Exit strategy predictions

[JonathanP]

It's interesting to see that news article. For a long time I've had the feeling the British were taking the lockdown way more seriously than other nations.

Possibly it's the messaging being a little more patriotic ("Save the NHS"), and also the concept that going for a 2 hour walk alone is worse than going for a 1 hour walk alone. A lot of people seem to have extrapolated out of that that every second spend beyond your front door is somehow endangering lives. It's only from British people that I have heard the notion that not going for a short walk alone in open parkland is even more virtuous that taking the opportunity of your 1 hour exercise.

 

[StephenHunter]

What's the current German advice on use of public transport? I know face masks are mandatory.

 

[JonathanP]

There is mask requirement on all local transport, as far as I know not yet in long distance transport. Since it's not permitted to book accomodation for leisure purposes, or to have contact with people outside your household few people have a reason to travel long distance anyway.

There was never any specific restriction on using public transport, although during the lockdown there were few valid reasons to do so. I was pretty surprised that the "public transport is only for essential workers" message was pushed so strongly in the UK, when there was no actual restriction on non-essential workers going to work if they weren't able to work from home.

A handful of tourist attractions are already open and many more will open next week, so unless you think it makes sense to open a large zoo for sole benefit of people who live in walking distance of it then the use of public transport for leisure purposes is clearly on the menu.

 

[yorksrob]

There is mask requirement on all local transport, as far as I know not yet in long distance transport. Since it's not permitted to book accomodation for leisure purposes, or to have contact with people outside your household few people have a reason to travel long distance anyway.

There was never any specific restriction on using public transport, although during the lockdown there were few valid reasons to do so. I was pretty surprised that the "public transport is only for essential workers" message was pushed so strongly in the UK, when there was no actual restriction on non-essential workers going to work if they weren't able to work from home.

Yes, it was definitely a mixed message.

The Mayor of London wanted to make public transport for key workers only, but central government never did. Had I had to work in the office, I would have continued by public transport because as far as I'm concerned, the guidance is, you should go to work if you can't work from home (unless your work has been specifically closed), so the message that "public transport is for key workers only" has always been false.

 

[bramling]

It's interesting to see that news article. For a long time I've had the feeling the British were taking the lockdown way more seriously than other nations.

Possibly it's the messaging being a little more patriotic ("Save the NHS"), and also the concept that going for a 2 hour walk alone is worse than going for a 1 hour walk alone. A lot of people seem to have extrapolated out of that that every second spend beyond your front door is somehow endangering lives. It's only from British people that I have heard the notion that not going for a short walk alone in open parkland is even more virtuous that taking the opportunity of your 1 hour exercise.

I don’t think the issue is that going out for 61 minutes will destroy the NHS, but more that with a large proportion of the population having infinite amounts of time on their hands and Britain having a high population density compared to most other European countries public spaces would become filled up too much if everyone went out ad nauseam - especially with the fine weather seen throughout April.

There’s also the issue of how people would get there - public transport has been a no-no, and for various reasons it’s also been desirable to keep traffic off the roads as far as possible.

 

[Busaholic]

No.

I have seen loads of evidently over-70 people walking in the streets and parks of Sheffield, keeping the required distance, and to some extent going for walks at quieter times. To a lesser degree they are going shopping.

I haven’t any friends or relatives over-70, but if there are any members here in that group do let me know what you think.

If I were 70, and this is only 10 years away, I expect I might be thinking:

- if I have this virus, I certainly don’t want to give it anyone, but I have no symptoms
- if I catch this virus, I’ve got a higher chance of dying than most people
- however, this self-isolation is doing my head in. I might not even be able to access all this Skype and Zoom; or unfortunately I’ve nobody who cares for me anyway
- I really need to get out, so I’ll go out at times when I’m less likely to meet other people
- if I get it, these things happen

I'll answer this head-on, and I would agree with the general tenor of that, although I might phrase some of it differently. I'm not actually self-isolating, though, partly because I don't fit in to any of the categories of people who have had THE LETTER, so I'm not required to. Besides, I live in the centre of a town above an empty shop that I used to run, so local food shops are mere yards from my door, and despite some disability I don't require help to get and carry what I want. I also have an elderly dog who needs a modicum of exercise, so that's my exercise needs catered for. I'm happy to wear a mask but, frankly, I think the chances of my harbouring the virus without knowing about it are very slim, whereas my chances of catching it from somebody are much greater, for which a mask is no protection. Sadly, both my wife (who is otherwise self-isolating) and myself have had to make 50 mile round trips to hospital in the last two or three weeks, and will have to make many more over the next few weeks, for treatment for ongoing medical conditions. Mine are such that they are paused, but hers are much more urgent.

