Wind Power and UK Energy Use

[Nicholas Lewis]

The lowest gas generation we have seen in recent times was mid sfternoon on 5 April last year, at 0.74GW

Conversely its highest so far in 2025 was 24.1GW in January and this is the challenge we still face to keep the lights on winter and low wind we will need to retain gas for many many years still as log run storage is way inadequate to fill the gap in winter on low wind days. Even the Dept of Environment & Net Zero now acknowledge this and are seeking changes to the capacity market in an attempt to get some new build gas (it will need to be carbon recovery proofed but not necessarily when first built) as we need dispatchable generators with inertia to keep the power system stable.

 

[Ken H]

Conversely its highest so far in 2025 was 24.1GW in January and this is the challenge we still face to keep the lights on winter and low wind we will need to retain gas for many many years still as log run storage is way inadequate to fill the gap in winter on low wind days. Even the Dept of Environment & Net Zero now acknowledge this and are seeking changes to the capacity market in an attempt to get some new build gas (it will need to be carbon recovery proofed but not necessarily when first built) as we need dispatchable generators with inertia to keep the power system stable.

We also need enough rotating generation to keep the grid stable. This has to come from gas, neuclear, drax biomas, hydro. But UK generation assets are necoming life expired and replacement needs long lead time assets.

Also the gas assets are beong asked to flex to cover for variable renewables. This is bad for the ageing plant designed to run for long periods at a constant output.

 

[brad465]

We also need enough rotating generation to keep the grid stable. This has to come from gas, neuclear, drax biomas, hydro. But UK generation assets are necoming life expired and replacement needs long lead time assets.

Wouldn't battery storage also be able to fill this role, something that is increasingly becoming prevalent? The fount of knowledge @Bald Rick will know I suspect.

 

[Trainbike46]

Wouldn't battery storage also be able to fill this role, something that is increasingly becoming prevalent? The fount of knowledge @Bald Rick will know I suspect.

My understanding is partially, yes. Other options, such as synchronous condensers (with or without attached flywheels), also contribute to grid inertia. So grid stability and inertia is very much a solvable problem, that is being solved.

There is a page on the NESO website on the exact issue of grid stability and what they are doing about it: https://www.neso.energy/industry-in...s/network-services/stability-network-services

@HSTEd is very knowledgeable on electricity grids, so will know a lot more than I do.

 

[AndrewE]

My understanding is partially, yes. Other options, such as synchronous condensers (with or without attached flywheels), also contribute to grid inertia. So grid stability and inertia is very much a solvable problem, that is being solved.

There is a page on the NESO website on the exact issue of grid stability and what they are doing about it: https://www.neso.energy/industry-in...s/network-services/stability-network-services

@HSTEd is very knowledgeable on electricity grids, so will know a lot more than I do.

"Our" HEP stations are being upgraded too - for about the first time in half a century! There is both pumped storage and straight HEP, both of which are good for spinning inertia. Some have multiple turbines (and pipes) and it has occurred to me that one could be kept generating for grid stabilisation purposes while the others were on pumping duties.

 

[N1]

"Our" HEP stations are being upgraded too - for about the first time in half a century! There is both pumped storage and straight HEP, both of which are good for spinning inertia. Some have multiple turbines (and pipes) and it has occurred to me that one could be kept generating for grid stabilisation purposes while the others were on pumping duties.

My understanding is partially, yes. Other options, such as synchronous condensers (with or without attached flywheels), also contribute to grid inertia. So grid stability and inertia is very much a solvable problem, that is being solved.

There is a page on the NESO website on the exact issue of grid stability and what they are doing about it: https://www.neso.energy/industry-in...s/network-services/stability-network-services

@HSTEd is very knowledgeable on electricity grids, so will know a lot more than I do.

There are quite a few synchronous condensers in the UK now, e.g. Greener Grid Park in Liverpool.

Also other examples like Deeside Power Station (decommissioned gas turbine power station) which has had its turbine retained for use as stability service provider.

Unfortunately NESO don't publish live data on voltage and frequency stabilisation supply like they do for general demand.

 

[HSTEd]

Wouldn't battery storage also be able to fill this role, something that is increasingly becoming prevalent? The fount of knowledge @Bald Rick will know I suspect.

It can be programmed to operate as virtual inertia, but the ultra rapid response and fine control required are not trivial. If you are not careful you can destroy the graceful frequency decline of an overloaded system and replace it with sudden collapse - which is much harder to arrest in a system without strong central control.

The nice thing about heavy rotating machines is that you get all that for free from simple physics.

I have also been developing a paper concept based on the idea that we are now in an environment where storage heaters are a lower carbon means to heat a house than a gas boiler.

