UK General Election 2024

[HSTEd]

So toxic that he gets these majorities in his constituency?
Compared to the charismatic Farage, who was beaten by a man in a dolphin suit

At least one time that Farage failed to get elected, one member of the Conservative Party election team was convicted for breaking electoral law in order to stop him.
They failed to report electoral expenses in the constituency.

 

[edwin_m]

I'm not saying attempting to rejoin is a priority right now, but who knows in future, say 10 or more years down the line, when the pro-Brexit generations will be only a minority of the electorate and the Conservative Party will probably be a centre-right party once again, no longer interested in campaigning for outdated 2010s and 2020s causes.
...
I have to say, and (sorry to be blunt) this is a very depressing and fatalistic view of the world. The question is, why is the UK in decline when it wasn't in the past? What can be changed to "reset" things to how they were in the past? And what is the cause: Covid, Russia, Brexit, or something else? I'd like to see "learned bodies" try to figure out how to fix the problems rather than convincing all of us to accept a miserable life.

Covid is done and we can't turn back the clock. Russia is done and there's little we can do to bring an end to that situation - it will just have to work through and honestly I have no idea how. Brexit is also done, theoretically reversible, and the only one of the three that's not hit other countries so an obvious explanation for why we are doing worse than many. But for the reasons above and in previous posts we are stuck with it unless and until public opinion becomes overwhelming, the Tory party either reverses its line or enters a state of oblivion, and possibly the EU makes itself more palatable with a two-tier membership or abandoning "ever-closer integration".

 

[AndrewE]

I think they've just fired everybody who isn't out and out terrible at their job. On some level they probably realise that there isn't a way to even basically balance the books without tax rises and they want Labour to take the blame for that, and they may well realise that Trump coming in is going to make like interesting for anybody else in power anywhere, but I strongly doubt that they are effective enough to deliberately throw an election.

I suspect that there are several things going on behind the current public face of the Tory shenanigans (No ****, Sherlock!)

1) they know that they - through continuing austerity - have destroyed most of the once-trusted state institutions (e.g. the courts/criminal justice system) and bankrupted the country with the ludicrous pretence that you can have an effective western economy with a decent infrastructure, welfare state etc but that taxes can fall continually. See https://www.theguardian.com/busines...-face-uk-public-services-on-brink-of-collapse (Incoming ministers ‘will face UK public services on brink of collapse’
Institute for Government calls for ‘credible vision’ to tackle crisis engulfing NHS, prisons and local councils)

2 They can see Labour being in government next(!) but are doing all they can to spoil their chances of putting things right or getting the credit for it. The Tories don't give a damn about the state of the country and the chances of repairing the damage they have done, just their chances of getting back in in 2029, which will be higher if Labour get the flack for taxing to spend on repairing our infrastructure

3 Part of the "salting the earth" - even if it is the country they claim to be loyal to - is damaging our relationships with countries which might help the next government. Hence Sumak starting off doing the right thing over the D-Day commemorative events, but sliding away when a European perspective developed. I bet that (in the same way that special advisors told the Treasure what to cost to generate the "£2000 extra tax" claim) the same people planned it so that he could show his face in the morning, but antagonise the people and nations that we shall need to work with if we are to make much progress (on all the things with an international context) from now on.

 

[najaB]

Hence Sumak starting off doing the right thing over the D-Day commemorative events, but sliding away when a European perspective developed. I bet that (in the same way that special advisors told the Treasure what to cost to generate the "£2000 extra tax" claim) the same people planned it so that he could show his face in the morning, but antagonise the people and nations that we shall need to work with if we are to make much progress (on all the things with an international context) from now on.

Thing is, nobody is going to blame anyone other than Sunak for that. Nobody is seeing it as the UK snubbing the commemorations, they see it as him personally snubbing them.

 

[AndrewE]

Thing is, nobody is going to blame anyone other than Sunak for that. Nobody is seeing it as the UK snubbing the commemorations, they see it as him personally snubbing them.

Nobody here maybe, but do you know how it will be reported abroad? I am afraid that we (all) get tarred by the stupid boorish behaviour of the Brexiteers.

