Two competing bids for London-Blackpool

[ChilternHenry]

Their plan appears to refer to new trains - Section 4.6 in the link below:

http://content.yudu.com/Library/A1tf81/WCMLTrackAccessRight/resources/index.htm?referrerUrl=

thanks for that, but I doubt they'd be built in time, so they'd either have to find a stop gap measure until they were made, or are tocs and open access allowed to subcontract out?

 

[ainsworth74]

thanks for that, but I doubt they'd be built in time, so they'd either have to find a stop gap measure until they were made, or are tocs and open access allowed to subcontract out?

Well HT subleased Anglia 170s until their own were availible and HT also leased an 86+Mk3s to run services between Kings Cross and Doncaster for a while. So there is previous for OAOs to borrow stock or temporarily lease stock.

However VT are unlikely to want to help out the competition by leasing 221s or 390s+57s (assuming any were even available) and XC clearly don't have the units to spare, so I don't see where they'd find 125mph tilting stock from to borrow.

 

[Darren R]

I realize this is probably a somewhat heretical thing to say on a railway forum - but just what exactly is the point of running these proposed services? The reason Blackpool and Barrow-in-Furness lost their through trains to Euston in the first place was surely they just weren't being used? I just can't see there is sufficient demand to justify running them; certainly not to Alliance's (pie in the sky) proposed two hourly frequency.

Even in days of yore when BR ran The Lancashire Pullman service from BPN at 0630 arriving at EUS just after 10am, on the odd occasion I caught it at Preston it was mostly empty upon arrival at Preston. Despite Blackpool Borough Council's attempts to persuade me otherwise, the real reason people aren't coming up from London on the train is not because of the supposed hassle of changing at Preston because there is no through service - it's because going to Blackpool is just not worth the hassle of even a direct three hour train journey. The main source of demand for a through service to the capital is always going to be for people who live in the Blackpool area going to London, not vice versa. With that in mind, Virgin's planned two trains per day each way makes far more sense than Alliance's. Surely if there are spare paths on the core WCML to be had, there are much better ways to use them that would benefit far more?

 

[rebmcr]

The reason Blackpool and Barrow-in-Furness lost their through trains to Euston in the first place was surely they just weren't being used?

Except passenger numbers are booming, so now is a good time to see if the situation has improved.

 

[MidnightFlyer]

Pretty expensive and complex way just to 'see' though isn't it?

 

[IanXC]

Well HT subleased Anglia 170s until their own were availible and HT also leased an 86+Mk3s to run services between Kings Cross and Doncaster for a while. So there is previous for OAOs to borrow stock or temporarily lease stock.

Although the hire in from Anglia came to an end in a hurry when the ORR changed its view on Franchised TOCs hiring stock to OAOs. I have a feeling the approval process is now far from simple, although HT have recently hired FGW 180s so its clearly not impossible.

 

[Bakerbloke]

A Carnforth - London would be great but not if it is calling at many stations en route. I'm also fed up of travelling in to Lancaster to travel North so opening up those main line platforms would be key.

 

[Xenophon PCDGS]

Do the two railway stations of Kirkham & Wesham and Poulton-le-Fylde have different rail user catchment areas ?

 

[northwichcat]

I realize this is probably a somewhat heretical thing to say on a railway forum - but just what exactly is the point of running these proposed services? The reason Blackpool and Barrow-in-Furness lost their through trains to Euston in the first place was surely they just weren't being used? I just can't see there is sufficient demand to justify running them; certainly not to Alliance's (pie in the sky) proposed two hourly frequency.

Passenger demand is higher than it was 10 years ago. Virgin and Alliance will both know how many London tickets are currently sold from Blackpool and can predict how much that will increase by if a through service was reinstated.

I think there's a lot more to Alliance's plan than just a Blackpool-London service. For instance, it would create a new direct link between Crewe, Winsford, Earlestown and Blackpool which is significantly faster than the current journey options to and from Blackpool.

 

[Deerfold]

Virgin and Alliance will both know how many London tickets are currently sold from Blackpool and can predict how much that will increase by if a through service was reinstated.

