AWC Derailment at Shap Summit 03/11/25

[edwin_m]

If I remember right, at Carmont it wasn't the earthworks that moved, it was a load of material that got washed out of a drainage trench onto the track. If the same thing happened here, then you'd not necessarily expect that equipment to detect it.

To me the photo in #189 (https://www.railforums.co.uk/threads/awc-derailment-at-shap-summit-03-11-25.294230/post-7533622) shows that some of the cutting side has been washed down onto the track. Whether this is correct or not, it also shows that whatever happened has dislodged some of the white things on little posts which we presume to be detectors for earthwork movement. On those assumptions there are several possibilities for why the train struck the landslip:

• The detectors were not operational for some reason
• The detectors only reported to the maintainer, who wasn't continuously monitoring or didn't have the ability to get trains stopped quickly
• The problem was reported to the operator but happened so shortly before the train reached it that no action was possible to get the train stopped

 

[Harpo]

On those assumptions there are several possibilities for why the train struck the landslip:

Also an unproven assumption currently.

 

[Yorkshire09876]

Also an unproven assumption currently.

So if it didn't hit a landslip,what do you think caused the damage to the front of the train, and derailed the leading vehicle?

 

[35B]

So if it didn't hit a landslip,what do you think caused the damage to the front of the train, and derailed the leading vehicle?

The obvious one is that the landslip hit the train.

 

[Yorkshire09876]

The obvious one is that the landslip hit the train.

It would have had to hit the train's nose with a lot of force to cause that damage and derail the leading vehicle, but then the earth would need to have immediately stopped moving in order to avoid derailing further vehicles. Doesn't seem very likely!

 

[chrisjo]

Doesn't seem very likely!

True, but not a line of argument that would impress the RAIB very much, I feel.

 

[LNW-GW Joint]

The Network Rail update on this incident includes the following, as well as confirming the RAIB have completed their on-site investigations:

Update on disruption for passengers after Shap train derailment

Investigations are continuing following a train derailment near Shap in Cumbria early this morning.

www.networkrailmediacentre.co.uk

In addition, as part of a wider investment, Network Rail is delivering a West Coast North Modernisation Programme that involves an upgrade of the Warrington Bank Quay–Carlisle corridor to futureproof one of the North’s most vital passenger and freight routes. With £323 million already committed for the next four years, the programme is introducing modern signalling and simplifying infrastructure to boost train service capacity and reliability.

I think this is the first time I have seen a public commitment to an infrastructure upgrade of WCML North, with funding quoted for CP7.
Presumably it involves rolling out ETCS at some point.
It might have been a bad week for the rail network generally, but the incident handling and service recovery on both ECML and WCML has been exemplary.

 

[zwk500]

It would have had to hit the train's nose with a lot of force to cause that damage and derail the leading vehicle, but then the earth would need to have immediately stopped moving in order to avoid derailing further vehicles. Doesn't seem very likely!

This assumes that the landslip itself is the thing that derailed the train. Given the distance travelled and the damage incurred, it is not a secure assumption that the train derailed directly from the landslide.

 

[Yorkshire09876]

True, but not a line of argument that would impress the RAIB very much, I feel.

RAIB will be familiar with how moving earth behaves, and the way that happens on a slope makes it pretty much impossible that it could hit the front of a train travelling at speed ,with enough force to severely damage it, then not hit the following vehicles which would arrive seconds afterwards!

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 4 Nov 2025 ==

This assumes that the landslip itself is the thing that derailed the train. Given the distance travelled and the damage incurred, it is not a secure assumption that the train derailed directly from the landslide.

So there was a cow, or something else large, on the line in pretty much the same place as the landslip? Clearly the train hit something substantial or it wouldn't be devoid of its nose.

It almost seems that some on here try to dream up highly unlikely scenarios so that they can challenge the obvious explanation!

 

[Harpo]

So if it didn't hit a landslip,what do you think caused the damage to the front of the train, and derailed the leading vehicle?

Anything that I think about the immediate cause (i.e. the mechanism of the derailment) is similarly unproven.

 

[edwin_m]

RAIB will be familiar with how moving earth behaves, and the way that happens on a slope makes it pretty much impossible that it could hit the front of a train travelling at speed ,with enough force to severely damage it, then not hit the following vehicles which would arrive seconds afterwards!

