• Our new ticketing site is now live! Using either this or the original site (both powered by TrainSplit) helps support the running of the forum with every ticket purchase! Find out more and ask any questions/give us feedback in this thread!

New Lines needed

Status
Not open for further replies.

deltic08

On Moderation
Joined
26 Aug 2013
Messages
2,900
Location
North
Self employed can claim their mileage from their 'home' to a place of work for a period of up to 2 years as many contractors do once they've gone beyond 2 years at the same location the Inland Revenue treats it as a permanent place of work and they can no longer claim - permanent employees are not able to do that. So self-employed have a number of advantages.

Road fund licence (or road tax) is, as you well know, only one of a number of taxes which motorists pay. Others include VAT on parts, fuel duty and Insurance Premium Tax. A higher mileage motorist will incur far more of those than you.

Either way - there's no company car I know of which attracts a £ 100 year tax bill - £ 1000, yes. £ 1500 definitely.

Before I retired, I operated at three different hospitals each week. Although paid by the NHS I was classed as self employed and was able to claim travel "expenses" to the two hospitals furthest away. That was definitely a tax perk as it paid for 60% of my car expenses per year including servicing and repairs, insurance and car tax AND AA subs.. The bigger the car the more of a perk. I do miss my Aston.
 
Sponsor Post - registered members do not see these adverts; click here to register, or click here to log in
R

RailUK Forums

A0

On Moderation
Joined
19 Jan 2008
Messages
7,751
Before I retired, I operated at three different hospitals each week. Although paid by the NHS I was classed as self employed and was able to claim travel "expenses" to the two hospitals furthest away. That was definitely a tax perk as it paid for 60% of my car expenses per year including servicing and repairs, insurance and car tax AND AA subs.. The bigger the car the more of a perk. I do miss my Aston.

Right - fine.

But you're not talking about the stuff 'muddythefish' was.

He was banging on about company cars which an employee receives as being a tax perk - which I and others have pointed out isn't the case.

Whereas self-employed people have various tax breaks - one of which is the ability to claim home to office mileage as an expense that is not permissible for an employee. However under IR35 regs it is now limited to two years from home to a single location - after that the taxman views it as your permanent place of work and removes the perk. That said a self-employed person technically doesn't have a company car in the way an employee might.
 

lejog

Established Member
Joined
27 Feb 2015
Messages
1,323
I don't think that's correct. I think it's more likely that 97% of posters on this forum would agree with the reinstatement; it's just that you've got into a lengthy disagreement with a few people who don't or have doubts. A large volume of posts by a handful of individuals is not (necessarily) representative of the general forum opinion. :D

Although of course it depends whether when you refer to 'posters on here' you mean only those who have posted on this particular thread or those who post on railforums.co.uk as a whole (and may be reading this particular thread without commenting because they agree with you or one of the other posters and consider them chiming in is redundant).

Apologies if this is overly pedantic, just don't assume opinion here is (necessarily) against you based on flimsy evidence!

Having helped present the case to decision makers in the Treasury for £800m of public money to be invested in rail in the North, you can take it that I'm in favour of such investment. However I've seen nothing in the case presented here for the Ripon line that would convince any decision maker, let alone the Treasury that a penny should be invested. Which is of course why the campaign for reinstatement has got nowhere in 10 years, 20years, whatever. If afraid Deltic08 and his friends need to up their game when the competition for funds is fierce. Every possible hole in your case is going to examined in detail and challenged before a case is accepted and its no use just blustering and abusing people when they challenge your case. You have to win them over with persuasive arguments.

Apart from the fact that the business case for reinstatement is not particularly compelling, the reinstatement of a rural line serving one market town/cathedral city is just flying in the face of the current "Northern Powerhouse" (sorry) political agreement between the government/Treasury and the major councils that transport links between the North's major cities need investment to simulate economic growth.
 
Last edited:

HSTEd

Veteran Member
Joined
14 Jul 2011
Messages
20,269
Again someone posting through their bqckside without checking background. Who mentioned diverting from Doncaster via Leeds to York? Not me. This would not divert around a blockage north of York. I suggest you buy yourself a rail atlas.

I was proposing you divert from Doncaster to Northallerton - bypassing the entire shebang without using the single track bottleneck on the Harrogate line.
The diversion route for blockage between York and Northallerton would be from Skelton Junction to Starbeck and then north through Ripon to Northallerton. This adds less than 30 minutes to journey time and saves refunds that are only given when destination is reached more than 30 minutes late.
Assuming you can stage enough trains to make a difference through the single track between Poppleton and Hammerton.
That would cripple any attempt to use the line for major diversions - leaving you with a feel-good factor diversion that won't actually pay for itself in terms of avoided fines.
Of course if it was decided Harrogate-Ripon-Northallerton would be used as a diversion route it would be scaled up in infrastructure. York-Harrogate is being upgraded in CP6 (originally planned for CP5) with better signalling and redualling to reduce journey times and allow an increase in capacity.

That would marginally improve the case but you are still going to have a hard time justifying a psychological improvement in service - unless you want to double track this new line entirely, which will put your cost through the roof - possibly to the extent that you could handle blockages between York and Northallerton with a parallel LGV.
You appear to nit pick for your own gratification.
And?
Creating a through route evidently improves BCR.
No it doesn't - if that were true then we would never have branch lines, everything would be implemented as loops.
You are doubling, or apparently with your signalling improvements, more than doubling the price of this project - and you have to be able to present extra benefits to defray that cost.
Reinstating the whole route will reduce journey time from Harrogate northwards by an hour using through trains instead of travelling via York and changing there.
As opposed to a train that just runs into York station and reverses out again?

Journey time from Harrogate to york is about 39 minutes, journey time from York to 23 minutes - so even with a few minutes of timetable slack you have invented a way to travel from Harrogate to Northallerton in about 6-7 minutes.
Most impressive.

Intercity quality trains will be introduced instead of the crap being used currently. The difference in quality by changing at York or Leeds onto the Harrogate Loop is very noticeable and is quoted by Harrogate Conference Centre as a disincentive for delegates to travel to Harrogate by train.
Obviously intercity type trains will explode if they are run on the existing lines because they aren't engineered to a high enough standard?
And if you want more intercity trains to Harrogate then you should lobby for that - because even if this line is opened all the way to Northallerton you are far moer likely to get 185 esque things than IEPs.
Ripon will have a service to the north that doesn't exist at present. Only five buses a day connect with the railway by a 15 minute walk at Northallerton. Only four during school holidays. Before closure in 1967, Darlington was the preferred shopping centre to Harrogate or Leeds. The replacement bus only lasted two years as bus was a poor substitute for the train in comfort and journey time so wasn't used. Families that previously commuted by train even moved to Northallerton or Ripon or Darlington rather than commute by bus even though they had cars.
And? It is not 1967 any more.
Darlington has lost this position and there is no point expending resources trying to turn back the clock. And it seems highly doubtful that Darlington of today could compete with Leeds or Harrogate of today.
Nevermind whether it is right to spend public money on such an evident zero sum game project.

Stupid reply after all I have said about through trains, possibility of freight trains from a substantial warehousing site on the line and a diversion for York-Northallerton in an emergency.
Through trains that almost noone will use and a freight depot that will probably never see a train. And an ineffective diversion for a handful of occasions?
What a great business case that is.
Why does it have to be competitive? It will provide a service to Harrogate and Ripon that they do not have now and unlikely to get without the line reopening. Light rail has already been dismissed by two authorities and Network Rail as I have already said.
Who said the light rail project would be in Ripon or Harrogate? That money could be spent anywhere on anywhere that wants a lightweight tram system.
This is a nation state you know?
And it has to be competitive otherwise it is a waste of valuable resources.

If it doesn't have to be competitive then what argumenst have you got against an extension of HS2 to Wick or Thurso?
If Leeds-Harrogate is electrified in CP6 as planned then Harrogate-Ripon-northallerton will have to be. Leeds-Harrogate after electrification is planned for 15 minutes non-stop and Harrogate-Northallerton with one stop at Ripon is 24 minutes. Total 40 minutes. That will be difficult to beat where time via York is 50 minutes. 15 miles shorter is 15 miles shorter.

