Speculation on West Midlands Fleet Plans

[Class172]

I think Abellio are trying to correct the mistake made by DfT that LM could release a Sprinter for every 172 they received.

Perhaps also the mistake of not taking up the extra order of 172s that was available for LM, which if I recall was an option when they were being delivered.

 

[ChrisHogan]

Perhaps also the mistake of not taking up the extra order of 172s that was available for LM, which if I recall was an option when they were being delivered.

No, the DfT wouldn't support more than 69 vehicles as it was another of the Labour Government's "no growth" franchises (apart from the Trent Valley service). Govia had options for up to 95 Class 172 vehicles. LM managed to convince the DfT that 69 was insufficient and that it needed to hang onto the six 150 vehicles. We have been suffering from the DfT's decision for the last decade.

 

[Starmill]

24m vehicles and 2+2 seating would give them a nice InterCity feel anyway, particularly if the seriously classy interior scheme from the East Anglia units (dark grey seats with colour highlighting, fake wood) is used. The Scottish Class 380s, which are similar, do have a curiously IC feel for what is basically a slightly posh suburban EMU.

Yes, I'd be surprised if the WCML fleet isn't all 110mph.

It isn't curious.

It's very simple. The train specified as a commuter train for large numbers of short journeys feels more like an intercity train than the other trains (e.g 700 or 377) specified for basically the same job because the fittings are high quality. Transport Scotland required a nice layout, pleasant seats, good ride quality, air conditioning that's effective and reliable, sensibly designed toilets in sufficient number, WiFi that actually works, tables and armsrests but still plenty of space for convivial standing and high quality fittings to achieve all of this. The reason it feels good is not because it's actually meant for intercity passengers, it's because they haven't simply chosen the cheapest of everything when doing their procurement, and that seems to be what has happened elsewhere - particularly with a lot of Bombardier products.

 

[Class172]

No, the DfT wouldn't support more than 69 vehicles as it was another of the Labour Government's "no growth" franchises (apart from the Trent Valley service). Govia had options for up to 95 Class 172 vehicles. LM managed to convince the DfT that 69 was insufficient and that it needed to hang onto the six 150 vehicles. We have been suffering from the DfT's decision for the last decade.

Thanks for the info, I hadn't realised it was "no growth" franchise. When the LM franchise started I was still at primary school so that's probably the cause of me misinterpreting the situation — at least you have finally provided clarity for me.

 

[js1000]

Hope Northern look at retaining/expanding the 323 fleet if possible. The 319s are hopeless hand-me-downs that are due for the scrapheap whereas the 323s are nippy, spacious and well suited to their job south of Manchester.

In an ideal world, it would make sense for Northern to lease the 323 fleet on existing routes and amend (assume they can't cancel) the contract with Eversholt and CAF to build more DMUs instead of EMUs. As some have said on here, Northern has some extremely DMU sets that are on their last legs too. Kill two birds with one stone etc.

 

[ChrisHogan]

Thanks for the info, I hadn't realised it was "no growth" franchise. When the LM franchise started I was still at primary school so that's probably the cause of me misinterpreting the situation — at least you have finally provided clarity for me.

Lots of franchises relet in the 2005-2010 period were effectively 'no growth': LM, Northern, XC, Wales & Borders, the ex-RR bits of Anglia and EM, and the ex-NSE/RR bits of Greater Western. All the time passenger numbers were growing which is why so many trains are now overcrowded today.

 

[390112A]

I do not know how reliable Wikipedia is but has anyone else noticed that Wikipedia suggests the new franchise owner will not inherit the class 172s does anybody know why ?

P sorry if this has already been addressed elsewhere

 

[tomuk]

No. The Snow Hill lines needs a lot more than 80 vehicles. It already has 69 plus a pair of 170/6s in the am peak (and a four-car 170/153 combination all afternoon). The announcement is clear that that the existing trains will be refurbished and supported by the extra vehicles.

