West Lothian buses

[BathgateNoMore]

Surely if you set up a competitive incursion, you're making it more difficult as any subsequent sale will definitely reduce competition?

I was more trying to say that another operator wouldn't be interested in West Lothian as much as there would be more work for a new operator (not Lothian) than if Lothian had never came out to West Lothian. I don't completely understand the competitive incursion point, if First WL (West Lothian) was sold to Lothian then wouldn't Lothian just become the dominant operator as per First was pre-2018 in West Lothian and what has already happened in East Lothian?

 

[TheGrandWazoo]

I was more trying to say that another operator wouldn't be interested in West Lothian as much as there would be more work for a new operator (not Lothian) than if Lothian had never came out to West Lothian. I don't completely understand the competitive incursion point, if First WL (West Lothian) was sold to Lothian then wouldn't Lothian just become the dominant operator as per First was pre-2018 in West Lothian and what has already happened in East Lothian?

That is exactly my point.

Had Lothian simply negotiated to buy First’s WL operations, they would probably have had a easy ride from the CMA as there was no real diminishing of competition. Try it now and the CMA would have to accept it would be a massive reduction in competition and so probably knock it back.

However, LB thoughts that they could just go in and that First would capitulate and so the CMA would not be an issue and it might save them money. That obviously hasn’t happened.

 

[BathgateNoMore]

That is exactly my point.

Had Lothian simply negotiated to buy First’s WL operations, they would probably have had a easy ride from the CMA as there was no real diminishing of competition. Try it now and the CMA would have to accept it would be a massive reduction in competition and so probably knock it back.

However, LB thoughts that they could just go in and that First would capitulate and so the CMA would not be an issue and it might save them money. That obviously hasn’t happened.

Ah, thanks for clarifying. That seems to stop a direct sale.

I still can't see how West Lothian would be attractive to a new buyer (unless Lothian pull out). I could see a new buyer buy West Lothian as a package with other parts of First (say alongside Glasgow, Larbert, Bannockburn and Balfron) and then not bother with West Lothian as they want to focus on the other depots, leading to Lothian becoming the incumbent. Then again a new owner might turn around and want to compete...

 

[TheGrandWazoo]

Ah, thanks for clarifying. That seems to stop a direct sale.

I still can't see how West Lothian would be attractive to a new buyer (unless Lothian pull out). I could see a new buyer buy West Lothian as a package with other parts of First (say alongside Glasgow, Larbert, Bannockburn and Balfron) and then not bother with West Lothian as they want to focus on the other depots, leading to Lothian becoming the incumbent. Then again a new owner might turn around and want to compete...

It isn’t attractive as a stand-alone or even as a smaller package with Lothian there. Then again First are trying to oust Lothian!

 

[Gingerbus1991]

If First announced a withdrawal like they did in the East it would be plausible that they would be allowed to purchase & keep the WL operations but the Competition & Markets authority could view it as a monopoly if they bought over FSE given they already have a good few services and especially if there was other operators looking to purchase FSE as well, in this case the CMA can order companies with what they see as a monopoly to divest the operation that was purchased.

However it likely wouldn't come to that as already said, FSE atm will be less attractive because of LCB's precense there.

 

[TheGrandWazoo]

If First announced a withdrawal like they did in the East it would be plausible that they would be allowed to purchase & keep the WL operations but the Competition & Markets authority could view it as a monopoly if they bought over FSE given they already have a good few services and especially if there was other operators looking to purchase FSE as well, in this case the CMA can order companies with what they see as a monopoly to divest the operation that was purchased.

However it likely wouldn't come to that as already said, FSE atm will be less attractive because of LCB's precense there.

In terms of precedents....

Stagecoach sought to buy First North Devon with whom they were competing. There was an immediate investigation by the authorities so Stagecoach withdrew the bid and First wound up the operations.

First were busy fighting a rear guard action vs Go Ahead in Plymouth. They then agreed to sell to Stagecoach. Go Ahead immediately withdrew from the competitive battles.