Will Alliance have access to that information?

 

[The Planner]

A Carnforth - London would be great but not if it is calling at many stations en route. I'm also fed up of travelling in to Lancaster to travel North so opening up those main line platforms would be key.

Very unlikely to get the main line platforms ever re-opened.
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Will Alliance have access to that information?

Don't see why not, they are considered as an "interested party" so they are consulted on most matters.

 

[HSTEd]

Wouldn't they need to provide 125mph compatible tilting stock otherwise they will be restricted to the WCML slows south of Rugby at least?

I thought we had 110mph stock running south of Rugby on the fast lines now anyway? (The LM fasts?)

 

[Widnes Planner]

And what would they get in the way of? The twice hourly London/Birmingham-Scotland services? The Chat Moss route has gaps in service each way, so it's really a case of sufficient gaps on the Chat Moss and WCML lining up atm. Of course that may be more tricky in future years if more trains use the Chat Moss, then again, it'll only be on that line for three or four minutes.

Well to my certain knowledge, TPE intend to run their electric services to Scotland via the Chat Moss and Golborne Jn in Dec-13, a Liverpool-Newcastle service via the Chat Moss and Manchester Victoria. These are fully committed. There is also a proposal for the ATW service between Chester and Manchester to be half-hourly, not to mention any changes upcoming with the Northern Hub. There's also plenty of freight on the WCML as well as the Virgin services.

I'd say there'll be plenty of difficulty finding a path across Newton-le-Willows on and off the WCML...

 

[merlodlliw]

I realize this is probably a somewhat heretical thing to say on a railway forum - but just what exactly is the point of running these proposed services? The reason Blackpool and Barrow-in-Furness lost their through trains to Euston in the first place was surely they just weren't being used? I just can't see there is sufficient demand to justify running them; certainly not to Alliance's (pie in the sky) proposed two hourly frequency.

Even in days of yore when BR ran The Lancashire Pullman service from BPN at 0630 arriving at EUS just after 10am, on the odd occasion I caught it at Preston it was mostly empty upon arrival at Preston. Despite Blackpool Borough Council's attempts to persuade me otherwise, the real reason people aren't coming up from London on the train is not because of the supposed hassle of changing at Preston because there is no through service - it's because going to Blackpool is just not worth the hassle of even a direct three hour train journey. The main source of demand for a through service to the capital is always going to be for people who live in the Blackpool area going to London, not vice versa. With that in mind, Virgin's planned two trains per day each way makes far more sense than Alliance's. Surely if there are spare paths on the core WCML to be had, there are much better ways to use them that would benefit far more?

VT run many Holyhead to Euston services, some early morning are very quiet until Chester, but they have to start somewhere.
As for Blackpool it appears its VT stock being redeployed, Shrewsbury is more political, but there is the huge new town of Telford without a London service
which W/S never captured, but Shropshire remains the only County in England without a direct service, so a good bargaining point.
Plus rail travel is on the increase,again the Shrewsbury service appears only a redeployment of stock.
VT of course running a once daily Wrexham to Euston & Return was put on for reasons that we all know, it was not for a Wrexham/Euston market bursting at the seams.
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Well to my certain knowledge, TPE intend to run their electric services to Scotland via the Chat Moss and Golborne Jn in Dec-13, a Liverpool-Newcastle service via the Chat Moss and Manchester Victoria. These are fully committed. There is also a proposal for the ATW service between Chester and Manchester to be half-hourly, not to mention any changes upcoming with the Northern Hub. There's also plenty of freight on the WCML as well as the Virgin services.

I'd say there'll be plenty of difficulty finding a path across Newton-le-Willows on and off the WCML...

The ATW proposal is fine, but ATW do not have the stock to run it,unless the run to Llandudno is axed to two hourly,which wont happen.

 

[hairyhandedfool]

Well to my certain knowledge, TPE intend to run their electric services to Scotland via the Chat Moss and Golborne Jn in Dec-13, a Liverpool-Newcastle service via the Chat Moss and Manchester Victoria. These are fully committed. There is also a proposal for the ATW service between Chester and Manchester to be half-hourly, not to mention any changes upcoming with the Northern Hub. There's also plenty of freight on the WCML as well as the Virgin services.

