More Delay for HS2, and how should we proceed?

[The Planner]

Is it slipping or is it being told to slow down, my money is very much on the second.

 

[Jammy Dodger]

I think what the government say on HS2 is becoming increasingly irrelevant, any parts that are likely to be cancelled or deferred are not going to be starting construction in the remaining lifetime of this parliament so (if the polls are to be believed) what Labour thinks on the project is more important to the future of HS2 as if they win they can simply reverse any decisions taken now once in power.

What is Labour's official stance on HS2 (and HS3, given the amount of integration between the two in the initial planning phases)? Would I be correct in my presumption that they would reinstate both in full (i.e. HS2 east and the Goldborne link, as well as a full HS line for HS3)?

 

[MidlandMainlie]

What is Labour's official stance on HS2 (and HS3, given the amount of integration between the two in the initial planning phases)? Would I be correct in my presumption that they would reinstate both in full (i.e. HS2 east and the Goldborne link, as well as a full HS line for HS3)?

Kier Starmer said so in October 2021

https://www.yorkshirepost.co.uk/news/politics/labour-fully-committed-to-hs2-eastern-leg-says-keir-starmer-in-york-railway-station-visit-3426893

Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer has called for the Government to commit to building HS2 and ensure vital infrastructure is in place to boost the North’s beleagured rail network.

As has Shadow Transport secretary Louise Haigh at Labour’s conference last year

Haigh seeks nationalised rail plus 'full' NPR and HS2 - The Transport Network

www.transport-network.co.uk

Speaking at the Labour Conference in Liverpool, Louise Haigh (pictured) said her ‘number one priority’ as secretary of state would be to end what she called a ‘spiral of decline on our public transport system’.

She said: ‘Labour in power will bring our railways back into public ownership as contracts expire.’

Ms Haigh said that under the Conservatives, Britain’s railways ‘have become a cash machine for companies and foreign governments, adding: ‘No matter the performance, failure will always be rewarded.’

She said: 'The truth is, the Conservatives still worship the dogma that has let this country down. They will always give the operators one more chance. And shareholders one more pay-day. They will do whatever it takes to prop up a failed system. Because to do anything else would be to admit their ideology is wrong.

 

[JonathanH]

The way things are going we'll just get Phase 1 if we're lucky...

Such a move would mean it was completed before 2045, whilst still being incomplete.

 

[class26]

Not sure there are many benefits of the East Midlands Parkway branch and its already been kicked into the very long grass.

Until there is a change of government shortly ?

 

[brad465]

I'm in my late 20s and I'm starting to wonder if, were I to live to average life expectancy, it will actually operate in my lifetime.

 

[Brubulus]

If I wanted to reduce costs, I'd get construction on phase 2 beginning by end of next year, with the whole thing opening in the next decade. Delaying will never reduce costs as there's always inflation.

 

[MidlandMainlie]

Not sure there are many benefits of the East Midlands Parkway branch and its already been kicked into the very long grass.

One benefit from the link to EMP instead of Toton was that it could allow a Nottingham to Birmingham service to be run in 30 minutes via HS2 which is significantly faster than current service via Derby. If the Eastern arm is reinstated then hopefully a spur onto the Nottingham line will be included so that such a service could run in the future.

 

[greyman42]

More money is needed for the defence budget so something will have to give. Whether or not it is HS2 remains to be seen.

 

[The Planner]

If I wanted to reduce costs, I'd get construction on phase 2 beginning by end of next year, with the whole thing opening in the next decade. Delaying will never reduce costs as there's always inflation.

Slight issue with royal assent, notice to proceed, contractors and detailed design first.

