West Coast Franchise speculation

[The Ham]

Nope, it is First:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-44312684

Thank you

 

[gsnedders]

So it's basically irrelevant and shouldn't affect their WCP bid then? (The article seems to suggest it will).

I can't see the original article (I don't have a Times subscription, and it's only showing me a preview), but I would be surprised if it did. The most likely way for it to affect their bid was if the new CEO changed strategy when it came to rail.

 

[pt_mad]

Stoke didn't have an announcer as such, platform staff did it between them. But some preferred it more than others!

Auto announcements now at Crewe too, so seems to be spreading.

Wonder whether it was a condition of the direct award that they had ATOS auto announcing installed and utilised?

I can't see the original article (I don't have a Times subscription, and it's only showing me a preview), but I would be surprised if it did. The most likely way for it to affect their bid was if the new CEO changed strategy when it came to rail.

If you scroll up a few pages back the original poster quoted the whole article by the looks of it.

 

[HH]

The main FirstGroup losses are on Greyhound in the US (a one-off restructuring cost of £277m), and £106m provision on TPE over the rest of the franchise.
GWR and SWR are making "solid contributions" to profits.
Tim O'Toole is being replaced as CEO.
Nothing to panic about overall.

Tim O'Toole getting the boot suggests that it is seen as pretty serious. SWR hasn't reached crunch point yet and GWR continues to experience very poor performance (not all their own fault), which looks unlikely to change for some time. Nor are their US problems over IMO. Judging by the share price, the City has experienced some level of panic.

 

[EE Andy b1]

As HS2 (High Speed 2) works are now getting under way in one form or another i thought it time to share my thoughts and what i would like to see on the initial opening of HS2 phase 1 to Birmingham Curzon Street and re-joining the WC (West Coast) just North of Lichfield.

At that time WCP (West Coast Partnership) should have the following rolling stoke to utilise.

Class 390 EMU x 56 (35 x 11 car & 21 x 9 car)
Class 221 DEMU x 20 (All 5 car)
Class ??? EMU x 54-60 (Classic compatible) 200 metre length.

Some sort of Hybrid traction may come along at some point to replace 221s which would make sense but time will tell.

Was just thinking of some sort of frequency ex London Euston in the Down direction(heading North) so there would be a similar frequency in the opposite direction varying by time of day.

Euston - Manchester Piccadilly 4 TPH (Trains per hour). 2 via HS2, 1 via Crewe & 1 via Stoke-on-Trent. 2 via WC, 1 via Crewe & 1 via Stoke, and beyond to Blackpool North via Bolton at certain times.

Euston - Birmingham 6 TPH. 3 via HS2 to Curzon St., 1 via HS2 to New St, 1 via WC to New St and beyond maybe to Shrewsbury/Chester.

Euston - Liverpool 2 TPH. 1 via HS2, 1 via WC.

Euston - Blackpool North. 6 TPD (Trains per day). 2 via HS2, 4 via WC, certain trains could be via Manchester & Bolton.

Euston - Edinburgh/Glasgow. 2 TPH. 1 via HS2, 1 via WC. Certain trains could go via Manchester, Bolton, Wigan North Western.

Euston- Shrewsbury. 1 TPH via WC. Could extend to Chester at certain times.

Euston - Chester/North Wales. 2 TPH, 2 via WC. Could still split at Chester for Wrexham/Shrewsbury & Bangor/Holyhead maybe Llandudno, alternating through the day at certain times.

Would there be a need for a North Wales to Scotland via Warrington Bank Quay service? Maybe, maybe not, would be interesting.

I realise it is early days but new Rolling stock needs to be in testing in 2024 and initial opening of HS2 phase 1 is end of 2026 and time does move on rather quickly at times and as others have said being new railway there is no reson to think it will be late!

As i say these are just thoughts i've had on having a few beers on another hot day, i have no proper idea if the sums would add up.

Interesting times whether good or bad.

