UK General Election 2024

[BrianW]

I think you’re right.
Margaret Thatcher and Theresa May both ensured they had differing opinions and dissenting voices in their cabinets.
Boris Johnson, Liz Truss and Rishi Sunak surrounded themselves by sycophants.
The obvious outcome wasn’t surprising in all cases.

Well-observed, although Mrs T did 'purge' her cabinets of 'wets', sending gentle Jim Prior to the Northern Island 'gulag'.
While looking back, Mrs Thatcher had her 'Wobbly Thursday' in 1987, when Norman Tebbitt, her Party campaign manager, and Tim Bell her PR guru were said to be at each other's throats over poor poll results- Mrs T looked to her trustworthy personal guide Lord 'He brings me solutions, not problems' Young.
Is Rishi somehow 'hedging his bets'?

No canvassing yet for me in St Albans but someone (forgot which party) came round recently for the local elections, so I'd expect something soon.

I usually get a couple Conservative leaflets a year and double that from Lib Dems. Never had anything from Labour.

There are quite a few orange vote Lib Dem/Daisy Cooper signs up and a distinct lack of any from other parties!

I understand the Lib Dems are 'concentrating their fire' at what they regard as winnable seats- ie where they came second last time- so more canvassing in those, together with 'maintaining' their positions where they won last time.

 

[WesternLancer]

Agreed. At the moment I'd say Labour (and in Scotland the SNP) are the only parties with a sufficiently large mass membership that they can have people out and about significantly across the country. Labour have lost members since the Corbyn era but I think they are still on somewhere around 400K membership. The Tories are likely to be struggling because of their lower membership, many members being elderly, and a likely lack of morale/volunteers not wanting to put themselves out there and canvas when they know they are so unpopular. The LibDems also have a low (and I get the impression, somewhat elderly) membership, but seem pretty good at targetting so will probably have a lot of people out in the small number of constituencies they think they can win - with lots of members travelling to those places from wherever they live, and therefore almost nothing anywhere else.

I do agree. I think Lib Dem’s as a long term minor party are indeed skilled at target. Eg their parliamentary candidate in my area who is never going to win is a councillor in the constituency. He will use his profile in the election to good effect in his council ward and direct canvassing to that ward only to help build his base there. Logical approach.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 8 Jun 2024 ==

Eh? Fairly sure I've got better things to do with my time than discuss the state of the nation with a doorknocking, timewasting, wannabe MP or their representative(s).

Of course you may have. But for anyone keen to stop x party winning it may be how they wish to use their time. Others of us will be busy on railforums instead!

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 8 Jun 2024 ==

Depending of course how valuable your own time is

Actually I'd be pretty reluctant to give 'short shrift' to someone knocking, even if it's from a party that I totally detest - because they are most likely a volunteer giving up their time to help a cause they believe in, and besides, unless it's actually Rishi Sunak himself canvassing you, the canvasser is not personally responsible for how things have been messed up, so I'd hope I'd be polite to them, whoever it is.

Vast majority of people are indeed very civil. Even most that give short shrift do so politely in my experience. Pleasing that real life is often far more civil than the on line world.

 

[Stephen42]

Presume the notice of poll from your local council. To tell you when and where to vote. An official non political bit of info to help you vote. Not actually required to vote of course.

Not heard of a poll letter, is that the same purpose as a card but how some local councils do it?

The letters should still say poll card, but there's no requirement for them to be printed on card. The poll cards for those voting in person should now include the list of acceptable voter ID which makes them a lot longer.

In practice this means most councils will probably use the traditional cards for those voting by post and an A4 letter for those voting in person.

 

[WesternLancer]

The Tories weren't above sending leaflets round with the free paper distributors even in the 80s, if it was an area they didn't fancy covering. If I could have afforded to give up the job I would most certainly have dumped the leaflets rather than deliver them around the passionately anti-Thatcher local council estate.

While there aren't many local papers anymore, there are still people who do periodic leaflet runs for money in a lot of areas.

In terms of canvassing, I have been canvassed a few times by Labour (purely because there used to a classic scottish-flat style mismatch between the electoral roll and my party membership), and I seem to remember the SNP also coming around. It wasn't the actual candidate in either case. Other parties haven't really been in contention here for a few years, so I assume their attentions go on neighbouring constituencies.

If you pay for leaflet delivery you have to declare it as an election expense locally. And there is a limit on local expenditure so paid for delivery is often not feasible iirc. But it perhaps works if you incur no other costs.

 

[BrianW]

'Others of us will be busy on railforums instead!'
WesternLancer- as you note, and contribute, it appears that RailUKforums is not a canvasser-free zone.