Assuming the 140mph running via York doesn't happen ever you mean?
And how many trains are they planning on running non stop to Harrogate? As far as I know there is only the ICEC trains that do that currently and paths on the Harrogate line are far more likely to be eaten up by the high intensity service that is often proposed for along there.
Before you question Leeds-Harrogate in 15 minutes, I regularly used the 0948 Yorkshire Pullman from Harrogate in the 1970s, whilst at Leeds University, which was Deltic + 10 and 18-20 minutes was easily attainable then on 60ft bullhead rail. Much improvement has been done since.

Yes, the railway has slown down since then since there tend to be more things in the way.

EDIT:

And to clarify for anyone interested - I am broadly in favour of a reopening to Ripon.... if that reopening consists of a sensibly specced single track scheme. Indeed it might be possible to achieve half hourly services without any passing places at all.
Only one signalled position and that would be at the entrance.
Although that would be extremly tight on the timetable and a single dynamic loop would be infinitely more reliable.
 
Last edited:

deltic08

On Moderation
Joined
26 Aug 2013
Messages
2,900
Location
North
LOL, more abuse I see. Very reasoned. I note your lack of reply to two of my questions about about admitting whether your post was in error and whether you treat your voters this way. I will leave others to draw their own conclusions on your lack of answers.



It is normal internet etiquette to provide links to backup up your assertions (as I did with the links to the CP5 plan and the HLOS in my post), not to shout at people and expecting them to start to go round searching themselves. If people can not substantiate your posts without going to a great deal of research themselves, then your posts are going to be ignored.



Thanks for the clarification of your statistics. So basically you are saying that Network Rail are wrong in their growth assumptions and that the DfT/franchises/Network Rail are wrong to announce new services starting in 2019. Well we can wait and see whether you are right or they are. A couple of questions though.

Since you were at this presentation by Network Rail, when they announced this 5% growth estimate did they specifically say that the capacity improvements would only support 5% growth? It would be good practice to allow for more than this in the infrastructure and allow extra services to be run if growth proves higher. I don't know about the Leeds-York line but I understand this is the case for the Calder Valley line, which of course is highly relevant because for extra Calder Valley trains to be run into Leeds they need to be extended east of Leeds. Your reasoning assumes that the capacity improvements will only support 5% growth.

Anyway what is the relevance of this to the reopening of the Ripon line? If the capacity upgrade is not possible by 2019 then reinstating the Leeds-Ripon-Northallerton line certainly will be. Are you on a personal crusade to show that the rail industry were wrong to ignore you in the past?

At the risk of being late for a very important meeting as mentioned previously I have explained to a previous poster.

I do not provide links as I know not how. I notice other posters rarely do. I am not known by family and friends or my constituents as one who spreads misinformation. I am very rarely wrong. That sounds very arrogant I know but true. In my job I had to be 100% sure of myself in making the right decision. Lives were at stake.

I actually asked Mr Parry-Jones, who was almost within touching distance, what was his estimated growth in CP5 as growth in CP4 in the Leeds City region had been 10% per annum average. This was specifically to find out was to be done on the Leeds-York line already mentioned by Phil Verster in the Yorkshire Post the previous year that it was a problem that substantial amounts of money would have to be spent on here and between Hare Park and Doncaster to sort.

His unequivocal answer was 3% for the UK but 5% for Leeds City region.

This reinforced my campaign to reinstate Harrogate-Northallerton and where reinstating Harrogate-Wetherby-Tadcaster-Church Fenton with reinstated chord ay South Elmsall with quad track from there to Doncaster for freight diversion off the ECML and stopping passenger trains was born.

Quad track would allow freight to have a dedicated route along the west side of Doncaster station, over Bessecarr Flyover and on to Lincoln without conflicting with the ECML south of Newcastle. This would also answer Phil Versters problem with Leeds-Doncaster stoppers delaying Leeds-KX trains by stopping at Bentley. 10 minutes could be shaved off Leeds-Doncaster if the stoppers weren't on the same line south of South Elmsall.

Having spoken to my consultants just yesterday we have almost decided to look only at Harrogate-Northallerton as that is most important to me and Ripon especially as the study may be funded by the people of Ripon. Wetherby and Tadcaster Town Councils have declined to part fund. So has Harrogate.

I questioned 5% per annum again and was told that this is all that was expected and that is all that would be planned for during CP5.

Actual usage in the 2014/15 ORR report for this line is 7% after a bit of calculation. I haven't had time to do the usage figure for the other radial routes from Leeds but the Aire valley services at a glance could be more than 7%. Leeds has gone up 2 million to a touch under 30 million. Mental calculation makes that a touch under 7%

Network Rail is wrong for the year 2014/15.

I think the post electrification draft timetable I saw in 2012 expected start of electric services in 2019. Of course in 2012 I was hoping Harrogate-Northallerton could reopen soon afterwards. There could still be electrification of York-Leeds by 2019 as it is only 17? miles between Neville Hill and Colton Junction and there is sufficient stock to extend Bradford FS-Leeds services to York. There is obviously slippage due to GWML and the Lancashire triangle as read on this site but 2022 is now the target date for Manchester-Leeds-Selby.

Let me know if I have missed anything.
 
Last edited by a moderator:

snowball

Established Member
Joined
4 Mar 2013
Messages
8,144
Location
Leeds
The motorway north of Barton is still only dual all the way to Gateshead. .

I assume you mean it has two lanes in each direction. Dual means separate carriageways for the two directions with a central reserve between them, regardless of the number of lanes on each.
 
Last edited:

The Ham

Veteran Member
Joined
6 Jul 2012
Messages
12,021
I assume you mean it has two lanes in each direction. Dual means separate carriageways for the two directions with a central reserve between them, regardless of the number of lanes on each.

Quite a dual carriageway can have anything between 1 and 4 lanes.
 

lejog

Established Member
Joined
27 Feb 2015
Messages
1,323
At the risk of being late for a very important meeting as mentioned previously I have explained to a previous poster.

I do not provide links as I know not how. I notice other posters rarely do. I am not known by family and friends or my constituents as one who spreads misinformation. I am very rarely wrong. That sounds very arrogant I know but true. In my job I had to be 100% sure of myself in making the right decision. Lives were at stake.

You are incapable of posting links, something a six year old kid could do, yet you have the nerve to shout (use of capital letters in internet parlance) telling others to do their own research. :D:D:D:D:D:D As someone with a background in science, you should be aware that scientific papers always quote their sources meticulously, not tell people to do their own research. Of course a lot of people don't provide links, but, just like the poster who insists company cars are a tax perk without presenting any evidence or the scientific paper without proper references they lack any credibility. And I'm afraid that your posts on this board lack credibility, however insufferable your arrogance. If you are campaigning for railway reinstatement, you are not now closed away in your own little world in your operating theater, where you are god. In the real world, the scientific method of review by peers and others takes place even in business and government circles. Every point of your case will be subject to forensic questioning and will have to be persuasive in replying. Not telling your peers and superiors that they are idiots, which appears to be your standard response to reasonable questions on this forum.

I actually asked Mr Parry-Jones, who was almost within touching distance, what was his estimated growth in CP5 as growth in CP4 in the Leeds City region had been 10% per annum average. This was specifically to find out was to be done on the Leeds-York line already mentioned by Phil Verster in the Yorkshire Post the previous year that it was a problem that substantial amounts of money would have to be spent on here and between Hare Park and Doncaster to sort.

His unequivocal answer was 3% for the UK but 5% for Leeds City region.

This reinforced my campaign to reinstate Harrogate-Northallerton and where reinstating Harrogate-Wetherby-Tadcaster-Church Fenton with reinstated chord ay South Elmsall with quad track from there to Doncaster for freight diversion off the ECML and stopping passenger trains was born.

Quad track would allow freight to have a dedicated route along the west side of Doncaster station, over Bessecarr Flyover and on to Lincoln without conflicting with the ECML south of Newcastle. This would also answer Phil Versters problem with Leeds-Doncaster stoppers delaying Leeds-KX trains by stopping at Bentley. 10 minutes could be shaved off Leeds-Doncaster if the stoppers weren't on the same line south of South Elmsall.

Having spoken to my consultants just yesterday we have almost decided to look only at Harrogate-Northallerton as that is most important to me and Ripon especially as the study may be funded by the people of Ripon. Wetherby and Tadcaster Town Councils have declined to part fund. So has Harrogate.

I questioned 5% per annum again and was told that this is all that was expected and that is all that would be planned for during CP5.

Actual usage in the 2014/15 ORR report for this line is 7% after a bit of calculation. I haven't had time to do the usage figure for the other radial routes from Leeds but the Aire valley services at a glance could be more than 7%. Leeds has gone up 2 million to a touch under 30 million. Mental calculation makes that a touch under 7%

Network Rail is wrong for the year 2014/15.

