley viaduct was designed by Bouygues from their experience building a road viaduct in Hong Kong.
There's no place for narrow nationalism in major infrastructure works today.
Contracts have to be open to competition.

I am well aware of this - my comment was rather tongue in cheek I'm afraid. I am the last person to harbour narrow nationalism having worked for most of my life for American companies who view "Europe" (i.e. EU) as a country and cannot understand why UK has declared UDI from it...

 

[MPW]

I recall one of the main constraints on an underground East-West station closer to St P was the basements for Francis Crick and British Library. Could those now have new facilities built on the land already dug up at Euston to free up the space for an underground station? This would obviously cost more, but maybe some of additional cost could be recouped by building on the land set aside for what would have been the new Euston station and throat, which would be significantly larger real estate footprint than the proposed overstation development.

 

[jfowkes]

They can also reduce capacity out of Euston to encourage a change.

Well yes, that's rather the point. Reduce high speed services down the WCML, put them on HS2 instead.
No point building a high speed railway and not using it for your high speed services.