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Southeastern metro fleet replacement/improvement

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brad465

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Nope definitely 466028
Can confirm this is correct.
Okay, sounds like there was confusion elsewhere, which is possible considering the very similar numbers and how a 6 and 8 can be hard to distinguish from a distance.

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A Kingsbury drag is pencilled in for this Tuesday:

 
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Robin Edwards

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brad465

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The unit I have a "watch at all costs" note against when its time comes is 465921, as it was a fond part of my A-Level revision in 2014 when doing weekend train roams and revising on the journeys, including on an express run to/from Maidstone East while Rochester was shut for its relocation works. I'm hoping it's dragged on a day where I have no serious work commitments so I can easily get out to catch it, especially if it goes to Kingsbury. If it goes to Newport that's not so bad as Bristol Parkway is easy for me to get to, and I watched 4x 465/2s (on 2x runs) go through there.
 

Snow1964

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The DfT spreadsheet (updated 11th September) is still showing a vague number of trains of between 350 and 640 vehicles

Eversholt Networker ReplacementSupply of replacement new Rolling Stock for Southeastern, of between 350 and 640 vehicles

However the sheet now shows the date of 01/07/25 (which has already gone) as the start of the 420 months (35 years) covered. Normally dates are in future, so basically this is now 3 months overdue for announcement

 

ScotGG

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Still unlikely that anything will be announced soon?

GBR process still ongoing. HMT may want to put off any approval for an order until it gets going in earnest. A handy way too to avoid making a decision. Interest rates are also still above the time when new train orders were plentiful during 2010s. Gov finances are pretty terrible as well so no direct orders?

Politically will gov want to approve an SE order before Northern? If HMT are reluctant to greenlight anything then they'd do the diesel order first for Northern for "the optics" and even then not willingly? Especially if Northern Powerhouse kicked into long grass again.
 

brad465

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350 vehicles is well too low; you couldn't even like-for-like replace all the BREL units with this. 640 however would provide 160x 4x car equivalents, which would replace the remaining 122x 465s and the 20-25x 466s still used. There would then be around 28x 4-car equivalent on top, which maybe enough to send 377s back to Southern. Or, if they increased the size a bit, you could replace all the 376s as well, which would allow metro routes to be DOO with no platform monitors and reduce the variety of fleets maintained/operated.

My prediction is the approved order will be around 500 carriages initially, enough to purely replace the Networkers like-for-like, with an optional increase to cover for replacing/cascading other units and/or coping with increased passenger demand.
 

ScotGG

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They may also be waiting to see how passengers numbers settle as we're still in a post-covid recovery.

Given a fair few networkers have now been stripped that should enable the existing to keep running for 5 years+? Then again it's mostly the ABBs withdrawn and the BRELs still running.
 

Snow1964

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They may also be waiting to see how passengers numbers settle as we're still in a post-covid recovery.
Have to draw a line on waiting at some point.

Of course if more than expected come back, might suddenly need to ramp up the service and need the trains in 2 years rather than 5 years.

The next ORR passenger numbers report is in months time (30 Oct) and annual station usage is usually Nov (date TBA), so that should give lot of clarity, especially when combined with recent ticket sale numbers
 

D365

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Given a fair few networkers have now been stripped that should enable the existing to keep running for 5 years+? Then again it's mostly the ABBs withdrawn and the BRELs still running.
Met-Camm I think you mean.
 

ScotGG

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Yep of course.

SE's internal data will more useful than the station figures which are nine months old by the time they're released. Already outdated if there's 5-10 per cent annual growth and when you have a thousand homes being built beside a station and starting to complete since early 2025 as is the case in places.

ORR would be up to summer?
 

brad465

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Something that's occurred to me, with Doncaster Wabtec winding down, will the MetCam units have to be withdrawn when the next C6s are otherwise due? I doubt anyone else will take on the work for what would probably only be 1-2 rounds of work per unit left. If this is the case, unless Southeastern can find other rolling stock somewhere, there could be a few years with a notable shortage while the replacement order (that still hasn't been confirmed), is delivered.
 