I think the post electrification draft timetable I saw in 2012 expected start of electric services in 2019. Of course in 2012 I was hoping Harrogate-Northallerton could reopen soon afterwards. There could still be electrification of York-Leeds by 2019 as it is only 17? miles between Neville Hill and Colton Junction and there is sufficient stock to extend Bradford FS-Leeds services to York. There is obviously slippage due to GWML and the Lancashire triangle as read on this site but 2022 is now the target date for Manchester-Leeds-Selby.

Let me know if I have missed anything.

I've read this grotesque brain dump three times and fail to find any answer to my my first simple question. I repeat, when Network announced this 5% growth estimate did they specifically say that the capacity improvements would only support 5% growth? In the context of the post I obviously was referring specifically to the Leeds-York line. I don't see anything in your post that addresses what the capacity improvements will support, only that you are forecasting growth different from Network Rail's.

It does seem to me that by referring back to 2012 you are indeed on a personal crusade to show that the rail industry were wrong to ignore you in the past. Talk of reinstating Ripon-Northallerton is irrelevant in 2016 in the context of possible delays to capacity improvements between Leeds and York due in 2019. (Even if you are right and the rail industry is wrong!).

Having spoken to my consultants just yesterday we have almost decided to look only at Harrogate-Northallerton as that is most important to me and Ripon especially as the study may be funded by the people of Ripon. Wetherby and Tadcaster Town Councils have declined to part fund. So has Harrogate.

Well what a surprise, for all your arrogance you can't even persuade neighbouring towns to contribute to whatever study it is you are planning ( I can't see anything in your post that tells us). :roll: Good luck if you ever go any higher.
 
Last edited:

6Gman

Established Member
Joined
1 May 2012
Messages
9,186
Yes I know. I was just being mischievous at that point because I know from an online poll that 97% of Ripon supports reinstatement and I just repeated that figure on purpose with tongue in cheek.

Online polls are, of course, notoriously inaccurate.

It would be interesting to see a properly conducted poll in the area which offered options for spending that sum of money on:

a) rail reinstatement
b) improvements to the local health service
c) flood defences



I actually think that Harrogate - Ripon - Northallerton would be a very useful link, but where it stands in terms of return on expenditure and by comparison to other potential reopenings I know not.
 

HSTEd

Veteran Member
Joined
14 Jul 2011
Messages
20,269
A minimum cost scheme might well have a decent BCR, but some sort of excessive double track proposal is going to cost hundreds of millions and never break even.

Can you get travel times down 10-12 minutes one way from Harrogate to Ripon?
 

absolutelymilk

Established Member
Joined
18 Jul 2015
Messages
1,587
I do not provide links as I know not how. I notice other posters rarely do.

If you mean that you don't know how to insert links properly into your post, then click on the globe with the (what looks like a lock of some sort to me) on it, paste your link and click ok, and then type whatever name you want the link to have (or just leave it displaying as the URL).

If you mean you actually don't know how to copy and paste the URL of a page then it should be pretty easy to find on Google.
 

HarleyDavidson

Established Member
Joined
23 Aug 2014
Messages
2,544
The North Downs line (which links Reading and Gatwick) shows how successful a line around London can be, even with just a frequency of 2 trains per hour and poor interchange links to some lines (such as the SWML). It should be noted that it was at risk of closure and was "saved" because of the political desire to do so which resulted in cost saving such as doing away with station staff and buildings. Fast forward to today and 3tph is planned and 4tph could be on the cards and electrification may not be too far away either.

The GWR service on NDL is a joke, unreliable and useless.

It's OK if you want to do a journey Guildford - Wokingham, you get an hourly service most of the day, slightly more frequent during peaks, but still the service is unreliable and a lot of staff who live along it and could use it, have abandoned it, because the service is so poor.

As for the smaller stations Guildford - Redhill, that's a complete waste of time, Shalford gets an hourly service to placate the "Bramley Mafia" more of whom I'll mention later. But if you want to go from Chilworth to Gomshall or Gomshall to Dorking West, you can't because if it stops at one, it omits the next!

And as for running 3 trains an hour EW over it, that's going to be completely farcical as GWR can't do the existing timetable reliably and punctually now, so what chances are there with 3 trains an hour? I'd say a big fat ZERO!

As for the NDL being electrified, that will happen a few days before the line shuts up shop, we've been waiting over 40 years for it to happen, some idiot from Shalford Parish Council objected to it saying that "Electric trains are far noisier and more polluting than the diesel ones", that's when they had the Tadpole units on there and BR replaced them with WR 117's aka 3 WRECK or smoke bombs as they were known.

The line needs a significant amount of work on the bridges and it needs resignalling as the last one, other than the recontrol of Shalford was the rationalisation of it in the late 70's/early 80's which saw the closure of Ash/Chilworth/Gomshall boxes and resulted in very long signal sections both sides of Guildford.

The link that needs to be reinstated is the Guildford - Horsham line, with the possibility of >3,000 homes being built around Cranleigh alone, that will bring traffic chaos to the A281 into Guildford and a journey from Cranleigh to/from Guildford in peak time can take you over an hour, whereas a train could do it in not much more than 15-20' and the extension onwards to Horsham would most certainly reduce the bad accident rate of the A281 through Alfold, Rudgwick & Broadbridge Heath, as well as the traffic levels going South to Horsham, it also opens up the possibility of a through service to Crawley (employment hotspot), Gatwick (Circular service via Redhill) & to the South Coast.

What's stopping is is the "Bramley Mafia", a bunch of residents at Linnersh Wood, who's so called "plush properties" back onto the railway formation at Bramley. And then there's the local councillors at Waverley who know that if the line comes back it represents a threat to the service at Farncombe & Godalming, where a significant number of the Tory Hoi-polloi from Bramley go to get their trains to London, open the Cranleigh line back up and the passenger levels at those two will drop quite significantly, so it would allow a reduction in service!
 
Last edited:

muddythefish

On Moderation
Joined
13 May 2014
Messages
1,581
And it will save rather more than '5 minutes' as anyone who's queued to get through Catthorpe, even at a quiet time, will attest.

Perhaps you'd like to do some research before making ill informed posts in future?


I go through Catthorpe regularly (I have to because there is no equivalent railway line) and I have rarely been held up for more than 5 minutes. I know because I've timed it.

Perhaps you'd like to apologise before making presumptive statements.


Not at all - I rarely if ever claim to know or speak of other's personal circumstances - which is exactly what you did about me.

You should take your own advice (see above)

I might call people's views misguided, wrongheaded and various other things.

Your replies usually include some childish insult because you don't like people who hold opposite views to your own. I'm not familiar with the exact phrase but aren't your sort called internet warriors or trolls?
--- old post above --- --- new post below ---
T
I don't usually believe in the moderator's getting involved on discussion boards such as this, however I'm coming to the conclusion that certain posters would benefit from a little time out until they moderate their tone somewhat.


Agreed. Take note of your own behaviour.
 

The Ham

Veteran Member
Joined
6 Jul 2012
Messages
12,021
The GWR service on NDL is a joke, unreliable and useless.

It's OK if you want to do a journey Guildford - Wokingham, you get an hourly service most of the day, slightly more frequent during peaks, but still the service is unreliable and a lot of staff who live along it and could use it, have abandoned it, because the service is so poor.

As for the smaller stations Guildford - Redhill, that's a complete waste of time, Shalford gets an hourly service to placate the "Bramley Mafia" more of whom I'll mention later. But if you want to go from Chilworth to Gomshall or Gomshall to Dorking West, you can't because if it stops at one, it omits the next!

And as for running 3 trains an hour EW over it, that's going to be completely farcical as GWR can't do the existing timetable reliably and punctually now, so what chances are there with 3 trains an hour? I'd say a big fat ZERO!

There are currently 2tph over both sections, one semi fast and one slow, that does mean that some of the minor stations are not well served.

A lot of the reliability issues are related to the tight timetabling of the services due to the lack of DMU's, as such once electrification of the GWML starts to free up them the new 3tph timetable should be better than the existing situation.

As for the NDL being electrified, that will happen a few days before the line shuts up shop, we've been waiting over 40 years for it to happen, some idiot from Shalford Parish Council objected to it saying that "Electric trains are far noisier and more polluting than the diesel ones", that's when they had the Tadpole units on there and BR replaced them with WR 117's aka 3 WRECK or smoke bombs as they were known.