 

[MDB1images]

It is true that many businesses have shut down completely when this isn't entirely necessary. I've had messages from garages this week saying that they're re-opening, but you have to wonder why they closed in the first place. Yes, they probably needed to change a few things around, but there is plenty of space in a workshop (there has to be), so it seems likely that the complete closures were a result of panic, rather than logical, thought-through decisions.

On my way to work when lockdown started I noticed a Garage open but the staff just sitting around as they literally had no business.l(roads was deserted).
As the traffic has started to pick up since around Wednesday last week I noticed it was open again on Saturday so maybe got some business to attract again.

 

[Bantamzen]

Well considering spain and italy had much harsh lockdowns People in the UK shouldnt be complaining. If we locked down earlier and locked down harsher, less people would have died.

The more people who break and resist, the longer lockdown continues. Thats reality. People need to get on best they can till the review is done and we know what happens next.

Covid in terms of deaths is worst globally than swine flu was! No media outlets seem to be reporting about that funnily enough.

The best scenario is social distancing continuing till september/october then we can actually return to a normal setting. Till this is only the beginning in terms of social distancing. Lockdown may end but the fight against covid is a long term fight.

People need to be thinking about the health of their families and wider population first and formost before themselves.

Their are wide resources available to those struggling with mental health. They are exempted from the 1 exercise a day rule already. Personally I’am already using those resources and Iam managing fine but obviously everyone is different in terms of mental health.

No, people need to stop treating other people as risks and start to understand that many people's livelihoods, or in other words how they look after their families, are at risk & that they cannot lockdown for any length of time without serious consequence. Thankfully the government seem now to be prepared to step back from the "stop killing everyone" mantra and start moving towards a more pragmatic position.

On mental health there are not wide resources. You may be able to make the most of what is available, but a great many people cannot & if everyone who is starting to suffer tried to access what is there those services would almost certainly be overwhelmed.

 

[HH]

I have to wonder if the lockdown has been as well-followed as opinion polls are telling us. Maybe people are giving themselves a wee whitewash when they answer the questions? There's an interesting snippet at BBC News today. When I read things like, "...my mum's friends have all been meeting up secretly for walks and they are in the at-risk category as well" and "Mum is in touch with this underground network of hairdressers who have been working from home", these sound like things that quite a few groups of people might indulge in and then rationalise that they don't really count.

 

[yorksrob]

I have to wonder if the lockdown has been as well-followed as opinion polls are telling us. Maybe people are giving themselves a wee whitewash when they answer the questions? There's an interesting snippet at BBC News today. When I read things like, "...my mum's friends have all been meeting up secretly for walks and they are in the at-risk category as well" and "Mum is in touch with this underground network of hairdressers who have been working from home", these sound like things that quite a few groups of people might indulge in and then rationalise that they don't really count.

A secret network of hairdressers. Could call it "MI snips".

"I'm 'ere all week. And probably longer".

 

[RT4038]

A secret network of hairdressers. Could call it "MI snips".

"I'm 'ere all week. And probably longer".

Hairdressing on the Black Market? They never thought of that as a story line in Foyle's War!

 

[chris11256]

I have to wonder if the lockdown has been as well-followed as opinion polls are telling us. Maybe people are giving themselves a wee whitewash when they answer the questions? There's an interesting snippet at BBC News today. When I read things like, "...my mum's friends have all been meeting up secretly for walks and they are in the at-risk category as well" and "Mum is in touch with this underground network of hairdressers who have been working from home", these sound like things that quite a few groups of people might indulge in and then rationalise that they don't really count.

