Wasn't the closing date Christmas Eve? I doubt the tenders have been opened yet, so surely no decision has been made at all. Unless it's somehow failed to get through the very first stage, in which case it would suggest a major mistake or oversight in the bid?
And if there's any rumours going around based on any facts, i.e. someone has heard something 'from the inside'- then there could be a lot of trouble ahead for FCC, the DfT or even individual members of staff talking about it as anything more than gossip.
If FCC itself is pretty sure it put in a poor bid and will lose, or wasn't actually that bothered about keeping it, even that should be kept pretty quiet as I'm sure the shareholders won't want news like that leaking out. To be honest, it would have been better not to bid had that been the case.
After the WCML fiasco, there has been plenty of speculation that the DfT might seek to compensate First by giving it another franchise - but that would of course be totally illegal and drop the DfT in even more trouble. It must be based on the bid and nothing else.
I can see that given the requirements for the new TSGN franchise, it's going to be potentially quite tough.. and we've all speculated about the likely problems ahead with delays through the core. Maybe First isn't actually bothered about getting it and put in a weak bid - as many businesses do when speculatively bidding for things they're not fussed about winning either way. Sadly something many companies suffer when the likes of Serco bid for almost everything (nb. I don't actually mean Serco specifically), but often fail to even read the tenders properly and are quickly rejected. Despite the quick elimination, someone has to go through them and that wastes time and money (my dad having had to do this numerous times for companies bidding for servicing contracts for major housing associations).
I'd hope at this stage that nothing is known at all and, as I said, it's merely gossip or just the stuff kids used to do just after taking exams - preparing for a possible defeat by playing things down in advance. Then going on to do very well.