West Coast Franchise speculation

[pt_mad]

This seems possible, as the current WMT franchise will run until about 2026 at least, and extensions/direct awards cannot be ruled out. Splitting the WMT franchise into the WMR part, possibly with some additional services by then such as on the South Staffordshire Line which is currently being reopened and possibly Birmingham to Leicester, and then putting the LNR and non-HS2 part of VTWC into a new West Coast franchise, seems an attractive option.

However, what kind of complications could that then lead to, in terms of differentiating the 350 and 390/Voyager services, which would still have some speed differential? Would we end up in the same ticketing complexities as currently exist within the TSGN franchise?

I don't know how they do it with GWR local services running to Didcot etc but potentially couldn't that be the sort of model?

I suppose they could have as a total example something like West Coast Trains. And then within that brand the routes either West Coast express or West Coast Connect etc. And mark certain tickets West Coast Connect Only etc etc. I'm sure that's totally doable and would be very simple for the West Coast TOC at the time if needed.

I mean let's say the WCP was renewed in its initial form into the 2030s. West Midlands Railway had been split off in 2027 to the WMCA. And LNR was run as a separate franchise. The WCP franchise holder at that time would have to juggle all the HS2 services at that point, of which there could be a lot by say 2029, with the WCML classic services whatever they turn out to be then .And then you'd have a sort of half sized franchise in the form of LNR.

Whereas taking HS2 out by say 2030 is going to allow that operator to concentrate on purely its high-speed operations, continued construction and introduction of further phases of HS2 which would presumably be an extensive operation by then, probably the premier in the country with huge footfall.

You'd then have the WCML express services and we've no idea what these will be in 2030 do we? But let's say there's half the frequency of tilting trains on the classic lines as there is now. Add in the mini LNR as one franchise and you have a decent sized franchise going forward with 110/125mph and inter regional and commuter services, the bulk serving London and/or Liverpool. And it'd allow possibilities then such as putting 390s on some Trent Valley services or on some fast Northampton to Londons or Birmingham Liverpool's on certain services.

The only ones I'd be unsure about are such routes as Birmingham to Scotland if they were still running on the WCML classic.

 

[edwin_m]

However, what kind of complications could that then lead to, in terms of differentiating the 350 and 390/Voyager services, which would still have some speed differential? Would we end up in the same ticketing complexities as currently exist within the TSGN franchise?

If the long-distance passengers are mostly using HS2 then there may no longer be a need for general price differentials between the Pendolino and other services. If there is still a need then some kind of "Pendolino supplement" could be introduced for walk-up tickets.

 

[edwin_m]

The only ones I'd be unsure about are such routes as Birmingham to Scotland if they were still running on the WCML classic.

On current plans Birmingham-Scotland goes onto HS2 at Phase 2B, at which there are unlikely to be any classic trains from Euston north of Preston and perhaps not even north of Liverpool. So the residual Euston Classic franchise would be rather more limited geographically than the current one - I'd suggest Manchester to Scotland stays with TPE or some other northern-based franchise.

 

[pt_mad]

On current plans Birmingham-Scotland goes onto HS2 at Phase 2B, at which there are unlikely to be any classic trains from Euston north of Preston and perhaps not even north of Liverpool. So the residual Euston Classic franchise would be rather more limited geographically than the current one - I'd suggest Manchester to Scotland stays with TPE or some other northern-based franchise.

In that case it makes even more sense. Combine classic WCML with LNR and the route map stretches from London to Preston with spurs off. Have HS2 do the high-speed as a separate franchise after late 2020s.


One thing though if there are no services Birmingham to Scotland other than HS2, where will customers from the classic WCML connect into Scotland and North of England services? Crewe? Will the HS2 Glasgow services call at Crewe? If travelling Milton Keynes to Scotland will it require connections at Curzon Street or Crewe? Will customers be able to travel Midlands to Scotland avoiding HS2 if say HS2 fares are more expensive? Or would this require interchange at Manchester?

