Speculation on West Midlands Fleet Plans

[ChrisHogan]

If the 350/4s are joining that's at least a total of 325 electric carriages joining the fleet. (The DfT release said over 100 for cross city.) The 323s make 78 carriages, surely some other electric trains are leaving otherwise that's the equivalent of them receiving over 60 extra 350s just for extra capacity.

Emus are needed in the West Midlands for the December 2018 improvements - Bromsgrove, Rugeley and Crewe via Stoke extensions. (Probably seven more units). The 350/4s will create an internal cascade to provide for these services. Perhaps use them on the Birmingham-Liverpool services?

A sub-fleet of 350s in WMBU livery will be needed at some point for the other Birmingham area local services after the 323s are replaced on CrossCity. It may be that the 350/2s will go when all the new WCBU emus arrive.

 

[Old Hill Bank]

Dear all I have edited my post to include the 319s (my error, it is in the info I have received). There is no mention of the 350/2s going so one can only assume they are for the non cross city WM routes like Chase and Wolves, maybe the Tring stoppers and other odd jobs like the Abbey Line.

 

[Hophead]

From the DfT press release:

"New trains will be arriving in the north-west on the Liverpool to Birmingham line, which passes through Crewe and Winsford. These are longer and have more seats for passengers than the existing trains."​

I had thought these might be the ex-Heathrow Connect units but, in view of the previous comments, should we conclude that this service will effectively be covered by the 350/4s in 8-car formations?

 

[Bletchleyite]

From the DfT press release:

"New trains will be arriving in the north-west on the Liverpool to Birmingham line, which passes through Crewe and Winsford. These are longer and have more seats for passengers than the existing trains."​

I had thought these might be the ex-Heathrow Connect units but, in view of the previous comments, should we conclude that this service will effectively be covered by the 350/4s in 8-car formations?

I would expect actual new-build for this and for the Crewe services long-term, though 350/4s may provide an interim solution.

 

[AverageTD]

The plans are very basic because I have no clue of fleet numbers but here would be my plans

The 150s, 153s, 321s and 319s would go up to Northern to temporarily to replace the pacers whilst new trains are built. I don't know but I'm guessing this would be easier due to abellio owning both companies.

323s, 350s, 170s and 139s would stay and new trains would replace the stock moved to northern. This could solve NRs pacer problem and give newer stock to London Midland

Apologies to anything that wouldn't work. As I said I don't know the numbers so this is just done by train classes

 

[507021]

The plans are very basic because I have no clue of fleet numbers but here would be my plans

The 150s, 153s, 321s and 319s would go up to Northern to temporarily to replace the pacers whilst new trains are built. I don't know but I'm guessing this would be easier due to abellio owning both companies.

323s, 350s, 170s and 139s would stay and new trains would replace the stock moved to northern. This could solve NRs pacer problem and give newer stock to London Midland

Apologies to anything that wouldn't work. As I said I don't know the numbers so this is just done by train classes

London Midland don't have any Class 321s any more, they were replaced by the Class 319s.

 

[Agent_Squash]

Northern need units that are equivalent in performance to 170s. Furthermore, 153s are difficult to modify to PRM. Does LM really need constant deliveries of new stock?

 

[sd0733]

The plans are very basic because I have no clue of fleet numbers but here would be my plans

The 150s, 153s, 321s and 319s would go up to Northern to temporarily to replace the pacers whilst new trains are built. I don't know but I'm guessing this would be easier due to abellio owning both companies.

323s, 350s, 170s and 139s would stay and new trains would replace the stock moved to northern. This could solve NRs pacer problem and give newer stock to London Midland

Apologies to anything that wouldn't work. As I said I don't know the numbers so this is just done by train classes

Also the 150s are going to Northern anyway, that was always planned for the old franchise too. Some Gwr 153s, (the ones still in blue as well as 325/333 coming back I presume) are heading for LM eventually so that the 150s can be released. By the time the new stock arrives most if not all the Northern 153s will have gone anyway so they're not going to want those.

And northern is arriva not Abellio operated now

 

[HLE]

It's interesting that a second LM 153 has received a refresh internally and underneath. To be honest they've done a good job on them both. Anyone else on here know what I'm on about yet?

if they have nowhere to go if Abellio do decide to replace them will it have been for nothing but a short term measure. It can't be argued that it was desperately needed, especially if you compare them to other operators 153's before the refresh.

 

[bnsf734]

Govia have an obligation to return their rolling stock in a certain condition at the end of the franchise, which isn't for a few months yet anyway. Therefore they still have to maintain the fleet. I saw a 153 at Nuneaton on Friday which had a lot of new shiny parts on the underframe and bogies.
I think it was 153365 - is that one of them?

