Reform UK discussion

[J663738]

Latest Opinion Poll in Wales for next year's Senedd Elections has Reform in Second place well ahead of both Labour and the Conservatives.

1. Plaid Cymru 30%
2. Reform 29%
3. Labour 14%
4. Conservatives 11%
5. Lib Dem 6%
6. Green 6%

Source: YouGov poll carried out between 4th to 10th September in the year 2025 CE

Elections in Wales - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

 

[Sorcerer]

Better the devil you know I say. Life may not be wonderful under Labour or the Tories but at the end of the day we are a democracy, we have freedom of speech, we have an open and tolerant societal attitude towards minorities.

Reform have already come up with some pretty disturbing things. What about this from one of their MPs? Scarcely the voice of tolerance and moderation, and to me is inciting prejudice or worse against the two named nationalities.

Source: https://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/en...687e44d1e4b0502d85e59888?origin=top-ad-recirc

What about the ban on flying "unapproved" flags on council buildings?

I'm sorry but I have little or no sympathy towards those who wish to trade our open and tolerant society for this lot.

I won't play devil's advocate for Reform MPs nor any of their unsavoury views, I'm only playing it for an average person who won't have time to dive into politics beyond election time and is concerned about the decreasing quality of life in the UK and the stagnation of economic growth and wages that has happened under the watch of the two main parites. You're within your rights to argue that it's better the devil you know, and I won't try to argue that you're wrong for thinking so, but anyone who is increasingly fed up with the status quo won't share your judgement, so at that point you need to go further than simply saying better the devil you know.

Also for a democratic country our Parliaments are shockingly unrepresentative; 34% of the vote granting Labour over 60% of the seats which translates to basically 100% of the power, hence why so many feel dissatisfied believing that their vote won't make a difference. After all where is the incentive to go out and vote if you don't live in a marginal constituency and your MP has been part of the same party for decades?

For a country that Starmer also tries to champion as one with a long proud history of free speech, Labour and the Tories have still fancied taking a few dips in authoritarianism themselves. Notably Palestine Action being designated as terrorists along with the abysmal overreach that is the Online Safety Act (speaking of which, why is Reform the only party speaking out against it? Surely it's the duty of the Liberal Democrats to be the main opposition?).

This is why I ultimately think Keir Starmer, though considerably better than Jeremy Corbyn as a Labour leader, still wasn't the ideal choice. He is very much part of the Westminster bubble and doesn't represent the working class voters that Labour traditionally championed, and frankly he is absolutely awful with presentation because most people can see right through him. Compare and contrast Nigel Farage who has done a great job building the image as an average man who knows what's up and where you actually have to look into his life to see the true picture, which is something most people simply don't have time for.

 

[TravelDream]

As I said, a tactical "anyone but Reform" campaign could stop them, providing it's well-organised. Granted Labour wouldn't win, I think that's a given, but we could perhaps cobble together some kind of Tory-Labour-Lib Dem coalition.

A nice idea, but it isn't going to happen.

Take the soon to happen Caerphilly Welsh Senedd by-election caused by the untimely early death of the sitting member.

Who would you suggest anti-Reform voters vote for?

How does that prevent the relevant taxation being due? (It's best to keep it per-property to avoid people being able to work around it by splitting ownership).

That's very different than what the post said about about portfolios. Obviously taxing individual properties is much easier and avoids a lot of the issues of tax avoidance.
However, and it's a big one. How do you deal with farms and what exactly is a farm?

And then if you have exceptions for farms, what if I as a Saudi billionaire own a multi-million pound estate and keep a few chickens, is it now a farm? Obviously you can easily say no, but there needs to be a legal threshold.

The then government actively chose not to do so in 2004 (though lessons had been learned by the time that Romania and Bulgaria joined). They wanted to "rub the right's nose in diversity"

One of the many mistakes of the Blair government.
It is one of the things he regrets now too, but the damage is done.

 

[Bletchleyite]

A nice idea, but it isn't going to happen.

Take the soon to happen Caerphilly Welsh Senedd by-election caused by the untimely early death of the sitting member.

Who would you suggest anti-Reform voters vote for?

In Wales? Plaid, clearly, just as SNP in Scotland. At least those countries have a viable centre-left alternative.

Without any possible doubt if I lived in Wales I'd be voting Plaid or in Scotland SNP. Neither is perfect, but neither is the cronyism, it's also not Reform and the country can easily get behind them.