 

[edwin_m]

I think they would broadly want to keep the trains per hour the same and my suspicion would be that they would cut over one route in its entirety at a time. The HS2 services are so much quicker that if, for example, 2TPH to Manchester went via HS2 and 2TPH by the existing route then the latter would be of little interest to end-to-end passengers so the effective frequency would be less. Also there is unlikely to be capacity for extra trains at somewhere like Stockport where trains via either route would have to pass through. And there is no track connection planned between HS2 and NR in the Birmingham area, except by shunting through the depot, so you can't run to New Street via HS2.

My guess would be to start with 3TPH to Birmingham only, because they are fully contained on HS2 infrastructure so there is relatively little to go wrong while everyone gets used to things. There is no capacity conflict for Birmingham so the existing 3TPH could continue to run for a while and would be a useful fallback if it all goes wrong. Then the other routes would transfer, with the corresponding existing services replaced at the same time by whatever the new service pattern is on the existing route.

 

[driver_m]

I wouldn't bet against a Holyhead - Scotland service. Given the links between the two, and should the open skies agreement go badly wrong immediately post-brexit there could be an opportunity for something there. Especially when you consider how many travel to London on our services with the cheap rail-sail deals (a large number of people will still not fly) and also if a border rears its ugly head again in Norn Iron.

 

[pt_mad]

As HS2 (High Speed 2) works are now getting under way in one form or another i thought it time to share my thoughts and what i would like to see on the initial opening of HS2 phase 1 to Birmingham Curzon Street and re-joining the WC (West Coast) just North of Lichfield.

At that time WCP (West Coast Partnership) should have the following rolling stoke to utilise.

Class 390 EMU x 56 (35 x 11 car & 21 x 9 car)
Class 221 DEMU x 20 (All 5 car)
Class ??? EMU x 54-60 (Classic compatible) 200 metre length.

Some sort of Hybrid traction may come along at some point to replace 221s which would make sense but time will tell.

Was just thinking of some sort of frequency ex London Euston in the Down direction(heading North) so there would be a similar frequency in the opposite direction varying by time of day.

Euston - Manchester Piccadilly 4 TPH (Trains per hour). 2 via HS2, 1 via Crewe & 1 via Stoke-on-Trent. 2 via WC, 1 via Crewe & 1 via Stoke, and beyond to Blackpool North via Bolton at certain times.

Euston - Birmingham 6 TPH. 3 via HS2 to Curzon St., 1 via HS2 to New St, 1 via WC to New St and beyond maybe to Shrewsbury/Chester.

Euston - Liverpool 2 TPH. 1 via HS2, 1 via WC.

Euston - Blackpool North. 6 TPD (Trains per day). 2 via HS2, 4 via WC, certain trains could be via Manchester & Bolton.

Euston - Edinburgh/Glasgow. 2 TPH. 1 via HS2, 1 via WC. Certain trains could go via Manchester, Bolton, Wigan North Western.

Euston- Shrewsbury. 1 TPH via WC. Could extend to Chester at certain times.

Euston - Chester/North Wales. 2 TPH, 2 via WC. Could still split at Chester for Wrexham/Shrewsbury & Bangor/Holyhead maybe Llandudno, alternating through the day at certain times.

Would there be a need for a North Wales to Scotland via Warrington Bank Quay service? Maybe, maybe not, would be interesting.

I realise it is early days but new Rolling stock needs to be in testing in 2024 and initial opening of HS2 phase 1 is end of 2026 and time does move on rather quickly at times and as others have said being new railway there is no reson to think it will be late!

As i say these are just thoughts i've had on having a few beers on another hot day, i have no proper idea if the sums would add up.

Interesting times whether good or bad.

Isn't the theoretical plan for 3tph to Manchester via HS2?

Also Blackpool may end up having to be better served after 2027 if these GNWR services get underway next year. As there'll be circa 9 or 10 services going North if that goes ahead. And the application only lasts until HS2 opens AFAIK. So they'd be losing quite a bit of fast service if it was pulled back to just 4 down WCP services. Suspect the council may demand more if these open access services last all the way until 2026 and then are dropped with no replacement.