 

[takno]

Agreed. At the moment I'd say Labour (and in Scotland the SNP) are the only parties with a sufficiently large mass membership that they can have people out and about significantly across the country. Labour have lost members since the Corbyn era but I think they are still on somewhere around 400K membership. The Tories are likely to be struggling because of their lower membership, many members being elderly, and a likely lack of morale/volunteers not wanting to put themselves out there and canvas when they know they are so unpopular. The LibDems also have a low (and I get the impression, somewhat elderly) membership, but seem pretty good at targetting so will probably have a lot of people out in the small number of constituencies they think they can win - with lots of members travelling to those places from wherever they live, and therefore almost nothing anywhere else.

I'm not sure overall membership numbers count as significantly as they are credited. I'm in the Labour party mostly so that I get a vote on leaders and NEC members that I like, and because I'd probably end up donating the price of membership every year anyway. I'm not committed enough to canvas, and the move to online branch meetings during Covid and afterwards has removed any social element. There is quite a lot of outreach to be an activist, but ultimately it's basically sales, which is a job I passionately hate doing.

People don't join the LibDems in order to influence the winning party - they're typically much more likely to be activists. I would guess that the number of Labour party activists isn't actually a great deal higher than the Lib Dems. In both cases though there is a long term and substantial national investment in activism which hasn't really been matched by the other parties for a long time.

 

[Busaholic]

How many more times does it need to be said? Whatever anyone may think of Sunak, he is not unelected. He was elected by his constituency and subsequently made PM by his party. We, the public, do not vote for who is going to be Prime Minister, that is the decision of the ruling party.

Repeat, we the public do not vote for the person who is going to be Prime Minister.

I'm well aware of this, probably since before you were born in fact. The reason I even used the word, in brackets, was to indicate that he'd never even won a General Election as party leader thus showing he had some democratic public legitimacy.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 8 Jun 2024 ==

Has anyone here been canvassed in person yet?

Yes.

 

[The Ham]

Has anyone here been canvassed in person yet?

Nearly, if if worked at home all day rather than just the afternoon I would have.

Which is unusual as it was the Tory candidate in what has traditionally been a very safe Tory seat.

I did however walk past two open doors at the point when they were asked "can we rely on your support", the first one was "(a few second pause) erm, I've not decided" the second was a straight "no" that second one was to the candidate.

Locally there's 3 locations with a Tory sign and 3 locations the with LIb Dems signs (that I've seen), this is unusual, previously I've not seen Lib Dems signs.

It's likely that things could be an indicator of it being much closer than before (if anyone else other than the Tories win that would still be a significant upset).

 

[takno]

If you pay for leaflet delivery you have to declare it as an election expense locally. And there is a limit on local expenditure so paid for delivery is often not feasible iirc. But it perhaps works if you incur no other costs.

Hmm, yes. You definitely wouldn't want to target the whole constituency. I think it was a local election they forced me to do, and they may have got it for free because the local paper was owned by somebody who, shall we say, didn't strike me as a typical Labour voter

 

[Gloster]

It will be interesting (to me, at least) to see which ‘well known’ names appear as the newspapers go through the list of candidates. Retread MPs, ‘wasn’t he the one who couldn’t remember the name of his constituency’, TV ‘personalities’, ‘isn’t she the one who gives hints about keeping goldfish on Good Morning, Loamshire!’, or self-publicists, ‘I invented the remote-controlled toothbrush’. These will be used to fill out the news on quieter days or as camouflage for any gaffes by the Conservatives.

So far the only one of any note, but really only to politics junkies, is that the Conservative candidate in Thanet East is Helen Harrison. Who she? She was the candidate who lost the Wellingborough by-election after Peter Bone, her partner, was recalled.

 

[WesternLancer]

Personally I think door to door canvassing should be made illegal. There is simply no need for it with the variety of communication methods available today. I don't really know why politicians believe that ringing somebody's doorbell whilst they are watching Eastenders is likely to gain them any votes.

Of course for everyone who feels like this there is someone else who complains ‘you never see any parties round here’ so you can’t win really.

But the reason they knock is because it works. Mind you the objective of canvassing isn’t really to change peoples minds it’s to assess the strength of your support. So you need to listen to people to do that. Only in marginal seats would you really focus on trying to be persuasive as every vote really counts. Such are the problems with the uk electoral system.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 8 Jun 2024 ==

Hmm, yes. You definitely wouldn't want to target the whole constituency. I think it was a local election they forced me to do, and they may have got it for free because the local paper was owned by somebody who, shall we say, didn't strike me as a typical Labour voter

You would then have to declare an equivalent cost in your figs even if no money changed hands iirc

 

[Bantamzen]

I'm well aware of this, probably since before you were born in fact. The reason I even used the word, in brackets, was to indicate that he'd never even won a General Election as party leader thus showing he had some democratic public legitimacy.

What is "democratic public legitimacy"? You say you understand that we don't directly vote for the role of Prime Minister, but then talk about this fallacy? Sunak was voted as a Member of Parliament, then subsequently voted as leader of his party by his party which gave him the role of Prime Minister.