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 4 Nov 2025 ==



So there was a cow, or something else large, on the line in pretty much the same place as the landslip? Clearly the train hit something substantial or it wouldn't be devoid of its nose.

It almost seems that some on here try to dream up highly unlikely scenarios so that they can challenge the obvious explanation!

From reading accident reports it seems to be reasonably easy for an expert to determine where and how a derailment took place by reviewing the marks left on the rails and wheels. Also, whatever impacted the front end would have left traces, and I think we would have heard if there was evidence of hitting an animal or a vehicle rather than just earth.

From the nose damage, I suggest the material was piled relatively high as the train hit it, but that impact must have pushed enough of it out of the way that the rest of the train passed without derailing.

Anything that I think about the immediate cause is similarly unproven.

Everything is unproven at this stage, that's why I said the previous post you quoted was based on assumptions. If it was proven it would cease to be an assumption.

But while the investigators will no doubt keep an open mind, I suggest there is good evidence that one cause is much more likely than any other.

 

[357]

I'm just glad that for once BTP didn't feel the need to arrest the driver

 

[Spartacus]

RAIB will be familiar with how moving earth behaves, and the way that happens on a slope makes it pretty much impossible that it could hit the front of a train travelling at speed ,with enough force to severely damage it, then not hit the following vehicles which would arrive seconds afterwards!

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 4 Nov 2025 ==



So there was a cow, or something else large, on the line in pretty much the same place as the landslip? Clearly the train hit something substantial or it wouldn't be devoid of its nose.

It almost seems that some on here try to dream up highly unlikely scenarios so that they can challenge the obvious explanation!

It's dead easy to point at the landslip and say "that's the problem, no need to look at anything else", and it probably is, but the trouble is while everyone's looking at the slip it might be easy to miss some other fault was really to blame, a track or rail fault on the approach to the slip that could cause the next service to derail too, or at the very least was a contributory factor that once it's realised the slip really should't have been bad enough to cause a derailment it's too late to check whatever else it might have been, the evidence is lost, or you realise things have been running with or over a potentially dangerous fault.

That's why you want to check everything you can before coming to conclusions. Yeah, probably is the landslip, BUT.....

 

[35B]

It would have had to hit the train's nose with a lot of force to cause that damage and derail the leading vehicle, but then the earth would need to have immediately stopped moving in order to avoid derailing further vehicles. Doesn't seem very likely!

I agree. But the point is that the evidence needs to be assessed before a conclusion is reached. Especially if the interesting thing about this incident is not “what happened” but “why it happened” - an analysis that needs to go a fair bit further back.

 

[SansHache]

390117 now appears to be sat at Carlisle with the pantograph raised, presumably being prepared for onward transit to Polmadie.
The obstacle deflector (lifeguard) on the leading bogie proved very effective in ploughing through the debris and minimising the derailment risk for the remainder of the train.

 

[SuspectUsual]

This has just passed northbound through Oxenholme en route to Shap

 

[zwk500]

So there was a cow, or something else large, on the line in pretty much the same place as the landslip? Clearly the train hit something substantial or it wouldn't be devoid of its nose.

It almost seems that some on here try to dream up highly unlikely scenarios so that they can challenge the obvious explanation!

A very likely scenario is that the train hit the landslide or the landslide hit the train and it did not immediately derail, but that the first impact damaged or dislodged something on the train that then caused the ultimate derailment a short moment later.

But I'm only speculating. I await the expert's report.

 

[InvHst]

The 57 however needed assistance from Penrith by a 68 due to an air leak from the 57

 

[The Bear]

390117 now appears to be sat at Carlisle with the pantograph raised, presumably being prepared for onward transit to Polmadie.

390117 was hauled away from Shap Wells/Shap Summit by 57309 as far as Penrith where it was failed with air problems.
68003 was sent from Kingmoor and hauled them back to Carlisle.

 

[Retorus]

This has just passed northbound through Oxenholme en route to Shap

I knew the weather around there was dreary but I didn't think it was that bad.

 

[Mcr Warrior]

How far a walk did they have to the Shap Wells Hotel from the incident?

Anyone able to confirm what the approximate OS map location was of where the front end of the train came to a halt? (Maybe NY 575 106?) In the picture on the BBC news report from yesterday of passengers walking along the line (in their update of 1227), you can just about see some overhead electricity lines, high up, crossing the railway at right angles in the middle distance.

