More Delay for HS2, and how should we proceed?

[JonathanH]

Political egg on face.

Depends who they are looking to appeal to. I suspect the average person (not contributors to this forum) are now looking at HS2 and being past caring, writing it off as a bad job.

For what it is worth, I think this is a shame, but it does appear that it will be scaled back so much now.

No - HS2 will not be a Labour priority

It would do the Labour Party a big favour if the project was canned before they are in power.

 

[Tezza1978]

Why? If a decision maker is told that will save money, they may well make that decision.

Running it at 100mph might "save money" but it makes the whole rasion d'etre of the project null and void. And a laughing stock. 125mph mean it can't even be called "HS2" any more!!

Disagree that the public want it cancelled. There is also a fiction peddled by the right wing press that we should "spend the HS2 money on the NHS/the homeless/building more motorways (!!)

If people believe that would happen then I've got a bus with a some slogans on and some magic beans to sell them...

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 7 Feb 2023 ==

It would do the Labour Party a big favour if the project was canned before they are in power

Phase 1 has a huge amount of work completed and 2a has Royal assent and contracts signed.

Do you think Starmer is going to go "yes Sunak we agree let's can the whole thing" Politically impossible for Labour the party and the press would tear him to pieces.

It's not just about "a railway line" it's about the whole North vs South, investment, levelling up. Etc. London gets Crossrail which is proving to be a huge success and Starmer willingly abandons HS2 and Northern Powerhouse Rail? Not happening.

 

[Brooke]

It's not just about "a railway line" it's about the whole North vs South, investment, levelling up. Etc. London gets Crossrail which is proving to be a huge success and Starmer willingly abandons HS2 and Northern Powerhouse Rail? Not happening.

But all of that is irrelevant if it only goes to Birmingham, and slowly?

Hence either do it properly or don’t do it all in my view.

How on earth can what is being leaked / trailed now have any sort of positive business case? Who on earth is it meant to be for?

 

[Skie]

I can see the palatable thing being to scrap phase 2b (with it's odd dogleg tunnels into Manchester via the airport being a prime example of no prior thought being given to anything but serving London) and instead pump the 'savings' into a proper Liverpool to York NPR route that also links into the WCML (or a bit of HS2 north of Crewe). Serves Manchester better, and actually gives Liverpool and other areas an improvement on HS2/IPR

 

[Xavi]

More lies from Berkeley only days after the false Euston story.

 

[MidlandMainlie]

It would do the Labour Party a big favour if the project was canned before they are in power.

How they have repeatedly backed delivering the project in full and benefits Labour strongholds in Manchester, Sheffield, Leeds and the North East.

Do you think Starmer is going to go "yes Sunak we agree let's can the whole thing" Politically impossible for Labour the party and the press would tear him to pieces.

It's not just about "a railway line" it's about the whole North vs South, investment, levelling up. Etc. London gets Crossrail which is proving to be a huge success and Starmer willingly abandons HS2 and Northern Powerhouse Rail? Not happening.

Indeed, the idea that Starmer is going so say to his MP’s in the North that they are not going to build HS2 or NPR is for the birds.

 

[Tezza1978]

But all of that is irrelevant if it only goes to Birmingham, and slowly?

Hence either do it properly or don’t do it all in my view.

How on earth can what is being leaked / trailed now have any sort of positive business case? Who on earth is it meant to be for?

But it isnt going to be "just to Birmingham".

Can you imagine the political storm if that was announced and Northern Powerhouse rail permanently scrapped? The Tories would never win a Northern seat again. Like I say its not just the railway line. It's what it represents North v South politically.

I can't see "South East rail upgrades and motorway improvements" washing as an alternative policy with Northern voters?

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 7 Feb 2023 ==

I can see the palatable thing being to scrap phase 2b (with it's odd dogleg tunnels into Manchester via the airport being a prime example of no prior thought being given to anything but serving London) and instead pump the 'savings' into a proper Liverpool to York NPR route that also links into the WCML (or a bit of HS2 north of Crewe). Serves Manchester better, and actually gives Liverpool and other areas an improvement on HS2/IPR

Agree that NPR rail needs to be built but scrapping 2b in favour of more consultations, more route arguments and more legal cases and judicial reviews just will not wash politically.

Far easier to get NPR progressed once shovels/diggers in the ground for 2b

 

[Richardr]

What is the cost saving today of planning to run half the number of trains?

 

[ABB125]

What is the cost saving today of planning to run half the number of trains?

Essentially zero, because the money hasn't been spent yet.

The claimed money "saving" will come from the train fleet being reduced by at least a third, and probably a much smaller Euston station (without a grade-separated throat). However, that saving won't come into effect for at least 5 years, so is useless in the current climate.

There will also be reduced operational costs, but that is (well, should be considered to be!) negligible in the grand scheme of things.

