Northern Service Reductions from 4th Jan 2022

[Starmill]

Leave prior to the 25 February for covid or suspected covid isolation wouldn't have come with a sick note, although it may well have come with a positive test. I'm not sure why anyone other than the employee and their line manager or senior management would have the right to see a note however, or know the specifics behind someone's leave.

Sick leave for short periods is self certifiable and if someone is abusing that process there is a procedure which can be followed. Of course in any large workplace there's always a small proportion of people who take liberties with paid sick leave, but this isn't going to be a cause of the current problems.

 

[Peterthegreat]

Leave prior to the 25 February for covid or suspected covid isolation wouldn't have come with a sick note, although it may well have come with a positive test. I'm not sure why anyone other than the employee and their line manager or senior management would have the right to see a note however, or know the specifics behind someone's leave.

Sick leave for short periods is self certifiable and if someone is abusing that process there is a procedure which can be followed. Of course in any large workplace there's always a small proportion of people who take liberties with paid sick leave, but this isn't going to be a cause of the current problems.

Indeed. However I suspect non-personal details are correlated such as xx amount of staff were absent last week. Whether this breaks down into more detail I don't know - e.g. x drivers were off sick with Covid at depot y.

 

[northernchris]

Covid has not gone away, and indeed the latest ONS, React and Zoe surveys show that prevalence has begun to increase again throughout the country. I understand that the level of staff sickness absence is still much higher than would normally be expected at this time of year. Also ASLEF terminated the Northern driver rest day working agreement in January, which has reduced rostering flexibility and made it more likely that cancellations will occur when a driver phones in sick on the day.

In the Rail North Committee meeting on 9th March, Nick Donovan, Northern MD, gave an operational update presentation, which can be viewed in the following webcast starting at 0:41:30:

Rail North Committee - Wednesday 9 March 2022, 11:00am - Start video at 0:38:34 - Transport for the North Webcasting

Rail North Committee - Wednesday 9 March 2022, 11:00am - Start video at 0:38:34 - Transport for the North Webcasting

transportforthenorth.public-i.tv

In summary, a major issue in driver resourcing is a backlog of over a year in route and traction knowledge training days, due to Covid restrictions on in-cab training. So the problem is not so much a shortage in the total number of drivers, more that it is difficult to roster a driver with the right combination of competencies needed for each individual service. Also there have been large numbers of drivers retiring or resigning, so to some extent it is a case of "two steps forward, one step back" on training. Northern is unlikely to clear the training backlog until well into next year and it may well continue into 2024.

Nick said that the current reduced timetable is planned to continue more or less as is until December, but with some "adjustments" from May (some further reductions, some reinstatements), determined through analysis of where demand recovery is strongest and where the revenue and economic benefits will be greatest.

My impression is that Northern is under considerable financial pressure from Government to reduce operating costs and maximise ticket revenue.

Thanks for the link, good to know but I think this is the kind of info Northern should be putting on their website and social media to provide some context to the current performance issues. Hopefully route knowledge won't lapse on lines whose service has been withdrawn entirely adding to the training to be completed, and that planned service enhancements for December 2022 won't be delayed because of this

I'd agree that Northern are on a cost cutting drive, the amount of trains running with fewer carriages than planned is ridiculous now. Yesterday between 4pm and 5pm, only 2 carriages were provided between Leeds and Halifax for example, so increasing revenue is going to be challenging with infrequent, overcrowded trains becoming the norm

 

[Peterthegreat]

Covid has not gone away, and indeed the latest ONS, React and Zoe surveys show that prevalence has begun to increase again throughout the country. I understand that the level of staff sickness absence is still much higher than would normally be expected at this time of year. Also ASLEF terminated the Northern driver rest day working agreement in January, which has reduced rostering flexibility and made it more likely that cancellations will occur when a driver phones in sick on the day.

In the Rail North Committee meeting on 9th March, Nick Donovan, Northern MD, gave an operational update presentation, which can be viewed in the following webcast starting at 0:41:30:

Rail North Committee - Wednesday 9 March 2022, 11:00am - Start video at 0:38:34 - Transport for the North Webcasting

Rail North Committee - Wednesday 9 March 2022, 11:00am - Start video at 0:38:34 - Transport for the North Webcasting

transportforthenorth.public-i.tv

In summary, a major issue in driver resourcing is a backlog of over a year in route and traction knowledge training days, due to Covid restrictions on in-cab training. So the problem is not so much a shortage in the total number of drivers, more that it is difficult to roster a driver with the right combination of competencies needed for each individual service. Also there have been large numbers of drivers retiring or resigning, so to some extent it is a case of "two steps forward, one step back" on training. Northern is unlikely to clear the training backlog until well into next year and it may well continue into 2024.

