West Coast Franchise speculation

[Class 170101]

Why so?

Can't believe that an hourly service to London is sufficient when Manchester and Birmingham both get 3tph. 2tph in the off peak should be enough really

 

[Hadders]

The off peak trains to Manchester and Birmingham don't exactly cart fresh air around in my experience.

 

[OMGitsDAVE]

Can't believe that an hourly service to London is sufficient when Manchester and Birmingham both get 3tph. 2tph in the off peak should be enough really

From my experience, the Liverpool trains are nowhere near as busy as Manchester/Birmingham trains. This surely is a case of supply/demand?

 

[pt_mad]

Re Liverpool the franchise spec says 1 train per hour off peak to and from Liverpool.

The consultation has already gone out and been done so it's down to the bidders now whether they want to propose more services optional extras.

But the minimum service pattern off peak is one per hour as specified by the DFT and they did do a consultation.

 

[ForTheLoveOf]

I don't see why they have to make the franchise premium calculations so complex. Either let it as a management contract with a fixed fee, plus or minus bonuses/penalties based on things done well or screwed up. Or alternatively let it on a franchise basis and set a basic franchise payment that is adjusted by RPI every year, plus some set percentage of the profits. Obviously the latter could lead to the DfT recovering smaller premiums than could theoretically be recovered, but it seems much more sensible.

 

[LNW-GW Joint]

From my experience, the Liverpool trains are nowhere near as busy as Manchester/Birmingham trains. This surely is a case of supply/demand?

In my view the busiest off-peak VT trains on the WCML (ie the route needing more services first) are the Glasgow fasts, as far as Preston.
The new Blackpool services do a bit to address that problem.
But VT is short of trains, so another route would have to lose out to provide 2tph to Liverpool or Preston, at least in the short term.
And then we have the perennial problem of 5-car Voyagers on some London-Birmingham-Scotland services.
Liverpool is at least pretty sure of its 11-car 390s.

 

[driver_m]

In my view the busiest off-peak VT trains on the WCML (ie the route needing more services first) are the Glasgow fasts, as far as Preston.
The new Blackpool services do a bit to address that problem.
But VT is short of trains, so another route would have to lose out to provide 2tph to Liverpool or Preston, at least in the short term.
And then we have the perennial problem of 5-car Voyagers on some London-Birmingham-Scotland services.
Liverpool is at least pretty sure of its 11-car 390s.

Liverpool gets its fair share of 9's. I don't know where this has come from that Liverpool somehow has an exclusive 11 car service when it blatantly doesn't. And as for the demand, it's there alright. Just have a look at the queues on Lime St station for boarding now that people can't line up on pl.7 anymore.

 

[WatcherZero]

Yeah I remember previous franchise documentation that the peak loadings on the West Coast franchise for a train departing London were the Warrington-Preston stretch.

 

[WatcherZero]

Can't believe that an hourly service to London is sufficient when Manchester and Birmingham both get 3tph. 2tph in the off peak should be enough really

Arent West Midlands Trains extending a hourly Liverpool-Birmingham service to London from the end of the year? Theres your 2tph off peak.

I don't believe theres any spare paths on the WCML to add more services.

 

[Gareth Marston]

In my view the busiest off-peak VT trains on the WCML (ie the route needing more services first) are the Glasgow fasts, as far as Preston.
The new Blackpool services do a bit to address that problem.
But VT is short of trains, so another route would have to lose out to provide 2tph to Liverpool or Preston, at least in the short term.
And then we have the perennial problem of 5-car Voyagers on some London-Birmingham-Scotland services.
Liverpool is at least pretty sure of its 11-car 390s.

The official connection from Euston are the xx43 Anglo Scottish services for the Cambrian and Shrewwsbury to Chester. The 1643 from Euston is a Voyager and AP' fares are not generally available for it.

 

[The Ham]

There's be suggestions on here in the past that a new fleet of 6 coach tilting trains (run as pairs out of London) could be useful in that it could allow a more frequent service to Liverpool (possibly by extending a Birmingham service or by splitting a service at Crewe) as well as adding some new stations onto the ICWC network (maybe by extending Manchester services).

It would also enable the 221's to be removed from running solely under the wires.

