UK General Election 2024

[najaB]

I'm not sure what the most likely plausible way is to create the political circumstances that would make changing the electoral system realistic, though I guess the stronger the LibDems do, the more likely it becomes.

The 2029 election. Labour know that if the Tories get back in with a workable majority then that's it for two or three electoral cycles.

 

[AlterEgo]

I am not hard left myself, but I don't know why left wing Labour MPs and supporters don't from thier own party. A "Reform of the left" would do quite well, especially if Corbyn was leading it.

The Workers Party (Galloway's lot) is standing lots of candidates and will waste a lot of deposits with utterly bonkers candidates. The one for my constituency doesn't even have a picture available.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 7 Jun 2024 ==

On the one hand, our head of state was attending so it's not like the UK didn't have the highest level of representation

It does look very bad to leave the King - an elderly man with cancer - to mop up the duties. Absolutely unforgivable for a Conservative to do that.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 7 Jun 2024 ==

I'm beginning to wonder. I remember someone suggesting Sunak has been offered a job in the US; perhaps this is indeed the case and he has to start next month, or something.

That was me. It wasn't based on anything concrete, but it seems likely that is where his future is.

 

[edwin_m]

This is fundamentally down to being a broad church party, you have to keep moderate/timid with your thinking in an attempt to avoid annoying a large core of your prospective voters. Smaller parties on the other hand are saying exactly what their supporters are thinking, which given their small size is easier to manage. Furthermore, it's the swing voters who ultimately decide elections, even though they're such a small proportion of all voters. When they broadly want the same things, the main parties are going to look similar in appealing to them.

Normally the case, but in 2019 Labour went off to the left and the Tories to the right. Now Labour are back near the centre but the Tories have gone even further to the extreme in an attempt to counter or appease Reform, who like other small parties can promise whatever they like as they will never be in power to deliver it.

Nominations (and withdrawal of previous nominations) have to be in by 4pm and the lists of candidates are published an hour later, when we will see if Reform has stood in every constituency as they promised. Farage has gone back on on major promise already, but any stunt to withdraw candidates against more "acceptable" Tories will be less effective after that, because the names will irrevocably be on the ballot papers. Perhaps Labour will be a bit less cautious once that threat has reduced.

 

[JonathanH]

Until yesterday I was thinking that 100 seats was unduly pessimistic for the Conservatives, but now I'm thinking more that it's the best possible outcome for them and they're more likely to get fewer seats than that.

We are almost at the stage where the Conservative party should simply withdraw from the election and sit it out, coming back in 2029 with some better ideas. At least such a move would allow the Liberal Democrats to get more seats to be an effective check on Labour.

The danger of course is letting Reform build up its vote.

 

[Class 466]

Feels like this is a potentially pivotal moment in this election that’ll be remembered like Gordon Brown’s “Bigoted Woman” or Theresa Mays “Nothing has changed”

 

[telstarbox]

Electoral Calculus update today forecasts Labour on 475 seats and Conservatives on 75, up slightly from 66 last week.

 

[birchesgreen]

Electoral Calculus update today forecasts Labour on 475 seats and Conservatives on 75, up slightly from 66 last week.

"Our plan is working!!!!"

 

[Gloster]

You wonder if, in the not too distant future on a planet very, very near, someone will start doing political seminars about this election called How to lose an election. It does make me worry that there is something very bad, or possibly bigly bad, going to happen soon and the Conservatives are showing the depth of their patriotism and dedication to the country by doing a runner and leaving someone else to deal with the fallout (possibly literally).

 

[nw1]

You wonder if, in the not too distant future on a planet very, very near, someone will start doing political seminars about this election called How to lose an election. It does make me worry that there is something very bad, or possibly bigly bad, going to happen soon and the Conservatives are showing the depth of their patriotism and dedication to the country by doing a runner and leaving someone else to deal with the fallout (possibly literally).

Mind you if you are suggesting world destruction (I hope that is not the case and I am misreading what you are trying to say) then the reputation of the Conservatives is going to be of no consequence.

 

[dosxuk]

You only have to look back to 2017 when Theresa May tried to shore up her majority with a snap election to discover the Conservatives have history in making a right hash of an election campaign.