Nick said that the current reduced timetable is planned to continue more or less as is until December, but with some "adjustments" from May (some further reductions, some reinstatements), determined through analysis of where demand recovery is strongest and where the revenue and economic benefits will be greatest.

My impression is that Northern is under considerable financial pressure from Government to reduce operating costs and maximise ticket revenue.

Thanks for posting this. It doesn't fill me with any confidence. Whilst returning demand will not be uniform it does seem rather obvious that routes which have a reasonable service with few ad-hoc cancellations will have stronger recovery than those which have had services slashed and still suffer frequent day to day cancellations.

 

[CaptainHaddock]

More disruption on the Hallam Line today due to cancellations and engineering. I’m currently marooned in Barnsley due to a cancellation meaning no stopping service to Chapeltown. The timetable is already poor on a Sunday without cancellations. And the remaining 2 car services are crush-loaded, it’s amazing people still bother with train travel.

I had the same problem last night going in the opposite direction from Meadowhall to Elsecar. Basically after the 1945 from Meadowhall the last three trains were all cancelled for no other reason seemingly that Northern simply couldn't be bothered to run them. What an absolute shambles of a company Northern are.

 

[Watershed]

I had the same problem last night going in the opposite direction from Meadowhall to Elsecar. Basically after the 1945 from Meadowhall the last three trains were all cancelled for no other reason seemingly that Northern simply couldn't be bothered to run them. What an absolute shambles of a company Northern are.

It seems rather more likely that they simply didn't have the traincrew (i.e. drivers) to run them. Which of course is very poor, but you can only work with what you have.

That said, I agree with the sentiment - in the above-linked stream of the TfN meeting, it was somewhat concerning to hear Northern's MD's comments around some of the cuts to timetables in May (e.g. removing some recently added Harrogate line services, as well as reducing Whitby services) and how these have been done on the basis of commercial justification.

Ultimately the Northern network is made up of a collection of stations and lines which to varying degrees are always going to lose money, but were saved from the Beeching Axe primarily because of their social value. If we start reducing services based on commercial justification, we're heading into the dangerous territory of managed decline.

It also seems totally at odds with the ongoing murmurings of tenders for new trains. The stock broadly exists to run the full pre-Covid timetable - albeit with the Pacers not being replaced on a 1:1 basis, some services would be shorter than before - so if they are looking to make longer term cuts to certain services, surely that negates the need for any additional stock? It doesn't quite add up and it feels like there are dirty dealings going on with the DfT behind the scenes.

 

[YorksLad12]

It also seems totally at odds with the ongoing murmurings of tenders for new trains. The stock broadly exists to run the full pre-Covid timetable - albeit with the Pacers not being replaced on a 1:1 basis, some services would be shorter than before - so if they are looking to make longer term cuts to certain services, surely that negates the need for any additional stock? It doesn't quite add up and it feels like there are dirty dealings going on with the DfT behind the scenes.

The services might be shorter (there weren't that many three-car Pacers) but the 195s are much longer than the Pacers so you still get a seating bump. But if you're going to cut frequencies you need more/longer trains to carry the same amount of people, so I can sort-of see where they're coming from. I think most people have given up on understanding what DfT are trying to achieve. If anything.

 

[Bletchleyite]

The services might be shorter (there weren't that many three-car Pacers) but the 195s are much longer than the Pacers so you still get a seating bump. But if you're going to cut frequencies you need more/longer trains to carry the same amount of people, so I can sort-of see where they're coming from. I think most people have given up on understanding what DfT are trying to achieve. If anything.

It's clear what they're doing - working out how much money they can save without losing too many votes (which a neo-Beeching would).

 

[yorksrob]

It's exactly what we predicted would happen.

London commuters are missing, so the North where the railway is recovering gets cut to save money.

Too many carriages withdrawn and not enough to replace them and provide the capacity uplift, again to save money.

You didn't need to be Mystic Meg to see it coming.

 

[LOL The Irony]

It's exactly what we predicted would happen.

London commuters are missing, so the North where the railway is recovering gets cut to save money.

Too many carriages withdrawn and not enough to replace them and provide the capacity uplift, again to save money.

You didn't need to be Mystic Meg to see it coming.

Whitehall focusing on London and ignoring everything north of the Watford Gap? Unsurprising and expected, really.

 

[Starmill]

It seems rather more likely that they simply didn't have the traincrew (i.e. drivers) to run them. Which of course is very poor, but you can only work with what you have.