The line needs a significant amount of work on the bridges and it needs resignalling as the last one, other than the recontrol of Shalford was the rationalisation of it in the late 70's/early 80's which saw the closure of Ash/Chilworth/Gomshall boxes and resulted in very long signal sections both sides of Guildford.

NR's region report for this line disagrees with you, it implied that it was a good candidate for electrification (although I agree that it may not be overly easy). It may also mean that (due to better acceleration) that the skip stop pattern is reduced while still maintaining journey times.

Fortunately, within the general population electrification is now generally seen as a good thing. As such local people are less inclined to object. Also, 40 years does tend to remove or curtaile some objectors.

The link that needs to be reinstated is the Guildford - Horsham line, with the possibility of >3,000 homes being built around Cranleigh alone, that will bring traffic chaos to the A281 into Guildford and a journey from Cranleigh to/from Guildford in peak time can take you over an hour, whereas a train could do it in not much more than 15-20' and the extension onwards to Horsham would most certainly reduce the bad accident rate of the A281 through Alfold, Rudgwick & Broadbridge Heath, as well as the traffic levels going South to Horsham, it also opens up the possibility of a through service to Crawley (employment hotspot), Gatwick (Circular service via Redhill) & to the South Coast.

What's stopping is is the "Bramley Mafia", a bunch of residents at Linnersh Wood, who's so called "plush properties" back onto the railway formation at Bramley. And then there's the local councillors at Waverley who know that if the line comes back it represents a threat to the service at Farncombe & Godalming, where a significant number of the Tory Hoi-polloi from Bramley go to get their trains to London, open the Cranleigh line back up and the passenger levels at those two will drop quite significantly, so it would allow a reduction in service!

The problem with the Cranleigh line is more where the service would run to. There's no space to run more services to London, so the best that could be hoped for is (once the junction at Woking is grade separated) is for an extension of the Woking stoppers to provide a direct service. This would mean that most people would change at Woking for a fast service anyway, but would require the Cranleigh line to be electrified.

Before Woking is sorted then a shuttle (DMU) to Woking is probably the best option, with works to enable it to use platform 6 without stopping trains from platform 5 heading towards Brookwood. However that may cause problems if Woking is sorted but Cranleigh isn't electrified by then.

I think that one other option which could be possible would be to run it to Reading as the 4th train per hour over that section, or while the NDL and Cranleigh lines remain diesel lines to undertake platform lengthening for the Northern section and do portion working (5 or 6 coach train Reading to Guildford, splitting at Guildford to serve Gatwick and Cranleigh).

As there will not be through trains to London, it may not impact the existing stations as much as you fear. However, even if people abandon these stations for the new line, the number of parking spaces at the stations (circa 200 total) would imply that it you may see a drop of about 50,000 when station usage is circa 2,000,000 (2.5%) if everyone who drove there stopped using those stations. Given that people can park elsewhere and that there would still be people who would still need to drive to the stations I would be suprised if such a drop came about.

However, given that during recent years Godalming has seen a drop of 270,000 before recovering 85,000 without a drop in services I doubt that you would need to fear it happening if the Cranleigh line were to reopen.

Also, if less people from Bramley drive to other stations it frees up car parking for other users, in doing so some of the loss in established passengers is offset by new passengers.
--- old post above --- --- new post below ---
I would argue that a lot of new lines (at least in the south) would mostly only be justified by them increasing passengers longer distances and/or into London.

As such, until the likes of Crossrail allow the potential for additional services that many reopenings will need to talk a bit of a back seat.

Therefore, like EWR, any new lines should focus on providing new journey opportunities which either currently require going into and then back out of London or which link two nearby lines which would provide useful links locally (especially if these lines predominantly head to different locations).
 

A0

On Moderation
Joined
19 Jan 2008
Messages
7,751
I go through Catthorpe regularly (I have to because there is no equivalent railway line) and I have rarely been held up for more than 5 minutes. I know because I've timed it.

The Benefits Case figures on the Highways Agency website show the largest benefits being towards time savings of over 5 minutes. So I respectfully suggest your "personal experience" is not typical.

The figures are on the HA's website.

Perhaps you'd like to apologise before making presumptive statements.
Nothing to apologise for - your personal experience is not typical of the BCR which the project has.

Your replies usually include some childish insult because you don't like people who hold opposite views to your own. I'm not familiar with the exact phrase but aren't your sort called internet warriors or trolls?
--- old post above --- --- new post below ---
Evidence? Where have I used "childish insults" ? Provide the links.

You, on the other hand, have incorrectly stated I "drive a BWM", I "have an expense account", I "want to drive at high speed regardless of others" - none of which are correct.


Agreed. Take note of your own behaviour.

I've posted almost 1000 times over an 8 year period on these boards. You are the only poster who has questioned my behaviour in that time. I've never been 'warned' or 'censored' by the mods.

I've had lengthy exchanges with many posters, some of whom I've fundamentally disagreed with who have never called out my behaviour as wrong or unreasonable. Yet you seem to expect everyone to view the world as you do, and anyone who doesn't is either attacking you or trolling you.

Lastly - I notice you've still not provided facts to among other things your suggestion for a Bournemouth to Bath line. I've called out why I don't think it's viable (£ 1,000m cost, no major towns en-route, questionable demand) whereas you've just said "it should be done".
 

deltic

Established Member
Joined
8 Feb 2010
Messages
3,713
The Benefits Case figures on the Highways Agency website show the largest benefits being towards time savings of over 5 minutes. So I respectfully suggest your "personal experience" is not typical.

The figures are on the HA's website.


Nothing to apologise for - your personal experience is not typical of the BCR which the project has.


.

Without wishing to get drawn into a personal dispute one should be careful in interpreting the benefit figures by time of delay. For this scheme as you rightly say the biggest benefits arise from reducing journey time delays by more than 5 minutes but that does not mean that such long delays are more common than shorter delays.

Looking at the numbers and making assumptions on average delay in each time block I would suggest that if you do experience a delay (and a high proportion of journeys will not) then your chance of that delay being 0-2 mins is 57%, 2-5 mins 17% and over 5 minutes 26%. Hence it is also right to say that the majority of even delayed journeys are delayed by less than 5 minutes.
 

tbtc

Veteran Member
Joined
16 Dec 2008
Messages
18,051
Location
Reston City Centre
Most of these proposals seem to involve grandiose stuff about “the bigger picture” and “strategic importance” on a “national” scale, but it’s maybe worth noting that the two much hyped “successes” since privatisation (Alloa and Ebbw Vale) were simple short spurs off main lines.

Ebbw Vale wasn’t built on the proviso of a diversionary route between Cardiff and Hereford. There’s no pretence that ScotRail will be running Glasgow – Aberdeen services through Alloa and Fife instead of Perth. They are just simple branches, termini. Ebbw Vale doesn’t provide “resilience”, it simply provides a direct link from a town to the nearest large city, a reasonable distance for commuters.

I’m all in favour of new lines (whether they happen to follow a line on a 1960s map or not). If I were looking at the success of Ebbw Vale then I’d be considering similar shortish branches required to allow places like Portishead/ Tavistock/ Ashington/ Washington a heavy rail link to the nearest large city. That’s the kind of market that rail works best at.

Whilst I don’t know Middlewich in Cheshire, it fits the mould well (commuter belt town close enough to a large city to justify a branch). No deluded stuff about it being a useful diversionary line when the WCML is closed or requirements for it to be a 125mph alignment, just a common or garden line in the Manchester “travel to work” area.

In comparison, Okehampton to Tavistock/ Workington to Penrith/ Bakewell to Matlock/ Ripon to Northallerton/ Carmarthen to Aberystwyth/ Skipton to Colne etc have relatively flimsy cases (however scenic some of them may be). That’s why their proponents always have to throw in some optimistic blue sky thinking about “resilience” and “strategy” to distract from the weakness of the central case.

If that isn’t enough, chuck in something sensationalist about the unfairness of the closure, talk about how the passenger estimates will have gone up since the last survey was carried out five years ago to give the impression that the BCR will have improved (whilst carefully ignoring the fact that the costs for Network Rail to do anything seem to have gone up slightly in the intervening period too)...

...you know how it works!

(interesting that places like Washington don’t seem to be mentioned on these kind of threads – who wants to do something as functional as connect a large town to the nearest big city when there are daydreams to be dreamed about quaint little branches through relatively empty parts of the country like Dartmoor/ Lake District/ Peak District/ west Wales?)

