He's guessing, unless he's on the ground in Spain and has access to the investigation. And we can safely assume that he's not and doesn't.In almost all railway accidents, the immediate cause (what happened) is quickly apparent and can be deduced by most railway professionals or even in many cases by enthusiasts, from a few clear pictures of the aftermath. The main job of investigators is far more complex - to establish the root causes - ‘why did it happen?’…
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Without access to the investigation that's exactly what it is...It's hardly uninformed speculation given who the speculation is from.