 

[Journeyman]

I get the impression that Lothian have been somewhat surprised at First's persistence - previously First Scotland East have packed up and gone home at the merest hint of trouble or competition. They've recently shut down East Lothian completely, sold Borders, and quit the 43 - which was one of their most profitable routes - as soon as Stagecoach muscled in. That would be enough to suggest to Lothian that they could just show up, compete on a couple of routes and then watch First withdraw completely.

I think the problem is that FSE has shrunk to the point where any further contraction would make it cease to be viable. If they close any of their remaining depots, they'll have trouble justifying retention of engineering and management facilities and they'll be too small to respond to any changes in the area. Falkirk, Stirling and West Lothian still seem to be big enough and profitable enough for them to keep going, but lose any one of those bits of the operation, and they'd probably be in big trouble.

 

[winston270twm]

Ah, thanks for clarifying. That seems to stop a direct sale.

I still can't see how West Lothian would be attractive to a new buyer (unless Lothian pull out). I could see a new buyer buy West Lothian as a package with other parts of First (say alongside Glasgow, Larbert, Bannockburn and Balfron) and then not bother with West Lothian as they want to focus on the other depots, leading to Lothian becoming the incumbent. Then again a new owner might turn around and want to compete...

Should your First Scotland package sale scenario come to fruition, there would only really be Go-Ahead & NX Group cabable of pulling off such as deal, can't really see Transdev or others being interested, Stagecoach can be ruled out due to existing Scottish market share. Go-Ahead prefer Southern England ops, my money would be on NX Group.

 

[cactustwirly]

Ah, thanks for clarifying. That seems to stop a direct sale.

I still can't see how West Lothian would be attractive to a new buyer (unless Lothian pull out). I could see a new buyer buy West Lothian as a package with other parts of First (say alongside Glasgow, Larbert, Bannockburn and Balfron) and then not bother with West Lothian as they want to focus on the other depots, leading to Lothian becoming the incumbent. Then again a new owner might turn around and want to compete...

First aren't selling each operation individually, they're selling the whole group of as a going concern, West Lothian will only be a small piece of the puzzle

 

[winston270twm]

First aren't selling each operation individually, they're selling the whole group of as a going concern, West Lothian will only be a small piece of the puzzle

There's know one willing to buy the whole of First UK Bus, it's more likely to be broken up in to packages to suit best offers recieved.

Even less so with Arriva Group also being on the market & in better shape.

 

[route101]

So after a week how are the ex services doing ?

 

[Stopper]

So after a week how are the ex services doing ?

Still poor but too early to judge yet. They are picking up now but still very few. First (38) are (is) a disaster though and the train has been abandoned by many after the horrible timetable changes so there is hope for progress I suppose.

 

[overthewater]

Poor is one word, just fresh air, most ex1 passengers are getting off Haymarket. It's school holiday time, the festival is still 3 weeks away. We will need to start until the start of September to get a better picture.

 

[In Focus]

But is slower than LCB so it’s not really helping on that front

Is it ?

 

[Jordan Adam]

Is it ?

The X23 is slower than the X17, on par with the old 22 and faster than the X27/X28.

 

[In Focus]

The X23 is slower than the X17, on par with the old 22 and faster than the X27/X28.

55 minutes x23 Edinburgh to Livi
67 minutes x17 Edinburgh to Livi

 

[Jordan Adam]

View attachment 65484 View attachment 65485
55 minutes x23 Edinburgh to Livi
67 minutes x17 Edinburgh to Livi

Except in those screenshots you've just sent you've compared the X17 during the peak period with the X23 offpeak.

 

[In Focus]

So how long does X17 take off peak ?

I was sure the 67 minutes was off peak for X17

Show is the times your taking where it is quicker Edinburgh to livingston ?

 

[In Focus]

Except in those screenshots you've just sent you've compared the X17 during the peak period with the X23 offpeak.

918 to 1025 then every 30 minutes is not "peak period " !
Thought I was seeing things

 

[overthewater]

I though we were talking about Craigshill to Edinburgh?

 

[In Focus]

I though we were talking about Craigshill to Edinburgh?

Ahhh so your trying to compare a service thats been through the centre to one that still to go there and sit 5 minutes ,seems plausible right enough
I guess that would suit though .
At best of times trying to compare A71 with A8 times is fully this even more so .