On a wider note I wouldn't expect the service via HS2 to be drastically more frequent than it is today in 2026. Perhaps one or two cities might receive one more train per hour. But as I understand it the whole point of HS2 is to release capacity on the WCML for freight paths and for the classic route to become more of an inter regional type route but retaining the tilting stock as long as practical.
I wouldn't expect for example 2 or 3tph to Manchester via HS2 and 2 or 3 tph to Manchester via the classic WCML. I suppose they could run a Liverpool, a Chester and a Manchester along the Trent Valley every hour in each direction doing all main town stations.

 

[krus_aragon]

Euston- Shrewsbury. 1 TPH via WC. Could extend to Chester at certain times.

Euston - Chester/North Wales. 2 TPH, 2 via WC. Could still split at Chester for Wrexham/Shrewsbury & Bangor/Holyhead maybe Llandudno, alternating through the day at certain times.

Would there be a need for a North Wales to Scotland via Warrington Bank Quay service? Maybe, maybe not, would be interesting.

I agree with the aspiration of 2tph to Chester and 1tph to Shrewsbury, and increasing the Holyhead extensions to a regular 1tph.

With regard to Chester-Wrexham-Shrewsbury, the new Wales & Borders franchise will be providing 2tph along this line from 2022, which will use all the capacity available between Wrexham and Chester, so there may not be much room for West Coast services. (Similarly, W&B will be providing 3tph from Chester to Llandudno Junction, and 2tph to Bangor.)

As a further note, these expansions would need additional DEMU stock. If we're stuck with just the current SuperVoyagers, such aspirations will have to be curtailed.

 

[LNW-GW Joint]

It might not be until Crewe is reached by HS2 in 2027, but isn't the plan now to run 400m HS2 trains to Crewe and split for Liverpool/Scotland?
Stoke will also be served on a loop to Crewe.
Then there's the Birmingham-Manchester/Scotland services routed via HS2 to Crewe (impacting XC services).
I'm sure these will be phased, but WCP will have to work all this out with DfT, HS2 Ltd and NR.
The southern WCML will also want its benefits from more capacity for local/regional services (which will impact current LNWR services).
Through services to Chester/North Wales have never been included in HS2's plans, they are only interested in electric classic-compatible services.
Euston-Blackpool via Manchester/Bolton seems unlikely, given the constraints through the Oxford Road corridor (unless the station upgrades go ahead).
Things will be easier to understand when the WCP franchise is awarded.

 

[Camden]

Shouldn't the talk around HS2 be stored in its special little cupboard away from the real stuff?

https://www.railforums.co.uk/forums/future-high-speed-rail.165/

 

[NotATrainspott]

There doesn't need to be much duplication of HS2 services on the WCML, even after adding many new stops. End-to-end passengers are going to use HS2. If you're an intermediate passenger, e.g. Manchester to Milton Keynes, then there's no reason your train has to go to Euston. You'd be better served by a train that then heads onto EWR down to Oxford and Reading. Meanwhile, the path from Milton Keynes to Euston can be used by a dedicated commuter service, even if on the same stopping pattern. EWR provides a fairly useful split location between London commuter and longer-distance regional and InterCity services after HS2 opens, and redirecting trains means opening up fast links which aren't available today (e.g. Northampton/Trent Valley to the GWML). A same-station interchange would be available at Milton Keynes and other EWR band stations onto the commuter trains which serve the smaller stops heading into London for the limited number of passengers interested in those journeys.

 

[LNW-GW Joint]

Shouldn't the talk around HS2 be stored in its special little cupboard away from the real stuff?
https://www.railforums.co.uk/forums/future-high-speed-rail.165/

Until the WCP franchise is awarded and the diggers have moved in on the main line work, maybe.
After that, it becomes part of the real world.
It's a bit like the BBC News web site which has main headings for UK and World, but can't bring itself to have a category called Europe.

 

[The Planner]

Euston - Manchester Piccadilly 4 TPH (Trains per hour). 2 via HS2, 1 via Crewe & 1 via Stoke-on-Trent. 2 via WC, 1 via Crewe & 1 via Stoke, and beyond to Blackpool North via Bolton at certain times.