 

[nw1]

A nice idea, but it isn't going to happen.

A very pessimistic attitude I feel. "Yes, we should just obediently let Reform in and not try to fight as it won't work. Let's just give up now and accept that the UK in the 2030s is going to be a terrible place".

Is it any wonder this country is so miserable at the moment with pessimistic, "can't do" attitudes like that?

Take the soon to happen Caerphilly Welsh Senedd by-election caused by the untimely early death of the sitting member.

Who would you suggest anti-Reform voters vote for?

Labour, I guess, if I'm right about the area's politics. This is of course doing no research; if I was to do said research I might come up with a more informed answer.

And of course in this by-election there isn't going to be a strong "Stop Reform" campaign in any case, because in the scheme of things, it's fairly insignificant. A General Election is a very different matter.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 17 Sep 2025 ==

Latest Opinion Poll in Wales for next year's Senedd Elections has Reform in Second place well ahead of both Labour and the Conservatives.

1. Plaid Cymru 30%
2. Reform 29%
3. Labour 14%
4. Conservatives 11%
5. Lib Dem 6%
6. Green 6%

What we need is a map showing the level of support, constituency-by-constituency, of Plaid, Labour, the Tories, Lib Dem, and the Greens.

Such a map would allow people to make the most appropriate tactical choice of those five for their constituency.

Do that well and Reform will be screwed.

 

[TravelDream]

A very pessimistic attitude I feel. "Yes, we should just obediently let Reform in".

Labour, I guess, if I'm right about the area's politics. This is of course doing no research; if I was to do said research I might come up with a more informed answer.

Most voters are very poorly informed - scarily so in my opinion. They don't do research on their area and are often entrenched to 'their' party.

It isn't pessimistic, it's realistic.

I am afraid we are on course for Reform government. I am actually a bit optimistic as I actually think Britain needs a bit of reset politically and this may be it - but obviously the Reform government won't be great.

In Caerphilly's case, I fear suggesting someone votes Labour almost guarantees a Reform win. Whilst Labour won it last time (with a relatively small majority over Plaid), Plaid Cymru and Reform are battling it out for first place and incumbent Labour will likely be a poor third.

In Wales? Plaid, clearly, just as SNP in Scotland. At least those countries have a viable centre-left alternative.

Prime example of why it can't work.
If seat X has a large Labour majority, how could anyone viably suggest voting Plaid Cymru to avoid a Reform government,.

 

[nw1]

It isn't pessimistic, it's realistic.

I disagree. It just sounds like a very pessimistic and hopeless attitude.

Pessimism isn't realism. I could say that I think next summer it'll rain every day; could happen, but I'd say it's a pessimistic take, not a realistic one.

I am afraid we are on course for Reform government. I am actually a bit optimistic as I actually think Britain needs a bit of reset politically and this may be it - but obviously the Reform government won't be great.

So is it honestly time for some of us to start the process of considering leaving the country, at least for a few years, if we want to avoid this? That's what this post sounds like!

I'd like to think there was a bit of hope for an alternative outcome - you're speaking as if you are an expert in the matter and that outcome is a fact, but it's not fact, it's just opinion.

 

[J663738]

Such a map would allow people to make the most appropriate tactical choice of those five for their constituency.

Do that well and Reform will be screwed.

Hello, I think think you understand the electoral system in the Welsh elections, they are voted on by large multi seat proportional representation, so the 29% support, will turn into representatives, regardless of how tactical others voters vote.

 

[nw1]

Hello, I think think you understand the electoral system in the Welsh elections, they are voted on by proportional representation, so the 29% will turn into representatives, regardless of how tactical others voters vote.

OK fair enough - sorry.

In which case 29% representation isn't as bad as it sounds. You've got 71% from other parties, so any silly policies will be voted down by the rest.

 

[TravelDream]

So is it honestly time for some of us to start the process of considering leaving the country, at least for a few years, if we want to avoid this? That's what this post sounds like!

I'd like to think there was a bit of hope - you're speaking as if you are an expert in the matter and that outcome is a fact, but it's not fact, it's just opinion.

You sound like one of those Americans online who pledged to move to Canada if he won. I am pretty sure things won't change massively for ordinary people if Reform wins.
Though I may also be one of the ones moving. Let's see how things go.