 

[brad465]

Helicopter crash, surely...?

He wouldn't be the first world leader involved in one this year.

 

[takno]

Nobody here maybe, but do you know how it will be reported abroad? I am afraid that we (all) get tarred by the stupid boorish behaviour of the Brexiteers.

Le Monde is quite gleefully blaming Sunak rather than the UK: https://www.lemonde.fr/internationa...les-bevues-dans-sa-campagne_6237905_3210.html

La Republicca covers the fact that Sunak left to do an interview and that Starmer stayed: https://www.repubblica.it/esteri/20...ni_intervista-423191747/?ref=RHVS-BG-P9-S2-T1

Aftenposten in Norway didn't really cover it, although they did carry an article about how Farage has ruined Sunak's month

Broadly I'd say that where it's been covered it's been put squarely at the feet of Sunak

 

[AlterEgo]

3 Part of the "salting the earth" - even if it is the country they claim to be loyal to - is damaging our relationships with countries which might help the next government. Hence Sumak starting off doing the right thing over the D-Day commemorative events, but sliding away when a European perspective developed.

...and leaving the next PM to have the whole afternoon talking to EU leaders, the US President, and Zelensky?

Not everything is 4D chess.

The Conservative Party are just thick.

 

[dgl]

You can understand Sunak not staying and talking to the other world leaders because in a few weeks it won't be his job anymore, doubt they'd have wanted to speak to him anyway, might as well speak with the person that is going to matter!

 

[AndrewE]

Thanks for those perspectives, you have cheered me up!

 

[HSTEd]

The electoral campaign up to now has not really convinced me that anyone is going to do much in the next parliament.

We also have various think tanks, including both left and right leaning ones, accusing both parties of misleading the public about the scale of the challenge to the public finances.

It appears that whatever happens it will be five more years of crumbling public services and declining standards of living.
Labour's 300,000 a year housebuilding target basically just takes things back to 2018, which was already woefully inadequate!

And Labour's energy policy appears to be Robin Hood energy writ large rather than a fundamental rethink of the energy system.
Must admit it is not really an optimistic time to be a policy wonk.

 

[birchesgreen]

I'm hearing the Tories failed to get a candidate in place for Rotherham in time, did any other parties miss out?

 

[Gloster]

I'm hearing the Tories failed to get a candidate in place for Rotherham in time, did any other parties miss out?

I read a few minutes ago that the Conservatives only failed to find a candidate in one constituency, so presumably that is it. We will no doubt find out which other constituencies have missed out on a party, but the Conservatives seem to have got the worst of MPs who aren’t interested in being one when the bad times roll.

 

[nw1]

I'm hearing the Tories failed to get a candidate in place for Rotherham in time, did any other parties miss out?

Oh dear, and they came within 3121 votes of taking it last time!

They're so interested in "levelling up" that they can't even be bothered to field a candidate for a northern seat.

Wikipedia (usual caveats apply) lists a wide range of candidates from all manner of parties for the seat. Notably absent are the Conservatives.

 

[JonathanH]

I have to say this is a very depressing and fatalistic view of the world. The question is, why is the UK in decline when it wasn't in the past?

A gradual offshoring of our economy and the sale of the country to the rest of the world.

Essentially the inability to improve productivity in an economy based on services, the level of imported goods, the amount of debt, all things which have increased through the recent past.

I don't think anyone really has the answer, as pointed out below...

We also have various think tanks, including both left and right leaning ones, accusing both parties of misleading the public about the scale of the challenge to the public finances.

Yes, I don't think they can put their finger on how it could be sorted out, just the problem, but it is clear that there is a problem.

 

[Gloster]

Oh dear, and they came within 3121 votes of taking it last time!

They're so interested in "levelling up" that they can't even be bothered to field a candidate for a northern seat.

Wikipedia (usual caveats apply) lists a wide range of candidates from all manner of parties for the seat. Notably absent are the Conservatives.

