InterCity West Coast Bidders

[Bletchleyite]

An 11-car Pendolino is 265m long. Why the short trains?

Not everything would have to be precisely 200 or 400m.

 

[The Ham]

An 11-car Pendolino is 265m long. Why the short trains?

Not everything would have to be precisely 200 or 400m.

If not 400m then there would need to be the ability to lengthen then at a later date (which could done by shortening other mid length units to form short and long units).

Likewise if not 200m then you loose the agility to spilt services on route.

 

[LNW-GW Joint]

As forecast by Roger Ford, DfT has now published its intentions for the franchise, combining ICWC and initial operations on HS2.
The competition has slipped a year, so Virgin will get another extension to 2019.
https://www.gov.uk/government/news/...ith-the-introduction-of-high-speed-2-services

The new franchise – the West Coast Partnership – will be responsible for services on both the West Coast Main Line from 2019 and designing and running the initial high speed services from 2026

Today’s announcement is just the first step.The formal expression of interest (EoI) for the West Coast Partnership is due to be published in December 2016, followed by the invitation to tender (ITT) in October or November 2017, with the new franchise scheduled to start 1 April 2019.

So that makes it a much more interesting competition, and will attract all kinds of bidders, not just the usual suspects.
However, it puts off, yet again, any prospect of early changes to ICWC services (eg phasing out Voyagers).

 

[Bletchleyite]

It also seems worded, unless they get a consortium going, to exclude Virgin Rail Group.
--- old post above --- --- new post below ---

If not 400m then there would need to be the ability to lengthen then at a later date (which could done by shortening other mid length units to form short and long units).

Likewise if not 200m then you loose the agility to spilt services on route.

I'm unconvinced that we should be looking to portion-work on HS2 from day one. Delays on the classic network would be likely to cause serious punctuality issues.

Portion-working is likely to be a more reliable proposition on the "full" HS2 on a self-contained basis.

 

[LNW-GW Joint]

It also seems worded, unless they get a consortium going, to exclude Virgin Rail Group.

Being cynical, VRG could get high speed expertise by partnering with Govia or Eurostar (HS1).
But it does look like an invitation for the big boys to lead.
I'm not sure any amount of HS expertise will help DB/SNCF etc run the current WCML.
Nothing said about HS2 rolling stock, which might well be a separate (DfT) procurement.
I wonder how SNCF/Siemens or DB/Alstom would work?
Or maybe the Japanese will take it all.

 

[Ianno87]

It also seems worded, unless they get a consortium going, to exclude Virgin Rail Group.
--- old post above --- --- new post below ---


I'm unconvinced that we should be looking to portion-work on HS2 from day one. Delays on the classic network would be likely to cause serious punctuality issues.

Portion-working is likely to be a more reliable proposition on the "full" HS2 on a self-contained basis.

Unavoidable for the Anglo-Scots services. 400m trains are necessary to meet demand (some shifted from air) within a limited number of train paths (both on HS2 with its 18tph capacity to be distributed between West Midlands, North West, North East and Scotland, and also over Shap for freight capacity).

But you can't get 400m trains into Glasgow/Edinburgh. The only choice is to split at Carstairs/wherever.

Same would apply to Liverpool Lime Street, should demand ever warrant 400m trains; 2 x 200m attaching to something else is unfortunately a necessary evil to get the most out of the capability of HS2 (although perhaps not in the Day one timetable).

I've lived in both Cambridge and Northampton, and performance of regular splitting/joining at both locations has never been the massive issue people make it out to be*

*Attempting to couple Class 350s in temperatures of -5 degrees excepted.

 

[plcd1]

Being cynical, VRG could get high speed expertise by partnering with Govia or Eurostar (HS1).
But it does look like an invitation for the big boys to lead.
I'm not sure any amount of HS expertise will help DB/SNCF etc run the current WCML.
Nothing said about HS2 rolling stock, which might well be a separate (DfT) procurement.
I wonder how SNCF/Siemens or DB/Alstom would work?
Or maybe the Japanese will take it all.