And I am not an expert, but based on current polling and political narrative, yes, Reform will win a majority.
And Keir Starmer and his government is doing very little to stop that.

Hello, I think think you understand the electoral system in the Welsh elections, they are voted on by proportional representation, so the 29% will turn into representatives, regardless of how tactical others voters vote.

The new system from 2026 isn't totally proportional. A party could win 10% in Wales and still come out with zero seats (unlikely, but very possible) and there is definitely a 'winner's bonus' built into the system. But it's nothing like first past the post.

Not to confuse with the upcoming Caerphilly by election which will use first past the post.

 

[SuspectUsual]

Most voters are very poorly informed - scarily so in my opinion. They don't do research on their area and are often entrenched to 'their' party.

Agree with the first part, disagree with the bit about entrenchment. I think the underlying issue amongst the younger generations is a lack of critical thinking, and too many people believe whatever they’re told. Unfortunately Farage has realised this and uses TikTok etc to push Reform, and he’s very good at it

 

[nw1]

And I am not an expert, but based on current polling and political narrative, yes, Reform will win a majority.
And Keir Starmer and his government is doing very little to stop that.

"A week is a long time in politics".

People loved Boris and the Tories in 2021. Just a year later, he was damaged goods, as was the wider party by later in 2022 thanks to the antics of Liz.

What you're saying is similar to claiming in 2020 that the 2024 election will be won by the Tories under Johnson, without a shadow of doubt, based on Boris' popularity and the weakness of the opposition. People may well have thought that at the time, but if they did, it would be opinion, and not fact.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 17 Sep 2025 ==

You sound like one of those Americans online who pledged to move to Canada if he won. I am pretty sure things won't change massively for ordinary people if Reform wins.
Though I may also be one of the ones moving. Let's see how things go.

Trouble is, I'm not just having a rant - I do have a genuine and deep seated fear of what the place will be like, as well as a fear about the economic situation.

I also wonder whether society will become a much nastier and less compassionate place if they get in, with those struggling being supported considerably less than they are now.

 

[SuspectUsual]

I also wonder whether society will become a much nastier and less compassionate place if they get in, with those struggling being supported considerably less than they are now

I’m almost certain it will be. Anyone on the margins of society will be a target

 

[nw1]

I’m almost certain it will be. Anyone on the margins of society will be a target

And this is why people must not just accept the so-called inevitable, and why organised anti-Reform campaigns must begin.

We're not all Joe or Jane Average.

 

[brad465]

To me the answer lies in something that doesn't exist - a balanced political approach that has policies on both the left and the right. The only time I recall this approach in my lifetime was the Lib Dem-Tory coalition.

Ironically that coalition was the most stable period of UK politics since 2010. Stable doesn't mean brilliant, that coalition did plenty of bad stuff, but compared to the chaotic, frequent elections, frequent changing of PM and Brexit handling debacle, it was a blessing. What the 2015 onwards' period of politics has shown is that the notion FPTP brings stable government is well and truly debunked; 20+ years ago it might have done, but times change, and if our systems don't change with them, we all suffer.

OK fair enough - sorry.

In which case 29% representation isn't as bad as it sounds. You've got 71% from other parties, so any silly policies will be voted down by the rest.

I also suspect they won't have any friends in a coalition, so would have to settle for opposition. Plaid, Labour and the Lib Dems or Greens could form a coalition, and if there was a small swing towards Labour from the Tories and/or Reform, Plaid and Labour alone would be enough. Reform and the Tories might not work together, and even if they did, this wouldn't be enough to form a coalition on this polling. If Reform were able to govern in a coalition, they would have to compromise considerably, which would make them more moderate and more palatable to a wider array of voters as a result, so won't be as bad as if they had a full majority.

 

[AlterEgo]

Being anti-immigration is not racist. Never has been and never will - despite what some people say.

Some people who are anti-immigration *are* racist and are against immigration because they are racist. That doesn't make the position racist per se, but it is important to realise some people who are anti-immigration will be unpleasant, will be racist, and will need to be excluded from the conversation if you want other, right minded people to get onside.

People should be tolerant and welcoming and society/ government should promote this. I think overwhelmingly Britain is a good place for migrants compared to many countries around the world.

But that doesn't mean you need to have open borders and welcome large numbers of poor economic migrants.

Quite. This is a very mainstream opinion. Britain has lots of problems, but, generally, it remains a good place to welcome immigrants. My wife is one - and now a citizen (she came here on a skilled work visa).

