JGurney
Member
Bearing in mind Kruger's views on marriage and divorce, I wonder if anyone has asked him about his views on Nigel Farage living with one woman while married to another.
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Reform UK discussion
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Gloster
Veteran Member
The current state of play is Conservative 119 plus one who is an Independent as he has lost the whip, while the Liberal-Democrats are on 72. So 24 defections from the one to t’other would do it: defections to Reform would affect anything and I am not going to do quadratic equations or the like to calculate the various possibilities. Simply put, it is up in the area of ‘highly unlikely’, but anything will be embarrassing for the Conservatives.
I suspect that unless Badenoch and co. handle this very skilfully (ha!) we will see more Conservatives defecting if they think that it will best see them through the next election. Of course they will say it is on principle, but why didn’t they go earlier in that case? There may also be a few who aren’t standing again and don’t give a d*mn or want to raise their profile for post-Westminster jobs.
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He is an evangelical Christian and no doubt has strong beliefs. But he is a politician, ‘If you don’t like my beliefs, I have other ones’.
SuspectUsual
Established Member
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Exactly, or as he might be more likely to say, politics is about compromise
He's a closet Marxist!
KevinBrum12
Member
All of the Pro-Europe, One-Nation Tories were expunged during the "leadership" of Johnson. So there aren't 24 Tories to defect to the Lib-Dems, unless they have a Damascene Conversion. Tories unhappy with Badenoch are more likely to go in the direction of Reform. If Jenrick or Braverman go on manouveres Badenoch will be in big trouble.
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Captain Badenoch at the helm of the ghost ship ‘Tory’ is already in dire trouble. I’m not sure that losing two of the nastiest elements of the nasty party changes much.
Is it though?
If we are not very careful, we could sleepwalk our way into a government led by this man.
Anything about his affairs, even a minor event, should be a story, and a big story, as far as I am concerned, as it's in the public interest for the reasons I have given above. Otherwise it looks like the media is covering it up.
Focusing on Rayner and not on Farage just sounds like pro-Reform bias to me. Rayner, out of office, is irrelevant history now. Rayner will not be in government any time soon. Reform however is a threat for the future. Time for this country to wake up.
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KevinBrum12
Member
The Mandelson/Epstein affair has bought Badenoch a bit of time, but not much. If there is another defection of a Tory MP to Reform no doubt Farage will schedule it for the week of the Tory Conference to sabotage that - especially if its a high profile one.
See the so-called "evangelical Christians" who idolise Trump.
Gloster
Veteran Member
It has struck me that he is joining a party that, by my definition, is somewhat lacking in Christian charity. However, as you say, he may be following the US Christian Right who believe that faith is measured in wealth and charity begins (and stays) at home. Farage certainly seems to believe in the wealth part.
nr758123
Member
Evangelical "Christians", not "evangelical Christians".
Indeed, I am not a Christian but I will say that of all the UK parties, Reform is the furthest from my understanding of Christian ideals.
To me a big part of Christianity is compassion and concern for others. Something which seems to be singularly lacking in Reform UK, by far the nastiest party in UK politics in my opinion. They just seem to brim with aggression and intolerance, IMO. Likewise with Trump, another person who utterly lacks any form of compassion.
Any moderate right-winger should really be sticking with the Tories.
If I lived wherever Kruger is MP (it used to be Devizes, but think it's changed?) I'd be demanding a by-election now. He was elected as a Tory. Given Wiltshire's council results (basically a Lib Dem/Tory stronghold, a comforting piece of evidence that not all of the UK outside the cities is falling for Reform's "charms") you could argue that he's violating the wishes of his electorate.
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Purple Train
Established Member
Class73Electro
Member
Does come down to a "are you voting for the person or the party"
Does feel slightly if a sitting MP defects, then, if you're voting for the party, you'd want a by-election to confirm either way.
if MP X goes from a party to, say the Monster Raving Loony Party (are they still around?!), would the locals be happy with that?
Might get some more sensible policies out of it
Snow1964
Established Member
Wiltshire gained a parliamentary seat, and many boundaries were moved with some seats almost split in middle, he kept southern part of his old Devizes constituency, and his new one is called East Wiltshire.
