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Exit strategy predictions

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nlogax

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If a further lockdown is imposed on 7 May many people may start to disobey the guidelines as they will feel the lockdown has gone on long enough.

To act as a pressure relief valve, come May 7th there'll be a suggestion of light at the end of the tunnel with a proposed end to some of the restrictions. Whether that will come into effect on May 7th is a different matter.
 
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Huntergreed

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To act as a pressure relief valve, come May 7th there'll be a suggestion of light at the end of the tunnel with a proposed end to some of the restrictions. Whether that will come into effect on May 7th is a different matter.

I would make a guess that, if they are not eased on May 7th, they’ll announce a weekly review of restrictions to keep people’s hope up for the short term and to be able to lift them as soon as is safely possible
 

PTR 444

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I have some questions about what happens regarding travel when the lockdown restrictions are eased. I have read speculation on this forum (that sounds similar to what some other countries have done e.g. Italy) that when the first phase of easing of restrictions takes place non essential travel by public transport may continue to be restricted or prohibited. Presuming that transport by private car is permitted after this I believe this could be a problem for those who do not have access to a car when visiting friends or family is permitted. You have also got to bear in mind that many people cannot drive cars for medical reasons, so if private car non essential travel is permitted but train/bus is not do you believe this could have legal implications under the Equality Act as it could be discriminatory against those with disabilities especially those who cannot drive for medical reasons as well as possibly under other legislation such as the Human Rights Act so if the regulations regarding non essential travel are legally enforceable like the leaving home regulations (can anyone clarify this regarding public transport? Advisory or legally binding?) I could certainly see the scope for legal challenge if non essential PT travel was restricted when visiting friends/family is permitted/non essential car travel.

I have Asperger's/Autism and I am a holder of both a Merseytravel disabled travel pass and a DSB railcard so does anyone see the case that after the lockdown is lifted and visiting friends and family is permitted again that at the very least you should be permitted to travel by public transport if you hold a disabled travel pass and/or a DSB railcard with provision for a carer to travel as well if necessary at the very least to see friends or family - friends or family that you may not have seen for a long time. My own opinion on this having autism is that this is imperative for our well being I have a friend that I travel to see on a regular basis who is also on the autistic spectrum and also does not drive. Also in the stay at home regulations if you have autism or a learning difficulty you are permitted outside up to 3 times a day and you could claim that seeing your friend is an essential health reason under this but as I said above IMO non essential travel for Disabled Pass and DSB railcard holders should not be restricted after lockdown easing?

Totally agree with this. Travel also helps a lot of autistic people stay sane so I think allowing them to use buses and trains with their ENCTS pass/railcard would be a step forward, especially since people with autism are already allowed to leave the house for exercise more than once a day.
 

chris11256

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You're probably right, although I think the government might have to start putting some kind of timeline in place. As the numbers improve(as they have been) it'll get harder to justify the lockdown in it's current form.
 

Bletchleyite

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I would make a guess that, if they are not eased on May 7th, they’ll announce a weekly review of restrictions to keep people’s hope up for the short term and to be able to lift them as soon as is safely possible

My personal view looking at the graphs is that we do need 3 more weeks, also more time to get testing up and a tracking app in place, then we can start to loosen.
 

bramling

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Totally agree with this. Travel also helps a lot of autistic people stay sane so I think allowing them to use buses and trains with their ENCTS pass/railcard would be a step forward, especially since people with autism are already allowed to leave the house for exercise more than once a day.

Is it *really* worth taking the risk of getting C19 just for the purpose of “staying sane”?

And given the pressure public transport is going to be under with severely reduced capacity, is this a priority?
 

Ianno87

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Is it *really* worth taking the risk of getting C19 just for the purpose of “staying sane”?

And given the pressure public transport is going to be under with severely reduced capacity, is this a priority?

If it saves suicides, then yes.
 

Bletchleyite

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Is it *really* worth taking the risk of getting C19 just for the purpose of “staying sane”?

I'm really, genuinely not in the slightest bit bothered about getting C19. I might even have already had it. The death rate for my age group is very low. Odds on it would just be an unpleasant couple of weeks. Unless there is a big change in the death rate, that isn't going to change, and because fear is innate rather than rational nothing anyone says is going to change it. You may get people to agree to measures to protect others, but I am not a germophobe in terms of myself and that will not change, at least unless there is a major change in my general health e.g. requiring me to take immune suppressing medicine.

I take a bigger personal risk when I go rock climbing or scrambling than I do taking a train at present (not that I am doing, for the protection of others).

One thing I find hard is that some people don't accept that that is the position of quite a lot of (particularly younger) people, and that any actions they are taking are done either because of altruism or because of fear of enforcement or the judgement of others. Probably a bit of both.

