There are 4,456 single track kilometres of electrification with conductor rail on Network Rail infrastructure, which includes various sidings and loops.
To electrify the infill areas commonly proposed on these pages - North Downs, Uckfield, and Ore to Ashford - would be a further c215km. Thats as near as makes no difference an extra 5%. On a route mileage basis it will be higher (I guess 7%) but I don’t have those numbers to hand, so will stick with 5%.
Extrapolating the numbers provided by
@ainsworth74 above, that implies an additional 6-7 fatalities, and 20-21 injuries over the next three decades were those routes to be electrified with conductor rail. That’s just about 1 incident per year on these new sections. I note the suggestion that rural routes are less likely to see incidents, I suspect the numbers don’t bear that out, but I don’t know. However it
is likely that the addition of third rail in areas where there currently is none will potentially lead to a higher rate of incidents than the average, at least for an initial period. I don’t have evidence of that so will exclude it. And, also, I suspect that incidents are correlated more to route mileage than track mileage, but again will exclude that and stick with the lower, 5% number, on track mileage whcih leads to the extrapolation above. (For example, one could use different yet reasonable assumptions that would broadly double the anticipated extra incident numbers).
Now, it might be that the benefits to society of electric trains on these lines is worth the fact that there would be, on average, an incident every year on them, but you will need to demonstrate that through risk assessment
compared to alternatives, one of which is ‘do nothing.’ If, say, you are the MD of the Southern Region, and that assessment is not done, and you electrify with conductor rail anyway*, you will find yourself in the dock in court in short order following the first incident.
In the current world where battery trains are in service in the UK and worldwide and therefore clearly a possible alternative, you would need to demonstrate that the cost of buying and maintaining battery trains for these lines is
grossly disproportionate compared to the cost of buying and maintaining straight EMUs
plus 215km of third rail electrification (including all the necessary distribution equipment, power supplies, changes to signalling, changes to track, level crossings, signage, etc),
plus not having the other benefits (safety, performance, and financial) that battery trains have. Grossly disproportionate has a defintion in these circumstances, which I shan’t go into detail of here, as it gets complex. The short version is that the value of each life saved / injury avoided is multiplied by at least 2.5 times the norm used in socio-economic business cases.
Therefore, imagine again you are the MD of Southern Region. You have done the relevant risk assessments, and all the paperwork, and found that the whole life cost of battery trains is lower than or the same as electrifying with conductor rail. Nevertheless you sign the paperwork to deliver third rail*. Someone, at some point, has a fatal incident. You will be charged with Manslaughter by gross negligence, be found guilty, and sent to prison.
Therefore the only circumstance where it makes sense to electrify these sections with third rail is if it can be demonstrated, unequivocally, that the cost of the alternative(s) on a whole life basis is grossly disproportionate compared to the cost of third rail electrification, taking into account the expected lives lost and injuries occurring.
It is my contention, based on my knowledge and experience of how much these things cost, that battery trains in this example would be much, much cheaper, as well as safer, than new third rail.
Perhaps this thread could be bookmarked somehow, as this keeps cropping up.
* It is hypothetical of course, but if the MD of Southern Region did sign off on a new conductor rail installation with no risk assessment, or an assessment which showed that alternatives were better, then the ORR would not approve the entry into service of the equipment when it was built, and the MD would be sacked (if they hadn’t been sacked already).