Here are my speculations about who might bid for ICWC.
1) a combination of Virgin and Stagecoach. But
a) maybe there’ll come a time when Richard Branson loses interest in rail franchises; and b) Stagecoach appears to be having problems on East Coast, so might prefer to go all out to retain South Western, rather than take on West Coast which will be hugely affected by HS2 construction.
On the other hand, if Richard Branson would like to run HS2, he might wish to stay in the railway business in the meantime by trying to keep West Coast.
2) First. They nearly got it in 2012. Maybe they’ll have another go. But
a) they may have realised what problems they would have encountered by now if they had been running it since 2012, and therefore hold back, thinking that
b) they’d really prefer to retain Greater Western when that is finally tendered, and
c) if they win South Western in 2017 they’ll have a big franchise to run and not need West Coast as well.
3) National Express. Why wouldn’t they have a go? Because
a) the only intercity franchise they’ve run successfully was Midland Mainline, which was a much smaller operation; and
b) they had an awful time at East Coast.
But that wouldn’t necessarily stop them.
4) DB/Arriva. The end is in sight at Wales and Borders and Cross Country, and in the past Arriva have bid for other inter city operations. But maybe they’d conclude that they’ve got their work cut out at Northern.
5) Keolis Perhaps jointly with Eurostar, as in their bid for East Coast. Probably not with Go Ahead, even if Keolis was the major partner, since Go Ahead don’t have experience of long distance express operations and are having quite enough problems of their own at the moment.
6) Abellio. Probably not. No experience of a major inter city franchise, and they’ve got plenty to do at Scotrail and Greater Anglia.
7) Trenitalia. It would be a bold move. Surely they’d need a partner with some experience of British railway operations.
My money, for what it’s worth – which is very little – would be on (1) above, plus one or two out of (2), (3), (4) and (5).