I'm thinking classic West Coast will still have trains running Euston to Chester and North Wales. Perhaps there could be a more frequent North Wales service after 2027?

 

[driver_m]

I would certainly hope NW has a full hourly service post HS2. There would be no reason not to. Whether they all go to Holyhead would be debatable, but certainly Llandudno and Bangor especially could argue their case for an hourly service .Could also stimulate the potential for repoenings to Caernarfon and stations like Queensferry. Some would say there's not the demand and they'd probably be right, but give it chance to grow and it almost certainly would. Maybe also places currently unserved on the West Coast such as Mid Wales, West Cumbria, Southport, Morecambe and East Lancs towns could eventually get services on the old lines

 

[ForTheLoveOf]

I don't know how they do it with GWR local services running to Didcot etc but potentially couldn't that be the sort of model?

I suppose they could have as a total example something like West Coast Trains. And then within that brand the routes either West Coast express or West Coast Connect etc. And mark certain tickets West Coast Connect Only etc etc. I'm sure that's totally doable and would be very simple for the West Coast TOC at the time if needed.

I mean let's say the WCP was renewed in its initial form into the 2030s. West Midlands Railway had been split off in 2027 to the WMCA. And LNR was run as a separate franchise. The WCP franchise holder at that time would have to juggle all the HS2 services at that point, of which there could be a lot by say 2029, with the WCML classic services whatever they turn out to be then .And then you'd have a sort of half sized franchise in the form of LNR.

Whereas taking HS2 out by say 2030 is going to allow that operator to concentrate on purely its high-speed operations, continued construction and introduction of further phases of HS2 which would presumably be an extensive operation by then, probably the premier in the country with huge footfall.

You'd then have the WCML express services and we've no idea what these will be in 2030 do we? But let's say there's half the frequency of tilting trains on the classic lines as there is now. Add in the mini LNR as one franchise and you have a decent sized franchise going forward with 110/125mph and inter regional and commuter services, the bulk serving London and/or Liverpool. And it'd allow possibilities then such as putting 390s on some Trent Valley services or on some fast Northampton to Londons or Birmingham Liverpool's on certain services.

The only ones I'd be unsure about are such routes as Birmingham to Scotland if they were still running on the WCML classic.

Obviously the issue here is that you then end up in the same position as we currently have with the TSGN franchise. With one legal entity and franchisee operating different brands, whose 'brand specific' tickets are rejected on the 'wrong' brand.

It either requires an alternative working of the restrictions - such as that employed by GWR, where there are no or fewer evening peak restrictions out of Paddington on the stoppers, but where timetable changes cause problems - or you have to update the NRCoT and TSA to allow for brand specific tickets to be introduced.

 

[edwin_m]

One thing though if there are no services Birmingham to Scotland other than HS2, where will customers from the classic WCML connect into Scotland and North of England services? Crewe? Will the HS2 Glasgow services call at Crewe? If travelling Milton Keynes to Scotland will it require connections at Curzon Street or Crewe? Will customers be able to travel Midlands to Scotland avoiding HS2 if say HS2 fares are more expensive? Or would this require interchange at Manchester?

The fast Glasgow/Edinburgh services may stop at Birmingham Interchange but I've not seen any suggestion of it calling at Crewe. In any case it won't unless a northern link from Crewe Hub to HS2 is added, otherwise it would have to stay on the classic line through Warrington.

 

[pt_mad]

The fast Glasgow/Edinburgh services may stop at Birmingham Interchange but I've not seen any suggestion of it calling at Crewe. In any case it won't unless a northern link from Crewe Hub to HS2 is added, otherwise it would have to stay on the classic line through Warrington.

Oh right couldn't this make things worse for a lot of the Midlands stations then if customers want to go from x in the Trent Valley to Glasgow? Would they have to get an inter regional service as far as Warrington to connect into HS2? Meaning HS2 Glasgow services or some of would need to call at Warrington.