I know what you mean. What I'm seeing daily in my local area doesn't reflect the opinion polls saying the majority are scared to go out. At any day this week my local parade of shops is as busy as it normally is(besides closed estate agents/hair dressers), parking is full, loads of people.


If papers are to be believed, this week will have no changes to lockdown and will roughly be a simple rollover until June(as long as new cases start significantly dropping). However apparently the messaging/slogan will change with people that can go to work being encouraged to do so, and those parents eligible to send their children to school being encouraged to do so. At this stage the plan is for the PM to reveal the plan on Sunday.

 

[HH]

Just been watching Andrew Marr. Wales is definitely looking at getting some children back to school on June 1st, but it seems targetted heavily at those in most need. It was also mentioned that face masks may need to be worn, "to persuade the public that it's safe to go out".

 

[philosopher]

I know what you mean. What I'm seeing daily in my local area doesn't reflect the opinion polls saying the majority are scared to go out. At any day this week my local parade of shops is as busy as it normally is(besides closed estate agents/hair dressers), parking is full, loads of people.

I reckon a lot of people are lying in the opinion polls, possibly as they want to appear to be doing the right thing even if they are not. I read one poll that said only 9% were resisting the lockdown. I reckon the majority of people are obeying it, but I suspect the true figure of those ignoring the lockdown is quite a bit higher then 9%.

 

[StephenHunter]

It's never not been safe to go out. It's more been a risk to hang around in close proximity with a lot of people.

 

[HH]

I reckon a lot of people are lying in the opinion polls, possibly as they want to appear to be doing the right thing even if they are not. I read one poll that said only 9% were resisting the lockdown. I reckon the majority of people are obeying it, but I suspect the true figure of those ignoring the lockdown is quite a bit higher then 9%.

I'm absolutely certain it is. I see dozens of work vans when I'm out, around half of which have two people sat next to each other. I'm sure a few are from the same household, but not many. Every time I see people in high-vis vests they are not properly socially distancing. I have seen several neighbours have a sneaky guest or two. My daughter tells me at their block of flats in London, there are regular parties at one flat. It seems to me that a lot of people have one area that they are willing to stretch - the 9% are like the party-goers, but I reckon there are a lot more who think, "If I just do X, what is the harm?".

 

[HH]

It's never not been safe to go out. It's more been a risk to hang around in close proximity with a lot of people.

What has that got to do with anything? Nobody is talking about people merely going out.

 

[yorkie]

I don’t think the issue is that going out for 61 minutes will destroy the NHS, but more that with a large proportion of the population having infinite amounts of time on their hands and Britain having a high population density compared to most other European countries public spaces would become filled up too much if everyone went out ad nauseam - especially with the fine weather seen throughout April.

Not this again! You have previously stated a far more sensible opinion on this:

Clearly some level of activity is a good thing. Walking and the like should be being encouraged as long as it isn’t in groups.

...Yes I agree exercise is a good thing, and indeed I've been attempting to get in some 7-mile walks where I can....

. If we locked down earlier and locked down harsher, less people would have died.

Imposing restrictions early enough would have avoided a lockdown. I strongly disagree with your suggestion to have a harsher lockdown. I think you completely misunderstand the situation to come out with something like that.

The more people who break and resist, the longer lockdown continues. Thats reality.

Not sure what you are suggesting but in the real world compliance was higher than expected and the campaign is now seen by many as potentially having been "too successful" as it may be difficult to get the economy going again.

The best scenario is social distancing continuing till september/october then we can actually return to a normal setting.

That seems wishful thinking!

Till this is only the beginning in terms of social distancing. Lockdown may end but the fight against covid is a long term fight.

I think you are contradicting yourself.

People need to be thinking about the health of their families and wider population first and formost before themselves.

I am thinking of the wider issues, such as mental health issues and whether we can have a viable economy in the future, which is essential for society.

Their are wide resources available to those struggling with mental health. They are exempted from the 1 exercise a day rule already.

There isn't actually such a "rule" anyway

Personally I’am already using those resources and Iam managing fine but obviously everyone is different in terms of mental health.

