InterCity West Coast Bidders

[Bletchleyite]

In the UK, only Eurostar and Govia (HS1) I believe.

Wouldn't want either of those within a thousand miles of it.

 

[Mordac]

The West Coast Partnership Expression of Interest competition has started.
Applicants have until 24 April 2017 to qualify for the short list.
https://www.gov.uk/government/publi...petition-expression-of-interest-documentation

The meat is in the EoI document, p18 (Further Technical Questions).
I can't seem to copy the paragraph concerned, but applicants have to demonstrate experience of High Speed Rail (250km/h or above) over the past 10 years (construction, service introduction, train procurement, change management, TSIs).

Hands up who qualifies for that.
In the UK, only Eurostar and Govia (HS1) I believe.
Somehow I can't see Govia being involved in HS2 (except maybe the Keolis part).
First Group and Virgin/Stagecoach will have to partner with an EU state railway if they are going to bid.
I suppose Arriva and Abellio could bid with their parent's credentials (DB and NS).
Then there's Japan and China.

I don't think NS operates any high speed services, in fact their attempt to do so was disastrous.

The UK groups can partner with Japanese railways too, not just an EU railway. Interested to see what comes of it. A Virgin partnership with a Shinkansen operator would be great!

 

[All Line Rover]

A Virgin partnership with a Shinkansen operator would be great!

Don't raise our expectations too high...

 

[HSTEd]

And so the so called free market devolves into an oligopoly where only the established players get to compete to decide which of them will get to bleed the public sector dry this time around!

 

[adrock1976]

I don't think NS operates any high speed services, in fact their attempt to do so was disastrous.

The UK groups can partner with Japanese railways too, not just an EU railway. Interested to see what comes of it. A Virgin partnership with a Shinkansen operator would be great!

Virgin Trains East Coast seem to be out of the starting blocks brand wise, as they have named the new Intercity trains "Azuma", derived from the Japanese meaning East.

How that would translate into the present Expession of Interest I do not know.

 

[JP]

Is this restricted to those firms with a PQQ passport, even if in a joint venture, to qualify for the 250km/h running requirement? Could someone with a PQQ passport go into a JV with, say, NTV, who run the Italo trains in Italy despite NTV not having a PQQ passport?

Trenitalia is on there but haven't bid for anything as far as I know, but they do run high speed trains. Maybe that's why they applied.

 

[LNW-GW Joint]

Is this restricted to those firms with a PQQ passport, even if in a joint venture, to qualify for the 250km/h running requirement? Could someone with a PQQ passport go into a JV with, say, NTV, who run the Italo trains in Italy despite NTV not having a PQQ passport?

Trenitalia is on there but haven't bid for anything as far as I know, but they do run high speed trains. Maybe that's why they applied.

Firms can apply for a passport as part of the EoI process, so it is not limited to the current passport holders.
A new consortium would have to get its own passport as part of the WCP EoI process.

I'm not sure how NTV stacks up as an operator compared to the majors.
HS1 had a strong French bias (it's basically an LGV with a UK flavour), so Keolis (SNCF) had a clear advantage.
I don't know enough about HS2 to judge who is best positioned to bid.
You'd think DfT would want the best expertise going, which would point to SNCF and DB above the rest.
Then again, a TSI-compliant ERTMS railway like HS2 should be a generic EU design.

 

[Class 170101]

You'd think DfT would want the best expertise going, which would point to SNCF and DB above the rest.
Then again, a TSI-compliant ERTMS railway like HS2 should be a generic EU design.

I think its more important to the government that the Treasury gets its money, and the more the better.

 

[HowardGWR]

I don't think NS operates any high speed services, in fact their attempt to do so was disastrous.

The UK groups can partner with Japanese railways too, not just an EU railway. Interested to see what comes of it. A Virgin partnership with a Shinkansen operator would be great!

The high speed adventure in the Netherlands and Belgium was very firmly the responsibility of the Dutch Government who led in negotiating the cheapest deal and paid the price.

 

[LNW-GW Joint]

I don't think NS operates any high speed services, in fact their attempt to do so was disastrous.

NS International partners with DB on ICE services from Amsterdam (classic lines), and operates ordinary trains on the Dutch HSL.

We also tend to ignore NMBS/SNCB who operate 3 high speed routes from Brussels as part of Eurostar/Thalys.

Actually Govia won't qualify for an HS2 passport because their trains do not reach 250km/h. Phew.

 

[Senex]

HS1 had a strong French bias (it's basically an LGV with a UK flavour), ...

Not that much of a UK flavour.

 

[bb21]

I don't think NS operates any high speed services, in fact their attempt to do so was disastrous.