And with the EV tariffs available offering ~7.5p/kWh electricity for around five hours every night, aren't even seriously more expensive.
A tariff offering five hours power in every 24 would probably be substantially cheaper still - after all storage heaters are always available for charging.

 

[Trainbike46]

It can be programmed to operate as virtual inertia, but the ultra rapid response and fine control required are not trivial. If you are not careful you can destroy the graceful frequency decline of an overloaded system and replace it with sudden collapse - which is much harder to arrest in a system without strong central control.

The nice thing about heavy rotating machines is that you get all that for free from simple physics.

I have also been developing a paper concept based on the idea that we are now in an environment where storage heaters are a lower carbon means to heat a house than a gas boiler.

And with the EV tariffs available offering ~7.5p/kWh electricity for around five hours every night, aren't even seriously more expensive.
A tariff offering five hours power in every 24 would probably be substantially cheaper still - after all storage heaters are always available for charging.

Are you proposing to use remote control of when storage heaters "charge" to help match production to demand?

Random thought that popped into my mind - I think I heard that certain types of high-power electric motors also contribute to inertia. If that's correct, does that mean that pumped hydro stations contribute to inertia whether they are producing electricity or storing it?

 

[HSTEd]

Are you proposing to use remote control of when storage heaters "charge" to help match production to demand?

Ultimately, yes.
A heater is always plugged in and with smart meters or other signalling methods can be made to charge whenever the grid operator desires.

Random thought that popped into my mind - I think I heard that certain types of high-power electric motors also contribute to inertia. If that's correct, does that mean that pumped hydro stations contribute to inertia whether they are producing electricity or storing it?

Yes, synchronous motors do this as well as synchronous generators do.

Induction machines do generate inertia but less effectively than synchronous ones.

 

[Trainbike46]

Ultimately, yes.
A heater is always plugged in and with smart meters or other signalling methods can be made to charge whenever the grid operator desires.

That sounds like a sensible plan - I think you could do a similar thing with EV charging, though it is probably easier with electric storage heaters.

Yes, synchronous motors do this as well as synchronous generators do.

Induction machines do generate inertia but less effectively than synchronous ones.

Thank you!

 

[MicroLithium]

That sounds like a sensible plan - I think you could do a similar thing with EV charging

This is basically already a thing with for example Octopus's Intelligent Go tariff - you set your desired charge percentage and ready time, and the energy supplier communicates with your car charger to schedule the best charging times up to departure. In return the customer only pays the off peak rate (about 6.5p/kWh) even if the charging actually happens in the middle of the afternoon

 

[BlueLeanie]

Or more productively, think about what you can do to reduce emissions, like political action to tax billionaires, or insulating your home, or going vegan, or something else entirely

Banning alcohol production and consumption in the UK would be one of the biggest single impacts on our country's emissions.

 

[HSTEd]

Banning alcohol production and consumption in the UK would be one of the biggest single impacts on our country's emissions.

Well until the black market alcohol produced with very dodgy methods to escape detection takes over the market.

Food and drink production is, in my view, a red herring.
It does not represent a large fraction of current emissions and will not until very late in decarbonisation.

It does, however, happen to be on of the few categories where emissions are comparatively weakly income linked.

The rich get to take the poor's meat and alcohol so they can keep their flights.

 

[Nottingham59]

Conversely its highest so far in 2025 was 24.1GW in January and this is the challenge we still face to keep the lights on winter and low wind we will need to retain gas for many many years still as log run storage is way inadequate to fill the gap in winter on low wind days.

Yes. But the capital cost of a 24GW capacity wind farm is many times the capital cost of 24GW of gas generation.

The extra cost of adding gas-fired back up capacity to a system based on wind with nuclear, biomass, batteries, classic hydro and pumped-storage hydro is relatively small. And as you won't need the gas generation very often, the carbon footprint will be minimal.

 

[HSTEd]

Yes. But the capital cost of a 24GW capacity wind farm is many times the capital cost of 24GW of gas generation.

The extra cost of adding gas-fired back up capacity to a system based on wind with nuclear, biomass, batteries, classic hydro and pumped-storage hydro is relatively small. And as you won't need the gas generation very often, the carbon footprint will be minimal.

24GW of additional gas generation won't be available until the mid 2030s even if ordered now.

All the turbine manufacturers are booked solid for a decade.

Of course you'd probably just buy open cycle turbines for the low capacity factor role because they are still well over 40% efficient now.
But we probably do need to ditch the aging first generation CCGTs that dominate the UK fleet.

 

[Nottingham59]

Of course you'd probably just buy open cycle turbines for the low capacity factor role because they are still well over 40% efficient now.