If they stop the Glasgow at Birmingham Interchange will customers be able to connect there from different places in the Midlands and would that mean train from New St to Interchange and onto a Glasgow or train from New St to Birmingham International and then get over to Birmingham Interchange?

Connecting at Warrington is going to mean potentially tilting trains are going to need to make more regular calls in places like the Trent Valley, Milton Keynes and Stafford for them to be able to get up to Warrington in half decent time to get onto HS2 then?

Would have e thought a HS2 service from Curzon Street to Glasgow would be well worthwhile given something's going to be needed to replace the current West Mids to Glasgow and Edinburgh and calling only at Interchange from London may not be enough.

 

[jagardner1984]

Does anyone think there is potential for there to be open access services, potentially using some Pendolinos ? Presumably there will be quite a lot of paths up for grabs ...

Using railway Crystal Balls, how viable does 2026 seem for HS2 services to be running ... ?

I.e. could the WCP need to exist on current service provision for longer, and does that present capacity issues ?

 

[The Ham]

Does anyone think there is potential for there to be open access services, potentially using some Pendolinos ? Presumably there will be quite a lot of paths up for grabs ...

Using railway Crystal Balls, how viable does 2026 seem for HS2 services to be running ... ?

I.e. could the WCP need to exist on current service provision for longer, and does that present capacity issues ?

I would suggest that most of the spare parts are likely to be used by metro services around the large cities rather than as long distance paths. As by doing so there could be two or three new services for each path released rather than just one.

Also with significantly slower journey times to London most of the customers for any such open access operator would be on providing access between large cities and nearby towns, rather than between the large cities. Given the more limited nature of such a service the probably isn't the market to justify it.

 

[Class 170101]

As HS2 (High Speed 2) works are now getting under way in one form or another i thought it time to share my thoughts and what i would like to see on the initial opening of HS2 phase 1 to Birmingham Curzon Street and re-joining the WC (West Coast) just North of Lichfield.

At that time WCP (West Coast Partnership) should have the following rolling stoke to utilise.

Class 390 EMU x 56 (35 x 11 car & 21 x 9 car)
Class 221 DEMU x 20 (All 5 car)
Class ??? EMU x 54-60 (Classic compatible) 200 metre length.

Some sort of Hybrid traction may come along at some point to replace 221s which would make sense but time will tell.

Was just thinking of some sort of frequency ex London Euston in the Down direction(heading North) so there would be a similar frequency in the opposite direction varying by time of day.

Euston - Manchester Piccadilly 4 TPH (Trains per hour). 2 via HS2, 1 via Crewe & 1 via Stoke-on-Trent. 2 via WC, 1 via Crewe & 1 via Stoke, and beyond to Blackpool North via Bolton at certain times.

Euston - Birmingham 6 TPH. 3 via HS2 to Curzon St., 1 via HS2 to New St, 1 via WC to New St and beyond maybe to Shrewsbury/Chester.

Euston - Liverpool 2 TPH. 1 via HS2, 1 via WC.

Euston - Blackpool North. 6 TPD (Trains per day). 2 via HS2, 4 via WC, certain trains could be via Manchester & Bolton.

Euston - Edinburgh/Glasgow. 2 TPH. 1 via HS2, 1 via WC. Certain trains could go via Manchester, Bolton, Wigan North Western.

Euston- Shrewsbury. 1 TPH via WC. Could extend to Chester at certain times.

Euston - Chester/North Wales. 2 TPH, 2 via WC. Could still split at Chester for Wrexham/Shrewsbury & Bangor/Holyhead maybe Llandudno, alternating through the day at certain times.

Would there be a need for a North Wales to Scotland via Warrington Bank Quay service? Maybe, maybe not, would be interesting.