Although the Snow Hill Lines may need more stock it doesn't need more than double the current amount.

carriages will be fully refurbished and supported by investment in 80 brand new diesel carriages introduced from 2020 dedicated to operating services in and around Birmingham

Interpreting the announcement I read it as the 172s are staying on the Snow Hills, albeit refurbished.

The new stock will replace all the other DMUs (150, 153, 170). As the new units will be CAF 195 or diesel Flirts they will be more suited to the Shrewsbury and Hereford runs plus the 2tph Worcester and Stratfords to 'support' the 172s.

Bedford-Bletchley - 2x 2car 172

 

[Bletchleyite]

In an ideal world, it would make sense for Northern to lease the 323 fleet on existing routes and amend (assume they can't cancel) the contract with Eversholt and CAF to build more DMUs instead of EMUs. As some have said on here, Northern has some extremely DMU sets that are on their last legs too. Kill two birds with one stone etc.

The Northern DMU order is barely adequate so I can very much see the sense in this, and it might well be possible to amend the contract if both are being built on the same bodyshell.

Perhaps a further sensible amendment would be from 2 and 3-car DMUs to 3 and 4-car.

 

[northwichcat]

Lots of franchises relet in the 2005-2010 period were effectively 'no growth': LM, Northern, XC, Wales & Borders, the ex-RR bits of Anglia and EM, and the ex-NSE/RR bits of Greater Western. All the time passenger numbers were growing which is why so many trains are now overcrowded today.

Which is why LM couldn't just keep the 150s. FGW, Northern and EMT also proved to DfT they needed more capacity. (EMT got 4 x 156s from Northern and Northern got 4 x 150s from LM as compensation.) Then on top of that DfT wanted TPE to cover the Manchester to Scotland route using 185s so that Voyagers were freed up for enhancements to Euston services, which led to Northern being required to run additional Manchester to Preston services to plug the void left by TPE, which again required released 150s from LM.

 

[sd0733]

I do not know how reliable Wikipedia is but has anyone else noticed that Wikipedia suggests the new franchise owner will not inherit the class 172s does anybody know why ?

P sorry if this has already been addressed elsewhere

They will inherit the 172s otherwise there would be nothing to run the franchise with until new stock arrived.
80 additional coaches are being ordered for Snow Hill but won't be delivered for a few years and even then are unlikely to see off the 172 fleet.

Welcome to the forum too!

 

[northwichcat]

I do not know how reliable Wikipedia is but has anyone else noticed that Wikipedia suggests the new franchise owner will not inherit the class 172s does anybody know why ?

P sorry if this has already been addressed elsewhere

Some people make silly edits on Wikipedia. For example, someone removed a referenced claim that Northern are getting the 150/0s in 2019 and their reason for doing so was simply they've been painted green so they aren't leaving the franchise!

I imagine in the case of the 172s someone read that Snow Hill lines are getting new trains and added 2 and 2 together and got 7.

 

[47802]

Although the Snow Hill Lines may need more stock it doesn't need more than double the current amount.

Interpreting the announcement I read it as the 172s are staying on the Snow Hills, albeit refurbished.

The new stock will replace all the other DMUs (150, 153, 170). As the new units will be CAF 195 or diesel Flirts they will be more suited to the Shrewsbury and Hereford runs plus the 2tph Worcester and Stratfords to 'support' the 172s.

Bedford-Bletchley - 2x 2car 172

Surely some or all the 170 will be staying otherwise its not much of an increase.

 

[sd0733]

Surely some or all the 170 will be staying otherwise its not much of an increase.

I believe that the non 172 diesel fleet is currently:
2 car 150x3- 6 vehicles
1 car 153x7- 7 vehicles
2 car 170x17- 34 vehicles
3 car 170x6- 18 vehicles.