Reinstated lines that would provide alternative routes and capacity between major population centres include:

-The former Midland line through the Peak District, effectively linking the East Midlands with the Stockport/Manchester conurbation.

-The Woodhead route from Sheffield to Manchester.

40907

If you want to improve service from the East Midlands to Greater Manchester (beyond the current hourly service from Nottingham/ Chesterfield to Stockport/ Manchester which reverses at Sheffield) then the simple option is to run via the chord at Dore (rather than building a railway to a slow alignment through Bakewell).

If you want to increase capacity between Sheffield and Manchester then the Hope Valley line currently sees two or three DMUs per hour which are two/ three/ four coaches long – there’s plenty of scope to increase the length of these without needing to build a new route (that wouldn’t serve Sheffield Midland station).

Since the only intermediate stop on most Hope Valley services is Stockport (which can obviously accommodate eleven coach 390s), there are no infrastructure enhancements required to extend every “fast” service from Sheffield to Manchester to six coaches.

Maybe, when the freight dwindles away further, there’ll be more paths through the Hope Valley too?

Woodhead is a solution in need of a problem. It’d serve Sheffield Victoria (rather than Midland, so wouldn’t connect to other services), it’d serve nowhere large in between, it’d get stuck behind the frequently stopping services from Manchester to Hadfield.

The trouble is that on here, people don’t want to talk about straightforward enhancements (like putting extra coaches onto existing services), there’s an obsession with “how can we attempt to justify re-opening some old line”.

I agree in part with your comment on orbital motorways but linking medium sized urban centres by rail would cover a small percentage of those trips and as there are a few million a day of them, as I said just attracting 5% to rail would mean a heavily used rail line.

The problem with Watford-St Albans, Bedford to Bleatchly and to a lessor extent the old Stockport to Stalybridge services is that they are infrequent, stop at every little hamlet on the way and dont provide very good connections with main line services. From memory the old Stockport - Stalybridge line was reasonably well used with people connecting at both stations on to longer distance services but not for local trips.

London overground shows what can be done with high frequency services and integrated ticketing - interested to know what percentage of trips on this line interchange with other routes and modes.

I like the idea, I’m just not sure where the major demand is going to be. Whilst roads can cater for thousands of different journeys (a hundred cars passing under a motorway bridge may all have different start points and destinations), heavy rail needs volume to work.

A lot of that road traffic may be pretty local (since roads like the M60 are essentially a by-pass to avoid places like central Stockport), or may be long distance (which may be hard for rail to compete on, I don’t know.

London’s Overgound works because the predominantly “zone two”/ “zone three” kind of places that it serves are busy enough centres in their own right (Stratford, Camden etc) and there’s enough demand to get to them (rather than just into the “city centre”). I agree that it’d be fascinating to know how many of those people are doing longer distance journeys versus local hops.

If Metrolink haven’t attempted new orbital links like Bury – Bolton or Manchester Airport – Stockport then I’m not convinced that there’s going to be enough of a market for heavy rail.

Currently the frequency of services in the South East that don’t serve “London” (i.e. Zone 1-6) are fairly poor. Maybe if EW proves a big market exists from Oxford to Milton Keynes there’ll be more scope to make a case for other “orbital” arrangements.

A business case cannot be built on a quarry sending wagon loads and a wish to avoid Leeds railway station.

Agreed

I'm of the view that the existing subsidy is already massive and having suffered years of under investment that the concentration should be mainly on the existing network

100%.

There’s enough of a network to be concentrating on, there’s plenty more passengers we could attract on high volume flows suited to mass transportation like rail – without worrying about every quaint rural backwater that lost a service fifty years ago.

While Ripon is beginning to sound like an alternate route to Dawlish, substitute Okehampton for Ripon, yes the ECML must have a relief route and yes it must go through Ripon to justify a train service to our insignificant little town (sorry City).

If the ECML does need a relief route at some point then lets consider the best option for that rather than what's best for Ripon.

Good points.

IF there’s to be a relief route for the ECML then I’d focus resources north of Darlington (rather than the already generally flat/ straight/ four track/ 125mph line south of Darlington). You could save some time if you avoided the existing curves in County Durham, you could serve Washington, you could free up space on the existing line to give Chester le Street a regular service...

If a relief route south of Darlington is required then why not build a High Speed alignment broadly parallel to the existing line which could speed up thousands of journeys a day (rather than the “it’d be handy once in a blue moon” diversionary argument for building a new line through Ripon). You could build the alternative route that Virgin were proposing around fifteen years ago to avoid Doncaster (and its flat junctions) giving a faster journey from London to Leeds/ Newcastle/ Edinburgh etc – a new alignment through a fairly flat part of the country.

Same goes for a Dawlish Avoiding Line (build your new route to a new alignment to give a faster journey to thousands of passengers a day, rather than building a slow route on a twistier alignment through small places like Okehampton).

But then, I’m not hidebound by trying to come up an answer that was on a 1960s map... :lol:

Ripon is not an insignificant little town, IT IS A CITY with lots of history that visitors find attractive. It is where Lewis Carroll wrote Alice in Wonderland, where the poet Wilfred Owen lived until he was killed in the Great War, has two army barracks that at one time had 20,000 troops.

The tradition of the Hornblower is performed every night at 9pm in the Market Place to Set the Watch

The population of Ripon is 17,000

I think that the second quote is more pertinent than the first (and even seventeen thousand is more than I’ve seen it quoted on some websites)...

Yes, famous people used to live there and there used to be a lot of soldiers there, but these things are pretty irrelevant when assessing the case for a railway in the twenty first century.

The number of people living there is what matters; seventeen thousand isn’t a huge number.

You’ve taken a line that has a potentially good case (a place on the outskirts of the Leeds “travel to work” commuter belt) but you’ve weakened the argument by throwing in a lot of “wibble” (to use a term popular on this forum) – forget about Wilfred Owen/ aspirations for TPE services/ Dr Beeching/ Lewis Carroll/ ECML diversions/ Hornblowers, direct services to Edinburgh or Liverpool / historic populations of barracks or a station at Lightwater Valley...

...focus on the straightforward (Ripon has a good commercial bus service to Harrogate/ Leeds which shows that there’s demand... Harrogate has similar demographics/ tourists and will get four trains an hour to Leeds before long... there’ll be regular services from Leeds to Harrogate that terminate there – so that there’s a practical service to run through to Ripon without needing more paths at any bottlenecks...).

It ought to be a simple enough case to make, but you’ve made it quite convoluted by adding a load of smoke and mirrors.

in an online poll conducted by the local newspaper recently, 96.8% of respondents (460) wanted the railway back. That is a very good representative sample

A very good representative sample because it tells you what you want to believe? :lol:

Under five hundred people bothered to respond... that’s enough to fill one three coach train a day... is that your most compelling evidence?

If we based everything on local newspaper opinion polls, petitions and heavily loaded surveys, we’d never get anything done. They should really be scrapped for giving false hope to naive people.

the level of crayonista wibbling in this thread is outrageous! i love these threads. Cheers me up no end. Thanks!

Agreed – it’s quite entertaining to see some of the desperate excuses on here... such creativity and optimism (without having to worry about pesky facts).

It would have to be considered in the business case but it has almost zero value as a diversion route.
Diversion routes generally aren't worth it. Cheaper to bustitute.

1) Use as a diversionary route is not a firm foundation for a business case. Whilst beloved by spotters the TOC's view them somewhat differently

True.

Generally massively overstated by enthusiasts, rather than being seen as a marginal little bonus that is never going to be enough to tip the scales.

I agree reopening to Ripon probably has a stronger case than most

With four trains an hour from Leeds to Harrogate in the new Northern franchise (but only one continuing all the way to York), there’s certainly scope for a branch to Ripon.

It’s roughly thirty miles from Leeds, so should be decent enough commuter distance (albeit with a population of roughly fifteen thousand).

The trouble is that the idea of a spur from Harrogate to Leeds gets dressed up with a load of irrelevance (conspiracy stuff about Beeching) and crayonista aspiration (oh, it’s going to be a 125mph electrified railway from Harrogate to Northallerton, with regular services to Edinburgh/ Liverpool/ London? :roll:)...

Trying to give the impression that it’d be better for long distance services to run via Ripon instead of York (despite York’s significantly larger population/ connections etc) doesn’t help either. I think it’d have a better case if we focussed on the actual day-to-day aspects.

