Exit strategy predictions

[takno]

I think that is pretty definite going by recent opinion polls. However, people were split pretty evenly - around half would stay locked down whatever the policy, 40% would follow policy and 10% will carry on doing what they like. I'm not sure what that means for R (or whether opinions might change when faced with the actuality).

Gut instinct is that 10 or maybe 20% would be keen to remain indoors because they are from a vulnerable group or have a vulnerable group in the house. The rest of the 40% might start off reluctant to head out, but I think the signs of other people doing more normal things would tempt them quite quickly. Realistically it's no bad thing if people come out bit by bit, just so we can feel our way with stuff like social distancing on transport

 

[JonathanH]

Gut instinct is that 10 or maybe 20% would be keen to remain indoors because they are from a vulnerable group or have a vulnerable group in the house. The rest of the 40% might start off reluctant to head out, but I think the signs of other people doing more normal things would tempt them quite quickly. Realistically it's no bad thing if people come out bit by bit, just so we can feel our way with stuff like social distancing on transport

Or those in the 40% with a sense of responsibility feel that they should stay in even more because of the increased risk resulting from more people being about. Other people doing normal things is likely to be associated with more transmission of the virus so other people should offset this by staying in.

 

[takno]

Or those in the 40% with a sense of responsibility feel that they should stay in even more because of the increased risk resulting from more people being about. Other people doing normal things is likely to be associated with more transmission of the virus so other people should offset this by staying in.

You can call it a sense of responsibility if you like. I just don't see it being a particularly huge group. Maybe we're all just a bunch of terrible people

 

[yorksrob]

Maybe we're all just a bunch of terrible people

Or maybe we feel a responsibility to get the economy moving again, however tentatively.

 

[Bletchleyite]

Going by discussions on the radio today, the many experts think that the challenge will be getting a lot of people to leave their homes at all, rather than getting them to socially distance.

It does seem it's about a 50-50 split between people who aren't scared and thus will just release to the extent that the Government says they can (give or take the "Covidiots" who aren't distancing at all) and between people who are genuinely terrified, with almost no halfway house. Which is quite interesting - I hadn't realised that, I was chatting this evening with some people and it did seem about 50-50 out of them too.

 

[JonathanH]

Or maybe we feel a responsibility to get the economy moving again, however tentatively.

There is no need to leave your home to get the economy moving again - just send the money.

 

[Bletchleyite]

Or maybe we feel a responsibility to get the economy moving again, however tentatively.

Or we think the measures in place are sensible (unlike some countries that went a bit far only to achieve roughly the same curve-flattening) and are following them but see no need to take action in excess of them. The thing we did wrong was starting it too late, not how we did it once it started.

I can't quote a name for fairly obvious reasons, but someone I know who knows these things says that spread outside of the NHS and care homes (other than it slowly "burning through" households where it's already got in) is currently very near to zero. So even supermarkets aren't in his view much of a vector at all, and going for a walk/run is basically zero risk.

 

[yorksrob]

It does seem it's about a 50-50 split between people who aren't scared and thus will just release to the extent that the Government says they can (give or take the "Covidiots" who aren't distancing at all) and between people who are genuinely terrified, with almost no halfway house. Which is quite interesting - I hadn't realised that, I was chatting this evening with some people and it did seem about 50-50 out of them too.

I think even those planning to go out will be doing so rather gingerly !

 

[Bletchleyite]

There is no need to leave your home to get the economy moving again - just send the money.

Send it from where? You have to earn it to send it. And most jobs cannot be done from home, much as I'm a big advocate of home-working for office jobs specifically.

 

[yorksrob]

There is no need to leave your home to get the economy moving again - just send the money.

That's not a sustainable basis for an economy.

 

[Bletchleyite]

I think even those planning to go out will be doing so rather gingerly !

I won't be. I've been out - daily running/walking/cycling, shops when necessary, the odd takeaway and some volunteering distributing food parcels and furnishing the house of someone who was put in emergency housing last weekend (on which distancing was incredibly hard, though I wore a mask to protect him from any chance of me having it).

I'm genuinely struggling to be scared of it (though I won't decry people who are, I'm just talking about me). I think it is a combination of the risk for my age group being <1% and it not being very visible.

 

[yorksrob]

Or we think the measures in place are sensible (unlike some countries that went a bit far only to achieve roughly the same curve-flattening) and are following them but see no need to take action in excess of them. The thing we did wrong was starting it too late, not how we did it once it started.