But talking of "staying sane", yes, it might be worth it even if high-risk, because people in a genuinely poor mental state (rather than just a little stir crazy) may be a suicide risk.
 

takno

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Is it *really* worth taking the risk of getting C19 just for the purpose of “staying sane”?

And given the pressure public transport is going to be under with severely reduced capacity, is this a priority?
Putting air quotes around staying sane rather cheapens the whole concept of mental health. Various mental health conditions debilitate tens of thousands of people a year, and ultimately lead to hundreds of suicides. We can't just start putting that back in air quotes because the media has something more exciting to talk about this month.

In any case it's pointless to compare it with a individual's personal risk of getting C19. For the vast majority of people under 60 the risk from that is really very small indeed, which is why all of the publicity focuses on their risk of spreading it to more vulnerable groups.
 

Huntergreed

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Putting air quotes around staying sane rather cheapens the whole concept of mental health. Various mental health conditions debilitate tens of thousands of people a year, and ultimately lead to hundreds of suicides. We can't just start putting that back in air quotes because the media has something more exciting to talk about this month.

In any case it's pointless to compare it with a individual's personal risk of getting C19. For the vast majority of people under 60 the risk from that is really very small indeed, which is why all of the publicity focuses on their risk of spreading it to more vulnerable groups.

Indeed, I would imagine once the death rate falls for C19, which will hopefully be soon, it’ll be a fine balancing act between preventing deaths from it and from other causes such as mental health and loss of livelihood through sustained damage to the economy. It’ll be a tough balance to get right but hopefully we’ll be able to find some compromise.
 

JonathanH

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I would make a guess that, if they are not eased on May 7th, they’ll announce a weekly review of restrictions to keep people’s hope up for the short term and to be able to lift them as soon as is safely possible

"Get people's hopes up"? People should be prepared for a lot of restrictions to apply for “really quite a long period of time”. Ultimately, people need to take solace in activities that are consistent with social distancing and may not be what they are used to. It is fundamentally important to have a working economy and for people to have stability but people's hopes for freedom from restrictions is nowhere near.

Prof Chris Whitty, the UK’s most senior medic, said it was important to be realistic that “highly disruptive” social distancing would need to be in place for “really quite a long period of time”.

“We have to be very realistic,” he said. “If people are hoping it’s suddenly going to move from where we are in lockdown to where suddenly into everything is gone, that is a wholly unrealistic expectation.

“We are going to have to do a lot of things for really quite a long period of time, the question is what is the best package and this is what we’re trying to work out.
 

Huntergreed

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"Get people's hopes up"? People should be prepared for a lot of restrictions to apply for “really quite a long period of time”. Ultimately, people need to take solace in activities that are consistent with social distancing and may not be what they are used to.

Yes I agree that it is likely that social distancing will be life as we know it for the foreseeable future, however I do think that more businesses will be allowed to open in the short term and, whilst we won't be returning to normal for a long time, I think it's conceivable that we may towards mid-may be ready to take the first step towards the temporary 'new normal'.
 

chris11256

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Just a reminder that social distancing isn't lockdown. We can have long term social distancing without locking everyone in their homes.
 

JonathanH

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Just a reminder that social distancing isn't lockdown. We can have long term social distancing without locking everyone in their homes.

Yes, I agree but "voluntary lockdown" is one of the best forms of social distancing
 

takno

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"Get people's hopes up"? People should be prepared for a lot of restrictions to apply for “really quite a long period of time”. Ultimately, people need to take solace in activities that are consistent with social distancing and may not be what they are used to.
I suspect people who think that's going to happen should be preparing themselves for extremely wide-scale and utterly casual breaches of the law and regulations. People aren't built for this, and it really doesn't help when medical type go about making airy statements about how we've got to "get used" to a deeply unpleasant level of state intrusion into all our lives because it's "doctors orders".

You have to be able to demonstrate that you've considered the value of the lives you are saving, that you have an up-to-date and credible model of how many of those lives intervention like lockdown is actually saving, and that you have modelled the economic, psychological and future health consequences for the people being locked down. The government has provided essentially none of that, and just doubles down every day on R< like it's some kind of magical stick that means what they say goes.
 

CaptainHaddock

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"Get people's hopes up"? People should be prepared for a lot of restrictions to apply for “really quite a long period of time”. Ultimately, people need to take solace in activities that are consistent with social distancing and may not be what they are used to. It is fundamentally important to have a working economy and for people to have stability but people's hopes for freedom from restrictions is nowhere near.