 

[nw1]

"Our plan is working!!!!"

Presumably as a result of Sunak's performance on that TV debate, perceived as good by some. I suspect it'll drop again in a couple of days.

 

[DynamicSpirit]

You wonder if, in the not too distant future on a planet very, very near, someone will start doing political seminars about this election called How to lose an election.

Theresa May can be the seminar leader for that one. Rishi Sunak does seem to be making quite a serious effort to compete with her, though.

 

[Gloster]

Mind you if you are suggesting world destruction (I hope that is not the case and I am misreading what you are trying to say) then the reputation of the Conservatives is going to be of no consequence.

Not world destruction, but a possible open or undeclared conflict involving tactical nuclear weapons or planted nuclear devices: think what Putin or others could do if they wanted without going to full scale rockets. But that is only a possibility. It could be something completely different, such as a massive financial crash. Or a pandemic, or…

 

[nw1]

Not world destruction, but a possible open or undeclared conflict involving tactical nuclear weapons or planted nuclear devices: think what Putin or others could do if they wanted without going to full scale rockets. But that is only a possibility. It could be something completely different, such as a massive financial crash. Or a pandemic, or…

Ah, ok. Even though that's bad enough, it's not quite as bad as I was fearing: I had visions of Putin dropping nuclear bombs on major cities of NATO countries, including us.

 

[GusB]

Duguid, the MP who was expecting to stand for Aberdeenshire North & Moray East as it contained part of his old seat, although I am not sure if had been formally adopted, has been having treatment for a back problem, but seems to be recovering well. Suddenly on Wednesday he said he had been barred and Ross, whose seat was also partly contained in the new seat, put himself forward, seemingly with party backing. As far as I can remember, Ross had said that he would retire from Westminster and concentrate on his role as an MSP; he also acts as a football referee (or refereeing adviser). The SNP are rubbing their hands with glee.

Oh well. If he does get elected, DRoss will no longer be my MP. His majority in the old constituency wasn't exactly huge, and now they've redrawn the boundaries it's not certain where the new Moray West, Nairn and Strathspey will go.

Perhaps he's keeping his hand in at Westminster in case it goes horribly wrong for him at the next Holyrood election.

 

[nw1]

Theresa May can be the seminar leader for that one. Rishi Sunak does seem to be making quite a serious effort to compete with her, though.

For a time, I was wondering whether something like 2017 would happen, but in reverse, i.e. Labour would lose a lot of ground due to various errors (the ambiguity with Diane Abbott, the debate, etc) and we'd end up with a hung parliament albeit with Labour probably biggest party.

Seems very unlikely now.

 

[SteveP29]

Other than Jeremy Corbyn, I also can't think of any notable person that could cut through and result in any real gains. Politically, he's toxic

So toxic that he gets these majorities in his constituency?
Compared to the charismatic Farage, who was beaten by a man in a dolphin suit

 

[Gloster]

Labour’s 1983 manifesto was described by Gerald Kaufman as ‘the longest suicide note in history’. The current Conservative campaign looks like being the longest car crash in history.

 

[takno]

It does make me worry that there is something very bad, or possibly bigly bad, going to happen soon and the Conservatives are showing the depth of their patriotism and dedication to the country by doing a runner and leaving someone else to deal with the fallout (possibly literally).

I think they've just fired everybody who isn't out and out terrible at their job. On some level they probably realise that there isn't a way to even basically balance the books without tax rises and they want Labour to take the blame for that, and they may well realise that Trump coming in is going to make like interesting for anybody else in power anywhere, but I strongly doubt that they are effective enough to deliberately throw an election.

 

[LNW-GW Joint]

Some polls are projecting that the Lib Dems could become the official Opposition which would be funny considering that the Tories would then get less seats than the Lib Dems.

That would be revenge for the LibDem wipeout in 2015.
But there's only one real vote that matters.
The LDs have to recover in Wales and Scotland too, which won't be easy.
Brexit, and how to reform that, is the elephant in the room for all parties.

 

[Sad Sprinter]

You wonder if, in the not too distant future on a planet very, very near, someone will start doing political seminars about this election called How to lose an election. It does make me worry that there is something very bad, or possibly bigly bad, going to happen soon and the Conservatives are showing the depth of their patriotism and dedication to the country by doing a runner and leaving someone else to deal with the fallout (possibly literally).