GEC465

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Something that's occurred to me, with Doncaster Wabtec winding down, will the MetCam units have to be withdrawn when the next C6s are otherwise due?
Either that or down to Eastleigh for works there
 

brad465

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465005 has been on the stops in The Wall siding at Victoria for quite a while now, and is daubed with a significant amount of graffiti.
2 months later and that unit is still there, albeit on its own (no idea where 178 currently is).
 

D365

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Something that's occurred to me, with Doncaster Wabtec winding down, will the MetCam units have to be withdrawn when the next C6s are otherwise due? I doubt anyone else will take on the work for what would probably only be 1-2 rounds of work per unit left.
If Wabtec can provide a workforce, there are other sites that would be able to make a road available.
 

frankmoh

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Something that's occurred to me, with Doncaster Wabtec winding down, will the MetCam units have to be withdrawn when the next C6s are otherwise due? I doubt anyone else will take on the work for what would probably only be 1-2 rounds of work per unit left. If this is the case, unless Southeastern can find other rolling stock somewhere, there could be a few years with a notable shortage while the replacement order (that still hasn't been confirmed), is delivered.
There's about 20 465/9s left right? How much of a deficit is losing 20 trains?

I always assumed the reason the 707s were put into service was because they needed a stopgap for the ever-decreasing number of /9s (and the train being nearly new was a bonus)
 

GEC465

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There's about 20 465/9s left right? How much of a deficit is losing 20 trains?

I always assumed the reason the 707s were put into service was because they needed a stopgap for the ever-decreasing number of /9s (and the train being nearly new was a bonus)
707s originally were brought in for capacity enhancement but ended up replacing 465/2s and some 466s. Losing the /9s would have a major impact on metro services
 

Phil R

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There's about 20 465/9s left right? How much of a deficit is losing 20 trains?

I always assumed the reason the 707s were put into service was because they needed a stopgap for the ever-decreasing number of /9s (and the train being nearly new was a bonus)
25 still in active service.
 

brad465

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707s originally were brought in for capacity enhancement but ended up replacing 465/2s and some 466s. Losing the /9s would have a major impact on metro services
I think some of the Networkers were going to be replaced regardless, but a lower number that still allowed a capacity enhancement. The stabling capacity didn't exist for all the 707s to arrive on top of everything else, and proposals at Chart Leacon weren't very substantial. However, as happened across a lot of operators, covid was an opportunity to bin off the most unreliable stuff - at least with Southeastern it was a "one in one out", something operators like GN and SWR didn't have the luxury of (although at SWR the 701 shambles was the main reason).

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: ==

Potential scrap drag pencilled in for Thursday:


== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: ==

EDIT: Drag cancelled today
 
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Jamesrob637

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Interesting it was un-cancelled: ran 2-3 hours late as a result. IIRC there are now 3x 466s and 4x 465/9s left at Ely.

Saw a cracking photo on Facebook of this drag. 423 looking the part. Mind you, when doesn't a 37 look the part in 2025?!
 

GEC465

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I'm guessing around 4-5 weeks left of white 376s now since there's 6 or 7 left
 

Platform 2

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Can anyone advise which 466s are still at Doncaster Works, and in particular I'd be grateful to know the identity of the one I saw as I passed through Doncaster station this afternoon. It was between the station and the works, towards the north end. Thanks.
 

Phil R

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Can anyone advise which 466s are still at Doncaster Works, and in particular I'd be grateful to know the identity of the one I saw as I passed through Doncaster station this afternoon. It was between the station and the works, towards the north end. Thanks.
Just 466016, which is the one you saw. Been there about four years now, stored as part of the initial downsizing of the fleet from 43 to 38 (the other 4 were at Worksop).
 
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