It should be remembered that Chris Whitty is an advisor to the government; he is not a member of the government and as such can only advise on government policy rather than make it. It's also likely that those on the scientific and medical side of the argument are being excessively cautious as they don't want to be the ones who gets the blame should it turn out that some of the restrictions were lifted too early. And of course “really quite a long period of time” is a deliberately vague term; it could mean anything from a few weeks to several months.
 

nedchester

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It should be remembered that Chris Whitty is an advisor to the government; he is not a member of the government and as such can only advise on government policy rather than make it. It's also likely that those on the scientific and medical side of the argument are being excessively cautious as they don't want to be the ones who gets the blame should it turn out that some of the restrictions were lifted too early. And of course “really quite a long period of time” is a deliberately vague term; it could mean anything from a few weeks to several months.
Exactly. This is not a pure medical issue, it is an economic one; the two are intertwined.

For example. Doctors will say ban cigarettes as they cause lung cancer but the government receives valuable tax revenue from that so doesn't 'follow the science' whatever they say...….

They were late into lockdown because they needed to look at both science and economics and were trying to balance them. And I say that as no fan of the Government.
 

takno

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It should be remembered that Chris Whitty is an advisor to the government; he is not a member of the government and as such can only advise on government policy rather than make it. It's also likely that those on the scientific and medical side of the argument are being excessively cautious as they don't want to be the ones who gets the blame should it turn out that some of the restrictions were lifted too early. And of course “really quite a long period of time” is a deliberately vague term; it could mean anything from a few weeks to several months.
Absolutely. It's incumbent on Chris Whitty as CMO to advise on the basic medical aspects of this, just as it's incumbent on the government to take expert advice on the psychological, economic and ethical aspects of it from other people. Whenever the government says they are "listening to the science", it's a daily reminder that they are only doing half their job, and in the process are fitting the scientists up for all of the blame when we look back at this. Chris Whitty is a good man, and we aren't doing right by him making him stand at a podium every day answering questions that are beyond his pay grade.
 

Mag_seven

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Is it *really* worth taking the risk of getting C19 just for the purpose of “staying sane”?

You can't divorce the two and assume its a trade off between one and the other. They are linked. Good mental health achieved through regular exercise will also increase your body's resilience to COVID if you catch it.
 

Enthusiast

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Do you consider a situation where people can't get treatment to be either possible or acceptable?
There are already people unable to get treatment for non-Covid illnesses because of the change of emphasis. There are various reports and figures bandied about and you can pick any one you want. But there is no doubt that treatment for some serious illnesses is being curtailed. Each year more than 160k people die from cancer and around 180k from heart and respiratory disease - getting on for half of all deaths. Most of these are among the elderly (just as most of the Covid deaths are). There will come a point when the NHS or the government will have to decide when this emphasis will cease and that Covid will become one of the multitude of other conditions that need to be treated. They can't save everybody from a painful or uncomfortable death from cancer and they will not be able to save everybody from a painful or uncomfortable death from Covid. Once that is accepted it will have to move on to the situation pre-Covid where, although people were dying from cancer, non-essential but extremely desirable treatments such as knee and hip replacements will have to resume. I haven't even touched on the long term psychological problems which people - young and old - will endure.
Technically speaking, people should not be shopping for DIY or gardening stuff as we were only advised to shop for essential items. (such as food & medicines).
Not quite. We were told that a "reasonable excuse" to go out (and since the amendment to the regulations, to remain out) was to

"..obtain basic necessities, including food and medical supplies for those in the same household (including any pets or animals in the household) or for vulnerable persons and supplies for the essential upkeep, maintenance and functioning of the household,"

And thereby hangs the problem. One person's view of items "...for the essential upkeep, maintenance and functioning of the household," will vary wildly from another. Near me a fence was destroyed in the February gales. It is still on the ground now, even though it separates the property from the street. The owner obviously does not consider a replacement as very urgent. I would. If the same thing happened to me today I would be down to B&Q (or wherever I thought appropriate and was open) to buy the materials and have them delivered. This is where the lockdown will fall apart. People will note me going to B&Q to get my fencing and they will think that there is no difference (as far as risk goes) in me going there for that and them going there for a tin of paint to decorate the spare bedroom which they've been meaning to do for ages but now have the time for because they are furloughed. He may not convince a police officer or a court of his case but it won't matter as effective enforcement will be impossible.

Despite the difference of opinion regarding the "new normal" there seems widespread acceptance that a "new normal" is emerging, that it must be embraced and that it will be complied with for a long period. The "new normal" that is necessary is for the authorities to accept that Covid is a "normal" and possibly life-threatening condition along with all the others that the NHS has to treat. If the government does not acquiesce to that acceptance the public will do it for them.
 

bramling

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You can't divorce the two and assume its a trade off between one and the other. They are linked. Good mental health achieved through regular exercise will also increase your body's resilience to COVID if you catch it.

I get that, but does regular exercise *really* *need* to involve using *public transport*?

It's quite clear public transport is going to be an extremely scarce resource in certain places and at certain times, and the pecking order of how that scarce resource is allocated is going to need some difficult decisions to be taken.