 

[Krokodil]

And I am not an expert, but based on current polling and political narrative, yes, Reform will win a majority.

YouGov has them on 28%. No party in recorded history (so since the Great Reform Act of 1832) has ever formed a majority on 28% of the vote. That's without considering the incumby advantages the established parties have where an individual MP might retain their seat in spite of the unpopularity of their party, because they as an individual are well-liked. Reform only has one name that anyone would recognise.

 

[nw1]

Ironically that coalition was the most stable period of UK politics since 2010. Stable doesn't mean brilliant, that coalition did plenty of bad stuff, but compared to the chaotic, frequent elections, frequent changing of PM and Brexit handling debacle, it was a blessing. What the 2015 onwards' period of politics has shown is that the notion FPTP brings stable government is well and truly debunked; 20+ years ago it might have done, but times change, and if our systems don't change with them, we all suffer.

Indeed, one of the top priorities also should be ditching FPTP by 2029.

That way, even if they come first with around 30% of the vote, Reform will not be able to form a government if others refuse to work with them. I believe something similar happened in the Netherlands preventing Wilders from becoming PM despite coming first? That result, together with the implications of the poll for the Welsh election discussed upthread, shows that proportional representation is an excellent way of preventing far-out parties from gaining absolute power.

Ditching FPTP will be good in 2029 for Labour, good for the Lib Dems, good for the Greens - and good for the Tories, if it's done in this parliament. While most MPs are from those four parties, and it can likely get a majority vote in Parliament, it's time to do it now.

 

[DarloRich]

I am actually a bit optimistic as I actually think Britain needs a bit of reset politically and this may be it

What does this actually mean in the real world?

 

[nw1]

Reform only has one name that anyone would recognise.

Mind you, Anderson (especially), Tice and Pochin have already done more than enough to be placed in my own personal premier-league political sin bin.

But yes, your point is a good one and more realistic than stating that a win for them in 2029 is an unalterable fact, when they are on 30% or even a little less.

 

[PGAT]

YouGov has them on 28%. No party in recorded history (so since the Great Reform Act of 1832) has ever formed a majority on 28% of the vote. That's without considering the incumby advantages the established parties have where an individual MP might retain their seat in spite of the unpopularity of their party, because they as an individual are well-liked. Reform only has one name that anyone would recognise.

Gonna have to disagree there. This situation is unprecedented and the way the FPTP system works Reform don’t need a high proportion to get a majority, they just need everyone else to be doing poorly. And their lead is about 10% points ahead of Labour, or as high as 16% in some polls

 

[nw1]

Gonna have to disagree there. This situation is unprecedented and the way the FPTP system works Reform don’t need a high proportion to get a majority, they just need everyone else to be doing poorly. And their lead is about 10% points ahead of Labour, or as high as 16% in some polls

This assumes no tactical voting though. A tactical voting campaign to ensure that they don't get a majority could have a huge effect. People are wise to tactical voting now, and it was used against the relatively harmless Sunak. When you're talking of a party infinitely worse than Sunak could ever be, people are only going to engage even more enthusiastically.

A party on 28-30% will not necessarily win even if it's ahead of the others, if that party is hated by much of the population.

No-one else will win outright as things stand, of course, but we presumably end up with a coalition of some kind in which the other parties agree to work together.

I also wouldn't underestimate the Tories' ability for coming back from the dead. Perhaps Badenoch isn't well liked but doesn't mean another leader might not be. The Tories still seem to be popular in the countryside. If Wiltshire council results are at all typical of rural England, you could see them and the Lib Dems still with a lot of seats, even if Labour collapse.

Equally, I do see the real prospect of a new Left movement arising in the next 4 years. I don't think Corbyn is the right person to do this; a fresh face is needed, but I suspect a lot of people want to see a left-leaning movement for a force for real, positive, compassionate change. Look at the Left movement last July in France for example, which prevented the RN winning the snap election, confounding all the pundits who thought an RN win was inevitable.

 

[TravelDream]

Some people who are anti-immigration *are* racist and are against immigration because they are racist. That doesn't make the position racist per se, but it is important to realise some people who are anti-immigration will be unpleasant, will be racist, and will need to be excluded from the conversation if you want other, right minded people to get onside.

Of course that's never been in doubt.
I only wish we had had a more sensible national discussion in Britain on immigration. It would have made Brexit a lot less likely IMO. Never mind this current political climate.