Many people are struggling.

No, people need to stop treating other people as risks and start to understand that many people's livelihoods, or in other words how they look after their families, are at risk & that they cannot lockdown for any length of time without serious consequence.....

Very much agreed.

It's never not been safe to go out. It's more been a risk to hang around in close proximity with a lot of people.

Very true. I know someone who lives near Hob Moor in York, it would take them hardly any time to get to this huge wide open space, but they are taking 'advice' literally and not going out of their house, which is causing them all sorts of other problems. I have not seen the specific advice they have been given but they think they cannot go outside except in their garden. It's absolutely the wrong move, but I am not sure how I can tell them. I don't think I can.

If it saves suicides, then yes.

Putting air quotes around staying sane rather cheapens the whole concept of mental health. Various mental health conditions debilitate tens of thousands of people a year, and ultimately lead to hundreds of suicides. We can't just start putting that back in air quotes because the media has something more exciting to talk about this month.

In any case it's pointless to compare it with a individual's personal risk of getting C19. For the vast majority of people under 60 the risk from that is really very small indeed, which is why all of the publicity focuses on their risk of spreading it to more vulnerable groups.

@Ianno87 @takno - good responses there; by far the biggest risk to myself and indeed much of the population is not Covid-19 itself (that's not to belittle the huge risk it does impose on some of the population) but all the other stuff, such as the mental health aspects of lockdowns and restrictions, and the huge threat to the livelihoods of many people that restrictions bring. I think that those people who call for tougher restrictions and try to belittle the impact of such restrictions are not seeing the bigger picture. As time goes on I do think more people will appreciate that we are very bad at judging "risks" and that we do need to re-evaluate some risks.

Edit: on the subject of mental health, see the following thread: https://www.railforums.co.uk/threads/covid-19-and-the-lockdown-effects-on-mental-health.204031/

 

[HH]

by far the biggest risk to myself... is not Covid-19... but all the other stuff, such as the mental health aspects...

That may be the case for you and some others (although I think you are spending an unhealthy amount of time worrying about it). Perhaps we should have a poll on the matter, because my mental health is fine. Just because I can't do a whole bunch of stuff I want to do, and I can only speak to people on video; even that I've had numerous medical appointments cancelled or delayed, hasn't driven me to even the shallows of despair. I wonder if it's a generational thing.

 

[scotrail158713]

That may be the case for you and some others (although I think you are spending an unhealthy amount of time worrying about it). Perhaps we should have a poll on the matter, because my mental health is fine. Just because I can't do a whole bunch of stuff I want to do, and I can only speak to people on video; even that I've had numerous medical appointments cancelled or delayed, hasn't driven me to even the shallows of despair. I wonder if it's a generational thing.

It’s probably more to do with how sociable we are as people. Some people thrive on social contact, whilst others can get by on their own alright. I probably fall in the latter group myself, so I’m not struggling just now. I appreciate it’s very difficult for other people though.
EDIT - I’ve just realised @Bletchleyite has made a similar point on the mental health thread

 

[HH]

EDIT - I’ve just realised @Bletchleyite has made a similar point on the mental health thread

I'm going to avoid that thread as I fear it will bring out the worst in me.

When I'm with other people then I'm very sociable, but I don't depend on other people to give my life meaning. I have to admit that I do not get at all why people are struggling after a few weeks of minor deprivation. It's just as well that the Great people of Britain aren't having to cope with life in many areas of the world.

 

[Bantamzen]

I'm going to avoid that thread as I fear it will bring out the worst in me.

When I'm with other people then I'm very sociable, but I don't depend on other people to give my life meaning. I have to admit that I do not get at all why people are struggling after a few weeks of minor deprivation. It's just as well that the Great people of Britain aren't having to cope with life in many areas of the world.

All I will say is that it doesn't matter what part of the world you live in, some people cope better with situations than others. Just because you are coping doesn't mean the next person is, or should.

 

[bramling]

I'm going to avoid that thread as I fear it will bring out the worst in me.