Same goes for alternatives to Dawlish. The simple idea of a short branch to Tavistock (which had five commercial buses per hour to Plymouth last time I checked – i.e. a decent market) seems perfectly sensible. However, enthusiasts can’t accept something so straightforward so it gets dressed up as “WE COULD REINTRODUCE DIRECT SERVICES FROM WATERLOO TO PLYMOUTH VIA OKEHAMPTON LIKE THE GOOD OLD DAYS” (as well as the typically overstated diversionary benefits).

See also the SELRAP claims about running fast trains from Hull to Liverpool via Skipton and Colne... which is my favourite bit of delusion!

You also continue to ignore the level of use that the current East-West links receive - both Bedford - Bletchley and Peterborough - Leicester are pretty much hourly services using 2 car DMUs - rarely if ever are these full to capacity aside the odd peak hour journey - to pretend or believe there is demand for more East West links in parallel to these is ignoring the reality of what is used now

This needs repeating.

If the direct service from Birmingham/ Leicester to Peterborough/ Cambridge/ Stansted can only justify a two/three coach DMU once an hour then Northampton to Peterborough is going to be a fraction of that (i.e. not worth building).

I thought that but I see that national express run up to 5 coaches an hour between the two and 75 a day in total each way

Usually as part of a longer distance route though.

So if you were running a coach from Birmingham to Gatwick, the logical route takes you right past Heathrow (M40, M25, M23). On that basis you'd not run a coach to Heathrow and another to Gatwick, instead you'd run it between the two, though the number of people travelling between the airports is marginal.

Someone else tried to claim there was a traffic flow between Luton Airport and Stansted Airport on the basis a couple of NX routes run between them, whilst overlooking the fact that the routes then continued beyond Luton to places like Oxford or Birmingham - so were actually the logical route to take to get to Stansted.

What demand is there for a Heathrow - Gatwick link?

People tend not to travel between airports

Agreed. I think that the “Airport to Airport” argument is massively overegged by enthusiasts (better not call them “Spotters”... :oops:) – e.g. the suggestion of using Crossrail for Heathrow to Stansted.

National Express run a number of coaches between Airports (e.g. I travelled on one of their services from Sheffield to East Midlands Airport a couple of years ago – the coach was continuing beyond EMA to serve both Heathrow and Gatwick) but that’s because NatEx have segmented the market – they know that a coach from Yorkshire to (just) Heathrow won’t be profitable so tag it on to serve other Airports too – they know that the leisure market is more bothered about a “direct” service to an Airport than a “fast” service to an Airport.

The only direct train services I can think of between two Airports are the Thameslink one from Gatwick to Luton and the XC one from Birmingham to Southampton(?).

Company cars are a tax perk - in other words, other taxpayers are subsidising you. It's not difficult to understand

If it's that bad hand it back, but you won't of course because it's a nice tax perk

Any chance you could set up a thread entitled “Why I Have A Chip On My Shoulder About Company Cars” so that you don’t feel the need to try the same old arguments on unrelated threads? ;)

A lot of the sensational successes in Scotland and Wales have been up and running for a lot longer than three months and are still proving vital to their communities.

BCRs are being made to look increasingly useless in view of the sensational success of the reopenings in Scotland and Wales

Presumably you aren’t both talking about every reopening - I rarely see enthusiasts boasting about figures for Cardiff Airport or Larkhall...

...whilst I don’t have figures for each new route, I certainly remember that the Newcraighall branch underperformed against expected passenger numbers as I had family living locally...

...let me guess, you’re only talking about the two outliers of Alloa and Ebbw Vale?

Both of those were massively underestimated for specific reasons that I presume you both know about?

Or are you just deciding that BCRs are “useless” because they don’t give you the answer that you want?

(nice weasel words about being “vital to communities”, since the “vitality” is something unquantifiable that you can always chuck in if the passenger numbers don’t stack up)

Why do you participate on this forum when your attitude is so anti-rail?

I do so love it when people get accused of being “anti-rail” just because they don’t share the same happy clapper enthusiasm that all of the Crayonistas have...

Sorry if some of us temper our enthusiasm with inconvenient things like facts and costs ;)

That understates Marples' conflict of interest. He owned a road construction company. This was raised at the time and he agreed to give up his directorship - he passed it to his wife.

If there was such a big conspiracy with Marples then why did Labour not promise to re-open a few lines? Not every alignment had been put permanently out of use by the time they came to power in 1964. The previous incoming Labour Government had achieved huge things in only five years, so surely the mid ‘60s one could have reinstated some railway lines?

Oh, wait, they actually closed more (under Castle), which suggests that the closures were more than just a collusion between two blokes (however simple a story that is to believe).

An interesting point but let us examine the reality.

The 'experts' predicted that Ebbw Vale Parkway would attract up to 50,000 passengers annually, after five years. The reality has been somewhat at odds with this forecast and the figures put forward have proved to be hopelessly wide of the mark

It should also be noted that the original estimate of passenger numbers also included services to the important City of Newport, with a population of about 150,000

Yes, let us examine the reality. The original estimated passenger figures included services to Newport...

...in fact, they only included services to Newport. The fact that Cardiff (big city, capital, WAG etc) is more popular than Newport shouldn’t be surprising.

Werent the forecasts for Ebbw Vale line based on the assumption that services would run into Newport - whereas running them into Cardiff made it a far more attractive

Yes, but don’t upset the revisionists with facts.

Figures for Ebbw Vale were based on a service to just Newport.

A combination of the steel works closing (meaning thousands of people now had to travel out of Ebbw Vale for work) and running the direct service to Cardiff instead meant that the passenger numbers were significantly higher.

That doesn’t call BCRs into question, it just means that we need to be careful what questions we ask BCRs to assess. Hardly surprising that Cardiff was a much more popular destination than Newport. Also, the BCR presumably wouldn’t have assumed the closure of the Steelworks (and the knock on increase in commuting from Ebbw Vale from people who suddenly needed to leave the town to find employment).

You could get half hourly from Harrogate to Ripon with a very lightweight infrastructure - extending to Northallerton will, at least, double the cost of the project. For every little gain.

Could Harrogate to Ripon sustain a half hourly service with a single track branch? It probably doesn’t need anything spectacular.

There is a 2012? EU directive that greenhouse gases emissions from transport must be reduced by 60% by 2050. To reach that target we must start yesterday on reinstating railways.

A DMU is only more efficient than private transport above a certain number of passengers (I think Bald Rick suggested it was around a hundred?). In which case should we start cutting lightly loaded train services?

If there are fewer than fifty people on board a DMU then would it not make more sense to provide a bus/ coach instead? That is, if you are focussing on reducing the emissions (rather than grasping for more excuses to reopen old railway lines through relatively empty parts of the country)?
 

HowardGWR

Established Member
Joined
30 Jan 2013
Messages
4,981
@tbtc
Washington was dealt with in detail, either earlier in the thread, or in a very similar parallel thread about reopenings. I don't know what mods did with that one. Some very interesting and excellent suggestions were made. If you use the search function, they should come up.

Just one other thing; you wanted to be quite condemnatory about the amateur points and hyperbole of other posters (and you are correct there, sadly), so I hope you won't mind me pointing out that your answer to the quote of the story about Marples and his wife was an irrelevant whataboutery concerning the fact that Labour was as bad if not worse at closing lines, about which you are of course correct. The point did not address the quote you extracted, which was only about Marples' dubious behaviour.
 

Altnabreac

Established Member
Joined
20 Apr 2013
Messages
2,424
Location
Salt & Vinegar
Presumably you aren’t both talking about every reopening - I rarely see enthusiasts boasting about figures for Cardiff Airport or Larkhall...

...whilst I don’t have figures for each new route, I certainly remember that the Newcraighall branch underperformed against expected passenger numbers as I had family living locally...

...let me guess, you’re only talking about the two outliers of Alloa and Ebbw Vale?

Both of those were massively underestimated for specific reasons that I presume you both know about?

Or are you just deciding that BCRs are “useless” because they don’t give you the answer that you want?

(nice weasel words about being “vital to communities”, since the “vitality” is something unquantifiable that you can always chuck in if the passenger numbers don’t stack up)

I agree with a lot of your post especially the bit about concentrating on small scale reopenings that link decent sized towns with good commuter markets. That certainly sounds similar to my Golden Rules... ;)

The Larkhall re-opening you mention above is an interesting case. It was by no means an unsuccessful scheme. Traffic figures have exceeded expectations reasonably well overall (but not by orders of magnitude) and within that there have been some stations with underestimates (Merryton), others with overestimates (Larkhall) and a third where the numbers initally underperformed but then picked up strongly (Chatelherault).