That is actually the more believable scenario, the other being our calibre of elected representatives are poorer beyond comprehension.

 

[skyhigh]

I think they've just fired everybody who isn't out and out terrible at their job. On some level they probably realise that there isn't a way to even basically balance the books without tax rises and they want Labour to take the blame for that, and they may well realise that Trump coming in is going to make like interesting for anybody else in power anywhere, but I strongly doubt that they are effective enough to deliberately throw an election.

My gut feeling is that by following through on his threat to call an election if enough no confidence letters were submitted Sunak has caught the entire party off-guard and they weren't prepared for an immediate election campaign. He knows his time is up and has other things to move onto, so as such has no skin in the game and no desire to win.

I don't think they're deliberately throwing the election, just unprepared and lead by someone who's heart isn't in it.

 

[LNW-GW Joint]

I agree.
Labour landslide -> vested interest in keeping the existing system.
I still want a Labour landslide, but it won't result in a change to the electoral system. It'll just consign the Tory right wing to irrelevance for longer than otherwise.

A Labour landslide would be as damaging as a Tory one.
They would be able to pass laws without real challenge, and in 5 years that could do a lot of damage, just as the Tories did in 9 years since 2015.
(The first 5 years 2010-15 were the coalition years where the Tory right wing were in check).
There needs to be at least some opposition to prevent the development of a one-party state (which we have in Wales...).
That's why the LD/SNP performances will be critical.
If Reform get more seats that the LDs and SNP were are in deep trouble.

 

[Gloster]

A Labour landslide would be as damaging as a Tory one.
They would be able to pass laws without real challenge, and in 5 years that could do a lot of damage, just as the Tories did in 9 years since 2015.
(The first 5 years 2010-15 were the coalition years where the Tory right wing were in check).
There needs to be at least some opposition to prevent the development of a one-party state (which we have in Wales...).
That's why the LD/SNP performances will be critical.
If Reform get more seats that the LDs and SNP were are in deep trouble.

I can’t see Reform taking more seats than the Liberal-Democrats or SNP. Even at their most extreme I don’t see them getting out of single figures and they might just have one (Farage, which will be bad enough, what with the likelihood that he will mostly be interested in grandstanding and causing disruption to raise his money-making profile) or maybe two MPs.

Going back to the elephant. Despite being a rock-solid Remainer, I can’t see there being much movement towards rejoining the EU in this and probably the next Parliament. Not only is there likely to be far too much of a mess left for Labour to clear up that they will have to deal with the situation we are in today, but I suspect that the EU will be reluctant to start negotiations when there is the risk that in ten years, with negotiations nearing their end, a hard-line Conservative government gets in and rips it all up. The most that Labour can do is to adopt a less hostile attitude and rejoin some of the peripheral agreements: this is likely to bring immediate benefits without causing too many splits.

 

[jfollows]

Going back to the elephant. Despite being a rock-solid Remainer, I can’t see there being much movement towards rejoining the EU in this and probably the next Parliament. Not only is there likely to be far too much of a mess left for Labour to clear up that they will have to deal with the situation we are in today, but I suspect that the EU will be reluctant to start negotiations when there is the risk that in ten years, with negotiations nearing their end, a hard-line Conservative government gets in and rips it all up. The most that Labour can do is to adopt a less hostile attitude and rejoin some of the peripheral agreements: this is likely to bring immediate benefits without causing too many splits.

We're not going to rejoin the EU because the terms and conditions that would be required - rightly - will be unacceptable to the majority of people in the UK (including Labour) and vastly different from the terms under which we were formerly members.

The best we're going to get is a government which wants to engage positively with the EU and, perhaps, negotiate towards something like a customs union in due course.

I'm like you in thinking that where we are now is a complete disaster for our country, but that's a battle fought and lost.

 

[YorkRailFan]

Count Binface is officially standing against Sunak in Richmond (Yorks) and Northallerton.

NEW: Count Binface is standing against Rishi Sunak in his Richmond and North Allerton seat

x.com

x.com

This will be very funny on election night and indeed Count Binface's campaign, just a shame its not Clacton.