To be honest, I would think that this is more incompetence and general cack-up, rather than a deliberate decision. Everything has had to be done at a rush, what with the sudden haemorrhage of willing cannon fodder, so I would suspect that there will be one or two gaps among the other parties. A particular problem is the stupid comments that prospective candidates once made on Instagram, Facebook, and all that lot, which suddenly get discovered: sometimes it may be better to have no candidate in a seat you aren’t going to win than one with a load of unsavoury baggage.

 

[HSTEd]

Yes, I don't think they can put their finger on how it could be sorted out, just the problem, but it is clear that there is a problem.

I'm rather more cynical than that at this point.

The major parties are desperately courting parts of the electorate that have done very well for the past few decades and are loathe to do more than tinker.

Lots of votes will be lost if house prices fall or if very popular but unsustainable policies are dropped..

The image that everything is fine held up until post Brexit, but this problem far precedes that.
We also have less technical capability to do things in government, and technical knowledge in parliament than we've had historically.

And to top it all off we have the one problem we really don't know how to solve - the demographic issues.
Forgive me if a government by either a billionaire or a sixty plus year old lawyer seems unlikely to move the dial

 

[Magdalia]

the sale of the country to the rest of the world.

A lot of that has already happened. Some examples include:

• many privatised utility companies
• a lot of high end central London domestic property
• most of the football Premier League
• most of the horse racing industry

 

[JKF]

A particular problem is the stupid comments that prospective candidates once made on Instagram, Facebook, and all that lot, which suddenly get discovered: sometimes it may be better to have no candidate in a seat you aren’t going to win than one with a load of unsavoury baggage.

I can only imagine the stuff that will come out about various Reform candidates, given the party is unlikely to have the kind of infrastructure to carry out detailed vetting that the bigger parties do, and likely had to rush through getting candidates in place. There will be all kinds of racism, pro-Covid lunacy and swivel-eyed nonsense.

I suspect this won’t get much further than public shaming on Twitter as I get the feeling much of the media will want Reform to gain momentum as some sort of plucky outsider to the establishment parties, as such a story will create a lot of clicks.

 

[JamesT]

Oh dear, and they came within 3121 votes of taking it last time!

They're so interested in "levelling up" that they can't even be bothered to field a candidate for a northern seat.

Wikipedia (usual caveats apply) lists a wide range of candidates from all manner of parties for the seat. Notably absent are the Conservatives.

There’s now news reports that the prospective candidate withdrew very late.

No Conservative candidate fielded in Rotherham

The Conservatives will have no candidate on the ballot paper in Rotherham on 4 July.

www.bbc.co.uk

When nominations closed earlier, the party's chosen candidate for Rotherham, Laila Cunningham, was marked as "nomination withdrawn".

Given the need to get signatures etc. to have a candidate properly registered, I can see that if she’s pulled out today it could be too late to get someone else even if they wanted to.

 

[Busaholic]

You can understand Sunak not staying and talking to the other world leaders because in a few weeks it won't be his job anymore, doubt they'd have wanted to speak to him anyway, might as well speak with the person that is going to matter!

He's our (unelected) Prime Minister, being paid by us to, in this case, represent us at the 80th anniversary of an incredibly significant moment in the Second World War, itself the most significant event in 20th Century British history. That there can be any argument that he committed a massive and unforgiveable error by his nonchalant disregard for the feelings of so many by his casual withdrawal I totally reject, and by way of true regret and reparation I suggest he take a leaf from the book of John Profumo and retire forthwith from public life without waiting for his defenestration on the night of 4th/5th June. May the Tories suffer their worst ever election defeat then. RIP, no flowers by public demand.

 

[JonathanH]

A lot of that has already happened. Some examples include:

• many privatised utility companies
• a lot of high end central London domestic property
• most of the football Premier League
• most of the horse racing industry

Indeed, yes, not to mention people employed by overseas companies. The major corollary of that is that it is very difficult to generate any new wealth because we have already sold the rights to that income stream.

 

[thenorthern]

Interesting thing for the railways is that now Arriva has been sold only 1 franchise is wholly owned by an EU state-owned railway company which is C2C owned by the Italian Railways.