All the Manchester HS2 trains are expected to go via Crewe.

Euston - Birmingham 6 TPH. 3 via HS2 to Curzon St., 1 via HS2 to New St, 1 via WC to New St and beyond maybe to Shrewsbury/Chester.

No way of getting to New St from HS2 whatsoever.

Euston - Liverpool 2 TPH. 1 via HS2, 1 via WC.

2 via HS2 was the last plan

Euston - Blackpool North. 6 TPD (Trains per day). 2 via HS2, 4 via WC, certain trains could be via Manchester & Bolton.

No HS2 trains will get to Blackpool

Would there be a need for a North Wales to Scotland via Warrington Bank Quay service? Maybe, maybe not, would be interesting.

Possibly, Liverpool to Scotland will get some sort of improvement I would imagine.

And there is no track connection planned between HS2 and NR in the Birmingham area, except by shunting through the depot, so you can't run to New Street via HS2.

You won't be able to do that either, no connection at all at Washwood Heath.

Stoke will also be served on a loop to Crewe.

Last I heard was Stoke is served by a Macclesfield HS2 terminator.

 

[edwin_m]

It might not be until Crewe is reached by HS2 in 2027, but isn't the plan now to run 400m HS2 trains to Crewe and split for Liverpool/Scotland?
Stoke will also be served on a loop to Crewe.
Then there's the Birmingham-Manchester/Scotland services routed via HS2 to Crewe (impacting XC services).
I'm sure these will be phased, but WCP will have to work all this out with DfT, HS2 Ltd and NR.
The southern WCML will also want its benefits from more capacity for local/regional services (which will impact current LNWR services).
Through services to Chester/North Wales have never been included in HS2's plans, they are only interested in electric classic-compatible services.
Euston-Blackpool via Manchester/Bolton seems unlikely, given the constraints through the Oxford Road corridor (unless the station upgrades go ahead).
Things will be easier to understand when the WCP franchise is awarded.

The Scotland trains are intended to run through Crewe as double sets, ultimately non-stop between London and wherever they split for Glasgow and Edinburgh but that may not be until Phase 2B. None of this is confirmed yet if I recall correctly the plan is for the Crewe splitters to be a Liverpool with a Preston and a second Liverpool which might just detach a set to return south. By doing this they reduce by one the number of paths further south, which makes room for an hourly train from London to Stafford, Stoke and Macclesfield. So there's scope to run the set that turns back at Crewe somewhere else, with Chester or beyond being the obvious candidate if it was electrified. No reason why the Preston working couldn't continue to Blackpool - perhaps there or Lancaster in alternate hours?

There doesn't need to be much duplication of HS2 services on the WCML, even after adding many new stops. End-to-end passengers are going to use HS2. If you're an intermediate passenger, e.g. Manchester to Milton Keynes, then there's no reason your train has to go to Euston. You'd be better served by a train that then heads onto EWR down to Oxford and Reading. Meanwhile, the path from Milton Keynes to Euston can be used by a dedicated commuter service, even if on the same stopping pattern. EWR provides a fairly useful split location between London commuter and longer-distance regional and InterCity services after HS2 opens, and redirecting trains means opening up fast links which aren't available today (e.g. Northampton/Trent Valley to the GWML). A same-station interchange would be available at Milton Keynes and other EWR band stations onto the commuter trains which serve the smaller stops heading into London for the limited number of passengers interested in those journeys.

That would require electrification of EWR or yet more bi-modes on a part of the network that doesn't really need them otherwise. There is also a need to provide for journeys between London and the non-HS2 stations north of MK so there will still be plenty of through trains between Euston and Rugby or beyond. I rather doubt there will be a through train between Manchester and MK because the three London-Manchester paths are replaced by three HS2 paths and unless digital railway achieves miracles there won't be capacity for anything more though Stockport. It would be possible after Phase 2B by taking a HS2 service from Manchester and changing at Crewe or either Birmingham station, but how it working in phases 1 or 2A depends on the West Coast franchise service pattern.