Yes, OCGT has its place still. If you're going to run them only for one week a year, it doesn't matter how efficient they are.

And following that logic through, we should be planning for a few GW of marine diesels with generator sets, just in case, which I understand are the lowest capital cost per GW capacity of any generating technology. You could combine these with synchronous condensors so the spinning mass served two purposes.

Heavy fuel oil will keep indefinitely with almost no storage cost, unlike gas or biomass. If they run just one day a year, then any emissions are irrelevant.

 

[Bald Rick]

We also need enough rotating generation to keep the grid stable. This has to come from gas, neuclear, drax biomas, hydro.

Wouldn't battery storage also be able to fill this role, something that is increasingly becoming prevalent? The fount of knowledge @Bald Rick will know I suspect.

Well it’s all been said above, but yes batteries do help. Which is one reasonthere is a (very) large pipeline of battery energy storage systems under construction / with planning / awaiting planning.

Banning alcohol production and consumption in the UK would be one of the biggest single impacts on our country's emissions.

I must admit that after an evening on the ale my emissions do much localised harm.

 

[Krokodil]

That sounds like a sensible plan - I think you could do a similar thing with EV charging, though it is probably easier with electric storage heaters.

That has just reminded me to crank up the bathroom heating (underfloor filament) as the price is plummeting right now.

Banning alcohol production and consumption in the UK would be one of the biggest single impacts on our country's emissions.

If only because of the depopulation it would cause.

 

[Bald Rick]

That has just reminded me to crank up the bathroom heating (underfloor filament) as the price is plummeting right now.

Indeed, wind power on the grid is just short of the all time record at present.

 

[brad465]

Indeed, wind power on the grid is just short of the all time record at present.

Funny how it's plateaued around that level after a rapid ascent, you can tell we've reached the point where the grid is at capacity for delivering wind power so has to "turn the turbines down". Fortunately as the massive National Grid investment takes shape this won't be an issue forever.

 

[telstarbox]

Octopus offered me 3 free hours last Saturday, I assume it is related?

 

[Bald Rick]

Octopus offered me 3 free hours last Saturday, I assume it is related?

It was windy, yes!

 

[BlueLeanie]

Green advocates always get a touch feisty when alcohol is mentioned.

Octopus offered me 3 free hours last Saturday, I assume it is related?

It was fantastic. Used the back-up immersion heater, washing machine, tumble drier, baked cakes, then a roast... About 30kWh altogether.

 

[AndrewE]

Green advocates always get a touch feisty when alcohol is mentioned.

why should they - or have I missed a joke? Feisty = frothy? Apart from the heat used in brewing and distilling I think it's pretty benign, (better than bringing wine from the New World, let alone Australia or New Zealand) and the energy used could be from renewables. It disappoints me that Distillers'CO2 has disappeared, as that would be a good way of mopping up the gas generated by fermenting farm produce and either re-using it or putting it underground.

It was fantastic. Used the back-up immersion heater, washing machine, tumble drier, baked cakes, then a roast... About 30kWh altogether.

"Only" 23 kWh here, but we're not really an electrified household!

 

[Nicholas Lewis]

Offshore Wind capacity is about +1GW so far this year should have been more but Dogger Bank Phase A has experienced more slippage into 2026. I reckon we could see over 2GW added next year as Dogger Bank completes and Inch Cape starts commissioning. However, as others have said we are unlikely to see any significant increase in overall output as the grid just can't move the power. This is actually costing consumers as balancing costs are going up in proportion to added wind. There is no alleviation to this until the first Eastern Green Links gets commissioned in 2029 although thats best case as NG are saying global supply chain pressures are causing slippage. As an aside given how committed UK has been to wind its pretty poor that successive governments have failed to incentivise more manufacturing of the equipment in the UK rather than leave us at the mercy of imports.

 

[brad465]

Offshore Wind capacity is about +1GW so far this year should have been more but Dogger Bank Phase A has experienced more slippage into 2026. I reckon we could see over 2GW added next year as Dogger Bank completes and Inch Cape starts commissioning. However, as others have said we are unlikely to see any significant increase in overall output as the grid just can't move the power. This is actually costing consumers as balancing costs are going up in proportion to added wind. There is no alleviation to this until the first Eastern Green Links gets commissioned in 2029 although thats best case as NG are saying global supply chain pressures are causing slippage. As an aside given how committed UK has been to wind its pretty poor that successive governments have failed to incentivise more manufacturing of the equipment in the UK rather than leave us at the mercy of imports.

In the short-term I suspect the main benefit of these new turbines will be seen in relatively light winds.

