a) Modelling of Relative Risks on Motorway Types 4.5 In addition to delivering the expected benefits of increased capacity and reduced congestion, a smart motorway scheme is expected to reduce some forms of risk. This is delivered through traffic speeds becoming more consistent, the speed differential between lanes reducing, signage alerting drivers to hazards, and by providing emergency areas which are expected to be a safer place to stop than a hard shoulder. However, some other forms of risk were expected to be greater than on conventional motorway, such as the risk of a vehicle stopping in a live lane. 4.6 To understand the overall effect, prior to the introduction of DHS and ALR as types of motorway, Highways England developed a method of hazard analysis to compare the relative safety risks of the design concepts with those of a conventional motorway. This enabled Highways England to consider how the likelihood and 35 impact of around 140 hazards (and mitigations) could vary between motorways types. This assessment was further informed by a series of workshops, and evidence from additional research and testing, including a driving simulator with members of the public. 4.7 This created an assessment of risk exposure, combining the probability of risks occurring and the severity of the consequences. An example of this analysis for a conventional three lane motorway and an ALR motorway is illustrated in figure 13 below, where ‘D3M’ is a conventional 3 lane motorway, and ‘MM-ALR’ is an All-Lane Running motorway. This suggested that on smart motorways, some risks would be reduced, and some would be increased. For example, risks expected to reduce on ALR included collisions involving speeding or tailgating, while risks expected to increase included collisions involving vehicles stopped in a live lane. However, the overall expected effect was a reduction in risk. This demonstrated that while the nature of the risks varied between the motorway types, ALR was expected to reduce the overall level of risk by 20% and be as safe as, or safer than, conventional motorways.