 

[Wilts Wanderer]

Until the WCP franchise is awarded and the diggers have moved in on the main line work, maybe.
After that, it becomes part of the real world.
It's a bit like the BBC News web site which has main headings for UK and World, but can't bring itself to have a category called Europe.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world/europe

 

[LNW-GW Joint]

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world/europe

That's the problem, Europe is considered just another part of the World (the Brexiteers view).
Off topic though.

We are also in danger of duplicating the HS2 thread here.
The WCP franchise is at least an attempt to draw it all together.

 

[pt_mad]

Discussion of possible initial WCP diagrams for the opening of HS2 isn't off topic because it's part of the 'West Coast Franchise, ' about to be awarded. Seems the ideal place to discuss possible destinations, frequencies and calling patterns as part of the WCP as far as I can see?

Regards trains on the WCML running into East West Rail can't see that as part of the WCP. Maybe in the following franchise. Bit it's not likely to be mentioned in the franchise announcements for the WCP when that's awarded is it?

Get the feeling they want to work with the next franchisee to establish the initial calling patterns for phase one and then everything is up for debate in due course, following the initial introduction of the services via HS2.

 

[EE Andy b1]

I think they would broadly want to keep the trains per hour the same and my suspicion would be that they would cut over one route in its entirety at a time. The HS2 services are so much quicker that if, for example, 2TPH to Manchester went via HS2 and 2TPH by the existing route then the latter would be of little interest to end-to-end passengers so the effective frequency would be less. Also there is unlikely to be capacity for extra trains at somewhere like Stockport where trains via either route would have to pass through. And there is no track connection planned between HS2 and NR in the Birmingham area, except by shunting through the depot, so you can't run to New Street via HS2.

My guess would be to start with 3TPH to Birmingham only, because they are fully contained on HS2 infrastructure so there is relatively little to go wrong while everyone gets used to things. There is no capacity conflict for Birmingham so the existing 3TPH could continue to run for a while and would be a useful fallback if it all goes wrong. Then the other routes would transfer, with the corresponding existing services replaced at the same time by whatever the new service pattern is on the existing route.

I must admit that this makes more sense, so basically at first keeping the normal West Coast timetable and running limited service along HS2 and then they have time to iron out any problems on HS2 and get Drivers and traincrew properly trained up, on traction & routes, before stepping up the timetable and moving services off the West Coast to release paths for more freight, semi-fasts and stoppers.

I must admit i didn't realise there would be no connection between HS2 & Birmingham New Street. A missed opportunity, maybe!

 

[edwin_m]

I must admit i didn't realise there would be no connection between HS2 & Birmingham New Street. A missed opportunity, maybe!

In my view it would be a good investment to spend very little ensuring there is a straight bit of track somewhere around Water Orton so that if needed in the future a flying junction onto the Derby line could be put in. That would allow HS2 sets to continue into New Street and on to Wolverhampton/Shrewsbury or (the big opportunity in my view) towards Bristol. But the big fat fly in the ointment is that those destinations would need to be electrified.

 

[Domh245]

But the big fat fly in the ointment is that those destinations would need to be electrified.

Or the classic compatible sets (or portion of) could be the magic B word!

 

[EE Andy b1]

Or the classic compatible sets (or portion of) could be the magic B word!

Ahhh but don't RENFE in Spain have such Ultra high speed trains that are Bi-mode, both electric and diesel but maybe not at 225mph on electric!!
RENFE are part bidders for the WCP. :-0

 

[LNW-GW Joint]

Ahhh but don't RENFE in Spain have such Ultra high speed trains that are Bi-mode, both electric and diesel but maybe not at 225mph on electric!!
RENFE are part bidders for the WCP. :-0

Indeed they do, Renfe Alvia 730s (Talgo 250 family). They even gauge-change as well, and run on 3kV DC as well as 25kV AC.
The same units were involved in the Santiago de Compostela crash in 2013.
They are Talgo tilting units (Talgo are bidding for HS2 rolling stock), similar to their Renfe electric class 130 and limited to 250km/h on the LAV.
I don't know what feature forces the speed limitation - it might be the gauge changer or tilt rather than the bi-mode capability.
They have a diesel power car coupled behind the electric power car, and with (I think) 11 short trailer cars.
They normally run as double units and are then monster trains.
Speed apparently is 250km/h on LAV standard gauge, 220km/h on 3kV broad gauge, and 180km/h on diesel (but don't need to achieve anything like that on the non-wired route, more like 120km/h).