I'd say there'll be plenty of difficulty finding a path across Newton-le-Willows on and off the WCML...

AIUI, the TPE Newcastle-Liverpool service moving over from the CLC would see the Manchester Airport-Liverpool move the other way and the Scotland services would only share the line north of Newton-le-Willows (creating a gap on the Chat Moss if anything). ATW would need to find some trains to run more services (they struggle with the timetable as it is!). I can't say I have ever seen much freight on the WCML, I guess I must just be in the wrong places at the wrong times.

 

[northwichcat]

Well to my certain knowledge, TPE intend to run their electric services to Scotland via the Chat Moss and Golborne Jn in Dec-13, a Liverpool-Newcastle service via the Chat Moss and Manchester Victoria. These are fully committed.

Currently Liverpool-Newcastle is only committed for weekdays. I think the argument is not having the service on Saturdays will allow more flexible strengthening on Saturday services dependant on what events are happening.
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There is also a proposal for the ATW service between Chester and Manchester to be half-hourly, not to mention any changes upcoming with the Northern Hub

Not quite. The extra Manchester-Chester service is expected to be an extension of a Northern Calder Vale service from Victoria with the existing ATW service extended to the Airport all day after Slade Lane Junction capacity improvements.

 

[tbtc]

The extra Manchester-Chester service is expected to be an extension of a Northern Calder Vale service from Victoria with the existing ATW service extended to the Airport all day

So Chester becomes another place on the list of "places that have half of their Manchester services using Piccadilly and half of their Manchester services using Victoria"?

Would have been better to run all of the Chester services from one Manchester station IMHO.

 

[northwichcat]

So Chester becomes another place on the list of "places that have half of their Manchester services using Piccadilly and half of their Manchester services using Victoria"?

Would have been better to run all of the Chester services from one Manchester station IMHO.

When the draft North West RUS a few years back proposed switching Llandudno services to Victoria it didn't go down at all well in the consultation responses and the idea was dropped. With TPE and Airport services going to operate from Victoria it might not get as much criticism if it was proposed again. However, I think the plan is to try to avoid terminating trains at Victoria from the west and having something like Llandudno-Rochdale might not go down well with certain parties.

Chester won't be as badly off as Southport though with the Mid-Cheshire line using Piccadilly and there being potential for time savings on Mid-Cheshire services through the a potential new Stockport-Greenbank service meaning the Piccadilly-Chester can skip certain stations and also line speed improvements between Northwich and Greenbank.

 

[transmanche]

So Chester becomes another place on the list of "places that have half of their Manchester services using Piccadilly and half of their Manchester services using Victoria"?

Would have been better to run all of the Chester services from one Manchester station IMHO.

Although as some TPE services are going run from Piccadilly and some from Victoria - it maintains easy connections for through passengers to/from Chester.

 

[merlodlliw]

So Chester becomes another place on the list of "places that have half of their Manchester services using Piccadilly and half of their Manchester services using Victoria"?

Would have been better to run all of the Chester services from one Manchester station IMHO.

In old BR days all North Wales services went to Victoria when Exchange closed,

 

[Geezertronic]

I thought we had 110mph stock running south of Rugby on the fast lines now anyway? (The LM fasts?)

Yes there are, but how many services of that type can be fitted in around the 125mph 390s before service and timing performance are affected? Presumably the 110mph LM service pathing accommodates this which might not leave any room for other 110mph services

 

[Widnes Planner]

Liverpool-Newcastle via Chat Moss is committed at weekends too - it is in addition to Liverpool-Scarborough via CLC, so the Liverpool-Manchester Airport train won't be switching.

I don't know the details of the proposed ATW changes, so can't comment further on how they plan to resource it. They are separate to the Northern Hub proposals though, in that they are intended to fill a gap before this comes along in 2016.

 

[tbtc]

In old BR days all North Wales services went to Victoria when Exchange closed,

That'd be fine if they were to do it now - maybe a half hourly service from the Calder Valley to Chester and beyond (giving a direct service from North Wales to Leeds etc).