I know at the last election it was pointed out that I think 9 train companies were run by state-owned EU operators (London Overground, C2C, Chiltern, CrossCountry, East Midlands Railway, Grand Central, Greater Anglia, Northern and ScotRail) several EU state operators also part owned franchises.

How times change.

 

[dgl]

He's our (unelected) Prime Minister, being paid by us to, in this case, represent us at the 80th anniversary of an incredibly significant moment in the Second World War, itself the most significant event in 20th Century British history. That there can be any argument that he committed a massive and unforgiveable error by his nonchalant disregard for the feelings of so many by his casual withdrawal I totally reject, and by way of true regret and reparation I suggest he take a leaf from the book of John Profumo and retire forthwith from public life without waiting for his defenestration on the night of 4th/5th June. May the Tories suffer their worst ever election defeat then. RIP, no flowers by public demand.

Quite, he should "fall on his sword" as it were. Well on the front page of the Express he's truly very sorry, which is clear BS. Rishi only cares about two things, himself and money.

 

[The Ham]

You missed a bit out

I can do better:

ideal scenario: labour landslide, change electoral system, Sunak losses his seat to Count Binface, keep Tories out for ever.

Actually: Sunak played a blinder yesterday. Well done that man!

Labour's 300,000 a year housebuilding target basically just takes things back to 2018, which was already woefully inadequate!

To give some perspective though, this target is 50% higher than the Tory target. There is a bit of a balance to be had though, in that if you say the target too high you run the risk of upsetting those who are looking at the potential of lots of housing coming their way and a higher target would make them fear even more coming their way.

There's also some political cover, in that 300,000 was the Tory target not that long ago, so it becomes hard for the Tories to attack it, as a valid response when attacked on it is to ask "why the target has reduced, is it because housing has become more affordable?" or "why the target has reduced, have you reduced immigration?"

 

[YorkRailFan]

In an interesting turn of events, the former Reform candidate for Clacton (before Farage came in) will stand as an Independent in Clacton against Farage.

NEW: Former Reform UK candidate for Clacton, Anthony Mack, is standing against Nigel Farage

x.com

x.com

This could potentially spilt the right wing vote completely as whilst Farage is the name and face, Mack had local backing and was known in the area.

 

[dangie]

After 14 years in government, why are the Conservatives telling us what they will do if they get re-elected into power? Haven’t they had plenty of time to do that already? What they should be saying is that we’ll carry on as we have been doing. At least the voting public may believe them!

 

[The Ham]

After 14 years in government, why are the Conservatives telling us what they will do if they get re-elected into power? Haven’t they had plenty of time to do that already? What they should be saying is that we’ll carry on as we have been doing. At least the voting public may believe them!

I suspect that a few people don't want more of the same, but I could be wrong (feel free to correct me if you think otherwise).

 

[Snow1964]

After 14 years in government, why are the Conservatives telling us what they will do if they get re-elected into power? Haven’t they had plenty of time to do that already? What they should be saying is that we’ll carry on as we have been doing. At least the voting public may believe them!

And the odd thing is Labour Party are saying going to do much same thing as Conservatives are promising.

So could just as easily wonder if one lot didn't manage to do it in practice, could Labour also fail to do it in practice. Just another set of potentially empty promises

 

[LNW-GW Joint]

I have to say, and (sorry to be blunt) this is a very depressing and fatalistic view of the world. The question is, why is the UK in decline when it wasn't in the past? What can be changed to "reset" things to how they were in the past? And what is the cause: Covid, Russia, Brexit, or something else? I'd like to see "learned bodies" try to figure out how to fix the problems rather than convincing all of us to accept a miserable life.

In a word, productivity.
There's a lot to that, but for decades we have not been prepared to change quickly enough to catch up with the leaders (variously the US, Japan, China etc).
Lack of investment (the city prefers to lend money overseas for greater returns), unwillingness of labour to change working practices, etc.
We were last a world power in 1914, but WW1 and WW2 put paid to that, plus the loss of empire.
The Tories still think were are a world power, without the economic clout of the US or EU (and now China).
Brexit was the latest spiral downwards, taking us outside the collective power base of the EU and weakening both us and them.
No wonder Putin is smiling.