A few vehicles will be saved by the Rugeley electrification but with Shrewsbury going half hourly that will more than make up for the displacement of diesels from Rugeley.
So if all the non 172 fleet did go it would lead to an increase of just 15 vehicles. Considering all the timetable and capacity improvements that are wanted that does seem a very small increase so it does look likely that the 170 fleet would be staying put either fully or in part.

 

[Mordac]

I believe that the non 172 diesel fleet is currently:
2 car 150x3- 6 vehicles
1 car 153x7- 7 vehicles
2 car 170x17- 34 vehicles
3 car 170x6- 18 vehicles.

A few vehicles will be saved by the Rugeley electrification but with Shrewsbury going half hourly that will more than make up for the displacement of diesels from Rugeley.
So if all the non 172 fleet did go it would lead to an increase of just 15 vehicles. Considering all the timetable and capacity improvements that are wanted that does seem a very small increase so it does look likely that the 170 fleet would be staying put either fully or in part.

8 153s not seven

 

[Bletchleyite]

An interesting question is what will happen to the Stourbridge branch. I just had a ride on it this afternoon[1], and the units are looking and sounding incredibly knackered. Perhaps a good place for another 230? Even perhaps a battery powered one?

Re the 172s they are quite nice but suffering from the Bombardier (former Adtranz) build quality issues as most Turbostars do. But re-powder-coat all the panels and metal stuff and add armrests and tables, and remove the side-facing seats and respace the existing ones, and they'd be quite nice regional express units. The seats are decent enough in and of themselves.

[1] Using a LM free pass I got two of for allowing them to use a Tweet I sent about their Wifi being better than VT's on a poster, which they haven't actually done but have sent me the passes anyway. Amusingly when I scratched off 2017 underneath was printed 2014. The only guard to question it so far (it looks incredibly faked) was the one on the PPM!

 

[Class172]

Re the 172s they are quite nice but suffering from the Bombardier (former Adtranz) build quality issues as most Turbostars do. But re-powder-coat all the panels and metal stuff and add armrests and tables, and remove the side-facing seats and respace the existing ones, and they'd be quite nice regional express units. The seats are decent enough in and of themselves.

The 172s as far as I know would be mechanically quite capable as regional express units, with a 100mph top speed and good acceleration; as you say they'd just need an interior to match.

[1] Using a LM free pass I got two of for allowing them to use a Tweet I sent about their Wifi being better than VT's on a poster, which they haven't actually done but have sent me the passes anyway. Amusingly when I scratched off 2017 underneath was printed 2014. The only guard to question it so far (it looks incredibly faked) was the one on the PPM!

I do wonder if your pass was one of those left over from the reimbursement of season ticket holders a few years ago (that they've just put new dates on the scratch part), following the period when many trains were cancelled due to staff shortages — of course I'm just guessing here as I don't know what your pass looks like.

 

[ChrisHogan]

An interesting question is what will happen to the Stourbridge branch. I just had a ride on it this afternoon[1], and the units are looking and sounding incredibly knackered. Perhaps a good place for another 230? Even perhaps a battery powered one?

You can't run the timetable with anything bigger than a 139. You would have to drop back to 5 tph.

I don't recognise the two units being in any way knackered although 139001 did fail in the platform on Thursday morning.

 

[ChrisHogan]

A few vehicles will be saved by the Rugeley electrification but with Shrewsbury going half hourly that will more than make up for the displacement of diesels from Rugeley.
So if all the non 172 fleet did go it would lead to an increase of just 15 vehicles. Considering all the timetable and capacity improvements that are wanted that does seem a very small increase so it does look likely that the 170 fleet would be staying put either fully or in part.

There are currently peak hour extras on the Shrewsbury line run by LM (2 am, 1 pm); these units go onto Tyseley during the day. Running 2tph all day simply means they stay in service all day.

 

[Bletchleyite]

You can't run the timetable with anything bigger than a 139. You would have to drop back to 5 tph.

