Most of these proposals seem to involve grandiose stuff about the bigger picture and strategic importance on a national scale, but its maybe worth noting that the two much hyped successes since privatisation (Alloa and Ebbw Vale) were simple short spurs off main lines.
Ebbw Vale wasnt built on the proviso of a diversionary route between Cardiff and Hereford. Theres no pretence that ScotRail will be running Glasgow Aberdeen services through Alloa and Fife instead of Perth. They are just simple branches, termini. Ebbw Vale doesnt provide resilience, it simply provides a direct link from a town to the nearest large city, a reasonable distance for commuters.
Im all in favour of new lines (whether they happen to follow a line on a 1960s map or not).
If I were looking at the success of Ebbw Vale then Id be considering similar shortish branches required to allow places like Portishead/ Tavistock/ Ashington/ Washington a heavy rail link to the nearest large city. Thats the kind of market that rail works best at.
Whilst I dont know Middlewich in Cheshire, it fits the mould well (commuter belt town close enough to a large city to justify a branch). No deluded stuff about it being a useful diversionary line when the WCML is closed or requirements for it to be a 125mph alignment, just a common or garden line in the Manchester travel to work area.
In comparison,
Okehampton to Tavistock/ Workington to Penrith/ Bakewell to Matlock/ Ripon to Northallerton/ Carmarthen to Aberystwyth/ Skipton to Colne etc have relatively flimsy cases (however scenic some of them may be). Thats why their proponents always have to throw in some optimistic blue sky thinking about resilience and strategy to distract from the weakness of the central case.
If that isnt enough, chuck in something sensationalist about the unfairness of the closure, talk about how the passenger estimates will have gone up since the last survey was carried out five years ago to give the impression that the BCR will have improved (whilst carefully ignoring the fact that the costs for Network Rail to do anything seem to have gone up slightly in the intervening period too)...
...you know how it works!
(
interesting that places like Washington dont seem to be mentioned on these kind of threads who wants to do something as functional as connect a large town to the nearest big city when there are daydreams to be dreamed about quaint little branches through relatively empty parts of the country like Dartmoor/ Lake District/ Peak District/ west Wales?)
Reinstated lines that would provide alternative routes and capacity between major population centres include:
-The former Midland line through the Peak District, effectively linking the East Midlands with the Stockport/Manchester conurbation.
-The Woodhead route from Sheffield to Manchester.
40907
If you want to improve service from the East Midlands to Greater Manchester (beyond the current hourly service from Nottingham/ Chesterfield to Stockport/ Manchester which reverses at Sheffield) then the simple option is to run via the chord at Dore (rather than building a railway to a slow alignment through Bakewell).
If you want to increase capacity between Sheffield and Manchester then the Hope Valley line currently sees two or three DMUs per hour which are two/ three/ four coaches long theres plenty of scope to increase the length of these without needing to build a new route (that wouldnt serve Sheffield Midland station).
Since the only intermediate stop on
most Hope Valley services is Stockport (which can obviously accommodate eleven coach 390s), there are no infrastructure enhancements required to extend every fast service from Sheffield to Manchester to six coaches.
Maybe, when the freight dwindles away further, therell be more paths through the Hope Valley too?
Woodhead is a solution in need of a problem. Itd serve Sheffield Victoria (rather than Midland, so wouldnt connect to other services), itd serve nowhere large in between, itd get stuck behind the frequently stopping services from Manchester to Hadfield.
The trouble is that on here, people dont want to talk about straightforward enhancements (like putting extra coaches onto existing services), theres an obsession with how can we attempt to justify re-opening some old line.
I agree in part with your comment on orbital motorways but linking medium sized urban centres by rail would cover a small percentage of those trips and as there are a few million a day of them, as I said just attracting 5% to rail would mean a heavily used rail line.
The problem with Watford-St Albans, Bedford to Bleatchly and to a lessor extent the old Stockport to Stalybridge services is that they are infrequent, stop at every little hamlet on the way and dont provide very good connections with main line services. From memory the old Stockport - Stalybridge line was reasonably well used with people connecting at both stations on to longer distance services but not for local trips.
London overground shows what can be done with high frequency services and integrated ticketing - interested to know what percentage of trips on this line interchange with other routes and modes.