The "big boys to lead" aspect was the one that hit me most from reading the announcements. Having a "straddling" franchise makes sense but there are huge risks for the DfT to manage through this process. Avoiding "capture" by a wily bidding consortium that specifies organisation and technology that gives them a future bidding advantage will be key. No point getting a whizzy first operator if it disadvantages future bidders post 2026.

The DfT's apparent desire to see emerging technology and "step changes" in customer service also sets my own alarm bells ringing. The old evolution vs revolution argument but then I'm not one for huge revolutionary change.

 

[daikilo]

The "big boys to lead" aspect was the one that hit me most from reading the announcements. Having a "straddling" franchise makes sense but there are huge risks for the DfT to manage through this process.

My reading of it is slightly different, it states clearly that the new franchisee will be a partnership which will have to deliver a day-to-day service throughout the period but also to prepare for, introduce then run a radically different (and only partially specified) operation from 2026.

In addition, I think the DfT is actually saying that they don't want to be stuck with managing it, they want the partnership to do the delivery having been through the appropriate consultation and modelling to put it in place, and they are quite strong on "private sector". What is not clear is who will fund this "creation" phase, and how, because there is no way a four-year operation phase can ever cover that cost and cash out-flow, unless the 2019-2026 profits from the "current" operation are held back by the franchisee either entirely or in part.

 

[LNW-GW Joint]

If the DfT is following its rules, the bidders will have to have a franchise "passport".
At the moment that is limited to the well-known suspects, plus a few who have qualified but not bid yet.
But there is a window for newcomers during the "expressions of interest" stage, where new applicants are invited.

Currently, the major foreign operators use subsidiaries for UK bidding - Arriva, Abellio, Keolis.
But DB, for instance, had planned to operate on HS1 through its mainline operator (DB Fernverkehr) rather than Arriva.
This was not a franchise of course, and would have been open access.
Time will tell if the "real" DB/SNCF etc will stand up for HS2.
Actually a 125 mile new HSL and 60-odd new trains is small beer to most of them these days

 

[The Ham]

Unavoidable for the Anglo-Scots services. 400m trains are necessary to meet demand (some shifted from air) within a limited number of train paths (both on HS2 with its 18tph capacity to be distributed between West Midlands, North West, North East and Scotland, and also over Shap for freight capacity).

But you can't get 400m trains into Glasgow/Edinburgh. The only choice is to split at Carstairs/wherever.

Same would apply to Liverpool Lime Street, should demand ever warrant 400m trains; 2 x 200m attaching to something else is unfortunately a necessary evil to get the most out of the capability of HS2 (although perhaps not in the Day one timetable).

I've lived in both Cambridge and Northampton, and performance of regular splitting/joining at both locations has never been the massive issue people make it out to be*

*Attempting to couple Class 350s in temperatures of -5 degrees excepted.

Quite, another operator who seem to manage it day in day out (multiple times a day at multiple locations, including peak hour services) is SWT. Yes they allow a few minutes in the timetable, but can do it with only a short delay if the service is running late (effectively open doors, passenger melee, shut doors, split/join, service carries on).

 

[plcd1]

If the DfT is following its rules, the bidders will have to have a franchise "passport".
At the moment that is limited to the well-known suspects, plus a few who have qualified but not bid yet.
But there is a window for newcomers during the "expressions of interest" stage, where new applicants are invited.

Currently, the major foreign operators use subsidiaries for UK bidding - Arriva, Abellio, Keolis.
But DB, for instance, had planned to operate on HS1 through its mainline operator (DB Fernverkehr) rather than Arriva.
This was not a franchise of course, and would have been open access.
Time will tell if the "real" DB/SNCF etc will stand up for HS2.
Actually a 125 mile new HSL and 60-odd new trains is small beer to most of them these days

They've covered themselves for the "passport" aspect by the possible use of the "temporary visa" provision.