That said, I agree with the sentiment - in the above-linked stream of the TfN meeting, it was somewhat concerning to hear Northern's MD's comments around some of the cuts to timetables in May (e.g. removing some recently added Harrogate line services, as well as reducing Whitby services) and how these have been done on the basis of commercial justification.

Ultimately the Northern network is made up of a collection of stations and lines which to varying degrees are always going to lose money, but were saved from the Beeching Axe primarily because of their social value. If we start reducing services based on commercial justification, we're heading into the dangerous territory of managed decline.

It also seems totally at odds with the ongoing murmurings of tenders for new trains. The stock broadly exists to run the full pre-Covid timetable - albeit with the Pacers not being replaced on a 1:1 basis, some services would be shorter than before - so if they are looking to make longer term cuts to certain services, surely that negates the need for any additional stock? It doesn't quite add up and it feels like there are dirty dealings going on with the DfT behind the scenes.

The stock mix I would argue is highly favourable going into 2023, compared with the pre-2018 situation, even with all of the pacers having been removed from the fleet. A small handful of 195s will be released by the transfer of the semi-fast Manchester to Liverpool services, and the incoming class 156s will have all arrived at some time next year. Neither were part of the original plans for supporting TSR2 from 2019.

At some point next year, additional 323s are due too, which arguably leaves Northern with a larger EMU fleet than can be deployed at all until further electrification is delivered in 2024 or beyond.

There's plenty of trains, if there's a will to use them.

 

[tbtc]

It's exactly what we predicted would happen.

London commuters are missing, so the North where the railway is recovering gets cut to save money.

Too many carriages withdrawn and not enough to replace them and provide the capacity uplift, again to save money.

You didn't need to be Mystic Meg to see it coming.

Agreed - it was obvious that a "nationalised" Northern Rail would suffer in the same way that other public services have...

...the culture of penny pinching/ "temporary" cutbacks/ staffing problems will be familiar to anyone who's worked in other bits of the public sector during the Austerity years (policing/ healthcare/ education/ courts/ local government... you name it!)

And yet people continued to demand nationalisation, despite the clear evidence that this would mean handling control to the Government that had demonstrated no aptitude to run schools/ prisons/ immigration services etc

Take Back Control, eh?

 

[Geeves]

A lot of the short forming is not down to cost saving. Using Saturday as an example every four car 195 had been split on the Calder Valley by 1400 due to various faults and trying to use one train to then form two different services. By the late afternoon a combination of no drivers and no stock meant even more cancelled trains.

 

[Deerfold]

A lot of the short forming is not down to cost saving. Using Saturday as an example every four car 195 had been split on the Calder Valley by 1400 due to various faults and trying to use one train to then form two different services. By the late afternoon a combination of no drivers and no stock meant even more cancelled trains.

Is that down to not doing enough maintenance or trains failing more than expected?

 

[Greybeard33]

Is that down to not doing enough maintenance or trains failing more than expected?

Maintenance staff can be off sick with Covid as well as traincrew, although I do not know if that was a factor last Saturday.

 

[Deerfold]

Maintenance staff can be off sick with Covid as well as traincrew, although I do not know if that was a factor last Saturday.

Nor me. That's why I'm asking.

 

[Xenophon PCDGS]

I thought that long-running RMT strike some time ago on Northern would have made prospective rail travellers aware of disruption to their normal rail journeys now that the OLR have also chosen to use similar methodology of travel restriction.

 

[yorksrob]

Agreed - it was obvious that a "nationalised" Northern Rail would suffer in the same way that other public services have...

...the culture of penny pinching/ "temporary" cutbacks/ staffing problems will be familiar to anyone who's worked in other bits of the public sector during the Austerity years (policing/ healthcare/ education/ courts/ local government... you name it!)

And yet people continued to demand nationalisation, despite the clear evidence that this would mean handling control to the Government that had demonstrated no aptitude to run schools/ prisons/ immigration services etc

Take Back Control, eh?

Maybe to an extent. But by a similar token, why give back more rolling stock than required, except to save money on the I'll conceived leasing system.

 

[northernchris]

A lot of the short forming is not down to cost saving. Using Saturday as an example every four car 195 had been split on the Calder Valley by 1400 due to various faults and trying to use one train to then form two different services. By the late afternoon a combination of no drivers and no stock meant even more cancelled trains.

Saturday wasn't a one off though. Looking at the current performance stats on Northern's website which covered February 6th - March 5th, the West & North Yorkshire service group which covers Calder Valley had a short form rate of 15.2% and a cancellation rate of 8.8%. This is despite the temporary timetable being in place to stabilise the service.