We already have the daft situation where some places (Blackpool, Southport, St Helens Junction) see some of their Manchester services depart from one station and some from another - I'd rather simplify this where possible.

(unavoidable when you are talking about situations like London to Birmingham, before anyone jumps on that bandwagon)

 

[northwichcat]

Liverpool-Newcastle via Chat Moss is committed at weekends too - it is in addition to Liverpool-Scarborough via CLC, so the Liverpool-Manchester Airport train won't be switching.

Only Monday-Friday is committed to in the proposed May 2014 timetable change. The letter TPE wrote themselves to accompany the application for a revised track access contract said the following:

TPE has provided sample weekday timetables to support its application. These set out TPE’s preferred timetable option to meet specific market demand and fulfil its franchise commitments.
....
At this time the rights sought for weekend services mirror TPE’s current Track Access Contract. It is TPE’s intention to develop a weekend proposal which utilises the additional rolling stock capacity to meet market demand. While TPE aspires to operate a similar quantum of services on Saturdays to Weekdays these proposals are not yet sufficiently validated to be brought forward for consideration.

http://www.rail-reg.gov.uk/upload/pdf/s17-fkt-submission.pdf

The new proposed timetables issued all say at the top "Sample Weekday Timetable" such as this one: http://www.rail-reg.gov.uk/upload/pdf/s17-fkt-timetable-northroute-west.pdf
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We already have the daft situation where some places (Blackpool, Southport, St Helens Junction) see some of their Manchester services depart from one station and some from another - I'd rather simplify this where possible.

In my opinion the pre-Dec 08 arrangement for Blackpool was better where there was a TPE and a Northern service every hour from Piccadilly, with the Northern service also serving Stockport as it provided much better connections for Blackpool from Cheshire and north Midlands stations. However, some people were praising the decision to have a Blackpool service from Victoria because it made it easier from their areas. So how do you decide which side to support?

 

[hairyhandedfool]

....We already have the daft situation where some places (Blackpool, Southport, St Helens Junction) see some of their Manchester services depart from one station and some from another - I'd rather simplify this where possible....

All of which is great if everyone travels to or from the Manchester station that the direct train would go to/from, but what of those who travel further afield? And what of those who currently go to Victoria as it is closer to where they need to go, but would have to go to Piccadilly, or change at Salford Crescent, if it were "simplified"?

What if you were an Urmston resident who has to travel to Wigan everyday, but found the "simplified" service meant the train you had been getting now goes to Bolton and all the Wigan trains now go from Victoria. How would you feel about that?

 

[WatcherZero]

As long as theres at least an hourly frequency I think most people doing medium-long distance travellers from say Southport would prefer a choice of destinations, on the way back if your that desperate to get home as fast as possible you can simply change at an intermediate station like Salford Crescent.

But back to the original point of Blackpool Virgins initial service is limited by the rolling stock they have available, they did want to eventually want to build up to five services a day each way in their franchise bid when new rolling stock started arriving releasing Voyagers. At least initially is there not room for both operators with Virgin operating early morning and late evening services and the OAO picking up services at more reasonable hours during the day when Virgin has no spare stock to operate them?

 

[merlodlliw]

Liverpool-Newcastle via Chat Moss is committed at weekends too - it is in addition to Liverpool-Scarborough via CLC, so the Liverpool-Manchester Airport train won't be switching.

I don't know the details of the proposed ATW changes, so can't comment further on how they plan to resource it. They are separate to the Northern Hub proposals though, in that they are intended to fill a gap before this comes along in 2016.

At the open meeting in Wrexham in March, The commercial Director of ATW Mike Bagshaw told us ATW are party to the Northern Hub proposals and are attending meetings as a stakeholder.

 

[LNW-GW Joint]

As long as theres at least an hourly frequency I think most people doing medium-long distance travellers from say Southport would prefer a choice of destinations, on the way back if your that desperate to get home as fast as possible you can simply change at an intermediate station like Salford Crescent.