I realise it is early days but new Rolling stock needs to be in testing in 2024 and initial opening of HS2 phase 1 is end of 2026 and time does move on rather quickly at times and as others have said being new railway there is no reson to think it will be late!

As i say these are just thoughts i've had on having a few beers on another hot day, i have no proper idea if the sums would add up.

Interesting times whether good or bad.

I don't see WCP running a service between Shrewsbury and Crewe / Chester, only towards Birmingham New Street and the current WCML route to Euston.

Manchester via the Classic route would still need 2tph, one via Crewe and one via Stoke. and likewise Birmingham New Street to Euston would probably be 2tph to serve Watford, Milton Keynes, Rugby, Coventry and Birmingham International with one carrying onto Wolverhampton and possibly Shrewsbury. The second may also head north as the all stations link to Scotland (like today).

Services to Liverpool to the WCML would remain but with more stops south of Crewe towards Rugby to improve connectivity. Holyhead probably wouldn't change unless the DfT removed it as a requirement from the WCML franchise altogether but being a diesel route services won't be allowed via HS2.

 

[HSTEd]

I don't see WCP running a service between Shrewsbury and Crewe / Chester, only towards Birmingham New Street and the current WCML route to Euston.

Manchester via the Classic route would still need 2tph, one via Crewe and one via Stoke. and likewise Birmingham New Street to Euston would probably be 2tph to serve Watford, Milton Keynes, Rugby, Coventry and Birmingham International with one carrying onto Wolverhampton and possibly Shrewsbury. The second may also head north as the all stations link to Scotland (like today).

Services to Liverpool to the WCML would remain but with more stops south of Crewe towards Rugby to improve connectivity. Holyhead probably wouldn't change unless the DfT removed it as a requirement from the WCML franchise altogether but being a diesel route services won't be allowed via HS2.

You don't need to provide 2tph to Manchester and 2tph to Birmingham over the classic route to just pick up intermediate passengers.
This admittedly crude drawing demonstrates how few trains are actually required, and very few places lose out drastically (Coventry has the benefit of relatively nearby HS2 station)

 

[AndrewE]

You don't need to provide 2tph to Manchester and 2tph to Birmingham over the classic route to just pick up intermediate passengers.
This admittedly crude drawing demonstrates how few trains are actually required, and very few places lose out drastically (Coventry has the benefit of relatively nearby HS2 station)

I guess you haven't asked any "intermediate passengers" about that then! The 1 train an hour from [Coventry, Brum and] Crewe alternately to Glasgow and Edinburgh is totally inadequate already. I see that the diagram doesn't even consider northbound services from Liverpool and Manchester. Aren't they "WCML classic route" services? No Liverpool - Crewe - WCML stations - London trains at all, either! What if you want to go from Liverpool to Rugby, MK or Northampton?
"Tough ****, we are organising this from and for the benefit of London, can't you understand that?"

 

[B&I]

I guess you haven't asked any "intermediate passengers" about that then! The 1 train an hour from [Coventry, Brum and] Crewe alternately to Glasgow and Edinburgh is totally inadequate already. I see that the diagram doesn't even consider northbound services from Liverpool and Manchester. Aren't they "WCML classic route" services? No Liverpool - Crewe - WCML stations - London trains at all, either! What if you want to go from Liverpool to Rugby, MK or Northampton?
"Tough ****, we are organising this from and for the benefit of London, can't you understand that?"

Careful now. Suggesting that Liverpool receives, or might receive in the future, an inadequate train service is the fastest way to get a thread locked on here

 

[Bletchleyite]

Careful now. Suggesting that Liverpool receives, or might receive in the future, an inadequate train service is the fastest way to get a thread locked on here

MK is growing fast and is set to catch up Liverpool's population within maybe 30-50 years. So "classic line" services are more likely to be oriented to that than to the traditional destinations.

 

[The Planner]

I really wouldn't take much notice of any diagrams, nothing is decided.

