Yes, you would think by now staff absences would be lower than they were at the beginning of the year, so some of the 'temporarily withdrawn' services should have been able to be reinstated
I sense a further reduced timetable coming soon as this level of performance isn't acceptable, and can't be far off the May 2018 shambles
Covid has not gone away, and indeed the latest ONS, React and Zoe surveys show that prevalence has begun to increase again throughout the country. I understand that the level of staff sickness absence is still much higher than would normally be expected at this time of year. Also ASLEF terminated the Northern driver rest day working agreement in January, which has reduced rostering flexibility and made it more likely that cancellations will occur when a driver phones in sick on the day.
In the Rail North Committee meeting on 9th March, Nick Donovan, Northern MD, gave an operational update presentation, which can be viewed in the following webcast starting at 0:41:30:
Rail North Committee - Wednesday 9 March 2022, 11:00am - Start video at 0:38:34 - Transport for the North Webcasting
transportforthenorth.public-i.tv
In summary, a major issue in driver resourcing is a backlog of over a year in route and traction knowledge training days, due to Covid restrictions on in-cab training. So the problem is not so much a shortage in the total number of drivers, more that it is difficult to roster a driver with the right combination of competencies needed for each individual service. Also there have been large numbers of drivers retiring or resigning, so to some extent it is a case of "two steps forward, one step back" on training. Northern is unlikely to clear the training backlog until well into next year and it may well continue into 2024.
Nick said that the current reduced timetable is planned to continue more or less as is until December, but with some "adjustments" from May (some further reductions, some reinstatements), determined through analysis of where demand recovery is strongest and where the revenue and economic benefits will be greatest.
My impression is that Northern is under considerable financial pressure from Government to reduce operating costs and maximise ticket revenue.