Perhaps now they know they are losing the franchise no more interior refreshes will take place (not much point really as the interiors will probably get changed again under Abellio!).

 

[sd0733]

The underside parts will be nothing to do with a refresh that will just be a scheduled overhaul, c4 I believe it is for below sole bar.
Afaik the interiors are just having a respray to get rid of that awful brown colour. The EMT ones seem infinitely nicer and the only real difference is theirs were repainted inside at the refurb stage. There was a memo at work about getting quotes for the job a few weeks ago so presumably someone passed it and the works starting. Presumably 325 and 333 will be done when they Come back. The rest of the Gw ones are fairly recently done anyway. That brown makes it look as if it's hard years of heavy smoking in their, it really dates them so will be good when it's gone to get them through a couple of years.

 

[Bletchleyite]

What colour have they been sprayed? Hopefully white, some sort of magnolia or grey? The blue used by GWR and Northern makes them feel horribly stark, unwelcoming and cold.

 

[ChrisHogan]

Does LM really need constant deliveries of new stock?

Yes, not necessarily new but anything with seats. Virtually every route needs extra capacity.

 

[Old Hill Bank]

Northern need units that are equivalent in performance to 170s. Furthermore, 153s are difficult to modify to PRM. Does LM really need constant deliveries of new stock?

There will be plenty of 170 on the market. Please see post 118 in this thread.

 

[HLE]

Govia have an obligation to return their rolling stock in a certain condition at the end of the franchise, which isn't for a few months yet anyway. Therefore they still have to maintain the fleet. I saw a 153 at Nuneaton on Friday which had a lot of new shiny parts on the underframe and bogies.
I think it was 153365 - is that one of them?

Perhaps now they know they are losing the franchise no more interior refreshes will take place (not much point really as the interiors will probably get changed again under Abellio!).

Yep spot on, 365 is the second one to be done after 334

It's arguably a full refurb minus new chair covers and carpets although both have been steam cleaned.

For PRM mods, lock the 153 toilets OOU permanently.

 

[HLE]

What colour have they been sprayed? Hopefully white, some sort of magnolia or grey? The blue used by GWR and Northern makes them feel horribly stark, unwelcoming and cold.

Matt white.

Including some of the cab switches. Doors on the inside have been sprayed grey.
Someone has gone beserk with a spray can, and sprayed every part they could.

 

[northwichcat]

Yes, not necessarily new but anything with seats. Virtually every route needs extra capacity.

That was also the case with Northern but DfT took the view they should take on all available 15xs and 17xs and only order new DMUs to meet the shortfall.

 

[ChrisHogan]

That was also the case with Northern but DfT took the view they should take on all available 15xs and 17xs and only order new DMUs to meet the shortfall.

Not sure where WM would get 80 dmu vehicles in 2020 without ordering new. The unwanted 185s from TPE seems the only option but there are only 66 (?) of them and they are probably too expensive for the WMBU.

 

[td97]

Not sure where WM would get 80 dmu vehicles in 2020 without ordering new. The unwanted 185s from TPE seems the only option but there are only 66 (?) of them and they are probably too expensive for the WMBU.

There are 51. TPE are keeping around 30, and there are rumours they may keep them all to increase capacity, especially if they take over Liverpool -> Nottingham when the EMT franchise is up for renewal. Even if they don't they could keep them all to increase capacity. And Northern are promised 18 additional diesel trains by 2022, which are unlikely to be brand new.

 

[43096]

There are 51. TPE are keeping around 30, and there are rumours they may keep them all to increase capacity, especially if they take over Liverpool -> Nottingham when the EMT franchise is up for renewal. Even if they don't they could keep them all to increase capacity. And Northern are promised 18 additional diesel trains by 2022, which are unlikely to be brand new.

The 66 number is correct - it is 66 vehicles. 51 sets, of which TPE retain 29, leaving 22 sets (66 vehicles) for use elsewhere.

 

[northwichcat]

Not sure where WM would get 80 dmu vehicles in 2020 without ordering new. The unwanted 185s from TPE seems the only option but there are only 66 (?) of them and they are probably too expensive for the WMBU.

Anglia? 156s and 170s being released from the franchise in 2019.

 

[northwichcat]

And Northern are promised 18 additional diesel trains by 2022, which are unlikely to be brand new.

The franchise agreement says 170s or equivalents, which suggests if they can get 18 x 170s then that will be the preferred option. They also ideally want 2 car sets not 3 car sets, presumably so they can run doubled up on routes which won't take 5/6 cars.

 

[Old Hill Bank]

The franchise agreement says 170s or equivalents, which suggests if they can get 18 x 170s then that will be the preferred option. They also ideally want 2 car sets not 3 car sets, presumably so they can run doubled up on routes which won't take 5/6 cars.

That suggests the 17 2-car 170s from West Midlands then.