YouGov has them on 28%. No party in recorded history (so since the Great Reform Act of 1832) has ever formed a majority on 28% of the vote. That's without considering the incumby advantages the established parties have where an individual MP might retain their seat in spite of the unpopularity of their party, because they as an individual are well-liked. Reform only has one name that anyone would recognise.

Please read up on how first past the post works.

Yes, Reform can win a majority on 28%. They just need to have a clear margin from other parties, especially if Lab/ Con do equally as well as each other, to win a comfortable majority.

Remember Labour's experience. Jeremy Corbyn won 40.0% in 2017 and lost the election. Keir Starmer won 33.7% and won by a landslide. The difference? How other parties did.

 

[jon0844]

The problem here is (1) a lot of the less educated Reform followers will readily believe anything Farage says, and (2) a "screwed economy" in 2029 is likely to be something that at that stage is still intangible to the average bloke in the street. Market problems in the year before an election are very unlikely to be directly affecting their lives.

My wife asked me why the people in London protesting with Tommy Robinson would vote Reform when they're likely not ultra rich, may live in a council flat, rely on the NHS, potentially want to use right to buy to get their own home and much more.

It's hard to explain. Sure Labour isn't what it used to be, but it still aligns more with their needs than Reform does - but, like Brexit, it's amazing how easy it can be to get people to ignore the things that actually affect them day to day when their racism is far stronger.

People say Brexit has not been good, but give it time. If Reform gets in, and everything gets worse, some will say it's a price worth paying to have finally got rid of the foreigners.

What sort of future these voters think they'll have if we got rid of foreigners I do not know. I guess that's when they'll find out, as many are finding out in the USA right now as their farms and other industries go bust because they've lost their workers.

 

[nw1]

Of course that's never been in doubt.
I only wish we had had a more sensible national discussion in Britain on immigration. It would have made Brexit a lot less likely IMO. Never mind this current political climate.



Please read up on how first past the post works.

Yes, Reform can win a majority on 28%. They just need to have a clear margin from other parties, especially if Lab/ Con do equally as well as each other, to win a comfortable majority.

They also need to win across the country rather than being concentrated in a few strongholds such as the Midlands, the Red Wall, and the East. I can see the Conservatives retaining many rural seats and the Lib Dems retaining seats in the liberal South. There's no way Reform are going to win big cities and university towns.

Labour might collapse in the big cities but their place will be taken by the Greens, Lib Dems, or Left independents. Some "lucky" Labour wins in the London commuter belt might revert to Tory, given the likely professional and socially-liberal but perhaps economically-conservative electorate.

I can't see them winning more seats than the Tories did in 2019, for instance - and probably considerably less given that some 2019 Tory seats will remain Tory and still others will be Lib Dem.

And that is before we even get into tactical voting.

Yes, we need to be aware of the threat and start acting now - but we should not get ourselves into a state of soul-destroying inevitable pessimism and write off the next ten years, or for those of is in mid-life, most of the rest of our working life. That is not what most of us want to hear, it's incredibly depressing and soul-destroying.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 17 Sep 2025 ==

My wife asked me why the people in London protesting with Tommy Robinson would vote Reform when they're likely not ultra rich, may live in a council flat, rely on the NHS, potentially want to use right to buy to get their own home and much more.

It's hard to explain. Sure Labour isn't what it used to be, but it still aligns more with their needs than Reform does - but, like Brexit, it's amazing how easy it can be to get people to ignore the things that actually affect them day to day when their racism is far stronger.

People say Brexit has not been good, but give it time. If Reform gets in, and everything gets worse, some will say it's a price worth paying to have finally got rid of the foreigners.

What sort of future these voters think they'll have if we got rid of foreigners I do not know. I guess that's when they'll find out, as many are finding out in the USA right now as their farms and other industries go bust because they've lost their workers.

And hopefully we will learn a few lessons from the USA. Trump is actually working for us in that respect, ironically enough, by convincing us not to make the same mistake.

 

[WelshBluebird]

One thing Reform have managed to do, and I hate to give them credit, is essentially replace the Tories as the right wing vote (of course a lot of that is to do with the Tories imploding too), whilst also somehow getting support from the some of the old school "never vote Tory" lot (despite a decent number of Tories jumping ship). I think that explains a lot of the current Welsh polling too where at least some of the support would never dream of voting Tory.