The UK groups can partner with Japanese railways too, not just an EU railway. Interested to see what comes of it. A Virgin partnership with a Shinkansen operator would be great!

Careful what you wish for. A Japanese firm may well not have the necessary expertise for operating in this country. Very different operating environments between the two countries.

It could end up horrendously wrong.

I wouldn't mind seeing Eurostar given a go from the ones already mentioned. GoVia have done reasonably well with HS1 so I see no reason why they cannot be trusted with West Coast. It's an entirely different operating model to ex-NSE companies so not much inference to draw from those operations. That said, GTR really have ruined their brand amongst many people so expect to see huge backlash if GoVia get it.

This next one's gonna be controversial. Arriva have been fairly innovative, although not helped by the capacity constraints placed on the XC franchise. I would say given the performance of Chiltern and WSMR, they probably could be given a chance too, even if operating under the DB brand.

Can't see Stagecoach/Virgin team up with yet another player, so if they cannot bid as a joint venture between the two of them, I would expect to see them out.

FirstGroup would be an unknown, but pretty much no chance without outside help. It would probably also depend on the outcome of the SWR award to whether they seriously put effort into bidding too.

 

[w1bbl3]

It's an interesting quandary in that only one current franchised operator meets the requirements for UK experience and high speed experience. DB/Arriva.

Can't see Eurostar being that interested in bidding unless as a SNCF proxy but is there also Keolis for that purpose with admittedly no direct LGV experience.

It seems to me as if DfT have tried to structure the EoI to block Stagecoach/Virgin and First Group from bidding by forcing them to JV with another operator. Have they angered the powers that be in DfT towers recently?

 

[najaB]

It seems to me as if DfT have tried to structure the EoI to block Stagecoach/Virgin and First Group from bidding by forcing them to JV with another operator.

Interesting view. Not one I agree with but interesting none the less.

It seems to me more likely that the requirement is what it appears to be on the tin - an attempt to get an experienced HSR operator involved as recognition that HS2 isn't 'just another franchise'.

 

[Chester1]

DB could bid with Arriva UK as a partner. That would enable them to sell or part sell Arriva UK without having to cancel a bid. There has been rumours of a sale for a while and it would make sense to keep its options open. Arriva UK would fail on its own and DB wouldn't want to run HS Classic Compatible services on NR track on its own if it no longer owned Arriva.

Virgin Group will bid with a partner because otherwise it will lose several years of pre HS2 revenue due to the first year of HS2 services. Also, it only owns 10% of VTEC and therefore it would virtually be wiped out the rail market. I suspect Stagecoach would have to bid with another partner otherwise it would be left with a quarter share if it was a Virgin Rail / Foreign opperator partnership (Virgin Rail - WCML franchise only - is 51% Virgin Group and 49% Stagecoach owned).

 

[HH]

The Dutch won't touch it with a bargepole. They are absolutely petrified of High Speed since the Fyra eff up.

 

[najaB]

The Dutch won't touch it with a bargepole. They are absolutely petrified of High Speed since the Fyra eff up.

On the other hand, they now know what not to do.

 

[HH]

On the other hand, they now know what not to do.

That's not the same as knowing what to do....

 

[daikilo]

Interesting view. Not one I agree with but interesting none the less.

It seems to me more likely that the requirement is what it appears to be on the tin - an attempt to get an experienced HSR operator involved as recognition that HS2 isn't 'just another franchise'.

My interpretation of what the DfT intends is that they believe that the TOC needs help to prepare for the set-up the HS2 operation allowing the main team to operate the WCML until HS2 opens. This does not mean 2 TOCs but initially probably 2 teams until say 18 months before HS2 live, after which the transition/merger will occur.

The issue I continue to have is where the funding will come from for the HS preparation phase.

 

[Mollman]

Main issue with Arriva bidding is the CMA would see it as a further reduction in competition, not only in the North West but on the London - Birmingham corridor as well so would be unlikely to allow it.

 

[LNW-GW Joint]

Stagecoach will soon know where they are with South Western, which may dictate their WCP policy.
The WCP franchise won't be at full risk for the TOC, at least not after HS2 opens.
As I understand it, the TOC won't be ordering HS2 rolling stock (it's likely to be a separate DfT/Treasury procurement), so NS needn't fear a Fyra rerun.
Although we might get an IEP stitchup instead (and Hitachi now owns the Fyra factory!).
DB Fernverkehr will have to get involved for a corporate DB bid to work.
On competition, Arriva's XC and Chiltern are up for renewal well before HS2 opens.
I think Virgin will be keen to bid, but probably with a new consortium mix which they would want to lead.