 

[Bevan Price]

No idea but I haven't seen them on the fast line services ever.

350/2 still only 100 mph, and far too many of them on the Liverpool / Birmingham services (around 75%) with their 2+3 seating.

 

[northwichcat]

Roger Ford's analysis of the rolling stock changes has been posted on wnxx (login required to view it.) He's saying the 170s will stay and the 350/2s will leave with the /4s not joining the fleet. He's also got 26 x 4 car EMUs replacing the 323s and 45 x 5 car EMUs replacing the 350/2s and 319s.

 

[Old Hill Bank]

Roger Ford's analysis of the rolling stock changes has been posted on wnxx (login required to view it.) He's saying the 170s will stay and the 350/2s will leave with the /4s not joining the fleet. He's also got 26 x 4 car EMUs replacing the 323s and 45 x 5 car EMUs replacing the 350/2s and 319s.

My info came from Abellio on Monday, where did his come from?

 

[northwichcat]

My info came from Abellio on Monday, where did his come from?

I'm not sure but it does have a caveat that the 26 x 4 car EMUs to replace 26 x 3 car 323s is an educated guess based on the number of carriages quoted.

We know that there was a requirement to increase the fleet size by at least 137 carriages.

Roger has 692 carriages after the new trains are in service compared to 551 at the start so a difference of 141 so his figures meet that requirement. (Before anyone says his figures say 690 carriages he's ignored the 139s in both the current and future fleets.)

You appear to have 172 carriages leaving the fleet, 48 cascaded carriages joining the fleet, D-Trains joining the fleet for one route only (presumably 2 car formations) as well as the new build- at least 400 carriages. So by my reckoning you have at least 833 carriages after the new build and cascades. That's 282 additional carriages compared to the 137 minimum requirement but very few of the additional carriages will be additional carriages which can be used on non-electrified routes.

Like I've already said earlier in the thread the thing that makes me question your figures you've heard is how many additional EMU carriages it implies. While I accept many electric services will be lengthened and there will be additional services it still sounds like a lot.

 

[Old Hill Bank]

I'm not sure but it does have a caveat that the 26 x 4 car EMUs to replace 26 x 3 car 323s is an educated guess based on the number of carriages quoted.

We know that there was a requirement to increase the fleet size by at least 137 carriages.

Roger has 692 carriages after the new trains are in service compared to 551 at the start so a difference of 141 so his figures meet that requirement. (Before anyone says his figures say 690 carriages he's ignored the 139s in both the current and future fleets.)

You appear to have 172 carriages leaving the fleet, 48 cascaded carriages joining the fleet, D-Trains joining the fleet for one route only (presumably 2 car formations) as well as the new build- at least 400 carriages. So by my reckoning you have at least 833 carriages after the new build and cascades. That's 282 additional carriages compared to the 137 minimum requirement but very few of the additional carriages will be additional carriages which can be used on non-electrified routes.

Like I've already said earlier in the thread the thing that makes me question your figures you've heard is how many additional EMU carriages it implies. While I accept many electric services will be lengthened and there will be additional services it still sounds like a lot.

To repeat my earlier post.

"Do not know the timescales but 150, 153, 170, 319 and 323 all leaving. Coming in are 172/0, 350/4 and the new build plus 230s for Marston Vale. This is all subject to events in other parts of the network!"

So no 172s are leaving, sixteen additional 172s are coming in,. With the 80 new that is a sensible net gain on the DMU front. How the new fleet is to be deployed, both EMU and DMU is yet to be divulged.

 

[northwichcat]

To repeat my earlier post.

"Do not know the timescales but 150, 153, 170, 319 and 323 all leaving. Coming in are 172/0, 350/4 and the new build plus 230s for Marston Vale. This is all subject to events in other parts of the network!"

So no 172s are leaving, sixteen additional 172s are coming in,. With the 80 new that is a sensible net gain on the DMU front. How the new fleet is to be deployed, both EMU and DMU is yet to be divulged.

I did a slight miscalculation and counted the extra 172s as 8 carriages instead of 16, so it'll be a total of at least 841 carriages rather than 833.

However, something doesn't quite add up about getting rid of the 170s (52 carriages) and bringing in 80 new carriages for the Snow Hill lines when there's 32 class 170 carriages off-lease in 2019/2020, especially given it would imply the 172s would replace the 170s on longer routes when they have a commuter style internal layout.

 

[Old Hill Bank]

Here are the DMU numbers before and after:-

139 2 - 2
150/1 6 - 0
153 8 - 0
170/5 34 - 0
170/6 18 - 0
172/0 0 - 16
172/2 24 - 24
172/3 45 - 45
230 0 - 4/6
New 0 - 80
Total 137 - 171/173

The EMU stuff I do not understand, need more facts not speculation.