More than 50mm has fallen over Shap in the last 24 hours and there’s plenty more to come over the next 10 days.
This area is very vulnerable to high rainfall totals due to the topography and prevailing wind.
Playing any rainfall radar for this area overnight shows plenty of bouts of rainfall moving west to east, gaining intensity as it hits the high ground, then further east has either disappeared or is much weaker.
Given Shap is high up, the intensity here will be much higher than at sea level or the leeward side of high ground.
According to the
live flood map, in the last 24 hours Wet Sleddale, the nearest gauge to Shap, received 51.9mm of rainfall, however Scalebeck to the east only received 11mm in the same period. Over the Lake District it was even higher, with several gauges seeing over 60mm and Honister apparently seeing 138mm! (the latter one is surrounded by several peaks over 600m above sea level)