And yet yesterday Sweden had over 100 deaths, while neighbouring (and similar in every way apart from covid-19 strategy) Norway had just 6. It appears that Sweden is relying on herd immunity, despite the scientific evidence that immunity from having the disease is both weak and short-lived.
It's a brave decision to go against what everyone else is doing, but if it weren't for the fact that the majority of the population is voluntarily "locking down" then things might have been very ugly indeed by now. Only time will tell if that has been enough.
This appears to ignore the fact that they are carrying out a lot more tests now, so you would expect to see an increase in cases detected.
Not a prediction, but what I think the governemnet should do as it's first easing, is to allow more businesses to trade. It's already happening, with both large businesses (Maccy D's, B&Q, etc) and small (the increase in car journeys was today described as work related). By making official that what is happening anyway, they avoid some difficult issues and get a chance to see what the effect is on R. Plus it's also the biggest benefit to the economy.
If more people can start working again it may help in a number of other areas (such as domestic violence) as well.
Sweden's plan isn't herd immunity, it is voluntary social distancing and lighter 'lockdown'. Their immunologist in chief essentially says that herd immunity may be a by-product, but it is certainly not the aim.
There are 2m distancing billboards up and the streets are noticeably less busy than usual according to reports on the ground. I think within coming weeks, especially in countries like the US and UK, the gap will close between Sweden and everyone else.
Norway also has half the population of Sweden, which closes that gap slightly. However, I think that the main point is, most countries will see a widespread outbreak at some point, it is just a matter of time, lockdown may only delay the process.
This was an opportunity for them really - let people "creep" out of lockdown themselves, if it goes well they take the credit, if it goes badly they lock down tighter and blame us.
That's true, it could very well be the plan, at least I hope the government is already acknowledging the fact people are struggling and beginning to go out more again. If not, they could find themselves blindsided somewhat!
Extending the lockdown beyond 7 May would be both political and economical suicide. If the government neither ease some of the restrictions nor give any indication of when they will be relaxed, people will just refuse to obey them.
I think the 7th of May would be a good date to look at relaxing the restrictions, although I think they will be extended by another three weeks at least...
I can't find anything to that effect (vaccine = stronger immunity) from Sarah Gilbert or Jenner Institute generally, but I'll take your word for it!
As for the bits about disappearing antibodies and the potential for reinfection, then we're back to the whole "the virus can't effectively be stopped" unless we manage to eradicate it during a period when everyone is immune. It may be my schoolboy understanding of vaccines, but if antibodies generated in response to the virus disappear after a period of time then so will those produced in response to vaccines, unless the vaccine allows for some kind of 'superimmunity' which we won't know for several years yet! If that is the case and immunity isn't something that can be done it's either learn to live with it and accept the death toll (or hope for effective treatment) or continue in perpetuity with varying degrees of lockdown, quarantines, and test&trace.
I think vaccines are a generally more effective form of immunisation than getting the disease.
I don't think that more frequent vaccinations are that big of a deal compared to what we currently live with, I'm not someone who perticularly struggles with having them though, I can understand for some who fear needles might be less easy! (Just staring at the wall for 30 seconds while it's done does the trick tbh)
I'm sure there will be multiple different vaccine solutions available in the end, at least if one of them works to buy us a few months until a better one is available, then that will be very useful still.