 

[class26]

Scrap it!

and waste squillions alreadty spent ? Great idea (not)

 

[Brooke]

Essentially zero, because the money hasn't been spent yet.

The claimed money "saving" will come from the train fleet being reduced by at least a third, and probably a much smaller Euston station (without a grade-separated throat). However, that saving won't come into effect for at least 5 years, so is useless in the current climate.

There will also be reduced operational costs, but that is (well, should be considered to be!) negligible in the grand scheme of things.

And so the majority of the cost savings are one-time cost avoidance, while the lost benefits recur in perpetuity (in reality, even if not in the business case).

So more chopping like this is just accounting stupidity in my view, there is no actual gain for the economy or society.

In my company we say “you can never cost-cut to growth”, which is what government is trying to make-believe here.

 

[fishwomp]

And so the majority of the cost savings are one-time cost avoidance, while the lost benefits recur in perpetuity (in reality, even if not in the business case).
[..]

Not really - if you are borrowing to spend, you have to pay it back or perpetually pay interest. If the Cost-Benefit ratio is also < 1.. the lost benefits are not worth the cost..

 

[MidlandMainlie]

And so the majority of the cost savings are one-time cost avoidance, while the lost benefits recur in perpetuity (in reality, even if not in the business case).

So more chopping like this is just accounting stupidity in my view, there is no actual gain for the economy or society.

In my company we say “you can never cost-cut to growth”, which is what government is trying to make-believe here.

Have to agree, without wanting to go too far off topic the Treasury has become the biggest barrier to growth in this country. It has an important role in keeping public spending under control but has become too focused on short term spending at the expense in long term investment to keep the UK competitive with other countries. I can see an incoming government with decent majority wanting to break it up and spread it across the country.

 

[Purple Train]

I can smell salami.

The government seems to be wallowing in this "all about getting to Brum 20 minutes quicker" nonsense.

 

[Brooke]

If the Cost-Benefit ratio is also < 1.. the lost benefits are not worth the cost..

That seems to be the implication doesn’t it? That the CBR has now reached a point where there is no chance to be >1, hence we might as well just chop costs.

An alternate approach could have been the other extreme of “all in” for max benefit as fast as possible. This generally minimises the costs and maximises the scale up of the benefits in the benefits horizon (but creates a deep cash-out initially).

This is generally what my company has learned to do: we invest millions in trying to learn how to get things to market faster & faster and on a massive scale. This way we take all the cost of delay and indecision off the table; so just going fast has an inherent benefit.

Sadly this road was not taken at the outset & so I fear the thing is destined to be in a prolonged agony of scope cuts forever, chasing some mythical CBR >1, which can never be re-found.

 

[Nicholas Lewis]

Well at least aArk Harper said at tonights Bradshaw address in respect of HS2

The largest single investment ever made in our railways will take HS2 from Euston to Manchester. Northern Powerhouse Rail across the Pennines. East West Rail between Oxford and Cambridge. And that has the Chancellor’s full support.

We’re not wasting any time. In December, I saw the huge construction effort underway at the site of Curzon St Station in Birmingham. It will be the first new intercity terminus built since the 19th century. Attracting tens of thousands of jobs and sparking housing and commercial regeneration across the city. Don’t take my word for it go and talk to Andy Street and you’ll get a very passionate case about the transformation that HS2 is bringing to his city.

https://www.gov.uk/government/speeches/george-bradshaw-address-2023

 

[Rail Ranger]

"Northern Powerhouse Rail" could just mean the upgrade of the existing Trans-Pennine route.

 

[Tezza1978]

Well at least aArk Harper said at tonights Bradshaw address in respect of HS2



https://www.gov.uk/government/speeches/george-bradshaw-address-2023

Well thats something. I still don't understand that some are utterly 100% convinced that its going to be an Old Oak Common to Birmingham line - nope. (quite apart from the fact that we have a general election in probably less than 18 months that its unlikely the Tories will win!!)

 

[Nicholas Lewis]

"Northern Powerhouse Rail" could just mean the upgrade of the existing Trans-Pennine route.

He pretty well said they are only delivering the original IRP that was published not the Truss wish list that went the way of anything associated with her time in office.

 

[Howardh]

"Northern Powerhouse Rail" could just mean the upgrade of the existing Trans-Pennine route.

Just having some trains on it would be an upgrade for me!

 

[Giugiaro]

So why not just cancel it altogether and write off the costs?

Just like the Tories did back in 2011.

Sorry. Just like the Right-wing coalition did in Portugal back in 2011!!!

 

[brad465]

Have to agree, without wanting to go too far off topic the Treasury has become the biggest barrier to growth in this country. It has an important role in keeping public spending under control but has become too focused on short term spending at the expense in long term investment to keep the UK competitive with other countries. I can see an incoming government with decent majority wanting to break it up and spread it across the country.