There has been lot of negative comments in local news, including local TV news, about changing party, especially as Reform came 4th last year in East Wiltshire.
Gloster
Veteran Member
The Monster Raving Loony Party appears to be still about as it put up twenty-two candidates in the 2024 general election and contested the Runcorn by-election. However, it does seem to have greatly shrunk and declined since its glory days.
My opinion is that a MP should not have to resign if they leave the party they were elected for, but should if they join another party. In the first case they can still vote for the policies that they were elected on, except for those that led to them leaving, but in the second they have to vote according to the policies of a party whose candidate was rejected.
Kruger's views haven't changed; only his rosette. Constitutional convention (IMHO correctly) means that he was elected as an individual and, if he hasn't the guts to seek a renewed mandate on his new rosette*, he is entitled to retain his seat.
* - one of the few things that I have time for Douglas Carswell over was his willingness to fight a by-election after crossing to Reform.
Even the potential of a Reform government is screwing up Labour’s economy, cost of government borrowing keeps going up, and I suspect the reason is that they can see a Farage government in future with Liz Truss economics, with the resulting chaos, and they’re pricing that in now. Unless Labour’s fortunes improve they’ll be stuck in a downward spiral.
brad465
Veteran Member
I wouldn't say that's the reason for it right now as the election is still years off, even with the current apparent chaos. However, in the final year before an election if Reform UK are looking set for government, and/or a very unstable hung parliament where no clear coalition looks possible, then I'd expect some serious market problems.
I hope those that would vote Reform will take note of the above.
Authoritarianism, hard-right politics, and a screwed economy. Seems to show that those that would vote Reform have little common sense and don't seem to understand that there are other issues besides immigration.
Hopefully they have almost four years to learn this. I can see the possibility of the Tories recovering, to be honest, particularly if they have a good leader - perhaps one possible outcome is a rerun of 2019 but with the Lib Dems having far more southern seats so only a small majority.
On another topic I wonder if it is now time for Regional devolution? If there were to be a Reform government (hopefully not, but a possibility) a devolved "London and South" region might be able to make far more of its own decisions; while there are exceptions, much of the South seems to be shielded from the "charms" of Reform. Even rural Wiltshire didn't seem to think much of them in the recent council elections, remaining a Lib Dem/Tory stronghold.
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SuspectUsual
Established Member
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The problem here is (1) a lot of the less educated Reform followers will readily believe anything Farage says, and (2) a "screwed economy" in 2029 is likely to be something that at that stage is still intangible to the average bloke in the street. Market problems in the year before an election are very unlikely to be directly affecting their lives.
Ted633
Member
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They won’t. They’ll blame the ‘establishment‘ and say all the so called (in their eyes) ‘experts’ are all going to be wrong and are scaremongering. All whilst listening to some YouTuber saying that it’s all going to be milk & honey when reform get in. We saw the same with Brexit unfortunately.
Farage’s strength - His ability to convince huge numbers of people that something he doesn’t like is the root cause of most of their issues. The first big con worked and now he’s moved onto other far more sensitive scapegoats.
Even still we have four years for them to be found out. A period when Trump will be in power for much of the time and the world will surely tire of vacuous and moronic authoritarian right-wing populism once he leaves office, presumably shortly before our next election. Also they will be running a number of councils, during which they have plenty of time to screw up.
Also, 30% or so isn't necessarily enough to win an election. I can see a massive anti-Reform tactical campaign next time, far bigger than any previous tactical campaign, in which people will vote for anything (even liberals and lefties voting Tory, yes I would contemplate this myself!) to keep them out. Essentially, every constituency will have a Reform candidate and a leading non-Reform candidate and those of us who don't like them will rally around the latter, whether they be Labour, Lib Dem, Tory, Green or Independent.
There may be a lot of people that like them for some unfathomable reason, but there are also a lot of people - likely much more, who have intense fear and anger towards them. Fear of authoritarianism, fear of intolerance, and fear of catastrophic economic collapse. A cliched comment I know, but I see Reform as a grave threat to the modern British way of life, and I suspect much of the population feel similarly.