 

[HSTEd]

I guess you haven't asked any "intermediate passengers" about that then! The 1 train an hour from [Coventry, Brum and] Crewe alternately to Glasgow and Edinburgh is totally inadequate
already.

If that is so then perhaps the XC Manchester trains could be extended to Glasgow and Edinburgh, alternating in opposition to the ICWC Birmingham service.

I see that the diagram doesn't even consider northbound services from Liverpool and Manchester.

Note that the title of that file is "ICWC Residual Classic Service Proposal"
Northbound trains from Liverpool and Manchester are not run by ICWC and haven't been in a very long time

No Liverpool - Crewe - WCML stations - London trains at all, either! What if you want to go from Liverpool to Rugby, MK or Northampton?

What do you do currently?
My understanding is that Liverpool trains tend to stop at Runcorn and Stafford only normally, and proceed through Crewe without stopping.

If two trains per hour are provided from HS2 to Liverpool they will almost certainly stop at Crewe, where you can pick up a train to a WCML destination.
The only people disadvantages are Liverpool to Stafford customers.

"Tough ****, we are organising this from and for the benefit of London, can't you understand that?"

"We demand vast amounts of air be carted around to provide direct trains for journeys that comparatively few people make, can't you understand that?!"

 

[Bletchleyite]

My understanding is that Liverpool trains tend to stop at Runcorn and Stafford only normally, and proceed through Crewe without stopping.

They now mostly stop at Crewe except a few peak services, I believe.

 

[driver_m]

They now mostly stop at Crewe except a few peak services, I believe.

That's correct .Most stop at Crewe. 0605 and 0700 in the morning pass through, the 1907 on the way back, and one or two others, which are done by Euston drivers.

 

[Class 170101]

You don't need to provide 2tph to Manchester and 2tph to Birmingham over the classic route to just pick up intermediate passengers.
This admittedly crude drawing demonstrates how few trains are actually required, and very few places lose out drastically (Coventry has the benefit of relatively nearby HS2 station)

Your diagram omits Stafford to Crewe journeys and omits intermediate journeys. Nuneaton should return and possibly Tamworth. Rugby should probably get an hourly service to both Liverpool and Manchester. Frequency is also key hence two trains per hour to all three of Liverpool, Manchester and Birmingham.

 

[driver_m]

Like the planner says, no point going into what or what won't happen. Think the bids are all due in pretty soon and then it'll be down to some civil servants to carefully assess the bids before concluding that the one with the biggest pot of money wins.

 

[AndrewE]

If that is so then perhaps the XC Manchester trains could be extended to Glasgow and Edinburgh, alternating in opposition to the ICWC Birmingham service.

...adding at least an hour to the time by the direct route... a 5-car voyager a) usually routed via Stoke and b) is not what is needed anyway

Note that the title of that file is "ICWC Residual Classic Service Proposal"
Northbound trains from Liverpool and Manchester are not run by ICWC and haven't been in a very long time

but the classic west coast service certainly did serve the (real) north from Manchester and Liverpool

What do you do currently?

From Crewe for Liverpool we get either the WCML express or try to get the faster LNW stopper. For Oxenholme and Penrith there is are services alternate hours, ditto Glasgow and Edinburgh, (all usually rammed full) as I suspect you know. Stafford is far worse served.

My understanding is that Liverpool trains tend to stop at Runcorn and Stafford only normally, and proceed through Crewe without stopping.

wrong, but never mind

If two trains per hour are provided from HS2 to Liverpool they will almost certainly stop at Crewe, where you can pick up a train to a WCML destination.
The only people disadvantages are Liverpool to Stafford customers.

wrong, I'm afraid.

"We demand vast amounts of air be carted around to provide direct trains for journeys that comparatively few people make, can't you understand that?!"

