UK General Election 2024

[DynamicSpirit]

I suspect that there are several things going on behind the current public face of the Tory shenanigans (No ****, Sherlock!)

1) they know that they - through continuing austerity - have destroyed most of the once-trusted state institutions (e.g. the courts/criminal justice system) and bankrupted the country with the ludicrous pretence that you can have an effective western economy with a decent infrastructure, welfare state etc but that taxes can fall continually. See https://www.theguardian.com/busines...-face-uk-public-services-on-brink-of-collapse (Incoming ministers ‘will face UK public services on brink of collapse’
Institute for Government calls for ‘credible vision’ to tackle crisis engulfing NHS, prisons and local councils)

2 They can see Labour being in government next(!) but are doing all they can to spoil their chances of putting things right or getting the credit for it. The Tories don't give a damn about the state of the country and the chances of repairing the damage they have done, just their chances of getting back in in 2029, which will be higher if Labour get the flack for taxing to spend on repairing our infrastructure

3 Part of the "salting the earth" - even if it is the country they claim to be loyal to - is damaging our relationships with countries which might help the next government. Hence Sumak starting off doing the right thing over the D-Day commemorative events, but sliding away when a European perspective developed. I bet that (in the same way that special advisors told the Treasure what to cost to generate the "£2000 extra tax" claim) the same people planned it so that he could show his face in the morning, but antagonise the people and nations that we shall need to work with if we are to make much progress (on all the things with an international context) from now on.

None of this is remotely plausible. With respect, you're making the same mistake in this analysis that so many on the left make: Presuming the Tories are acting in bad faith and deliberately trying to destroy things. They aren't. Almost no-one in the UK, in any party, goes into politics just so they can deliberately muck things up. Almost everyone in all political parties (including the Tories) are there because they believe they are trying to make a better World (though of course people then get sucked into the culture of that party and therefore start losing their idealism). The explanation for the current shenanigans is going to be nothing more than a long series of cock-ups. And it's really not hard to see why: Pretty much everyone knows the Tories are heading for their worst defeat in modern history - and quite possibly a near wipe-out. Morale in the Tory party must surely be at rock bottom - as illustrated by how many Tory MPs are standing down. But running a modern national election campaign is a hugely complex undertaking which requires a massive amount of planning to get right, as well as large numbers of volunteers to be out campaigning. If morale is non-existent and the dedicated volunteers aren't there, then you're never going to pull it off and mind-blowing mistakes are going to be made. Throw in too that Rishi Sunak clearly didn't consult much within the Conservatives about the timing of the election and has therefore caught his own party almost completely off-guard. In short, we're seeing an organisation that lacks any cohesive leadership, in panic mode, trying to run an election campaign that they are not currently capable of. Hence the cock-ups, the absurd half-baked policy announcements, and the lack of coordination or awareness of what it all looks like to the public.

To be honest, I'm expecting lots more of the same thing over the next 4 weeks.

 

[dangie]

I suspect that a few people don't want more of the same, but I could be wrong (feel free to correct me if you think otherwise).

My post was tongue in cheek, saying that after 14 years the government has had plenty of time to do what they wanted to do, without telling us now what they will do if they get re-elected.

 

[Cowley]

Rishi Sunak clearly didn't consult much within the Conservatives about the timing of the election and has therefore caught his own party almost completely off-guard.

I’m increasingly wondering if this was possibly a deliberate ploy to head off any kind of last minute vote of no confidence in him?

 

[deltic]

I’m increasingly wondering if this was possibly a deliberate ploy to head off any kind of last minute vote of no confidence in him?

No - he is as many commentators have noted not very good at politics. He is a technocrat who has ended up as PM by a complete fluke surrounded by Yes men/women (in the same way as the last few PMs have been). If things had worked out differently he would still be a junior minister learning the ropes.

 

[jfollows]

No - he is as many commentators have noted not very good at politics. He is a technocrat who has ended up as PM by a complete fluke surrounded by Yes men/women (in the same way as the last few PMs have been). If things had worked out differently he would still be a junior minister learning the ropes.

I think you’re right.
Margaret Thatcher and Theresa May both ensured they had differing opinions and dissenting voices in their cabinets.
Boris Johnson, Liz Truss and Rishi Sunak surrounded themselves with sycophants.
The obvious outcome wasn’t surprising in all cases.

 

[telstarbox]

Has anyone here been canvassed in person yet?

 

[DynamicSpirit]

I’m increasingly wondering if this was possibly a deliberate ploy to head off any kind of last minute vote of no confidence in him?

No - he is as many commentators have noted not very good at politics. He is a technocrat who has ended up as PM by a complete fluke surrounded by Yes men/women (in the same way as the last few PMs have been). If things had worked out differently he would still be a junior minister learning the ropes.

I think there is truth in both of those. Rishi Sunak is fundamentally a technocrat and not a natural politician. I don't think he has the kind of instincts you need to made good decisions as a leader and PM, and stuff like screwing up how he made the election decision is an example of that. But I also suspect the election announcement was made in panic. It could be as @Cowley says, he feared Tory MPs triggering another leadership election. Could also be that he feared a flurry of more MPs defecting to Labour.