I like the idea, Im just not sure where the major demand is going to be. Whilst roads can cater for thousands of different journeys (a hundred cars passing under a motorway bridge may all have different start points and destinations), heavy rail needs volume to work.
A lot of that road traffic may be pretty local (since roads like the M60 are essentially a by-pass to avoid places like central Stockport), or may be long distance (which may be hard for rail to compete on, I dont know.
Londons Overgound works because the predominantly zone two/ zone three kind of places that it serves are busy enough centres in their own right (Stratford, Camden etc) and theres enough demand to get to them (rather than just into the city centre). I agree that itd be fascinating to know how many of those people are doing longer distance journeys versus local hops.
If Metrolink havent attempted new orbital links like Bury Bolton or Manchester Airport Stockport then Im not convinced that theres going to be enough of a market for heavy rail.
Currently the frequency of services in the South East that dont serve London (i.e. Zone 1-6) are fairly poor. Maybe if EW proves a big market exists from Oxford to Milton Keynes therell be more scope to make a case for other orbital arrangements.
A business case cannot be built on a quarry sending wagon loads and a wish to avoid Leeds railway station.
Agreed
I'm of the view that the existing subsidy is already massive and having suffered years of under investment that the concentration should be mainly on the existing network
100%.
Theres enough of a network to be concentrating on, theres plenty more passengers we could attract on high volume flows suited to mass transportation like rail without worrying about every quaint rural backwater that lost a service fifty years ago.
While Ripon is beginning to sound like an alternate route to Dawlish, substitute Okehampton for Ripon, yes the ECML must have a relief route and yes it must go through Ripon to justify a train service to our insignificant little town (sorry City).
If the ECML does need a relief route at some point then lets consider the best option for that rather than what's best for Ripon.
Good points.
IF theres to be a relief route for the ECML then Id focus resources
north of Darlington (rather than the already generally flat/ straight/ four track/ 125mph line south of Darlington). You could save some time if you avoided the existing curves in County Durham, you could serve Washington, you could free up space on the existing line to give Chester le Street a regular service...
If a relief route
south of Darlington is required then why not build a High Speed alignment broadly parallel to the existing line which could speed up thousands of journeys a day (rather than the itd be handy once in a blue moon diversionary argument for building a new line through Ripon). You could build the alternative route that Virgin were proposing around fifteen years ago to avoid Doncaster (and its flat junctions) giving a faster journey from London to Leeds/ Newcastle/ Edinburgh etc a new alignment through a fairly flat part of the country.
Same goes for a Dawlish Avoiding Line (build your new route to a new alignment to give a faster journey to thousands of passengers a day, rather than building a slow route on a twistier alignment through small places like Okehampton).
But then, Im not hidebound by trying to come up an answer that was on a 1960s map...
Ripon is not an insignificant little town, IT IS A CITY with lots of history that visitors find attractive. It is where Lewis Carroll wrote Alice in Wonderland, where the poet Wilfred Owen lived until he was killed in the Great War, has two army barracks that at one time had 20,000 troops.
The tradition of the Hornblower is performed every night at 9pm in the Market Place to Set the Watch
The population of Ripon is 17,000
I think that the second quote is more pertinent than the first (and even seventeen thousand is more than Ive seen it quoted on some websites)...
Yes, famous people
used to live there and there
used to be a lot of soldiers there, but these things are pretty irrelevant when assessing the case for a railway in the twenty first century.
The number of people living there is what matters; seventeen thousand isnt a huge number.
Youve taken a line that has a potentially good case (a place on the outskirts of the Leeds travel to work commuter belt) but youve weakened the argument by throwing in a lot of wibble (to use a term popular on this forum) forget about Wilfred Owen/ aspirations for TPE services/ Dr Beeching/ Lewis Carroll/ ECML diversions/ Hornblowers, direct services to Edinburgh or Liverpool / historic populations of barracks or a station at Lightwater Valley...
...focus on the straightforward (Ripon has a good commercial bus service to Harrogate/ Leeds which shows that theres demand... Harrogate has similar demographics/ tourists and will get four trains an hour to Leeds before long... therell be regular services from Leeds to Harrogate that terminate there so that theres a practical service to run through to Ripon without needing more paths at any bottlenecks...).