Applicants should note that due to the unique nature of the WCP proposition, the department is considering the potential for a franchise specific approach to the operation of the ‘temporary visa’ mechanism as currently set out in the Passport process document. In the event that a franchise specific approach is adopted, details will be set out in the ‘WCP franchise EoI process document’.

Due to the unique nature of the WCP proposition the department anticipates that bid vehicles will need to draw upon a wider range of participants and skills than would usually be the case in a rail franchise competition. Participants are encouraged to form bid vehicles in a manner which will enable them to deliver as strongly as possible all the constituent elements of the WCP franchise as described above. The department reserves the right to refine further its requirements in relation to the nature of the contributions to be made by the participants in a bidding vehicle.

 

[LNW-GW Joint]

And the ICWC part will operate under a "partial revenue risk" basis, and when HS2 starts it will become an "incentivised management contract".
See West Coast Partnership in this: https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/rail-franchises-summary/rail-franchises-summary

In the long list of HS2 tasks for the winner, rolling stock procurement does not appear.

 

[WatcherZero]

Seems to feature tangentially, they will be responsible for servive pattern development, testing and acceptance, recruitment and training.

The extra passport questions will also assess the ability to plan, develop, design, mobilise and operate high speed services.

 

[northwichcat]

The competition has slipped a year, so Virgin will get another extension to 2019.
https://www.gov.uk/government/news/...ith-the-introduction-of-high-speed-2-services

So Virgin have effectively been a 6 year contract to run a franchise without a formal bidding process.

 

[LNW-GW Joint]

So Virgin have effectively been a 6 year contract to run a franchise without a formal bidding process.

In 4 or 5 short chunks preventing them doing anything significant to improve the service.

 

[Bletchleyite]

In 4 or 5 short chunks preventing them doing anything significant to improve the service.

You don't think the Scotland via Birmingham change was anything significant to improve the service? Nor the conversion of the first class coach to Standard on the 9-car sets? I do.

 

[LNW-GW Joint]

You don't think the Scotland via Birmingham change was anything significant to improve the service? Nor the conversion of the first class coach to Standard on the 9-car sets? I do.

Yes they were fine, given no new stock was being ordered.
I was thinking more of doing something about Voyagers under the wires, and adding capacity to Preston and the Trent Valley, as planned in the RUS.
Also things mentioned in 2012 but since forgotten (Bolton, more trains west of Chester etc).
They may come, but have gone back to 2019.

I haven't seen a new franchise schedule, but it looks as though this new one will push back the GW and possibly XC rebids in 2018.

 

[northwichcat]

In 4 or 5 short chunks preventing them doing anything significant to improve the service.

At least they've been able to introduce the new 11 car Pendolinos so that Voyagers are released to run new services, even if they haven't been allowed to order Voyager replacements/short electric trains to compliment the Voyagers.

 

[plcd1]

I haven't seen a new franchise schedule, but it looks as though this new one will push back the GW and possibly XC rebids in 2018.

There was a tweet from Philip Haigh of Rail Magazine earlier today including an updated schedule.

Not sure how this site renders twitter links but here goes. I can't do a quote of the contents as it's a table not text.

https://twitter.com/philatrail/status/794568694538059778

 

[LNW-GW Joint]

There was a tweet from Philip Haigh of Rail Magazine earlier today including an updated schedule.

I've found that page in the updated OJEU notice: https://www.gov.uk/government/uploa...rail-franchising-pqq-passport-ojeu-notice.pdf
If you read that is says the schedule has only been updated with the WCP dates, and other parts of the schedule will be updated "shortly".
That says to me that there will be some impact.

It also invites WCP franchise "passport" applications, and gives a close date of 24 April 2017.
This is also the close date for responding to the Expressions of Interest document (still to be published).
The indication is that it will not be a standard franchise bidding process.

 

[JaJaWa]

Does this relate to George Osborne trying to get CRH (China Railways Highspeed) to run HS2?