Many people getting to work will *need* to use public transport because there's little realistic alternative, whereas there's alternatives for exercise. The harsh reality is sometimes some people are going to have to accept no as an answer.
 

takno

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It's quite clear public transport is going to be an extremely scarce resource in certain places and at certain times, and the pecking order of how that scarce resource is allocated is going to need some difficult decisions to be taken.
That may be true, but in practice no "difficult decisions" have been made. A few arbitrary declarations and a hasty law was knocked together which could be reasonably expected to last month while the difficult decisions were made. Instead of using that time wisely there appears to have been no thought or action at all. The arbitrary declarations are still being expected to hold out, while the government sits on its hands and expects us to fawn over picture's of the PM's latest offspring.
 

edwin_m

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This already the case with the care home my wife works at. An extended lockdown is largely irrelevant, the home has banned visitors since mid march and so far thankfully hasn't had any cases of Coronavirus.

Broadly cases have been either brought in by staff in a small number of cases, but largely it's care home residents catching it in Hospital and then still being discharged back into the care home. This has been NHS policy for a while to free up hospital beds.
If the policy is to prevent infection getting into care homes rather than try to isolate some residents within them, then all patients proposed for discharge to a care home need to be tested and kept in hospital if positive. Which comes back to my previous point of increasing pressure on the NHS, though not by as much as if an infected person is discharged and infects many others. Unless of course care home residents are effectively abandoned to their fate, which I don't believe is morally acceptable.
 

Meerkat

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Instead of using that time wisely there appears to have been no thought or action at all
Is this from deep inside knowledge or are you assuming that all planning would be made public?
 

takno

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Is this from deep inside knowledge or are you assuming that all planning would be made public?
This is less about planning than about the decisions that the planning would enforce. There isn't a shortage of people figuring out clever but extreme measures to solve the immediate problem, but there are no public signs that people are weighing up the costs of those actions and directing them in a strategic and ethical way. Right now it feels like we've discovered a wasps nest in the basement, and somebody has suggested burning the house down. I mean it's great we have plans in place to fetch petrol, and I'm greatly reassured that Boris has a six point plan for remembering where he left the matches. II would genuinely like some evidence though that somebody has had a damn good think about whether burning the house down is, on balance, the optimal solution to the wasps nest problem.
 

bramling

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That may be true, but in practice no "difficult decisions" have been made. A few arbitrary declarations and a hasty law was knocked together which could be reasonably expected to last month while the difficult decisions were made. Instead of using that time wisely there appears to have been no thought or action at all. The arbitrary declarations are still being expected to hold out, while the government sits on its hands and expects us to fawn over picture's of the PM's latest offspring.

I agree with all that. There doesn’t appear to have been much going on behind the scenes, which is no doubt partly due to Boris’s illness. It does feel like we had three weeks of limbo.
 

Domh245

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I agree with all that. There doesn’t appear to have been much going on behind the scenes, which is no doubt partly due to Boris’s illness. It does feel like we had three weeks of limbo.

Lack of appearance doesn't mean it hasn't been happening of course. There's the high profile developments such as the increased testing capacity and the development of the 'track & trace' app, but I'd be amazed if there hadn't been ongoing discussions that were strictly confidential. There was the story about the railway being asked to step up it's service from the 18th of May and I wouldn't be surprised if other industries had been similarly asked to prepare for resumption or at least step change from that particular day. The reason that we won't be hearing about it is because the last thing the Government wants is for everyone to start pencilling the 18th in as "last day of lockdown" - partially to avoid bad press if it's decided that current measures have to continue past it, but also to prevent people from planning everything around it on the assumption that normality can be resumed from then
 

takno

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Lack of appearance doesn't mean it hasn't been happening of course. There's the high profile developments such as the increased testing capacity and the development of the 'track & trace' app, but I'd be amazed if there hadn't been ongoing discussions that were strictly confidential. There was the story about the railway being asked to step up it's service from the 18th of May and I wouldn't be surprised if other industries had been similarly asked to prepare for resumption or at least step change from that particular day. The reason that we won't be hearing about it is because the last thing the Government wants is for everyone to start pencilling the 18th in as "last day of lockdown" - partially to avoid bad press if it's decided that current measures have to continue past it, but also to prevent people from planning everything around it on the assumption that normality can be resumed from then
I think there probably are fairly active plans in place to lighten up. I'm just getting frustrated because we are starting to lag behind the rest of Europe in making plans for this, and there seems to be an assumption that you can't be honest with people or they'll immediately head outside and start holding hands with strangers or something. Mind you, living in Scotland seems to be slightly worse in that respect - the Scottish government response is possibly even more contemptuous and doom-laden, but is constantly couched in false claims to be treating us like adults.
 
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