 

[HH]

Stagecoach will soon know where they are with South Western, which may dictate their WCP policy.

They probably have a good idea already.

As I understand it, the TOC won't be ordering HS2 rolling stock (it's likely to be a separate DfT/Treasury procurement), so NS needn't fear a Fyra rerun.

You assume that fear is logical!

On competition, Arriva's XC and Chiltern are up for renewal well before HS2 opens.

I'm not sure that this will have any effect on bidding decisions here.

I think Virgin will be keen to bid, but probably with a new consortium mix which they would want to lead.

Rumours say that Virgin is fed up with rail and it's not so easy for companies to find others they can work with successfully - take First and Keolis or NED and Serco, for example.

 

[northwichcat]

Main issue with Arriva bidding is the CMA would see it as a further reduction in competition, not only in the North West but on the London - Birmingham corridor as well so would be unlikely to allow it.

I'm not sure as First TPE run services between Manchester Airport and Scotland and will start running services between Liverpool and Scotland. Manchester to Crewe/Stoke will probably end up like Manchester to Chester - the CMA would look in to it and conclude it's OK subject to certain conditions. While for an Intercity rail service the main road competitors will be (Stagecoach) Megabus and National Express rather than local operators.

 

[northwichcat]

Rumours say that Virgin is fed up with rail and it's not so easy for companies to find others they can work with successfully - take First and Keolis or NED and Serco, for example.

With NedRailways and Serco bidding for Merseyrail and Northern - one only had light rail experience and the other had no UK railway experience so both were unlikely to win a franchise on their own.

Connex had a realistic chance of beating First to winning the TPE franchise so with neither First or Connex having a good reputation teaming up with a rail operator with a proven track record in France to the mix was a masterstroke by First, while it gave Keolis UK rail experience to allow it to get shortlisted for new lucrative franchises without teaming up with other companies.

 

[Robertj21a]

DB could bid with Arriva UK as a partner. That would enable them to sell or part sell Arriva UK without having to cancel a bid. There has been rumours of a sale for a while and it would make sense to keep its options open. Arriva UK would fail on its own and DB wouldn't want to run HS Classic Compatible services on NR track on its own if it no longer owned Arriva.

Virgin Group will bid with a partner because otherwise it will lose several years of pre HS2 revenue due to the first year of HS2 services. Also, it only owns 10% of VTEC and therefore it would virtually be wiped out the rail market. I suspect Stagecoach would have to bid with another partner otherwise it would be left with a quarter share if it was a Virgin Rail / Foreign opperator partnership (Virgin Rail - WCML franchise only - is 51% Virgin Group and 49% Stagecoach owned).

The previous plan by DB to sell off a minority stake in Arriva has been cancelled as 'no longer necessary'.

 

[ainsworth74]

Main issue with Arriva bidding is the CMA would see it as a further reduction in competition, not only in the North West but on the London - Birmingham corridor as well so would be unlikely to allow it.

Err Stagecoach currently operate the ECML, MML and WCML long distance franchises and there's been nary a sniff from the CMA on that...

 

[HH]

With NedRailways and Serco bidding for Merseyrail and Northern - one only had light rail experience and the other had no UK railway experience so both were unlikely to win a franchise on their own.

Connex had a realistic chance of beating First to winning the TPE franchise so with neither First or Connex having a good reputation teaming up with a rail operator with a proven track record in France to the mix was a masterstroke by First, while it gave Keolis UK rail experience to allow it to get shortlisted for new lucrative franchises without teaming up with other companies.

Yes there were logical reasons. But the fact is that neither were able to work together for the long run, whereas Virgin & Stagecoach have now been working together for ages.

 

[Mollman]

Err Stagecoach currently operate the ECML, MML and WCML long distance franchises and there's been nary a sniff from the CMA on that...

https://www.gov.uk/government/news/stagecoachvirgin-consortium-given-chance-to-resolve-limited-competition-concerns-arising-from-the-east-coast-rail-franchise-award

 

[ainsworth74]

I stand corrected!

 

[LNW-GW Joint]

https://www.gov.uk/government/news/stagecoachvirgin-consortium-given-chance-to-resolve-limited-competition-concerns-arising-from-the-east-coast-rail-franchise-award

I stand corrected!

Even so, the "remedies" were just tiny price constraints on some very local services in the East Midlands.
The principal routes/services (London/East Mids/Scotland) were exempted.
The proposed WCP franchise (ie HS2 Phase 1, or even 2a) wouldn't materially change the current situation if a Virgin/Stagecoach vehicle won it.
Might be different for Phase 2b, which will impact all three long-distance franchises.
In any case, all the competing franchises will be rebid before HS2 starts up.