I can thoroughly recommend reading the Project Appraisal Report published earlier this year:
http://www.transportscotland.gov.uk...ion - Final Report - Final PDF - May 2015.pdf

It shows the inherent difficulty in forecasting demand and how initial estimates based on existing travel data can be undermined (both positively and negatively) by relatively small changes in things like new housing demand, availability and ease of parking, abstraction from existing rail stations etc.

Chatelherault demonstrates this exact issue with initial underperformance owing to lack of new housing followed by subsequent overperformance as more houses were built.

Re-opening new lines will never be an exact science. But fundamentally you need to have a clear idea of what demand you are trying to meet. Ripon - Leeds is probably a decent market. I give it a score of around 4 out of 6.

Altnabreac's golden rules of a successful rail reopening:
  1. Population of 10,000+
  2. 60 minutes (75 at a push) journey time of a major employment centre.
  3. Extant or mainly unobstructed trackbed
  4. Ability to extend an existing service so more terminal capacity is not required
  5. Regeneration potential to justify public investment
  6. Housing growth demand to create both demand and developer contributions.

  1. 17,000 is not bad but higher is better, especially as no intermediate population or stations.:)
  2. Probably looking at 50-55 mins to Leeds with some demand to Harrogate as well.:)
  3. Fair amount of trackbed available but at least 2 diversions needed en route, city centre station difficult to arrange and probably 5-10 new structures needed assuming that no level crossings will be permitted.:cry:
  4. With a 4tph Leeds - Harrogate service coming this looks possible.:D
  5. No - Ripon already a prosperous little city.:cry:
  6. Some - New housing growth is planned but questions over scale and there doesn't seem to be a willingness by NYCC to leverage developer contributions to the capital costs. May help demand though.:)

I suspect the issue holding Ripon back is going to be the high capital costs. Arup in 2006 were quoting £46m for a BCR of 1.3 but I don't think that included any optimism bias. It also had some optimistic assumptions about level crossings, land acquisition, acommodation crossings etc. Add in construction inflation as well and you end up with more like ATOCs £100M in 2009 for a BCR of 0.6.

Deltic08 prefers to quote a BCR of 4.3 (exc capital costs) and potential capital costs of £36M but frankly I think £80m would be a bargain price for this scheme and I just don't see it ticking enough central government boxes to achieve that level of funding. NYCC don't have the money and are unlikely even to fund another study at present based on their latest minutes.

It's a sad truth that if the line were open to Ripon as a branch from Harrogate it would probably perform reasonable well. Getting it to re-open however is tricky at present, though a worthwhile aim to campaign for. North of Ripon is pie in the sky with no sort of viable business case whatsoever.
 
Last edited:

The Ham

Veteran Member
Joined
6 Jul 2012
Messages
12,021
Same goes for a Dawlish Avoiding Line (build your new route to a new alignment to give a faster journey to thousands of passengers a day, rather than building a slow route on a twistier alignment through small places like Okehampton).

But then, I’m not hidebound by trying to come up an answer that was on a 1960s map... :lol:

Although the problem with the DAL, is that, other than speeding things up a little it doesn't really provided much other benefits. As although it provides capacity, it can't be used because of bottlenecks elsewhere.

The main passenger (long distance) passenger flow on the Okehampton route ( assuming a Waterloo to Plymouth service) would likely be from places like Southampton, Salisbury, Portsmouth (possible Woking, but that maybe borderline depending on change times). The fact that it runs from Waterloo would just be due to convenience of routing. By providing more services it would attract more people to use trains between Exeter and Plymouth as well as making it possible to get to Exeter/Plymouth a lot more easily than it currently is from the wrong branch line.

I can see that the DAL would be useful, but at this time there isn't the numbers of long distance services (nor the capacity elsewhere to provide them) to justify it, as it would be possibly better to spend the money improving journey times elsewhere to achieve the same reduction.

Also the AT300's will reduce journey times by the same amount anyway so Plymouth should get some sub 3 hour journeys.
 

A0

On Moderation
Joined
19 Jan 2008
Messages
7,751
Just one other thing; you wanted to be quite condemnatory about the amateur points and hyperbole of other posters (and you are correct there, sadly), so I hope you won't mind me pointing out that your answer to the quote of the story about Marples and his wife was an irrelevant whataboutery concerning the fact that Labour was as bad if not worse at closing lines, about which you are of course correct. The point did not address the quote you extracted, which was only about Marples' dubious behaviour.

I don't think tbtc was being unreasonable in what he put - let's take another look:

If there was such a big conspiracy with Marples then why did Labour not promise to re-open a few lines? Not every alignment had been put permanently out of use by the time they came to power in 1964. The previous incoming Labour Government had achieved huge things in only five years, so surely the mid ‘60s one could have reinstated some railway lines?

This is perfectly fair. IF, and it's a big IF, the whole Marples forced the closures conspiracy is true, then let's look at some other facts:

- Beeching's appointment to BR wasn't until 1961.
- Beeching's report wasn't published until March 1963
- On 16th October 1964 Labour won the General Election.
- Beeching's second report was published in February 1965.

Now, if there is doubt about the integrity of Beeching's report (allegedly driven by Marples) then it is perfectly reasonable to ask why Labour didn't immediately shelve it when they came to power some 19 months later. Furthermore they allowed his second report to be published and then rejected its findings - they could have done exactly the same with the first report.

Oh, wait, they actually closed more (under Castle), which suggests that the closures were more than just a collusion between two blokes (however simple a story that is to believe).


And Mrs Castle wasn't Harold Wilson's first Transport Secretary - the first was Tom Fraser https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tom_Fraser who "Throughout his tenure as Minister, he authorised the closure 1,071 miles of railway lines, following the recommendations from the Beeching Report. However, he went further, and authorised the closure of lines that Beeching had considered worthy of retention"

So whilst it may be convenient to claim it was all down to Marples, the fact is more closures took place long after he'd ceased to be Transport Secretary and indeed closures took place which weren't even mooted in Beeching's report.

Incoming governments have, at various times, cancelled or dropped previous government's 'pet' projects. The Wilson government of 64-70 did - a good example being the cancellation of the BAC TSR2 project by Denis Healey - which happened in April 1965. If Beeching's report was so flawed and only done to enrich Marples, then why did it not get canned? It's a legitimate question.
 

HarleyDavidson

Established Member
Joined
23 Aug 2014
Messages
2,544
The problem I have with BCR is that it's for now, it doesn't consider the future and what the expansion plans are for formerly rail connected towns & villages.

Whilst in the short term, it may not be cost effective to reopen a line, but what's to say that in 5, 10 or more years time, more housing developments may have been planned and built and they may well consider the railway formation a perfect thing to build on.

That almost certainly kills a reopening off, yet with all of that extra housing & development comes the inevitable extra traffic, accidents and pollution.

Housing and any other large scale development must only be allowed to take place when the transport infrastructure is in place, not before, otherwise you could lose the ability to provide a good quality and sustainable transport system which reduces the number of cars, accidents and pollution.

The problem is that most councillors are easily influenced by remuneration from the so called influential people set whom a reopening may affect & will block such transport infrastructure improvements for short term political gain and they can't see any further than the end of their noses in most cases. They need to be reminded that we employ them, not the other way round.

This country is terribly short termist, it cannot seem to see or think very far into the future and what the consequences of it maybe. Yet later on when they say about it, the costs will have rocketed and the scheme shelved because of it, yet if they'd done it previously it would have been available for generations to come.
 
Last edited:

yorksrob

Veteran Member
Joined
6 Aug 2009
Messages
44,262
Location
Yorks
Having helped present the case to decision makers in the Treasury for £800m of public money to be invested in rail in the North, you can take it that I'm in favour of such investment. However I've seen nothing in the case presented here for the Ripon line that would convince any decision maker, let alone the Treasury that a penny should be invested. Which is of course why the campaign for reinstatement has got nowhere in 10 years, 20years, whatever. If afraid Deltic08 and his friends need to up their game when the competition for funds is fierce. Every possible hole in your case is going to examined in detail and challenged before a case is accepted and its no use just blustering and abusing people when they challenge your case. You have to win them over with persuasive arguments.