 

[Tezza1978]

Kier Starmer said so in October 2021

https://www.yorkshirepost.co.uk/news/politics/labour-fully-committed-to-hs2-eastern-leg-says-keir-starmer-in-york-railway-station-visit-3426893

As has Shadow Transport secretary Louise Haigh at Labour’s conference last year

Haigh seeks nationalised rail plus 'full' NPR and HS2 - The Transport Network

www.transport-network.co.uk

Which is also why I think it will get built at least as far as Manc and with the East Midlands parkway station as a minimum.
Hunt and Sunak have now repeatedly committed to complete as far as 2b in full including Euston. Reneging on that now is politically VERY difficult and is against the whole levelling up agenda Sunak and Hunt are pushing. It would make the Red Wall Tories absolutely furious - the optics are appalling - and it would be embraced as an open goal by Labour who will quickly commit to it in full in the upcoming manifesto.

Besides most Tory MPs and ministers support it. Rabidly anti HS2 people like Esther McVey are noisy but dont represent the views of most Tory MPs

 

[Brubulus]

Slight issue with royal assent, notice to proceed, contractors and detailed design first.

Phase 2a already has royal accent and some contracts already given out. I'm sure 18 months to begin construction is possible of there was the political will for that section.

 

[Bonemaster]

The cost overruns in HS2 are sadly far too easy to have foreseen, to blame it on inflation is an easy to answer, but it needs to be said that the overspend is against 2019 prices, so backs out inflation.

The blame for this catastrophe sits in the original costings, where land costs were underestimated, the amount of work on ground conditions was under estimated, and construction costs under estimated, as the self fulfilling construction industry inflation from a major infrastructure project was never in the budget. Far too much emphasis was on if we get construction costs wrong there is a large contingency.

The cost benefit analysis has dropped from £1.80 - £2.50 originally to less than 90p, as the project has been pruned, and costs have spiralled out of control, and the post pandemic world has lowered the benefits of the time saved.

We are now in sunk cost fallacy territory, and HS2s future looks even more ominous given that the Conservatives may make a play to defend the blue wall from too much damage at the next election, never mind the anger of the red wall.

 

[GRALISTAIR]

Is it slipping or is it being told to slow down, my money is very much on the second.

Mine too!

 

[12LDA28C]

If this is true, surely it's the very definition of short-termism and should be treated with the contempt it deserves. HS2 is already years behind original schedule with the associated increase in budget those delays have caused, mainly due to constant reviews over its necessity / value for money demanded by the naysayers. Just get the thing built ASAP.

 

[HSTEd]

The blame for this catastrophe sits in the original costings, where land costs were underestimated, the amount of work on ground conditions was under estimated, and construction costs under estimated, as the self fulfilling construction industry inflation from a major infrastructure project was never in the budget. Far too much emphasis was on if we get construction costs wrong there is a large contingency.

I do wonder what would happen if you re-ran the design optimisation with more realistic costs.

It seems likely that the entire project plan is junk given the massive and continuous escalations in cost.

 

[158756]

Which would be genuinely disappointing. Sure, we are in a crisis (both socially and financially), however to get out of said crisis requires motivation and investment. An example of this is the Hoover Dam, which helped save the US from the great depression, and putting it on track to be the economic powerhouse it is today.

The costs of HS2 have risen so far and the benefits fallen so far that the future prosperity of the country would be better served by having the contractors pack up and go home rather than finish the project.

The costs are completely out of control (in common with everything else railway-related) and these cuts are the inevitable result. If the government want to invest in the future of this country, the lessons of the last decade show that rail is absolutely not the way to go.

 

[Roast Veg]

I do wonder what would happen if you re-ran the design optimisation with more realistic costs.

It seems likely that the entire project plan is junk given the massive and continuous escalations in cost.

How do you propose that we avoid consultants taking the public sector for a ride in future?

 

[12LDA28C]

The costs of HS2 have risen so far and the benefits fallen so far that the future prosperity of the country would be better served by having the contractors pack up and go home rather than finish the project.

The costs are completely out of control (in common with everything else railway-related) and these cuts are the inevitable result. If the government want to invest in the future of this country, the lessons of the last decade show that rail is absolutely not the way to go.