It ought to be a simple enough case to make, but youve made it quite convoluted by adding a load of smoke and mirrors.
in an online poll conducted by the local newspaper recently, 96.8% of respondents (460) wanted the railway back. That is a very good representative sample
A very good representative sample because it tells you what you want to believe?
Under five hundred people bothered to respond... thats enough to fill one three coach train a day... is that your most compelling evidence?
If we based everything on local newspaper opinion polls, petitions and heavily loaded surveys, wed never get anything done. They should really be scrapped for giving false hope to naive people.
the level of crayonista wibbling in this thread is outrageous! i love these threads. Cheers me up no end. Thanks!
Agreed its quite entertaining to see some of the desperate excuses on here... such creativity and optimism (without having to worry about pesky facts).
It would have to be considered in the business case but it has almost zero value as a diversion route.
Diversion routes generally aren't worth it. Cheaper to bustitute.
1) Use as a diversionary route is not a firm foundation for a business case. Whilst beloved by spotters the TOC's view them somewhat differently
True.
Generally massively overstated by enthusiasts, rather than being seen as a marginal little bonus that is never going to be enough to tip the scales.
I agree reopening to Ripon probably has a stronger case than most
With four trains an hour from Leeds to Harrogate in the new Northern franchise (but only one continuing all the way to York), theres certainly scope for a branch to Ripon.
Its roughly thirty miles from Leeds, so should be decent enough commuter distance (albeit with a population of roughly fifteen thousand).
The trouble is that the idea of a spur from Harrogate to Leeds gets dressed up with a load of irrelevance (conspiracy stuff about Beeching) and crayonista aspiration (oh, its going to be a 125mph electrified railway from Harrogate to Northallerton, with regular services to Edinburgh/ Liverpool/ London? :roll

...
Trying to give the impression that itd be better for long distance services to run via Ripon instead of York (despite Yorks significantly larger population/ connections etc) doesnt help either. I think itd have a better case if we focussed on the actual day-to-day aspects.
Same goes for alternatives to Dawlish. The simple idea of a short branch to Tavistock (which had five commercial buses per hour to Plymouth last time I checked i.e. a decent market) seems perfectly sensible. However, enthusiasts cant accept something so straightforward so it gets dressed up as WE COULD REINTRODUCE DIRECT SERVICES FROM WATERLOO TO PLYMOUTH VIA OKEHAMPTON LIKE THE GOOD OLD DAYS (as well as the typically overstated diversionary benefits).
See also the SELRAP claims about running fast trains from Hull to Liverpool via Skipton and Colne... which is my favourite bit of delusion!
You also continue to ignore the level of use that the current East-West links receive - both Bedford - Bletchley and Peterborough - Leicester are pretty much hourly services using 2 car DMUs - rarely if ever are these full to capacity aside the odd peak hour journey - to pretend or believe there is demand for more East West links in parallel to these is ignoring the reality of what is used now
This needs repeating.
If the direct service from Birmingham/ Leicester to Peterborough/ Cambridge/ Stansted can only justify a two/three coach DMU once an hour then Northampton to Peterborough is going to be a fraction of that (i.e. not worth building).
I thought that but I see that national express run up to 5 coaches an hour between the two and 75 a day in total each way
Usually as part of a longer distance route though.
So if you were running a coach from Birmingham to Gatwick, the logical route takes you right past Heathrow (M40, M25, M23). On that basis you'd not run a coach to Heathrow and another to Gatwick, instead you'd run it between the two, though the number of people travelling between the airports is marginal.
Someone else tried to claim there was a traffic flow between Luton Airport and Stansted Airport on the basis a couple of NX routes run between them, whilst overlooking the fact that the routes then continued beyond Luton to places like Oxford or Birmingham - so were actually the logical route to take to get to Stansted.
What demand is there for a Heathrow - Gatwick link?
People tend not to travel between airports
Agreed. I think that the Airport to Airport argument is massively overegged by enthusiasts (better not call them Spotters...

) e.g. the suggestion of using Crossrail for Heathrow to Stansted.
National Express run a number of coaches between Airports (e.g. I travelled on one of their services from Sheffield to East Midlands Airport a couple of years ago the coach was continuing beyond EMA to serve both Heathrow and Gatwick) but thats because NatEx have segmented the market they know that a coach from Yorkshire to (just) Heathrow wont be profitable so tag it on to serve other Airports too they know that the leisure market is more bothered about a direct service to an Airport than a fast service to an Airport.