They would need to be tilting, which would push the cost up, but they could be useful post HS2 where there could be less need for long trains.

 

[aylesbury]

I would say that demand is just as high north of Preston to Glasgow ,it always amazes me when you see the number of passengers leaving at arrival and the number joining on departure.

 

[mmh]

It would also enable the 221's to be removed from running solely under the wires.

This comes up every couple of months. It's really not the big issue it's made out to be, plus the only place them having tilt is used is under the wires.

They would need to be tilting, which would push the cost up, but they could be useful post HS2 where there could be less need for long trains.

Pretty much every instance where "shorter trains will be enough" has actually happened has turned out to be wrong - CrossCountry, East Midlands, Hull Trains, class 170, 171, 180, 220, 221. And on VTWC itself 390s have been lengthened twice and originally the 4 coach 221s were to be used for the off-the-wires services. All were proved to be short-sighted, so I'd be hesitant to suggest going down that route again.

 

[jyte]

This comes up every couple of months. It's really not the big issue it's made out to be, plus the only place them having tilt is used is under the wires.



Pretty much every instance where "shorter trains will be enough" has actually happened has turned out to be wrong - CrossCountry, East Midlands, Hull Trains, class 170, 171, 180, 220, 221. And on VTWC itself 390s have been lengthened twice and originally the 4 coach 221s were to be used for the off-the-wires services. All were proved to be short-sighted, so I'd be hesitant to suggest going down that route again.

I also fear the DFTs decision to choose 5 car 800s will prove equally short sighted in the next few years....

 

[Class 170101]

I also fear the DFTs decision to choose 5 car 800s will prove equally short sighted in the next few years....

Afraid I have to agree with that unless the are splitting and joining as 2*5 car trains for the busiest sections.

 

[Class 170101]

I don't believe theres any spare paths on the WCML to add more services.

Isn't the xx33 path still available in most hours?

 

[mmh]

Afraid I have to agree with that unless the are splitting and joining as 2*5 car trains for the busiest sections.

Without really knowing, I always assumed the 5 cars must have been intended to always be 2x5 into/out of Paddington and split, but not knowing the Great Western very well at all I don't know where the realistic places to split at and routes are. Is that the intention?

My only "regular" journey is Weston-super-Mare/Taunton/Bristol to/from London. I don't really see how splitting those could be very useful - for a Weston terminator you could possibly terminate 1x5 at Bristol (although as HSTs these are often very busy), or for through services you could split and send one unit via Weston and one via Taunton, though there doesn't seem to be much point in that and you'd end up a service running not long after the last from Taunton. I suppose there must be other locations where it's more practical.

I know the East Coast Main Line better, but still wonder just how they'll be sensibly used there too.

 

[Class 170101]

Split at York for Middlesbrough and Scarborough maybe and maybe also at Edinburgh for northern destinations depending upon demand but I agree I'm also struggling for the lightly loaded sections

 

[The Ham]

Without really knowing, I always assumed the 5 cars must have been intended to always be 2x5 into/out of Paddington and split, but not knowing the Great Western very well at all I don't know where the realistic places to split at and routes are. Is that the intention?

My only "regular" journey is Weston-super-Mare/Taunton/Bristol to/from London. I don't really see how splitting those could be very useful - for a Weston terminator you could possibly terminate 1x5 at Bristol (although as HSTs these are often very busy), or for through services you could split and send one unit via Weston and one via Taunton, though there doesn't seem to be much point in that and you'd end up a service running not long after the last from Taunton. I suppose there must be other locations where it's more practical.

I know the East Coast Main Line better, but still wonder just how they'll be sensibly used there too.

The GWML is likely to be 10 coach units to Oxford, Cardiff, Exeter/Plymouth.

WCML would be broadly the same services as at present (as all the 9/11 coach units would stay), but with the option to run 12 coach trains with a split at Birmingham, Crewe or Manchester to serve stations beyond.

There could be an option to run short units early morning/late evening to provide extra services.

 

[WatcherZero]

Isn't the xx33 path still available in most hours?

Thought the hourly London-Blackpool service essentially cannibalised that by utilising it at key points of the journey, I remember the study some years ago flagged the xx33 up as being used in several hours for the measurement train as well as forcing some other retimings as well as a 5 minute sit down somewhere to let other services pass.