I travelled on one from Santiago to Medina del Campo a couple of years ago. It was 2 sets, one from Ferrol/Santiago, the other from Vigo, joining at Ourense.
It switched from electric to diesel at Ourense for the slow-speed (and highly scenic) mountain run to Medina (reverse, gauge change), and then back to electric for the LAV run to Madrid.
Today they switch power and make the gauge change at Zamora as the LAV has been extended, and there is no need for a reversal.
Switching traction modes was a cumbersome affair while stationary and is nothing like "on the fly" like 800s.

In a year or two the whole line will be an electrified LAV, so there will be no need for the bi-mode capability.​

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/RENFE_Class_730

The RENFE Class 730 or S-730[4] (Spanish: Serie 730 de Renfe, manufacturer's designation Talgo 250) is a high-speed dual-gauge, dual-voltage and hybrid (electric and diesel) trainset consisting of 11 Talgo VII tilting coaches and two power cars, used on Alvia services.[5][6] The class have been nicknamed patitos (ducklings/little ducks), due to the shape of the train nose.[7] They are an upgraded version of RENFE Class 130, in order to extend high-quality services to parts of Spain not on the electrified network, so these hybrid trains can run with both electric and diesel power.

While a remarkable technical achievement, I get the impression the 730s will not last long on the Renfe network.
Bi-mode routes have been cut back to the Santiago one, which is due to be a new LAV within a couple of years, and can in any case be reached on an electric route via Leon.
The disaster at Santiago can't have helped the public perception of the trains.

 

[EE Andy b1]

Errr RENFE not part bidders my mistake but Talgo are bidding like you say for Rolling stock.

Those RENFE Alvia 730s sound like a quite capable go almost anywhere unit but obviously had problems then but not all there own making and technology has moved on but whether something like these would be acceptable or capable here is another matter.

Once again the best bet would be more electrification but that's for another time/forum/government.

 

[pt_mad]

I must admit i didn't realise there would be no connection between HS2 & Birmingham New Street. A missed opportunity, maybe!

Isn't there going to be a light rail type thing as in like a tram type connection between the two?

 

[EE Andy b1]

Isn't there going to be a light rail type thing as in like a tram type connection between the two?

I believe there will be but i was thinking that the new HS2 line when built had a connection into the Derby line, Washwood Heath way, to connect into New Street, but not.

 

[edwin_m]

Isn't there going to be a light rail type thing as in like a tram type connection between the two?

The plan is to build a junction on the Metro line at the corner of Bull Street and Corporation Street and carry on down Bull Street to the HS2 station and beyond. However I think it's a simple junction facing towards Snow Hill so there is no curve to allow trams direct between New Street and Curzon Street.

 

[route101]

Booked onto the 840am Glasgow to Euston this Friday , was like 10 available seats on the seatmap in standard , ive never seen it so full. Is this service usually rammed ?

 

[aylesbury]

Every time I travel Glasgow MK or reverse its always busy think more people realising that the train is better than the plane.Four hours traveling in comfort with no hassle boarding no officious person telling you take your shoes etc off and taking your bottle of water from you as you go through security.

 

[All Line Rover]

Booked onto the 840am Glasgow to Euston this Friday , was like 10 available seats on the seatmap in standard , ive never seen it so full. Is this service usually rammed ?

Yes. The Glasgow fasts are VTWC's most heavily loaded - consistently heavily loaded - services. I wouldn't consider travelling in standard on them throughout. First is still busy, often full (from Warrington, sometimes earlier), but even if full it doesn't feel cramped if you manage to get a single seat.