It might be a bit over capacity, but you can run it with anything you like. Perhaps a single-car variant could be produced by putting a cab onto the other end of a driving vehicle?

 

[ChrisHogan]

It might be a bit over capacity, but you can run it with anything you like. Perhaps a single-car variant could be produced by putting a cab onto the other end of a driving vehicle?

Why change anything? The present service runs perfectly well although a few peak hour trains are rather crowded.

 

[tomuk]

A few vehicles will be saved by the Rugeley electrification but with Shrewsbury going half hourly that will more than make up for the displacement of diesels from Rugeley.

The hourly Shrewsbury stopper is usually 2x170 sets (4-6 cars) and off peak mostly empty so can go half hourly simply by runnng as one set. (2 or 3 car).

If you read the franchise announcement most service increases are at weekends - no more stock needed.

And increases in the peaks are spun as thousands extra seats in peak hours this doesn't amount to much when those thousands are spread across all the various services arriving in the peak hours.

 

[Bletchleyite]

Why change anything? The present service runs perfectly well although a few peak hour trains are rather crowded.

Because the units seem to be getting more than a little rough.

 

[sd0733]

The hourly Shrewsbury stopper is usually 2x170 sets (4-6 cars) and off peak mostly empty so can go half hourly simply by runnng as one set. (2 or 3 car).

If you read the franchise announcement most service increases are at weekends - no more stock needed.

And increases in the peaks are spun as thousands extra seats in peak hours this doesn't amount to much when those thousands are spread across all the various services arriving in the peak hours.

Yes most are at weekends but the extra Shrewsburys are in the week too. As 'Chris Hogan' says above its just basically an extension of the peak diagrams, keeping them out all day rather than at Tyseley between the peaks so needs no more units.

 

[LNW-GW Joint]

I'd bet on 350/2s going, to be replaced by 5-car (24m) Aventras. The lease agreement for them is I believe unacceptably expensive.

They are only 10 years old.
They could always be refitted internally to look like the other sub-types.
There was a plan to fit the 110mph mods as well.
Lease agreements can always be renegotiated (it's what competition is about, after all).
Maybe there is a Section 54 agreement which would keep them in place until a certain date, I don't know.
Better 350/2s than unreliable 319s.
An Aventra high-density unit may be no better than a 350/2, and it's essentially the Euston suburban demand which drives the spec.

 

[ChrisHogan]

Because the units seem to be getting more than a little rough.

I see them every week as I live in Stourbridge and travel on them frequently as I don't think they are "rough" at all. No doubt they will be repainted brown and mauve and given the associated new seat covers as part of the TfWM rebranding process.

 

[Bletchleyite]

An Aventra high-density unit may be no better than a 350/2, and it's essentially the Euston suburban demand which drives the spec.

An Aventra 5x24m unit has the advantage that it can never form a train 80m long, which is too short for just about every WCML service other than the likes of the 0318 from MKC.

 

[Pumbaa]

They are only 10 years old.

They could always be refitted internally to look like the other sub-types.

There was a plan to fit the 110mph mods as well.

Lease agreements can always be renegotiated (it's what competition is about, after all).

Maybe there is a Section 54 agreement which would keep them in place until a certain date, I don't know.

Better 350/2s than unreliable 319s.

An Aventra high-density unit may be no better than a 350/2, and it's essentially the Euston suburban demand which drives the spec.

No s54 on them. There is one on the /1s though.

 

[AlexNL]

New order of 110mph 5 and/or 10-car Aventras based on the East Anglia order, with 2+2 seating at 3+2 width allowing extra standing room.

Do Bombardier have capacity for another batch of Aventra's, with the Crossrail and LO projects ongoing and orders for SWR and GA in the books?

 

[El Magnifico]

Do Bombardier have capacity for another batch of Aventra's, with the Crossrail and LO projects ongoing and orders for SWR and GA in the books?

My thoughts exactly. My money's on CAF as they have a new UK factory being built and no orders for it that I know of.