Huh? So you're saying that Rail as an industry and a relatively environmentally-friendly way of transporting goods and people is not worthy of investment? How bizarre.

 

[Nottingham59]

If the Eastern arm is reinstated then hopefully a spur onto the Nottingham line will be included so that such a service could run in the future.

The IRP talks glibly about having to grade separate HS2-Nottm flows from Nottm-Derby flows, but I don't think that's practical within the existing Trent triangle, without severing the low-level connection to Toton.

But given the cost-saving imperative, I expect that DfT will just try leave everything north of Parkway as it is now, so Trent will become an great bottleneck on the whole Eastern Leg. If they ever build it at all.

 

[Bonemaster]

How do you propose that we avoid consultants taking the public sector for a ride in future?

When the question is we want to do this project, give us the costs and the benefits that give a Cost Benefit Ratio of greater than 2, and skilfully avoid any consultants who will give an answer less, its as more of a political problem, than one of contractors taking the UK for a ride.

HS2 always has and always will be primarily a political project first, and a railway project a very long way behind.

 

[Grimsby town]

The costs of HS2 have risen so far and the benefits fallen so far that the future prosperity of the country would be better served by having the contractors pack up and go home rather than finish the project.

The costs are completely out of control (in common with everything else railway-related) and these cuts are the inevitable result. If the government want to invest in the future of this country, the lessons of the last decade show that rail is absolutely not the way to go.

But you don't learn lessons by cancelling projects. In fact that's part of the reason costs are spiralling. Rail infrastructure in this country is stop start that lessons learnt are forgotten and skilled staff pack up and move abroad or to a different industry. I've seem this happen myself with electrification staff moving to Australia.

If HS2 is cancelled we need to find something else to replace it. That means more studies and consultations while not building anything. The project needs to carry on and seen through yo the end.

 

[Roast Veg]

When the question is we want to do this project, give us the costs and the benefits that give a Cost Benefit Ratio of greater than 2, and skilfully avoid any consultants who will give an answer less, its as more of a political problem, than one of contractors taking the UK for a ride.

Except that when the bidding for HS2 happened, we had a better BCR. Now that BCR has evaporated, and the consultants are asking for further funding. I'll ask again - how can you avoid it?

 

[The Planner]

Phase 2a already has royal accent and some contracts already given out. I'm sure 18 months to begin construction is possible of there was the political will for that section.

Based on Phase 1, I really doubt that.

 

[Mikey C]

I can understand the logic of slowing down expenditure that might happen in the next 5 years, if cash is tight (which it is).

But surely the main expenditure for the remains of the eastern leg is way in the future anyway, so why make politically damaging decisions now which don't have to be made?

 

[zwk500]

I can understand the logic of slowing down expenditure that might happen in the next 5 years, if cash is tight (which it is).

But surely the main expenditure for the remains of the eastern leg is way in the future anyway, so why make politically damaging decisions now which don't have to be made?

Because they know the damage is done for the next election, so may as well get the pain over in one big go and move on.

 

[Mikey C]

Because they know the damage is done for the next election, so may as well get the pain over in one big go and move on.

But surely bad news will just cost them votes and make it even less likely they'll win again?

Why make unpopular decisions now instead of leaving them to the next government, especially if it's Labour?

 

[zwk500]

But surely bad news will just cost them votes and make it even less likely they'll win again?

No, people have short memories.

Why make unpopular decisions now instead of leaving them to the next government, especially if it's Labour?

Because they can then accuse Labour of being financially irresponsible by spending lots of money on a vastly expensive boondoggle the country neither needs nor can afford. (And yes, they will conveniently forget everything they've said before on the issue to score a point. They've done it so many times before.)

 

[GRALISTAIR]

The sooner it is built, the sooner we can pull in revenue.

 

[Mikey C]

No, people have short memories.

I doubt voters in the East Midlands would forget if the link to East Midlands Parkway was cancelled or seriously delayed before the election. Lots of Tory seats around there