Northern management seemingly don't care about the current performance, as far as I can see there's nothing on their website or social media channels to explain why things are so bad at the moment or what's being done to restore a decent service. There did however manage to put out a press release relating to the incident near Bolton yesterday, which shows where their priorities lie

 

[Peterthegreat]

Saturday wasn't a one off though. Looking at the current performance stats on Northern's website which covered February 6th - March 5th, the West & North Yorkshire service group which covers Calder Valley had a short form rate of 15.2% and a cancellation rate of 8.8%. This is despite the temporary timetable being in place to stabilise the service.

Northern management seemingly don't care about the current performance, as far as I can see there's nothing on their website or social media channels to explain why things are so bad at the moment or what's being done to restore a decent service. There did however manage to put out a press release relating to the incident near Bolton yesterday, which shows where their priorities lie

Same period for South and East Yorkshire
Short form 7.0%
Cancellations 12.7% and this where services have been slashed "to improve performance"

The short term notice given, the replacement of services by buses, the frequent cancellations and no hint of any apologies other than "shortage of train crew".
No information as to what they are doing to recruit staff etc, etc.
As you say we know where their priorities are.

 

[Watershed]

Saturday wasn't a one off though. Looking at the current performance stats on Northern's website which covered February 6th - March 5th, the West & North Yorkshire service group which covers Calder Valley had a short form rate of 15.2% and a cancellation rate of 8.8%. This is despite the temporary timetable being in place to stabilise the service.

Northern management seemingly don't care about the current performance, as far as I can see there's nothing on their website or social media channels to explain why things are so bad at the moment or what's being done to restore a decent service. There did however manage to put out a press release relating to the incident near Bolton yesterday, which shows where their priorities lie

...and despite services being summarily removed from the timetable the night before when they realise the relevant shifts are uncovered.

 

[Peterthegreat]

...and despite services being summarily removed from the timetable the night before when they realise the relevant shifts are uncovered.

Absolutely. Fraud on a grand scale.

 

[MikeWM]

When is there going to be information on what is running via Pontefract Baghill the week after next? I'll be in the area in a fortnight and it would be rather useful to know whether to expect a train, a bus, or nothing.

Currently, and next week, the Sheffield-York service is still replacement buses (for Moorthorpe-York) , but there is nothing - train or bus - listed on NR or RTT for the following week or afterwards.

 

[Peterthegreat]

When is there going to be information on what is running via Pontefract Baghill the week after next? I'll be in the area in a fortnight and it would be rather useful to know whether to expect a train, a bus, or nothing.

Currently, and next week, the Sheffield-York service is still replacement buses (for Moorthorpe-York) , but there is nothing - train or bus - listed on NR or RTT for the following week or afterwards.

Services for Sheffield to York (and Sheffield - Cleethorpes via Brigg) were in the train service data base for this coming Saturday (19th) they were removed overnight last Tuesday. Unfortunately this is typical of Northern - the information is a disgrace.

 

[casual onion]

Shame about the direct Sheffield - York train, I used to use it at least 3 times a week. Still holding out for the 26th, Northern's website is letting me book it as a train not a bus.

 

[Peterthegreat]

Shame about the direct Sheffield - York train, I used to use it at least 3 times a week. Still holding out for the 26th, Northern's website is letting me book it as a train not a bus.

Good luck with that!
As an aside the trains appear to be running empty most days. I assume this is linked to driver training.

 

[Southern Beau]

Looking ahead to mid-May for Northern Services on NRE on the Blackpool South to Preston branch, I see that the Sunday frequency is returning to hourly again (having been every two hours recent past).

It also shows that the 3 missing Mon-Fri services (05:xx, 11:xx, 17:xx) are not returning yet

 

[MikeWM]

Good luck with that!
As an aside the trains appear to be running empty most days. I assume this is linked to driver training.

Buses have now appeared on NR (and RTT) for the week after next Guess I won't be doing Baghill then.

Looks like buses until at least July (!) if RTT is accurate...

 

[Jamesrob637]

Northern have tweeted on occasions this morning that the current service levels will remain until December. I seriously hope that this is not true.

 

[Failed Unit]

Northern have tweeted on occasions this morning that the current service levels will remain until December. I seriously hope that this is not true.

They really need to replan the timetable if they are having this kind of problem for that long. When you look at the live departure boards from Scunthorpe for example it is depressing reading. However it can't be acceptable to totally close a line without consultation for that long (yes they have a rail replacement bus but that will put people off travelling). I suspect other lines are as bad, but really dft should be stepping in and asking TPE to take up the stops if Northern really can't operate. I am sure other Northern users have the same issue with their specific area where they now either have large gaps or no trains at all.