I think you underestimate the strength of feeling against Reform though. 30% or so could cause a win, but it isn't a given. An organised tactical voting campaign against them could see them off. As I said you could see lifelong lefties voting Tory. I myself am certainly prepared to vote Tory to see them off, even if that means someone like Badenoch or Jenrick as PM. Life under Jenrick or Badenoch wouldn't be great but Tory governments are a known - we've certainly had many of them since 1979!
First past the post is a perverse system.
With a split opposition, a large majority is very possible on not much above 30% (Labour has a large majority on just 33.7% and it is likely 2029's vote will be even more split based on current polling).
Better the devil you know I say. Life may not be wonderful under Labour or the Tories but at the end of the day we are a democracy, we have freedom of speech, we have an open and tolerant societal attitude towards minorities.
That's what you say. I am not sure that's what people in grinding poverty living in depressed parts of the country think.
I obviously don't know you or your background, but I do wish some of the well-off/ 'better educated' would open their eyes to other parts of the country and other peoples' lives.
Reform have already come up with some pretty disturbing things. What about this from one of their MPs? Scarcely the voice of tolerance and moderation.
Disturbing? But what if it is a fact?
Are you saying we should police our thoughts and what we say? As I have said, it is part of the reason for the rise of ReformUK.
People have been told for too long if you are against immigration, you're a racist. And you can't say this or that.
As I said above, I am pro-immigration, but I realise that this is a huge issue. Being anti-immigration is not racist. Never has been and never will - despite what some people say.
People should be tolerant and welcoming and society/ government should promote this. I think overwhelmingly Britain is a good place for migrants compared to many countries around the world.
But that doesn't mean you need to have open borders and welcome large numbers of poor economic migrants.
If the UK started taxing individuals with property portfolios over £10m (a threshold I picked in an effort to ensure that family farms fell below it) then the sales that might result there would be a reduction in people using real estate as an investment, fewer empty properties and a fall in prices in the most extreme parts of London. It would also mean that agricultural land would fall in value - wealthy people (Dyson, Clarkson et al) buying it up when it used to be IHT exempt really pushed up prices. Real estate can't really be moved abroad to avoid tax.
That is so incredibly easily avoided to be effectively meaningless.
Have properties owned by holding companies.
Incorporate them in places like the Cayman Islands to hide ownership.
I can't do it as I am not wealthy, but it is what wealthy people will do and it is incredibly difficult to meaningfully oppose it.
Plus France is a prime example of wealth taxes failing. The higher they pushed them, the lower the state took in as the wealthy took more measures to avoid it.
Again, I am not wealthy and I think that those with the means should pay their fair share of the tax, but I am also realistic and realise you can't put punishing taxes on those most mobile/ agile as they can and will simply move assets and use tricks to (legally) avoid paying said taxes.
Clearly the tax system on property is wrong.
Stamp duty is too punishing and restricts downsizing/ mobility which the tax system should promote. At the same time, council tax caps out far too low and is quite perverse in how low band properties play significantly more in some parts of the country compared to others.