One thing Truss got right was the need to do something about the Treasury, but her planned reforms and delivery of it were going to be a disaster.

You'd think the Treasury would see more return in HS2 or another big infrastructure project than all the covid support they allowed the Chancellor to announce.

 

[Parjon]

One thing Truss got right was the need to do something about the Treasury, but her planned reforms and delivery of it were going to be a disaster.

You'd think the Treasury would see more return in HS2 or another big infrastructure project than all the covid support they allowed the Chancellor to announce.

They make the best decisions when they don't have any choice, it seems.

A big part of the problem is that the UK government staff (of which HS2 are part of) seem to be much better at compiling business cases that get through treasury gateway than they are at actually delivering those business cases.

 

[HSTEd]

How do you propose that we avoid consultants taking the public sector for a ride in future?

Myself I would propose the creation of a UK equivalent of the civil engineering side of the US Army Corps of Engineers.

Maintaining a staff of the appropriate experts would be expensive, but affordable if we could line them up onto a constant pipeline of projects of various types.

And as they would always have more work in the future they would avoid the temptation of consultancies to drag things out to get more money since there is no guarantee there will be another contract.

 

[lakeland844]

Just like the Tories did back in 2011.

Sorry. Just like the Right-wing coalition did in Portugal back in 2011!!!

I'm sorry but when the Channel Tunnel opened in the 1990s we in the North were promised direct trains to Europe ! Did it ever happen ? NO !
Went to London a couple of years back and saw the massive investment in new infrastructure and modern rolling stock when we in the North were still bouncing about on 30 year old Pacer units ! Huge amounts of cash spent since on Crossrail which I applaud as a success but why this objection to the North seeking a better part of the future investment ? HS 2 should go to Leeds or even Newcastle and beyond ? We all pay the same taxes !!!

 

[daodao]

HS2 has become a classic boondoggle, and with the major deterioration in the UK economy in the last 12 months, who knows what the future will bring for it.

 

[D365]

Can you imagine the political storm if that was announced and Northern Powerhouse rail permanently scrapped? The Tories would never win a Northern seat again.

I wouldn't be so confident. Short memories.

A big part of the problem is that the UK government staff (of which HS2 are part of) seem to be much better at compiling business cases that get through treasury gateway than they are at actually delivering those business cases.

Wishing I could find a way to disagree with this comment... I can't.

Further to @HSTEd's post above, I will create a speculative discussion.

 

[MisterSheeps]

to get out of said crisis requires motivation and investment. An example of this is the Hoover Dam, which helped save the US from the great depression, and putting it on track to be the economic powerhouse it is today

the benefits of the Hoover Dam, and other US infrastructure projects of the depression era were not realised fully until the 1960s. Britain has only 2 examples of this : Victorian railway mania, and the NoSHEB (Scottish hydro electric provision post WW2)

The rolling stock procurement can be reduced to Pendolino replacement.

is there any reason why anything cannot run along HS2, given suitable signalling?

allow a Nottingham to Birmingham service to be run in 30 minutes via HS2 which is significantly faster than current service via Derby

I don't see much of a market for that, compared to running NE - SW services via Erewash Valley ... is the MML going to be electrified?

it's the very definition of short-termism

is what Britain does best c.f. HS1 & Chunnel never fulfilling expectations, and leaving Europe. You need a command economy with a half life way more than 5 years (Parliament term), which is what Roosevelt had.

primarily a political project

to suck economic resources out of the north to better help London and SE now London is not financial capital of Europe.

It is a vanity project. Better to electrify main lines. After the TGV building, many secondary lines in France closed. Better to maintain what we have, but politicians do not find, or adequately fund, maintenance, because "we are maintaining" is not the sexy vote winner that "we are going to ..." is.

 

[MidlandMainlie]

I don't see much of a market for that, compared to running NE - SW services via Erewash Valley ... is the MML going to be electrified?

The MML should be fully electrified by the time a Birmingham-East Midlands branch of HS2 is built (assuming the government doesn’t cut back on that again too).

The rail journey between Nottingham and Birmingham is quite slow via Derby (1 hour 10 mins to 1 hour 26mins this morning) vs driving via the A453 - M1 - M42, (assuming traffic isn’t too bad) A direct Nottingham to Birmingham via HS2 East would be much quicker at about 30 mins from the IRP)

 

[MisterSheeps]

The rail journey between Nottingham and Birmingham is quite slow via Derby

I used to live in Nottingham, agree, am old enough to remember the Chadderton route which avoided reversal. EMR used to run a Burton - London via Castle Donington which seems a better idea now. Going via Nuneaton was like riding a snail, especially W of Nuneaton (mining subsidence)