 

[61653 HTAFC]

As much as I'll be glad to see the back of the current Tory administration who've been running on fumes since the 2019 election, the more I see of Sir Kier Starmer, the less enthused I am about him being our next premier...

He doesn't seem to have any concrete beliefs or principles at all, and if it were revealed that he was in fact a robot I wouldn't be overly surprised. Essentially this election is his to lose, and if he's going to say frankly inhuman things like that he wouldn't use private health care to save a dying relative of his, then he may yet snatch defeat from the jaws of victory in a manner even more spectacular than Neil Kinnock in 1992.

 

[JonathanH]

A Labour landslide would be as damaging as a Tory one.
They would be able to pass laws without real challenge, and in 5 years that could do a lot of damage, just as the Tories did in 9 years since 2015.
(The first 5 years 2010-15 were the coalition years where the Tory right wing were in check).

What laws are they going to pass that are actually damaging? It all seems to be fairly moderate tinkering as it stands.

The UK is in inexorable decline whoever gets into power, and there is very little any political party can do about that, because the power they have is very limited, with so much of the economy not really in our hands.

What really needs to happen is for politicians to be honest about the difficult choices and ongoing decline of living standards. The UK is mortgaged to the rest of the world with very limited resources of its own to change that. It really needs learned bodies to make this clear.

He doesn't seem to have any concrete beliefs or principles at all, and if it were revealed that he was in fact a robot I wouldn't be overly surprised.

In a way that is fine, if all that is going to happen is a slightly more sensible management of day to day affairs than we currently have.

 

[nw1]

We're not going to rejoin the EU because the terms and conditions that would be required - rightly - will be unacceptable to the majority of people in the UK (including Labour) and vastly different from the terms under which we were formerly members.

The best we're going to get is a government which wants to engage positively with the EU and, perhaps, negotiate towards something like a customs union in due course.

I'm like you in thinking that where we are now is a complete disaster for our country, but that's a battle fought and lost.

But was the battle "fought and lost" (for Brexiters) in 1983 (i.e. eight years after the previous referendum)? The answer was obviously "no".

I'm not saying attempting to rejoin is a priority right now, but who knows in future, say 10 or more years down the line, when the pro-Brexit generations will be only a minority of the electorate and the Conservative Party will probably be a centre-right party once again, no longer interested in campaigning for outdated 2010s and 2020s causes.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 7 Jun 2024 ==

He doesn't seem to have any concrete beliefs or principles at all, and if it were revealed that he was in fact a robot I wouldn't be overly surprised. Essentially this election is his to lose, and if he's going to say frankly inhuman things like that he wouldn't use private health care to save a dying relative of his, then he may yet snatch defeat from the jaws of victory in a manner even more spectacular than Neil Kinnock in 1992.

I think there's more chance of Boris Johnson campaigning to rejoin the EU than that!

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 7 Jun 2024 ==

The UK is in inexorable decline whoever gets into power, and there is very little any political party can do about that, because the power they have is very limited, with so much of the economy not really in our hands.

What really needs to happen is for politicians to be honest about the difficult choices and ongoing decline of living standards. The UK is mortgaged to the rest of the world with very limited resources of its own to change that. It really needs learned bodies to make this clear.

I have to say, and (sorry to be blunt) this is a very depressing and fatalistic view of the world. The question is, why is the UK in decline when it wasn't in the past? What can be changed to "reset" things to how they were in the past? And what is the cause: Covid, Russia, Brexit, or something else? I'd like to see "learned bodies" try to figure out how to fix the problems rather than convincing all of us to accept a miserable life.

Can we not look to other countries which might be doing better, and try to replicate them by re-modelling our economy? Should we try to build heavy industry again and rely less on potentially-hostile countries, while improving relations with friendly ones? Do your comments also apply to other western countries, e.g. France, Germany, US (assuming they don't shoot themselves in the foot by voting for Trump), Canada, etc? Or is it because we're a small country compared to those; if so how are the likes of Belgium, The Netherlands, Sweden, Denmark, New Zealand, etc, doing in comparison?

 

[Peter Mugridge]

The current Conservative campaign looks like being the longest car crash in history.

Helicopter crash, surely...?