Indeed.

 

[C J Snarzell]

I'm finding more & more people are taking up the opinion that they are prepared to return to normal and would much rather run the risk of getting the illness, than having to endure weeks of lockdown and endless social distancing measures.

I have lost two relatives to the disease who thankfully didn't suffer very long - I have however known many others who have had it & survived. The trend with the illness is a few days of feeling utterly crap - one of my friends compared it to flu like symptoms. One friend self isolated and recovered quite quickly - he said he is relieved he has had it & recovered from it, but now just wants to get back to normality.

My Nan who died many years ago, got married & had two children during the duration of the second World War. She used to tell me during that time, people still went about their business as normal - there was no way people could have stayed locked up for 6 years anyway!!!! People were required to work in industries to ensure the country was kept running.

The problem with Covid19 is that most people are genuinely fit & health - the concern is passing it on to a 'vulnerable' person and giving them a death sentence. The other concern is that some people may have underlining medical conditions they are not aware of & they fall under the 'umbrella' too. The illness has been branded the 'Silent Killer' a few times which is an appropriate title.

Going back to the exit strategy predictions - I do think the government are under mounting pressure now to do implement something. An interesting news report from the LGBT community last night, says they are experiencing severe issues with domestic violence, isolation, depression, etc, during the lockdown. The mental health crisis facing this country is becoming a huge problem now and I do think the government may have put all their eggs in one basket focusing on the virus.

CJ

 

[Bantamzen]

Or those in the 40% with a sense of responsibility feel that they should stay in even more because of the increased risk resulting from more people being about. Other people doing normal things is likely to be associated with more transmission of the virus so other people should offset this by staying in.

There is no need to leave your home to get the economy moving again - just send the money.

I am amazed nobody has thought of this before, just stay at home & send the money. Now all we need is to learn how to grow a magic money tree that we can shake whenever needed....

 

[chris11256]

As people have mentioned, the problem we have currently is that too many people have been utterly terrified by the government messaging.
If they want to gradually encourage people back to work as the lockdown eases, they are going to need to bin the stay home and save lives slogan.

i’m still not sure whether we will see any restrictions eased next week or whether it will just be a rollover until the end of May.

 

[Bletchleyite]

Going back to the exit strategy predictions - I do think the government are under mounting pressure now to do implement something. An interesting news report from the LGBT community last night, says they are experiencing severe issues with domestic violence, isolation, depression, etc, during the lockdown

It's also had its rainbow "nicked" which was a bit of a poor choice.

 

[HH]

Send it from where? You have to earn it to send it. And most jobs cannot be done from home, much as I'm a big advocate of home-working for office jobs specifically.

Roughly half of office jobs, which make up around 60% of all jobs, are being done from home (34.1% are in office sectors, such as financial services, information and support services. That % could be higher, because not everyone has been supplied with the kit necessary to work from home (presumably for cost reasons), and a large number have been furloughed, due to the slowdown in the economy. The accomodation & food services sector (5.3% of jobs) isn't going back to anything close to full employment any time soon, so quite a large % of active jobs could be done from home, during the next phases of activity. There's no doubt that it will be helpful if as many as possible can be done from home during this time.

 

[Bletchleyite]

As people have mentioned, the problem we have currently is that too many people have been utterly terrified by the government messaging.

if they want to gradually encourage people back to work as the lockdown eases, they are going to need to bin the stay home and save lives slogan.

I can't imagine that they won't change it - it only applies to a lockdown.

 

[HH]

As people have mentioned, the problem we have currently is that too many people have been utterly terrified by the government messaging.

Do you have any evidence that vast swathes of the population are "utterly terrified"? Or is it a teeny, little exaggeration?

 

[chris11256]

Do you have any evidence that vast swathes of the population are "utterly terrified"? Or is it a teeny, little exaggeration?

The numerous amounts of polling that have been done to show that people are very reluctant and to leave homes even if lockdown is eased.

also some conversations that we’ve had at work with parents who have threatened to permanently withdraw their children if we attempt to reopen before there is vaccine.

**edit I refer to school that I work at*

 

[Bletchleyite]

also some conversations that we’ve had at work with parents who have threatened to permanently withdraw their children if we attempt to reopen before there is vaccine.