I have tried to point out politely that on the northbound trains on the WCML from Crewe there is not much empty space being carted around. In fact when I protested my MP that the Pendolino timetable had removed lots of northbound services from Crewe he was told "You complained about overcrowding on trains through Crewe: OK, We have dealt with it, by knocking out the stops at Crewe!" It did indeed reduce the overcrowding on the non-stop services Euston - Warrington (- Glasgow.)

 

[HSTEd]

...adding at least an hour to the time by the direct route... a 5-car voyager a) usually routed via Stoke and b) is not what is needed anyway but the classic west coast service certainly did serve the (real) north from Manchester and Liverpool

Trains northbound from Manchester have been handled by TPE for an awful long time, and I am not entirely sure when Liverpool to Scotland trains even started again.

From Crewe for Liverpool we get either the WCML express or try to get the faster LNW stopper. For Oxenholme and Penrith there is are services alternate hours, ditto Glasgow and Edinburgh, (all usually rammed full) as I suspect you know. Stafford is far worse served.

Yes, run by TPE, not run by ICWC, so outside the defined scope of the diagram.

wrong, but never mind

I drew this diagram up in 2016, at that time most Liverpool trains did not stop at Crewe, which apparently has now changed.

I have tried to point out politely that on the northbound trains on the WCML from Crewe there is not much empty space being carted around. In fact when I protested my MP that the Pendolino timetable had removed lots of northbound services from Crewe he was told "You complained about overcrowding on trains through Crewe: OK, We have dealt with it, by knocking out the stops at Crewe!" It did indeed reduce the overcrowding on the non-stop services Euston - Warrington (- Glasgow.)

And once all the Euston and Birmingham - North station passengers are knocked out the number of passengers using these trains will drop precipitously.
Most trains from Warrington to Euston (seem to) stop only at Rugby or even run non-stop, so the loss of those trains from the WCML onto HS2 will not significantly reduce capacity.

 

[AndrewE]

Trains northbound from Manchester have been handled by TPE for an awful long time, and I am not entirely sure when Liverpool to Scotland trains even started again.

They haven't, as you probably know, but they ran in the Classic WCML services that I remember .

Yes, run by TPE, not run by ICWC, so outside the defined scope of the diagram.

so what? we are imagining a future west coast timetable, I don't care who runs the trains, and I think we would be better off for connections & resourcing etc if a company serving London runs them. What sort of a service would we have if Birmingham to Glasgow and Edinburgh hadn't been part of the original VTWC franchise, I wonder? [/QUOTE]

And once all the Euston and Birmingham - North station passengers are knocked out the number of passengers using these trains will drop precipitously.

I disagree: Not many people use them Northbound from Euston to N England or Scotland apart from those on cheap tickets. (~£80 instead of £119 via the Trent Valley to Carlisle - taking seats desperately needed by pax joining from Brum and points north to Warrington

Most trains from Warrington to Euston (seem to) stop only at Rugby or even run non-stop, so the loss of those trains from the WCML onto HS2 will not significantly reduce capacity.

About 50%, as the other half run via the westvmidlands and stop everywhere.

 

[DenmarkRail]

It is really easy for people at Crewe, and the HS2 stops to say that not many people are left out etc, and Stafford receives a good enough service. The fact is Stafford really gets a dismal fast train service, and a dismal full service to anywhere further than Manchester or Liverpool.

Again, it is really easy for people who have the choice of LNWR and VTWC services, to say oh get the LNWR train, but in reality, for many (me included) any journey longer than 1hr 30 mins to Euston isn't good enough, given the amount of pain we endured when the WC was upgraded. If Stafford were to ever loose its Virgin Train (or WCP operator) and be stuck with extra LNWR trains, I know myself, and certainly I know others who would possibly not even bother with trains from Stafford if they couldn't get the WCP operated service. While speed is the biggest factor, there are others - LNWR doesn't offer a full first class, VTWC does. LNWR doesn't offer proper seat reservations, VTWC does. Its the little things. So while it is really easy for people, at HS2 stations to suggest giving extra stops to the current Liverpool to EUS services is a good idea, and making it a LNWR service, it would have bad effects for all users.