But back to the original point of Blackpool Virgins initial service is limited by the rolling stock they have available, they did want to eventually want to build up to five services a day each way in their franchise bid when new rolling stock started arriving releasing Voyagers. At least initially is there not room for both operators with Virgin operating early morning and late evening services and the OAO picking up services at more reasonable hours during the day when Virgin has no spare stock to operate them?

You mean like the situation at Hull, with EC and HT sharing services?

As I see it, the DfT has essentially added Shrewsbury and Blackpool to the WC franchise map (it wasn't in the spec for the recently abandoned bids).
If Alliance had stock available then some compromise might be possible, but for the forseeable future that will not apply.
Alliance are after the "10th path" out of Euston which they would populate with hourly trains to various destinations.
Virgin's (and First's) expansion plans were also based on utilising this path. They can't both have it.
Alliance are just a nuisance until they can run trains.
The ORR said only 60% of the GNWR paths in their bid will not conflict with other operators (that's in the current timetable).

I predict Virgin will get the OK but only for two years or so while Alliance's bid is reviewed along with a timetable recast.
But unless DB/Arriva fork out for new trains for GNWR nothing is going to change.

 

[Stats]

Only Monday-Friday is committed to in the proposed May 2014 timetable change.

Weekends too...
TPE's recent Track Access supplementary agreement application has 14 eastbound paths Liverpool-Newcastle Monday-Saturday and 11 on Sundays.
http://www.networkrail.co.uk/browse...4.05 TPE - 1st SA - closing date 7 April 2013

This proposed supplemental agreement will significantly enhance the capacity and frequency of TPE’s transpennine services Mondays - Saturdays, by:
 introducing a new Liverpool – Newcastle service via Manchester Victoria utilising the enhanced infrastructure capability and investments made in the Chat Moss route. Increasing the frequency of fast Liverpool – Manchester services from 3 to 4 services per hour and fast services between Manchester – Leeds from 4 to 5 trains per hour;
 substantially reducing journey times, most notably to: 32 minutes Liverpool – Manchester (down from 46 mins) and 3 hours Liverpool – Newcastle (down from 3 hours 30 minutes including a connection); and,
 strengthening services on a number of corridors, most notably Cleethorpes – Doncaster – Sheffield – Manchester & Hull – Selby – Leeds – Manchester, with additional vehicles being provided on many services.
A significant amount of supporting information, including substantial benefits to rail users and the wider economy was provided with the Section 17 application. The detailed reports referred in that application have now been shared with ORR.
In addition improvement in the Sunday timetable are proposed including: more through links between Newcastle – Liverpool and Manchester – Hull, greater capacity and reduced journey times on the routes outlined above.

 

[Darren R]

Passenger demand is higher than it was 10 years ago. Virgin and Alliance will both know how many London tickets are currently sold from Blackpool and can predict how much that will increase by if a through service was reinstated.

I think there's a lot more to Alliance's plan than just a Blackpool-London service. For instance, it would create a new direct link between Crewe, Winsford, Earlestown and Blackpool which is significantly faster than the current journey options to and from Blackpool.

Knowing how many London tickets are currently sold from Blackpool is one thing, but predicting how much that will increase is quite another. I know various computer models are used by TOCs, NR and DaFT, but just how accurate are they? And is there any real evidence to suggest - on a route such as this with frequent services - that the (re-)introduction of through services actually generates extra passenger numbers? I can see that on some routes (such as those opperated by CrossCountry for example) that a direct train makes all the difference between passengers going by train or not. If there was no XC then passengers travelling from say Newcastle to Bristol probably wouldn't bother because it would be such a major hassle. But this isn't the case with Blackpool (or Barrow to some extent.) There are frequent and soon to become more frequent and faster services between BPN and Preston connecting with fast and frequent trains to EUS. Unless direct trains really do increase passenger numbers significantly, I'm not convinced there is much of a business case apart from the two trains as planned by Virgin.

As for Alliance's proposals, I appreciate new transport links open up new travel opportunities, but I don't believe the rush of extra passengers travelling from Winsford, Earlestown and Newton-le-Willows to Blackpool and Barrow will be enough to make the services economic.