If this is a school, they could choose to properly home-educate, but if they don't the law will get them eventually, though it would be poor publicity to prosecute early on (this question was actually asked on the press conference yesterday).

If it's a nursery I guess that's harder for you.

But I would let such people go. The decision is for the Government (by saying when you *can't* reopen) and for your risk assessment beyond that, not for the opinion of the playground babblers who are actually quite harmful to...almost everything, really.

 

[AM9]

Do you have any evidence that vast swathes of the population are "utterly terrified"? Or is it a teeny, little exaggeration?

One man's "too many people" is another's conveniently disprovable amount of people with which to pusue an argument for something.

 

[HH]

One man's "too many people" is another's conveniently disprovable amount of people with which to pusue an argument for something.

I think there's a point struggling to get out there, but I'm not quite sure what it is.

 

[HH]

The numerous amounts of polling that have been done to show that people are very reluctant and to leave homes even if lockdown is eased.

also some conversations that we’ve had at work with parents who have threatened to permanently withdraw their children if we attempt to reopen before there is vaccine.

Yes, we know that around half of people say that they are currently reluctant to leave their homes and yet 60% of people are going out to exercise and over 60% are going shopping (and some must be doing one and not the other). I would see that this is evidence that the numbers who are "utterly terrified" is somewhat smaller than half.

I get that some parents will be worried about their children, but I don't think your experience is typical.

 

[chris11256]

The point still stands though that government messaging needs to subtly change. I don’t have a link but if I can quote Beth Rigby from sky News ‘ The message so far has been sent home and live or go outside and die’

I’m sure the message will change, it’ll just be interesting to see how they actually do it and persuade people they can go back to work.

 

[Bletchleyite]

I get that some parents will be worried about their children, but I don't think your experience is typical.

Which is understandable but slightly ironic given that the risk to them is so low.

 

[HH]

The point still stands though that government messaging needs to subtly change. I don’t have a link but if I can quote Beth Rigby from sky News ‘ The message so far has been sent home and live or go outside and die’

I'd say that was typical media hyperbole. The message is "stay at home, protect the NHS, save lives". Save lives, not save your life. Of course, the message has been different to the elderly and vulnerable, who are at much greater risk from the virus.

However, most people I've spoken to understand that they are staying home to protect those people, not themselves. Maybe the people I know are atypical.

Which is understandable but slightly ironic given that the risk to them is so low.

Parents are very protective of young children.

 

[underbank]

Surely the first phase of exit has to be persuading organisations and workers who were never prevented from working in the first place to re-open??

What's the point of easing the rules to let more organisations open, if there are huge numbers of them which are already allowed still aren't?

I think the first phase will be a strong message from the Govt, along with advice/support etc., will be aimed at all the people/organisations who could work but aren't. Shops, garages, etc that aren't on the "banned" list need to re-open first. Of course, some can't due to staff/owners shielding, or premises that could never be made social-distance compliant (in the same way some could never be made disability compliant, hence the "reasonable" exemption), but we really need to move to get those which could open, back open.

I'm no fan of KFC, Greggs, McDonalds, B&Q, Homebase etc., but I think they're leading the way out of the lockdown. They didn't need to close in the first place, but are making tentative steps to re-open. The rest of the business world will be watching and learning from them. The only thing I don't like is the usual social media echo chamber whingeing about them as if they're doing something wrong and taking advantage of loopholes etc - they're not - they could have stayed open throughout had they applied social distancing, gone takeaway/delivery only etc., which is what they're doing now. Small private businesses have led the way - many stayed open throughout and many have already changed their way of operating to adopt social distancing, i.e. private garden centres, pubs, restaurants, etc doing home deliveries etc.

 

[HH]

It is true that many businesses have shut down completely when this isn't entirely necessary. I've had messages from garages this week saying that they're re-opening, but you have to wonder why they closed in the first place. Yes, they probably needed to change a few things around, but there is plenty of space in a workshop (there has to be), so it seems likely that the complete closures were a result of panic, rather than logical, thought-through decisions.

 

[Bletchleyite]

Parents are very protective of young children.

Some parents are very protective of young children. I think what has changed on that one, though, is the narrative over the past 5 years, where parents of what you might term more "free range" children receive heavy criticism, rather than such decisions on parenting being solely one for that parent (beyond, obviously, more serious stuff like abuse). Maybe virtue-signalling is the theme for the 2010s and 2020s?