 

[LNW-GW Joint]

Does this relate to George Osborne trying to get CRH (China Railways Highspeed) to run HS2?

No, he wanted Chinese capital to be involved in funding it, and possibly being involved in construction (like Hinkley Point).

 

[northwichcat]

No, he wanted Chinese capital to be involved in funding it, and possibly being involved in construction (like Hinkley Point).

And wanted the Chinese to buy British steel to built it. :roll:

 

[plcd1]

I've found that page in the updated OJEU notice: https://www.gov.uk/government/uploa...rail-franchising-pqq-passport-ojeu-notice.pdf
If you read that is says the schedule has only been updated with the WCP dates, and other parts of the schedule will be updated "shortly".
That says to me that there will be some impact.

It also invites WCP franchise "passport" applications, and gives a close date of 24 April 2017.
This is also the close date for responding to the Expressions of Interest document (still to be published).
The indication is that it will not be a standard franchise bidding process.

Ta - I did hunt around the various DfT docs but didn't find that one. It certainly won't be a standard franchise bidding process. I get a sense DfT are keen to break the mould a little bit and HS2 offers them a chance to try something different that could, if it works, be carried forward into other franchises. I also expect that DfT have done some soundings in the market place as to whether a broader based "run existing / transform to the future" contract would be attractive to a range of potential suppliers.

To be honest the main franchise issue I'm most keen to hear about is South Eastern and whether it is partly devolved or if Mr Grayling keeps it for himself. An announcement must be imminent as must one on fares plus the Autumn Statement too. I know that's wandering off topic for this thread but I get a sense of some "stage setting" being done before we get a load of news on various matters.

 

[Phil from Mon]

Quite, another operator who seem to manage it day in day out (multiple times a day at multiple locations, including peak hour services) is SWT. Yes they allow a few minutes in the timetable, but can do it with only a short delay if the service is running late (effectively open doors, passenger melee, shut doors, split/join, service carries on).

So they should, they and their predecessors have beeen doing it for pushing 100 years!

 

[LNW-GW Joint]

It also must mean a merger of the DfT teams looking at the existing railway, with the HS2 team.
And what of Network Rail, currently kept well away from HS2 for fear of slowing things down?
And ORR - regulation will have to change for HS2.
Meanwhile the HS2 team will have to get to grips with through working on the WCML, the CP6 investments needed on the classic railway to maximise the benefit of HS2, and the procurement of classic-compatible stock.
Some big organisational changes coming, I think.
A 10-year franchise for WCP would put it out of Mr Corbyn's reach until 2030.
I see we got the usual wholehearted support from the RMT today...

 

[The Planner]

You are far from the truth there, NR are already well entwinedn wiith HS2, they cannot do it without us.

 

[WatcherZero]

The press release also says HS2 will move towards a vertically integrated franchise so that's Network Rail not being in charge of maintenance.

 

[HH]

To be honest the main franchise issue I'm most keen to hear about is South Eastern and whether it is partly devolved or if Mr Grayling keeps it for himself.

Put money on it being devolved, even post-Brexit.

 

[LNW-GW Joint]

The West Coast Partnership Expression of Interest competition has started.
Applicants have until 24 April 2017 to qualify for the short list.
https://www.gov.uk/government/publi...petition-expression-of-interest-documentation

The meat is in the EoI document, p18 (Further Technical Questions).
I can't seem to copy the paragraph concerned, but applicants have to demonstrate experience of High Speed Rail (250km/h or above) over the past 10 years (construction, service introduction, train procurement, change management, TSIs).

Hands up who qualifies for that.
In the UK, only Eurostar and Govia (HS1) I believe.
Somehow I can't see Govia being involved in HS2 (except maybe the Keolis part).
First Group and Virgin/Stagecoach will have to partner with an EU state railway if they are going to bid.
I suppose Arriva and Abellio could bid with their parent's credentials (DB and NS).
Then there's Japan and China.