 

[Jordan Adam]

I though we were talking about Craigshill to Edinburgh?

Indeed.

Ahhh so your trying to compare a service thats been through the centre to one that still to go there and sit 5 minutes ,seems plausible right enough
I guess that would suit though .
At best of times trying to compare A71 with A8 times is fully this even more so .

The original discussion was about First wanting to remove the Craigshill to Edinburgh link. Hence why we were comparing the X23 with other services from there.

 

[Fryschocream]

Ah.....I don't suppose you're the supervisor who's claiming that LB are taking your job and pension are you?

 

[In Focus]

Ah.....I don't suppose you're the supervisor who's claiming that LB are taking your job and pension are you?

Nope .....no one taking my job fella ,sorry to disappoint you .

 

[In Focus]

Indeed.



The original discussion was about First wanting to remove the Craigshill to Edinburgh link. Hence why we were comparing the X23 with other services from there.

Thanks not even a comparison though is it ?

 

[Bus Guru]

Coming back to Lothian’s move into West Lothian, I’m still struggling to understand their motivation. If they’re just out to make money – and as far as we know this is an entirely commercial move - they’d be better off just cloning the best bits of the current First network. Not very original, but timed right and with a good fare offer it would do well. But they’ve chosen to compete on the weaker/less obvious corridors, presumably filling a few gaps from First’s review. I see First’s X27/8 regularly in Haymarket or Gorgie and it is usually only carrying singe figures - always seemed a very odd choice to get new mmc’s at time when investment is so rare. Unless Lothian’s X27/8 is going to replace all or part of the X25 – that would fill the buses.

The 275 might work. Depends on the numbers willing to go with Lothian. The Gyle and Edinburgh Park always seem to be poorly served from the west, but is there much demand in the evenings? Is the 275 an old Eastern Scottish number that will mean something to the locals – are there pensioners who’ll get a bit emotional at the return of green buses and the 275?

This is a lot less straightforward than setting up East Coast Buses or taking over in Midlothian. First don’t have their problems to seek, but if they stand their ground it could get very expensive, very quickly for Lothian. But Lothian does have an impressive track record, so would you bet against them?

Lothian need a very large profitable network devoid of any competition between Bkackridge on North Lanarkshire / West Lothian border to Dunbar to pay for the trams

 

[Fryschocream]

Not dissapointed....couldn't really give two hoots. With your amazing financial prowess why don't you tell us how much commission the ticket sellers have earned at BBT? I know the answer....so let's see if you're telling porkies.

 

[Jordan Adam]

Thanks not even a comparison though is it ?

It is, we were discussing the Craigshill to Edinburgh link as First were originally planning to axe It, however they kept it by extending the X23.

 

[Jordan Adam]

In reply to recent posts in the "First Group : Edinburgh Tour Bus" thread that had veered off topic.

The issue with re-instating the former First services is that on the whole there's a reason those services don't exist anymore, passengers travel patterns change and bus services must change to reflect that. There might have been demand for a service from point A to point B in 2009, but in 2019 that demand may have diminished.

Hypothetically the X27/X28 could probably work if they were merged in to the Livingston - Edinburgh leg of the X23. However as stand alone routes they don't, additionally the extension to Bathgate is rather pointless given it's covered by the 280/287 (Or First's much faster 25). The 280/281/287 are just slower mirrors of First's 25/26/21 that go via Craigshill.

As i've said previously LC's best idea thus far has probably been the X18.

I just don't agree with the statement that LCB are copying 'old' First routes. That's LCB's problem if they turn out to still not to be viable, but they can't be copying something which no longer exists.

I don't think it's fair to call them copies as there are clear differences, but here's a quick rundown of the "copies".

X17: First's old 6
X18: First's old 20
X27/X28: First's old 27/28
275: Combination of the 22 and pre-2018 21A minus Edinburgh Airport.
280: First's current 25
281: First's current 26
287: First's current 21

 

[SpeedbirdA350]

Do we know how EX1 and EX2 are doing in terms of pax?