What I do think would help though is a more organised Left movement. France managed to stave off the RN threat last year with an alternative anti-Macron grouping on the Left; and New York City looks set to elect a left-wing mayor, Zohran Mamdani, later in the year. A Left movement of the French or New York type would give those who don't wish to vote Labour, Tory or Lib Dem an alternative place to put their vote. Perhaps, like New York, run by someone new and fresh offering a hopeful and optimistic outlook - a sharp contrast to the overwhelmingly negative, aggressive, and rather spiteful image of Reform.
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TravelDream
Member
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While it's easy to blame Farage, I think most people forget the fundamental problem in Britain.
We've had government after government whose goal seems to be managed decline rather than growth. Who've seemingly ignored the majority of Britain and focused on a narrow metropolitan bubble.
And is this government doing anything different? No.
We are still a build nothing build nowhere country. Taxes and state spending are continuing to increase at a dramatic rate. The government is unable to get a hold of key issues the British public worry about (cost of living, immigration/ boats**, housing etc.).
**I've put two asterisks here as I actually consider myself very pro-immigration. I've been an immigrant myself and realise the economic benefits immigrants can bring. But it is hard to see how taking thousands and thousands of unskilled economic migrants (I have no doubt Syria/ Iraq/ Nigeria etc. are miserable places to live for many, but call a duck a duck. I also realise that family and societal culture is very different in many places and that is why we see so many young men not the 'military invasion' talked about by those on the right) is a sensible or even sane idea.
Bletchleyite
Veteran Member
I'm inclined to agree there. Immigration brings benefit and growth when it is to fill unfilled roles and where those people want to bring their culture to integrate with the UK's culture and bring benefits to both sides. Where it doesn't do those things it is negative, often strongly so. While the whole thing about there being no-go areas is a nasty right wing trope (TBH there are places I won't go because I might get my wallet nicked by a chav/scally* but none where I won't go because the majority population happens to have dark skin or be Muslim, though some of the latter places also have issues with the former), I don't think ghettoisation is a benefit to anyone, and places like Oldham (and to a lesser extent parts of Birmingham) are good examples of where this has gone very badly indeed.
The idea of a points based scheme seems to have been a good one in principle and works well for Australia, but somehow we seem to have managed to mess it up?
* Almost certainly white British.
Well, yes, partly - but also as alluded to upthread, the precarity of economic circumstances is now affecting more people and seeping up through the class system. It is now more difficult to move than ever, you have reduced employment rights when you start a new job, housing sucks up an enormous portion of most people's incomes and so does childcare. This all means too many people are stuck in low-productivity, low-waged work.
The country so badly needs an alternative to what is being perpetrated now and in the past - but the answer cannot come from the hard right. Reform is a party which asks people to reduce their empathy for themselves and others; it individualises and atomises the individual, asking them to advocate state cruelty against non-persons in the hope that they may be left alone if they approve. All the while giving them some sort of idea that they can just unite under a flag. Britain - and England in particular - is not that sort of country; it is far more localist - a country of smaller communities, county identities, regional accents, all of which are decentralised, softer, less overbearing markers of our identity.
The asylum issue is not our biggest issue but it is visible and it is a sign that the social contract is broken. People are living in poverty in Britain and they are suffering from poor healthcare outcomes and they have miserable lives. Reform supporters are grievance-filled and often unpleasant; some have allowed their parlous circumstances to hollow out their own humanity. That is very sad for them - they are victims, they talk like victims, they believe they have no agency. And nearly all of them voted Brexit - which has not delivered better lives for most of the people who voted for it.
The top priority for Starmer is to make Britain prosperous and for our wealth - because we are not poor - to be more evenly distributed. The social contract must be repaired. Our tolerance of low standards in public life and public services has to end. The country feels very depressed at the moment.
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One big challenge for our society is how to have these conversations about immigration - including pushing back against some of it - while disaffiliating the opinions from the far right. I broadly agree with what you have posted here.
Bletchleyite
Veteran Member
Agreed. Without any doubt the UK needs reform. But the kind of reform needed is very unlikely to come from Reform.
Indeed, this is very difficult indeed, particularly as the far right tend to use those rational arguments to further the fact that they just don't like people with brown skin.