There is no "democratic public legitimacy".

 

[Vexed]

I usually get a couple Conservative leaflets a year and double that from Lib Dems. Never had anything from Labour.

Just got a Lib Dem newspaper-style leaflet through the door, the "St Albans Herald" which is "paid for by the Lib Dems". Came with a letter addressed with names from the Electoral Roll.

It mostly talks about the same message as at the last general election for St Albans - Labour has no chance of winning so it's a Lib Dem vs Conservative seat.

No knock so no attempt to canvass.

 

[edwin_m]

Got a lot of stuff from the local Tory MP in the few months before the election was called, including letters indicating willingness to help out with a specific local issue. But it felt like they were trying to drum up support rather than being genuinely interested. Since the election was called, nothing but a Labour leaflet. YouTube ads have included a video from the local candidate, and a huge number of standard ones from various Shadow Cabinet members. There was a Tory one which mainly consisted of pictures of Rishi Sunak walking away - somehow seems appropriate...

 

[The Ham]

One AI is so confident of the results it's reporting them as

"The 2024 UK general election resulted in a significant victory for the Labour Party," it said.

Labour, it said, "won a majority with 467 seats" while Conservatives "experienced a substantial loss, securing only 101 seats".

The Liberal Democrats also did well in the chatbot's telling and won 46 seats.

OpenAI's ChatGPT stops answering election questions after giving wrong answers

ChatGPT has said Joe Biden won the 2024 presidential election, given specific figures for European Parliament seats and said Labour won - all elections that have yet to take place.

news.sky.com

 

[najaB]

What is "democratic public legitimacy"? You say you understand that we don't directly vote for the role of Prime Minister, but then talk about this fallacy? Sunak was voted as a Member of Parliament, then subsequently voted as leader of his party by his party which gave him the role of Prime Minister.

There is no "democratic public legitimacy".

In once sense there is - in 2019 we voted for a government based on the leader in place at the time, and with a specific set of policies set out in their manifesto. We currently have a government lead by a different person, who has a different set of policies.

So Rishi can't say that we voted for what we're getting.

 

[AntoniC]

Has anyone here been canvassed in person yet?

No.
It won`t make a difference to me as I know which way I will vote and it won`t be Tory here in Southport.
As the constituency boundaries have been changed since 2019 ( we have lost the Tory voting areas of Formby/Crosby and gained the Labour voting areas of West Lancashire upto Preston, its far more likely Labour will win and unseat the current Tory Candidate.

 

[Bantamzen]

In once sense there is - in 2019 we voted for a government based on the leader in place at the time, and with a specific set of policies set out in their manifesto. We currently have a government lead by a different person, who has a different set of policies.

So Rishi can't say that we voted for what we're getting.

And I am sure you agree that a change in policy was needed urgently after the chaos of Johnson/Truss? Or would you have preferred to put the government into a state of impasse and ask the world markets to be nice to us until we got around to a general election? Sometimes policies have to be changed as a result of ongoing situations, we can't have an election every time this might come along.

 

[najaB]

Or would you have preferred to put the government into a state of impasse and ask the world markets to be nice to us until we got around to a general election?

If the Conservatives gave a damn about the country we would have had an election after Johnson left the stage.

Sometimes policies have to be changed as a result of ongoing situations, we can't have an election every time this might come along.

Agreed that we can't have elections every time policies change, but given the significance of the changes this would have been the right thing to do.

 

[Bantamzen]

If the Conservatives gave a damn about the country we would have had an election after Johnson left the stage.

Maybe, but conversely had Truss run for leader of the Tories, and then won...

Agreed that we can't have elections every time policies change, but given the significance of the changes this would have been the right thing to do.

The significance for the UK at that time was the impending financial meltdown. There was no time for an election, at least Sunak's appointment calmed the waters enough for things to settle down and steady the ship a little bit.

 

[najaB]

The significance for the UK at that time was the impending financial meltdown. There was no time for an election, at least Sunak's appointment calmed the waters enough for things to settle down and steady the ship a little bit.

I know it feels like yesterday, but that was going on two years ago!

 

[deltic]

Personally I think door to door canvassing should be made illegal. There is simply no need for it with the variety of communication methods available today. I don't really know why politicians believe that ringing somebody's doorbell whilst they are watching Eastenders is likely to gain them any votes.

Canvassing is mainly about collecting data on who you may vote for and what issues are resonating with voters. This enables messages to be tweaked and targeted and to check whether your supporters have gone out to vote or not. It can also be used to counteract misconceptions people may have about your party's policies. I cant imagine many people are persuaded to change their vote by someone knocking on their door.

 

[Bantamzen]

I know it feels like yesterday, but that was going on two years ago!

It was, but my point stands.

 

[najaB]

It was, but my point stands.