When I'm with other people then I'm very sociable, but I don't depend on other people to give my life meaning. I have to admit that I do not get at all why people are struggling after a few weeks of minor deprivation. It's just as well that the Great people of Britain aren't having to cope with life in many areas of the world.

I very much agree with the above.

Being sociable shouldn’t need to be seeing people face-to-face, there’s books to be read and for people who don’t have such things the internet provides a massive amount of material to inform and entertain (I realise there will be a subset of people who don’t have access to all this, but surely this is only a tiny minority these days?).

There really is plenty to keep occupied with, and if people are *really* struggling that much then one has to ask the question whether they’re looking hard enough.

I *can* understand problems developing where people develop worries about finances, their future or worrying about loved ones, but that doesn’t seem to be what we’re talking about here.

 

[bramling]

All I will say is that it doesn't matter what part of the world you live in, some people cope better with situations than others. Just because you are coping doesn't mean the next person is, or should.

It is a legitimate question why some people seem able to cope (or even relish) being alone, whereas others apparently can’t. Perhaps people brought up as only children have a slight advantage?

However, people *should* be able to cope alone as there’s times when everyone is going to be in that position, and *if* today’s younger people find it a major problem then one can’t shy away from wondering whether the education system is failing to equip people appropriately.

 

[Bantamzen]

I very much agree with the above.

Being sociable shouldn’t need to be seeing people face-to-face, there’s books to be read and for people who don’t have such things the internet provides a massive amount of material to inform and entertain (I realise there will be a subset of people who don’t have access to all this, but surely this is only a tiny minority these days?).

There really is plenty to keep occupied with, and if people are *really* struggling that much then one has to ask the question whether they’re looking hard enough.

I *can* understand problems developing where people develop worries about finances, their future or worrying about loved ones, but that doesn’t seem to be what we’re talking about here.

This discussion might be better in the mental health issues thread, however as I said previously different people handle situations differently. For some lockdown is a minor inconvenience, for others being physically separated from family and friends can be extremely difficult even without all the additional pressures of worrying about your work, your family, your finances.

Just because one person can cope doesn't mean everyone can.

 

[yorksrob]

I think the point is that whilst the lockdown has its place, it's no more sustainable in the medium term from a social wellbeing point of view, than it is from an economic one. It will not be sustainable until a vaccine comes along.

 

[Bantamzen]

I think the point is that whilst the lockdown has its place, it's no more sustainable in the medium term from a social wellbeing point of view, than it is from an economic one. It will not be sustainable until a vaccine comes along.

Exactly this, for many people a lockdown that lasts more than a few weeks is socially and economically unviable. This is a reality of our modern world, so we need to start thinking about how to move away from it, not cling to it in the hope of the magic bullet.

 

[Cowley]

This discussion might be better in the mental health issues thread

Yes it absolutely should be. Please use this thread:

COVID-19 and the lockdown effects on mental health.

One thing nobody who actually cared about people would do would be to just pick up "mental health" as a reason for wanting restrictions to be reduced. The fact is that healthcare for the causes of suicide are very poor in this country. Some people are able to access literally no support...

www.railforums.co.uk

for discussing mental health issues relating to the current situation, and if you do want to comment but don’t have a good understanding of the subject then take a moment to think before posting... Thanks.

 

[bramling]

I think the point is that whilst the lockdown has its place, it's no more sustainable in the medium term from a social wellbeing point of view, than it is from an economic one. It will not be sustainable until a vaccine comes along.

I don’t think anyone is seriously advocating having a lockdown which lasts until a vaccine which might not come at all (except those enjoying the novelty of a paid set of bank holidays).

The current lockdown is rapidly getting to the point of being pointless IMO, we’d now be better off trying to make a success of social distancing.

 

[Cowley]

The current lockdown is rapidly getting to the point of being pointless IMO, we’d now be better off trying to make a success of social distancing.

I don’t think that’s true at all. Where I am there’s only about twenty percent of the usual traffic on the roads (we live next to a main road), the city centre is almost empty, the lanes are far far quiter than normal and there’s still virtually no-one on public transport.
Maybe it’s different where you are but it’s clearly not the same everywhere.