Apart from the fact that the business case for reinstatement is not particularly compelling, the reinstatement of a rural line serving one market town/cathedral city is just flying in the face of the current "Northern Powerhouse" (sorry) political agreement between the government/Treasury and the major councils that transport links between the North's major cities need investment to simulate economic growth.

This is pretty much what worries me about the Northern Powerhouse situation.

The PTE's have done an excellent job at promoting urban transport over the past forty years, however the towns outside these areas have suffered and the railway has been marginalised. The area seems to suffer from scarce services and over-priced fares. The market between York and Hull is one instance of this.

I hope the Northern Powerhouse starts to address this issue rather than exacerbate it, and I believe modest infrastructure investments sich as the line to Ripon should be a part of this, even if we have to make do with a basic single track branch.
--- old post above --- --- new post below ---
I'm of the view that the existing subsidy is already massive and having suffered years of under investment that the concentration should be mainly on the existing network.

While Ripon is beginning to sound like an alternate route to Dawlish, substitute Okehampton for Ripon, yes the ECML must have a relief route and yes it must go through Ripon to justify a train service to our insignificant little town (sorry City).

If the ECML does need a relief route at some point then lets consider the best option for that rather than what's best for Ripon.

To be fair, I think the Okehampton route has a much better case for reopening in its entirety. It will directly improve access to Tavistock, Okehampton and Crediton as well as the national park and possibly acting as a railhead for places such as Launceston.

Yes, if possible I feel that completing the line between Harrogate and Northallerton would be preferable, but given the ECML is already quadruple track at this point I feel the case isn't as pressing.
 

exile

Established Member
Joined
16 Jul 2011
Messages
1,342
A DMU is only more efficient than private transport above a certain number of passengers (I think Bald Rick suggested it was around a hundred?). In which case should we start cutting lightly loaded train services?

If there are fewer than fifty people on board a DMU then would it not make more sense to provide a bus/ coach instead? That is, if you are focussing on reducing the emissions (rather than grasping for more excuses to reopen old railway lines through relatively empty parts of the country)?

Which suggests a lot of lines need to close, given that only London area and inter city franchises achieve the magic 100. For Northern it's about 50....
 

yorksrob

Veteran Member
Joined
6 Aug 2009
Messages
44,262
Location
Yorks
Although the problem with the DAL, is that, other than speeding things up a little it doesn't really provided much other benefits. As although it provides capacity, it can't be used because of bottlenecks elsewhere.

The main passenger (long distance) passenger flow on the Okehampton route ( assuming a Waterloo to Plymouth service) would likely be from places like Southampton, Salisbury, Portsmouth (possible Woking, but that maybe borderline depending on change times). The fact that it runs from Waterloo would just be due to convenience of routing. By providing more services it would attract more people to use trains between Exeter and Plymouth as well as making it possible to get to Exeter/Plymouth a lot more easily than it currently is from the wrong branch line.

I can see that the DAL would be useful, but at this time there isn't the numbers of long distance services (nor the capacity elsewhere to provide them) to justify it, as it would be possibly better to spend the money improving journey times elsewhere to achieve the same reduction.

Also the AT300's will reduce journey times by the same amount anyway so Plymouth should get some sub 3 hour journeys.

Yes exactly. I'm always amused by the argument that five minutes off of a journey is likely to be worth billions and billions of pounds worth of infrastructure. One wonders what people are going to do in that extra five minutes. Write a mini-novella or design an app perhaps.

In reality those extra five minutes will be of little value to the majority, except perhaps for some with a tight connection.

Linking towns with inadequate public transport to the rail network would be a better use of money.
 

HowardGWR

Established Member
Joined
30 Jan 2013
Messages
4,981
I don't think tbtc was being unreasonable in what he put - let's take another look:

If there was such a big conspiracy with Marples then why did Labour not promise to re-open a few lines? Not every alignment had been put permanently out of use by the time they came to power in 1964. The previous incoming Labour Government had achieved huge things in only five years, so surely the mid ‘60s one could have reinstated some railway lines?

This is perfectly fair. IF, and it's a big IF, the whole Marples forced the closures conspiracy is true, then let's look at some other facts:

- Beeching's appointment to BR wasn't until 1961.
- Beeching's report wasn't published until March 1963
- On 16th October 1964 Labour won the General Election.
- Beeching's second report was published in February 1965.

Now, if there is doubt about the integrity of Beeching's report (allegedly driven by Marples) then it is perfectly reasonable to ask why Labour didn't immediately shelve it when they came to power some 19 months later. Furthermore they allowed his second report to be published and then rejected its findings - they could have done exactly the same with the first report.

Oh, wait, they actually closed more (under Castle), which suggests that the closures were more than just a collusion between two blokes (however simple a story that is to believe).


And Mrs Castle wasn't Harold Wilson's first Transport Secretary - the first was Tom Fraser https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tom_Fraser who "Throughout his tenure as Minister, he authorised the closure 1,071 miles of railway lines, following the recommendations from the Beeching Report. However, he went further, and authorised the closure of lines that Beeching had considered worthy of retention"

So whilst it may be convenient to claim it was all down to Marples, the fact is more closures took place long after he'd ceased to be Transport Secretary and indeed closures took place which weren't even mooted in Beeching's report.

Incoming governments have, at various times, cancelled or dropped previous government's 'pet' projects. The Wilson government of 64-70 did - a good example being the cancellation of the BAC TSR2 project by Denis Healey - which happened in April 1965. If Beeching's report was so flawed and only done to enrich Marples, then why did it not get canned? It's a legitimate question.

Thanks for that, with the content of which, I totally agree. However, you missed the point of my post to @tbtc. He only quoted...... no, please go back to @tbtc's bit where he quoted the other poster, and you will see what I mean.


If not, too bad I suppose.:D
 

yorksrob

Veteran Member
Joined
6 Aug 2009
Messages
44,262
Location
Yorks
I don't think tbtc was being unreasonable in what he put - let's take another look:

If there was such a big conspiracy with Marples then why did Labour not promise to re-open a few lines? Not every alignment had been put permanently out of use by the time they came to power in 1964. The previous incoming Labour Government had achieved huge things in only five years, so surely the mid ‘60s one could have reinstated some railway lines?

This is perfectly fair. IF, and it's a big IF, the whole Marples forced the closures conspiracy is true, then let's look at some other facts:

- Beeching's appointment to BR wasn't until 1961.
- Beeching's report wasn't published until March 1963
- On 16th October 1964 Labour won the General Election.
- Beeching's second report was published in February 1965.

Now, if there is doubt about the integrity of Beeching's report (allegedly driven by Marples) then it is perfectly reasonable to ask why Labour didn't immediately shelve it when they came to power some 19 months later. Furthermore they allowed his second report to be published and then rejected its findings - they could have done exactly the same with the first report.

Oh, wait, they actually closed more (under Castle), which suggests that the closures were more than just a collusion between two blokes (however simple a story that is to believe).


And Mrs Castle wasn't Harold Wilson's first Transport Secretary - the first was Tom Fraser https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tom_Fraser who "Throughout his tenure as Minister, he authorised the closure 1,071 miles of railway lines, following the recommendations from the Beeching Report. However, he went further, and authorised the closure of lines that Beeching had considered worthy of retention"

So whilst it may be convenient to claim it was all down to Marples, the fact is more closures took place long after he'd ceased to be Transport Secretary and indeed closures took place which weren't even mooted in Beeching's report.

Incoming governments have, at various times, cancelled or dropped previous government's 'pet' projects. The Wilson government of 64-70 did - a good example being the cancellation of the BAC TSR2 project by Denis Healey - which happened in April 1965. If Beeching's report was so flawed and only done to enrich Marples, then why did it not get canned? It's a legitimate question.

Could it be that Fraser just wasn't a very able transport minister.

tbtc is right to point out that more lines were closed under the Labour Government, but still manages to miss the point.

Do you not think that allowing subsidy for socially valuable routes and urban railways is a substantial reversal of the Beeching-Marples philosophy ?

As apologists for the Beeching era are correct to point out, hindsight is a wonderful thing. We can't expect people to have known the future, but I do think we can expect people to have taken due care and attention and considered things in a pragmatic way. There are indeed many routes that Castle closed and shouldn't have, however at least she introduced the legislation that allowed the network we know and love today, to survive. (most of the train journeys I make every day wouldn't be possible without those pieces of legislation).
 
Status
Not open for further replies.

Top