 

[DerekC]

One thing Reform have managed to do, and I hate to give them credit, is essentially replace the Tories as the right wing vote (of course a lot of that is to do with the Tories imploding too), whilst also somehow getting support from the some of the old school "never vote Tory" lot (despite a decent number of Tories jumping ship). I think that explains a lot of the current Welsh polling too where at least some of the support would never dream of voting Tory.

The history of how the National Socialists came to power in Germany in 1932 has lessons here (and I am not saying that people who vote Reform are Nazis). The clue is in the name. They managed to persuade 32% of the electorate that they were both ultra-nationalist and socialist, so they attracted votes from both far right and middle left, reinforced by people who blamed the democratic arrangement and the chosen racial scapegoats for everything from losing WWI to the price of bread. And once they were in power democracy and socialism went out of the window and Germany was left with ultra nationalism and racial scapegoating. The parallels are not exact, but the way to stop it happening is clear. The government in power has to show that liberal democracy does work for the people. Right now, Labour and Starmer have to do the business or we will be stuck with Farage - and whoever comes after.

 

[Cloud Strife]

Latest Opinion Poll in Wales for next year's Senedd Elections has Reform in Second place well ahead of both Labour and the Conservatives.

1. Plaid Cymru 30%
2. Reform 29%
3. Labour 14%
4. Conservatives 11%
5. Lib Dem 6%
6. Green 6%

This result almost certainly guarantees a Plaid First Minister, possibly in a minority government, although Plaid and Labour have been in coalition before. Depending on the exact numbers, it might also be a Plaid-Green minority government with Labour guaranteeing confidence and supply, at least informally.

Reform, by growing in Wales, are effectively pushing the country towards more devolution. It's paradoxical, but many moderate Welsh voters will turn to Plaid to stop Reform.

 

[Krokodil]

Please read up on how first past the post works.

I am well aware of how FPTP works, kindly do not patronise me.

Yes, Reform can win a majority on 28%.

They could, I didn't say otherwise. What I did say is that no party in history has managed a majority on 29% of the vote. Some have come close, but Reform would need the best tacticians in the world to target their resources effectively enough to achieve it.

My wife asked me why the people in London protesting with Tommy Robinson would vote Reform when they're likely not ultra rich, may live in a council flat, rely on the NHS, potentially want to use right to buy to get their own home and much more.

Same as those in the former West Virginia coalfield who voted Trump and ended up losing their healthcare. Or the farmers who voted Trump and saw costs rocketing, income falling and their cheap workforce deported.

And hopefully we will learn a few lessons from the USA. Trump is actually working for us in that respect, ironically enough, by convincing us not to make the same mistake.

Certainly that was the case in Canada, where Poilievre (who positioned himself as a Maple MAGA) saw his support plummet and not only lost just the general election, but his own seat in the process.

 

[TravelDream]

I am well aware of how FPTP works, kindly do not patronise me.

I didn't intend to patronise and apologies if this came across that way.

I just think it needs to be clear politics has changed. Since the Great Reform Act, Britain has essentially been a two party state. Whether Whig-Tory as at the time, or Conservative-Labour in the modern period. First past the post works fairly well when you have two parties.
But FPTP can be very perverse when you have multiple major parties.

It's very wrong to say that 30% would make a majority unlikely in the current climate.

Certainly that was the case in Canada, where Poilievre (who positioned himself as a Maple MAGA) saw his support plummet and not only lost just the general election, but his own seat in the process.

There was one very big change that had little to do with Poilievre.
It had much more to do with Trudeau stepping down and with the Trump vs. Canada climate at the time.

My understanding, as a non-expert observer, is Canada is a little odd because the left has long dominated the 'anti-USA'/ Canadian nationalist space, whilst the right has long been a lot more closely associated with being pro-USA.

The difference with the UK is Farage is a known quantity. Polls don't pick up large numbers of don't knows for him. People feel like they know him.

This result almost certainly guarantees a Plaid First Minister, possibly in a minority government, although Plaid and Labour have been in coalition before. Depending on the exact numbers, it might also be a Plaid-Green minority government with Labour guaranteeing confidence and supply, at least informally.

A minority would be ungovernable on those numbers.

A Plaid Labour coalition perhaps with the Lib Dems and Greens is most likely whether Labour get 14% like in this poll or 30%.