 

[SuspectUsual]

Has anyone here been canvassed in person yet?

Sort of. The Labour candidate for Calder Valley was sat at the next table to me in a cafe the other day and we had a chat. I know him a bit from flood relief volunteering back in 2015

And then two days later I came home to a “your Labour candidate called but you weren’t in” leaflet

 

[Bantamzen]

He's our (unelected) Prime Minister, being paid by us to, in this case, represent us at the 80th anniversary of an incredibly significant moment in the Second World War, itself the most significant event in 20th Century British history. That there can be any argument that he committed a massive and unforgiveable error by his nonchalant disregard for the feelings of so many by his casual withdrawal I totally reject, and by way of true regret and reparation I suggest he take a leaf from the book of John Profumo and retire forthwith from public life without waiting for his defenestration on the night of 4th/5th June. May the Tories suffer their worst ever election defeat then. RIP, no flowers by public demand.

How many more times does it need to be said? Whatever anyone may think of Sunak, he is not unelected. He was elected by his constituency and subsequently made PM by his party. We, the public, do not vote for who is going to be Prime Minister, that is the decision of the ruling party.

Repeat, we the public do not vote for the person who is going to be Prime Minister.

 

[52290]

Has anyone here been canvassed in person yet?

I'm 80 and I was born in this house in which I have lived all my life. I have never been canvassed in person, although I do get leaflets stuffed through the letterbox.

 

[jfollows]

Has anyone here been canvassed in person yet?

No.
Given that I live in a normally-guaranteed Tory seat, I have never been canvassed, but Esther McVey needs to be out grovelling for votes this time, not that she’d ever get mine.

 

[WesternLancer]

Has anyone here been canvassed in person yet?

No but I have been out canvassing when other parties have tried to call on me!

 

[telstarbox]

Inception!

 

[WesternLancer]

I'm 80 and I was born in this house in which I have lived all my life. I have never been canvassed in person, although I do get leaflets stuffed through the letterbox.

It can very much depend on the marginality of your seat as to the probability of this. Esp outside of a by election.

 

[dangie]

Has anyone here been canvassed in person yet?

Yes, my existing Conservative MP knocked at the door a couple of days ago. We spent 10-15 minutes chatting. We even talked a little about politics. She lives not far from me.

 

[nw1]

I have always lived in seats with some marginal tendency throughout my adult life - but have never been canvassed.

I have had a Lib Dem leaflet this time, though. Nothing from the Tories, despite the incumbent being a Tory and the seat a likely marginal this time. This ward has been trending Lib Dem of late so I'd expect a bit more effort from the Tories to hold the votes!

As I said I did see a Tory out canvassing in a neighbouring constituency last week.

 

[WesternLancer]

Has anyone here been canvassed in person yet?

The thing to be aware of is that for at least 50 plus years political party membership has been in decline so the pool of ppl to canvass is small

Then of that membership only a small percentage (maybe 10%?) would think they had the skills/time/knowledge/desire to volunteer to cold call voters in their constituency. That might be fewer than 50 ppl per party per constituency.

Divide that by the number of homes to call on (maybe 20k?) and even if the vols were doing it full time, which they won’t be, the chances of getting canvassed are small. Then, esp since things like Sunday trading etc, flexible working and the casual economy, the chances of people being in when you call is also reduced.

Having done lots of it over the years it’s a pretty time inefficient activity.

 

[40C]

I have just received a poll card, not a poll letter, delivered by Royal Mail.

 

[WesternLancer]

I have always lived in seats with some marginal tendency throughout my adult life - but have never been canvassed.

I have had a Lib Dem leaflet this time, though. Nothing from the Tories, despite the incumbent being a Tory and the seat a likely marginal this time. This ward has been trending Lib Dem of late so I'd expect a bit more effort from the Tories to hold the votes!

In a general election you should get a leaflet from all parties that print one via the free post. This is Roysl Mails obligation to deliver 1 item to each household for each party ahead of certain types of specified elections.

Over and above that other leaflets I’d expect to be delivered by volunteers from the respective parties. Tories have an ageing membership so may not have many boots on the ground. But they have money to use in other ways eg targeted social media ads etc.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 8 Jun 2024 ==

I have just received a poll card, not a poll letter, delivered by Royal Mail.

Presume the notice of poll from your local council. To tell you when and where to vote. An official non political bit of info to help you vote. Not actually required to vote of course.

Not heard of a poll letter, is that the same purpose as a card but how some local councils do it?

 

[Bayum]

Has anyone here been canvassed in person yet?

Had someone drop a newspaper from our local conservative candidate - first time I’ve ever seen him create such a thing.

 

[WesternLancer]

Yes, my existing Conservative MP knocked at the door a couple of days ago. We spent 10-15 minutes chatting. We even talked a little about politics. She lives not far from me.

Of course the trick is to keep the representative of your political opponent talking for as long as possible! All the time they are talking to someone whose not going to vote for them they are not persuading a floating voter how good they are

The classic error is giving short shrift to someone whose party you dislike! That’s the most helpful thing you can do for them.