I mean, I'd be fine with a Stafford, Rugby, London train, but anything with more stops would possibly be the nail in the coffin for my regular train trips from Stafford. I don't want to spend my journeys stopped at Atherstone for 5 mins.

The new West Coast Partnership may guarantee a service at Stafford, but post HS2? Will it still be guaranteed? I hope so, but I must say, I don't think it is likely.

 

[B&I]

MK is growing fast and is set to catch up Liverpool's population within maybe 30-50 years. So "classic line" services are more likely to be oriented to that than to the traditional destinations.

Yes, it helps that Milton Keynes is going to benefit perhaps more than anywhere else from HS2, despite having a population if less than a fifth of the Liverpool built-up area, and less than an eighth of its metropolitan area. Given the relentless boosterism which seems to surround that weird and soulless stretch of London overspill, compared to the almost complete neglect of everywhere outside the south east, I suspect given several centuries it will probably have grown to cover most of western Europe.

Not entirely sure how that's relevant anyway to the attitude of some on this forum to discussing Liverpool.

 

[The Planner]

I mean, I'd be fine with a Stafford, Rugby, London train, but anything with more stops would possibly be the nail in the coffin for my regular train trips from Stafford. I don't want to spend my journeys stopped at Atherstone for 5 mins.

The new West Coast Partnership may guarantee a service at Stafford, but post HS2? Will it still be guaranteed? I hope so, but I must say, I don't think it is likely.

You would get a HS2 train to Euston from Stafford if time was important to you.

 

[B&I]

What do you do currently? My understanding is that Liverpool trains tend to stop at Runcorn and Stafford only normally, and proceed through Crewe without stopping.

If two trains per hour are provided from HS2 to Liverpool they will almost certainly stop at Crewe, where you can pick up a train to a WCML destination.
The only people disadvantages are Liverpool to Stafford customers

Wrong on both counts. Most London-Liverpool services now stop at Crewe again. And Stafford is an important connection from Liverpool onto southbound XC services, as nobody thought to provide any to Liverpool itself, the alternative being a slower connection via the Birmingham service and the PITA if changing at New St.

I think the future of residual WC services is tied up with XC eg if there was to be an HS2 service from Birmingham to Scotland, the current stopping service could be run with bi-modes and merged with an XC service south of Birmingham. And I have raised the issue of replacing the Liverpool-Birmingham trundler with an XC service portion-working with the Manchester ones (apart from an HS2 connection) that even I'm bored listening to myself. That aside, how about extending the LNR Crewe services to Liverpool and Manchester, once hourly each, to maintain connections, and a more limited stop service to somewhere further north, maybe Blackpool ?

 

[mmh]

You don't need to provide 2tph to Manchester and 2tph to Birmingham over the classic route to just pick up intermediate passengers.
This admittedly crude drawing demonstrates how few trains are actually required, and very few places lose out drastically (Coventry has the benefit of relatively nearby HS2 station)

Your diagram seems to have moved where Stafford actually is, and erased Liverpool?

 

[The Ham]

You don't need to provide 2tph to Manchester and 2tph to Birmingham over the classic route to just pick up intermediate passengers.
This admittedly crude drawing demonstrates how few trains are actually required, and very few places lose out drastically (Coventry has the benefit of relatively nearby HS2 station)

An interesting diagram, and although there may be a need for 1 or 2 services beyond what is shown to cover the links required the general point still stands.

The general point is that currently there's 9tph from Euston in the future it could be possible (by causing some upset) to run this using HS2 services and 4tph.

Even if we assume that there's a need for a new service to fill in some of the gaps created by this diagram; that's still 4tph which can be used by other services.

Likewise a minimum of 2tph at Birmingham and 1tph at Manchester (as this ignores the benefits of not having a long distance trains sat in a platform for a long time at they turn around).