The only direct train services I can think of between two Airports are the Thameslink one from Gatwick to Luton and the XC one from Birmingham to Southampton(?).
Company cars are a tax perk - in other words, other taxpayers are subsidising you. It's not difficult to understand
If it's that bad hand it back, but you won't of course because it's a nice tax perk
Any chance you could set up a thread entitled Why I Have A Chip On My Shoulder About Company Cars so that you dont feel the need to try the same old arguments on unrelated threads?
A lot of the sensational successes in Scotland and Wales have been up and running for a lot longer than three months and are still proving vital to their communities.
BCRs are being made to look increasingly useless in view of the sensational success of the reopenings in Scotland and Wales
Presumably you arent both talking about
every reopening - I rarely see enthusiasts boasting about figures for Cardiff Airport or Larkhall...
...whilst I dont have figures for each new route, I certainly remember that the Newcraighall branch underperformed against expected passenger numbers as I had family living locally...
...let me guess, youre only talking about the two outliers of Alloa and Ebbw Vale?
Both of those were massively underestimated for specific reasons that I presume you both know about?
Or are you just deciding that BCRs are useless because they dont give you the answer that you want?
(nice weasel words about being vital to communities, since the vitality is something unquantifiable that you can always chuck in if the passenger numbers dont stack up)
Why do you participate on this forum when your attitude is so anti-rail?
I do so love it when people get accused of being anti-rail just because they dont share the same happy clapper enthusiasm that all of the Crayonistas have...
Sorry if some of us temper our enthusiasm with inconvenient things like facts and costs
That understates Marples' conflict of interest. He owned a road construction company. This was raised at the time and he agreed to give up his directorship - he passed it to his wife.
If there was such a big conspiracy with Marples then why did Labour not promise to re-open a few lines? Not every alignment had been put permanently out of use by the time they came to power in 1964. The previous incoming Labour Government had achieved huge things in only five years, so surely the mid 60s one could have reinstated some railway lines?
Oh, wait, they actually closed more (under Castle), which suggests that the closures were more than just a collusion between two blokes (however simple a story that is to believe).
An interesting point but let us examine the reality.
The 'experts' predicted that Ebbw Vale Parkway would attract up to 50,000 passengers annually, after five years. The reality has been somewhat at odds with this forecast and the figures put forward have proved to be hopelessly wide of the mark
It should also be noted that the original estimate of passenger numbers also included services to the important City of Newport, with a population of about 150,000
Yes, let us examine the reality. The original estimated passenger figures included services to Newport...
...in fact, they only included services to Newport. The fact that Cardiff (big city, capital, WAG etc) is more popular than Newport shouldnt be surprising.
Werent the forecasts for Ebbw Vale line based on the assumption that services would run into Newport - whereas running them into Cardiff made it a far more attractive
Yes, but dont upset the revisionists with facts.
Figures for Ebbw Vale were based on a service to just Newport.
A combination of the steel works closing (meaning thousands of people now had to travel out of Ebbw Vale for work) and running the direct service to Cardiff instead meant that the passenger numbers were significantly higher.
That doesnt call BCRs into question, it just means that we need to be careful what questions we ask BCRs to assess. Hardly surprising that Cardiff was a much more popular destination than Newport. Also, the BCR presumably wouldnt have assumed the closure of the Steelworks (and the knock on increase in commuting from Ebbw Vale from people who suddenly needed to leave the town to find employment).
You could get half hourly from Harrogate to Ripon with a very lightweight infrastructure - extending to Northallerton will, at least, double the cost of the project. For every little gain.
Could Harrogate to Ripon sustain a half hourly service with a single track branch? It probably doesnt need anything spectacular.
There is a 2012? EU directive that greenhouse gases emissions from transport must be reduced by 60% by 2050. To reach that target we must start yesterday on reinstating railways.
A DMU is only more efficient than private transport above a certain number of passengers (I think
Bald Rick suggested it was around a hundred?). In which case should we start cutting lightly loaded train services?
If there are fewer than fifty people on board a DMU then would it not make more sense to provide a bus/ coach instead? That is, if you are focussing on reducing the emissions (rather than grasping for more excuses to reopen old railway lines through relatively empty parts of the country)?