 

[HSTEd]

Offshore Wind capacity is about +1GW so far this year should have been more but Dogger Bank Phase A has experienced more slippage into 2026. I reckon we could see over 2GW added next year as Dogger Bank completes and Inch Cape starts commissioning. However, as others have said we are unlikely to see any significant increase in overall output as the grid just can't move the power. This is actually costing consumers as balancing costs are going up in proportion to added wind. There is no alleviation to this until the first Eastern Green Links gets commissioned in 2029 although thats best case as NG are saying global supply chain pressures are causing slippage. As an aside given how committed UK has been to wind its pretty poor that successive governments have failed to incentivise more manufacturing of the equipment in the UK rather than leave us at the mercy of imports.

If the governments had had the backbone for that they could just have built a couple of 800kV power lines across the Scottish borders and made the Eastern Green Link irrelevant!

Even removing the 400kV double circuit lines as a quid pro quo would have left us in a way better position.

 

[Bald Rick]

Offshore Wind capacity is about +1GW so far this year should have been more but Dogger Bank Phase A has experienced more slippage into 2026. I reckon we could see over 2GW added next year as Dogger Bank completes and Inch Cape starts commissioning. However, as others have said we are unlikely to see any significant increase in overall output as the grid just can't move the power. This is actually costing consumers as balancing costs are going up in proportion to added wind. There is no alleviation to this until the first Eastern Green Links gets commissioned in 2029 although thats best case as NG are saying global supply chain pressures are causing slippage. As an aside given how committed UK has been to wind its pretty poor that successive governments have failed to incentivise more manufacturing of the equipment in the UK rather than leave us at the mercy of imports.

Increasingly, and especially with Dogger Bank well into commissioning, we are reducing imports from Norway / Denmark / Netherlands etc. In fact right now we are exporting to them. We are also generating more Solar power than France is! It’s interesting to see how solar is being used in the south to reduce French imports, whilst wind in the north and east is used to reduce Scandinavian imports.

Solar and battery storage is going to be where the bulk of investment occurs in the next decade. There is an enormous pipeline of both; even if only half of it is built the south of the country will be nearly entirely solar powered in summer.

 

[Nicholas Lewis]

Increasingly, and especially with Dogger Bank well into commissioning, we are reducing imports from Norway / Denmark / Netherlands etc. In fact right now we are exporting to them. We are also generating more Solar power than France is! It’s interesting to see how solar is being used in the south to reduce French imports, whilst wind in the north and east is used to reduce Scandinavian imports.

Solar and battery storage is going to be where the bulk of investment occurs in the next decade. There is an enormous pipeline of both; even if only half of it is built the south of the country will be nearly entirely solar powered in summer.

For sure solar and wind will displace more and more gas but not eliminate it for several decades as storage, especially long run, is way off being able to cope with a dunkelflaute in mid winter. UK uses nearly c1TWh/day in mid winter so a 3 day lull is c3TWh. The tree burners flat out can deliver 75GWh/day and nuclear pre Hinkley another 28GWh/day post AGR closures in 2028 and for sure there would be some wind. Batt storage is increasing at pace but is only 10GWh currently and will be no more than 100GWh by end of decade. So this scenario can only be met, without blackouts, by having sufficient alternative dispatchable generation ie not renewables.

The problem UK has is its dispatchable CCGT generation is getting long in the tooth, much of it being over 30yrs old, and nothing new is in the pipeline. It was expected that the Capacity Market would incentivise new build but £75/kw hasn't moved the dial for years. Thus the DENZ have launched a consultation to amend the Capacity Market and introduce a new tier at a rate above £75/kW in an attempt to get more dispatchable generation built. There requirements is these units will need be carbon neutral ie fitted with carbon capture technology or powered by hydrogen but they recognise the technology isn't mature yet so will allow unabated units to prequalify on the basis that they must be able to be retrofitted in the future within the plants lifetime. They are targeting this change to be include in next years T-4 (29/30) auction which is bid in Q1/26 so going to be interesting to see what is offered. Separately we have the Planning and Infrastructure Bill progressing which should hopefully allow us to get on with building long run storage like Cloire Gas and other schemes.

The other area that must be changed is electricity trading arrangements as with gas increasingly being marginalised yet still being needed the current marginal cost model is causing a lot of unnecessary cost. Zonal pricing was an alternative with its pros and cons but govt walked away and has gone back to the drawing board without a clear idea of what is wanted. Its clear though gas will become a standby generator and thus needs to operate under its own regime where it provides just that service at a fixed cost say, except fuel, otherwise all we will do is drive up costs for consumers further.

 

[Pete_uk]

Plus battery storage technology is constantly improving in both capacity and safety.