His righting the ship took a few months. We could have had an election this time last year, rather than Sunak putting it off for as long as he could without suffering a defenestration by his back-bench MPs.

 

[DynamicSpirit]

His righting the ship took a few months. We could have had an election this time last year, rather than Sunak putting it off for as long as he could without suffering a defenestration by his back-bench MPs.

And ironically, if the state of the opinion polls is anything to go by, he would probably have done rather better last year (in the sense of losing the election by not quite such a huge margin).

 

[simonw]

I’m increasingly wondering if this was possibly a deliberate ploy to head off any kind of last minute vote of no confidence in him?

There is a story floating about that he was informed enough letters had gone in to force a leadership contest hence Sunak calling an election that his party wasn't ready for.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 8 Jun 2024 ==

No.

I have a notice on my door which says I do not welcome unexpected callers and this includes sales personnel, religious missionaries and political canvassers. There is no way my vote is going to be influenced by some chancer telling me what he and his party will do for me over the next five years. I already know that.



My father always dismissed canvassers from his chosen party quickly on the basis that there was nothing he needed from them and their time would be better spent elsewhere. Conversely he engaged in lengthy discourse with those from parties he opposed so as to eat into the time they had to persuade anybody else of their merits.

Personally I think door to door canvassing should be made illegal. There is simply no need for it with the variety of communication methods available today. I don't really know why politicians believe that ringing somebody's doorbell whilst they are watching Eastenders is likely to gain them any votes.

Canvassing isn't really about persuading people to change their mind,but is more about establishing what level of support the canvassers party has, and offering lifts on polling day, or attracting new,members/supporters. Hence why your father acted as he did.

 

[brad465]

Election Maps UK has revealed the total number of candidates each party has declared. It confirms Reform UK never really formed any pact with the Tories, standing in 611 seats, while confirming the Tories managed to find candidates in all but 1 seat (Rotherham):

x.com

x.com

LAB: 631 CON: 630 LDM: 630 GRN: 618 RFM: 611 WPB: 151 SDP: 122 SNP: 57 HER: 41 TUSC: 39 PLC: 32 REU: 26 Yorks: 26 UKIP: 25 CPA: 22 ALBA: 20

 

[takno]

Election Maps UK has revealed the total number of candidates each party has declared. It confirms Reform UK never really formed any pact with the Tories, standing in 611 seats, while confirming the Tories managed to find candidates in all but 1 seat (Rotherham):

x.com

x.com

Interesting that Alba only managed to stand 20. I was expecting them to put up at least half the Scottish constituencies

 

[Busaholic]

In once sense there is - in 2019 we voted for a government based on the leader in place at the time, and with a specific set of policies set out in their manifesto. We currently have a government lead by a different person, who has a different set of policies.

So Rishi can't say that we voted for what we're getting.

Quite so.

 

[Magdalia]

But the reason they knock is because it works. Mind you the objective of canvassing isn’t really to change peoples minds it’s to assess the strength of your support. So you need to listen to people to do that.

Canvassing is mainly about collecting data on who you may vote for and what issues are resonating with voters. This enables messages to be tweaked and targeted and to check whether your supporters have gone out to vote or not. It can also be used to counteract misconceptions people may have about your party's policies. I cant imagine many people are persuaded to change their vote by someone knocking on their door.

Canvassing isn't really about persuading people to change their mind,but is more about establishing what level of support the canvassers party has, and offering lifts on polling day, or attracting new,members/supporters.

Both of my parents were party members, so I grew up seeing the party electoral machine from the inside. On polling day I was a small and not very willing cog in that machine.

Back then politics was much simpler than it is now:

• nearly everyone voted for the 2 major parties
• support was mostly tribal, floating voters were a small minority
• nearly everyone voted in person, postal votes were hard to get

The prime purpose of canvassing was to identify support, especially new names on the electoral roll. It was a means to an end, which was to get the identified supporters to vote on polling day.

Those who have voted in person will probably be familiar with party "tellers" asking for their polling card number, as they enter or leave the polling station. This enables the party machine to identify which of their identified supporters have already voted, by crossing them off an annotated copy of the electoral roll. By teatime, it also gave the party machine a good indication of whether they were winning or losing. In the evening "knocking up" would take place, reminding identified supporters yet to vote to get to the polling station, taking them by car if necessary. A well oiled party machine concentrated its "knocking up" resources where the contest was thought to be close, ignoring constituencies where the result was regarded as a foregone conclusion.

Since then electoral politics has got a lot more complicated: more parties, more floating voters and more postal votes. I have steered clear of party politics as an adult, so I don't know the extent to which the party electoral machines still operate. But I have been involved in other voluntary activity, where the volunteers are usually much more concerned with the process than the outcome. I suspect that a lot of this activity is because it is what volunteers like to do, not because it has a significant impact on the result.