So, where would it have been optimal to leave the railway line to get to the hotel, in the circumstances? I'd say passengers might have had to walk maybe some 1 km along the line in a generally South Easterly direction, towards the Shap Wells Hotel access track (which heads SW off the B6261 and then continues SW under the WCML) and then another 0.5 km to the hotel. Trickiest bit *may* have been climbing over the railway boundary fence to get down to the track unless, of course, someone had got busy with some heavyweight wire cutters. Happy to be corrected.

West Coast Main Line: Train derails in Cumbria with 'days' of disruption expected

The train was carrying around 85 passengers when it derailed at 06:10 - Avanti West Coast advises customers not to travel north of Preston today.

www.bbc.co.uk

 

[Annetts key]

A few pictures of the front of the train but does anyone seen any of the actual landslip and the conditions of the embankment? I'm no expert but considering the whole nose of the train came off it must be quite a bit earth movement, contrary to the photos where the embankment isn't actually that much higher than the train

I have seen some photos of a landslide that appears to be the one related to this incident. As far as I am aware, they are not in the public domain so I can't link to them here and I don't wish to copy them here. These photos do have four to eight people in bright clean orange clothing looking at the landslide.

In the photos that I have seen, there is soil in the four foot with the cess rail being covered in places. Plus there is what appears to be dislodged vegetation close to the line on what should be the ballast shoulder. But the height of the soil is higher than the top of the rail here. The photo is an aerial shot, so I'm unable to say for certain, but there may be some small rocks amongst the mud and soil.

It looks like a train has been through it, but that after the train went through, soil and mud continued to flow down onto the cess rail.

I know from having been to a landslide elsewhere in the country, that wet soil can continue moving slowly for some time after the initial slide event has taken place.

 

[DelW]

I have seen some photos of a landslide that appears to be the one related to this incident. As far as I am aware, they are not in the public domain so I can't link to them here and I don't wish to copy them here. These photos do have four to eight people in bright clean orange clothing looking at the landslide.

Are you able to comment whether those photos match the second one in post #189 or not? That photo does seem to have a grid pylon in about the right place, when compared with the picture of the passenger evacuation.

 

[BlinkenLights]

Trickiest bit *may* have been climbing over the railway boundary fence to get down to the track unless, of course, someone had got busy with some heavyweight wire cutters. Happy to be corrected.

There's an access point with a padlocked gate, so they would have got busy with a key...

Google streetview of access gate with hotel in the distance ahead.

Street View · Google Maps

Explore a place in a more immersive way in Google Maps.

www.google.com

 

[800001]

There's an access point with a padlocked gate, so they would have got busy with a key...

Google streetview of access gate with hotel in the distance ahead.

Street View · Google Maps

Explore a place in a more immersive way in Google Maps.

www.google.com

Universal padlock which a MOM would have been able to unlock in plenty of time for the passengers getting to the gate.

 

[Mcr Warrior]

There's an access point with a padlocked gate, so they would have got busy with a key...

Good find. That is indeed the Shap Wells Hotel access road.

 

[Teaboy1]

Did well to remain upright and on its wheels! Lucky or good design.

 

[Annetts key]

Two images of the extent. Note that the landslip shown in image 2 is in the background of image 1.

Image 1 shows the full Pendolino consist viewed from the front with the landslip visible in the distance. Image 2 shows the landslip as viewed from the train.

Are you able to comment whether those photos match the second one in post #189 or not? That photo does seem to have a grid pylon in about the right place, when compared with the picture of the passenger evacuation.

The photos I have seen appear to have been taken from an aircraft (helicopter or drone). They have been taken from a different angle to that in post #189. Above and to the left compared to that photo. So from the direction the train came from. They are a tight focus so no power lines (apart from the OHL) can be seen. They do show the earthworks monitoring system parts including the main unit with the PV solar panel right next to the slip.

Other photos in the same set show the train along with signal CE121 and signal CE122.

 

[greatkingrat]

Universal padlock which a MOM would have been able to unlock in plenty of time for the passengers getting to the gate.

If all else fails, looks like a good kick would have worked too! Not the most secure access point, although I guess it's not an area that sees a lot of ASB.

 

[lrbvoyager]

May already been posted so sorry but my signals bad and not everything is loading!