 

[DynamicSpirit]

]Over and above that other leaflets I’d expect to be delivered by volunteers from the respective parties. Tories have an ageing membership so may not have many boots on the ground. But they have money to use in other ways eg targeted social media ads etc.

Agreed. At the moment I'd say Labour (and in Scotland the SNP) are the only parties with a sufficiently large mass membership that they can have people out and about significantly across the country. Labour have lost members since the Corbyn era but I think they are still on somewhere around 400K membership. The Tories are likely to be struggling because of their lower membership, many members being elderly, and a likely lack of morale/volunteers not wanting to put themselves out there and canvas when they know they are so unpopular. The LibDems also have a low (and I get the impression, somewhat elderly) membership, but seem pretty good at targetting so will probably have a lot of people out in the small number of constituencies they think they can win - with lots of members travelling to those places from wherever they live, and therefore almost nothing anywhere else.

 

[Mcr Warrior]

The classic error is giving short shrift to someone whose party you dislike! That’s the most helpful thing you can do for them.

Eh? Fairly sure I've got better things to do with my time than discuss the state of the nation with a doorknocking, timewasting, wannabe MP or their representative(s).

 

[DynamicSpirit]

The classic error is giving short shrift to someone whose party you dislike! That’s the most helpful thing you can do for them.

Depending of course how valuable your own time is

Actually I'd be pretty reluctant to give 'short shrift' to someone knocking, even if it's from a party that I totally detest - because they are most likely a volunteer giving up their time to help a cause they believe in, and besides, unless it's actually Rishi Sunak himself canvassing you, the canvasser is not personally responsible for how things have been messed up, so I'd hope I'd be polite to them, whoever it is.

 

[takno]

Over and above that other leaflets I’d expect to be delivered by volunteers from the respective parties. Tories have an ageing membership so may not have many boots on the ground. But they have money to use in other ways eg targeted social media ads etc.

The Tories weren't above sending leaflets round with the free paper distributors even in the 80s, if it was an area they didn't fancy covering. If I could have afforded to give up the job I would most certainly have dumped the leaflets rather than deliver them around the passionately anti-Thatcher local council estate.

While there aren't many local papers anymore, there are still people who do periodic leaflet runs for money in a lot of areas.

In terms of canvassing, I have been canvassed a few times by Labour (purely because there used to a classic scottish-flat style mismatch between the electoral roll and my party membership), and I seem to remember the SNP also coming around. It wasn't the actual candidate in either case. Other parties haven't really been in contention here for a few years, so I assume their attentions go on neighbouring constituencies.

 

[Vexed]

Has anyone here been canvassed in person yet?

No canvassing yet for me in St Albans but someone (forgot which party) came round recently for the local elections, so I'd expect something soon.

I usually get a couple Conservative leaflets a year and double that from Lib Dems. Never had anything from Labour.

There are quite a few orange vote Lib Dem/Daisy Cooper signs up and a distinct lack of any from other parties!

 

[52290]

I'm 80 and I was born in this house in which I have lived all my life. I have never been canvassed in person, although I do get leaflets stuffed through the letterbox.

Wonders never cease! Someone's just knocked on my door and handed me a Labour leaflet. Not the candidate himself, but a local councilor.

 

[Enthusiast]

Has anyone here been canvassed in person yet?

No.

I have a notice on my door which says I do not welcome unexpected callers and this includes sales personnel, religious missionaries and political canvassers. There is no way my vote is going to be influenced by some chancer telling me what he and his party will do for me over the next five years. I already know that.

The classic error is giving short shrift to someone whose party you dislike! That’s the most helpful thing you can do for them.

My father always dismissed canvassers from his chosen party quickly on the basis that there was nothing he needed from them and their time would be better spent elsewhere. Conversely he engaged in lengthy discourse with those from parties he opposed so as to eat into the time they had to persuade anybody else of their merits.

Personally I think door to door canvassing should be made illegal. There is simply no need for it with the variety of communication methods available today. I don't really know why politicians believe that ringing somebody's doorbell whilst they are watching Eastenders is likely to gain them any votes.

 

[najaB]

Personally I think door to door canvassing should be made illegal.

So it should be illegal for politicians to get out and about and meet the electorate. Interesting take on democracy!

 

[Gloster]

No.

I have a notice on my door which says I do not welcome unexpected callers and this includes sales personnel, religious missionaries and political canvassers. There is no way my vote is going to be influenced by some chancer telling me what he and his party will do for me over the next five years. I already know that.



My father always dismissed canvassers from his chosen party quickly on the basis that there was nothing he needed from them and their time would be better spent elsewhere. Conversely he engaged in lengthy discourse with those from parties he opposed so as to eat into the time they had to persuade anybody else of their merits.

Personally I think door to door canvassing should be made illegal. There is simply no need for it with the variety of communication methods available today. I don't really know why politicians believe that ringing somebody's doorbell whilst they are watching Eastenders is likely to gain them any votes.

…or, as happened to somebody I know who was canvassing for the SDP, while the householder and spouse were involved in intimate congress.