 

[6Gman]

Can't believe that an hourly service to London is sufficient when Manchester and Birmingham both get 3tph. 2tph in the off peak should be enough really

The level of demand from Manchester or Birmingham is irrelevant to Liverpool.

I travel on the Virgin trains into/ out of Liverpool several times a year. Have never had to stand. Cannot ever recall people standing *.

* Actually, I do recall one train leaving Liverpool F&S (Full and Standing) after a football match. But you can't justify a half-hourly service on the basis of something that might happen twenty days a year.

 

[mmh]

The GWML is likely to be 10 coach units to Oxford, Cardiff, Exeter/Plymouth.

WCML would be broadly the same services as at present (as all the 9/11 coach units would stay), but with the option to run 12 coach trains with a split at Birmingham, Crewe or Manchester to serve stations beyond.

There could be an option to run short units early morning/late evening to provide extra services.

Would 12 coach trains fit into Euston? 11 coach pendolinos seem to only just fit in some of them, and then the stations they'll call at might be a problem. Crewe certainly has exceptionally long platforms, but where else?

I don't think there'll be many opportunities to run short trains into Euston in the early morning - from wherever these services originated by the time they arrive on the south WCML and at Euston it'll be London rush hour, which is one reason the morning voyager arrivals have all joined and are full length trains. Not doing that would be a big waste of capacity

 

[E6007]

Would 12 coach trains fit into Euston? 11 coach pendolinos seem to only just fit in some of them, and then the stations they'll call at might be a problem. Crewe certainly has exceptionally long platforms, but where else?

I don't think there'll be many opportunities to run short trains into Euston in the early morning - from wherever these services originated by the time they arrive on the south WCML and at Euston it'll be London rush hour, which is one reason the morning voyager arrivals have all joined and are full length trains. Not doing that would be a big waste of capacity

You're right. 11 car pendos are 253m and another car would make it about 276. That would be a problem on many platforms at Euston (but not all) and lots of other stations.

 

[The Ham]

You're right. 11 car pendos are 253m and another car would make it about 276. That would be a problem on many platforms at Euston (but not all) and lots of other stations.

Oh, but it's fine, as that was the solution (12 coach trains to everywhere) rather than building HS2!

Two serious points, firstly it wouldn't be all services so it could be possible to (mostly) just timetable then to use the longer platforms, possibly paired with lengthening a few of the easy to do platforms. Secondly with automatic selective door opening there's probably few platforms elsewhere which would cause a problem if the first/last two doors weren't able to be used.

 

[The Planner]

Not as easy as that sounds!

 

[6Gman]

Not as easy as that sounds!

Indeed!

And would a 2x6 Pendolino have as much capacity as an 11?

Portion working makes some sense on the GW to avoid overlong trains wandering through Cornwall for a couple of hours each way. Makes much less sense for the WCML.

And it's not just platform length, it's also managing signalling, track circuits, overlaps and the like.

 

[mmh]

Oh, but it's fine, as that was the solution (12 coach trains to everywhere) rather than building HS2!

Two serious points, firstly it wouldn't be all services so it could be possible to (mostly) just timetable then to use the longer platforms, possibly paired with lengthening a few of the easy to do platforms. Secondly with automatic selective door opening there's probably few platforms elsewhere which would cause a problem if the first/last two doors weren't able to be used.

Great theoretically but awful in practice surely?

Oh, but it's fine, as that was the solution (12 coach trains to everywhere) rather than building HS2!

Two serious points, firstly it wouldn't be all services so it could be possible to (mostly) just timetable then to use the longer platforms, possibly paired with lengthening a few of the easy to do platforms. Secondly with automatic selective door opening there's probably few platforms elsewhere which would cause a problem if the first/last two doors weren't able to be used.

In principle, yes. In reality it's surely an awful idea. A Euston where you can't route a train into a different platform during disruption? A recipe for disaster, surely?

SDO is an awful idea on long distance services and would just result in massive dwell times, including those that begin as intercity services and turn into local services when they get off the main line which seem to get overlooked so often

 

[pt_mad]

Arent West Midlands Trains extending a hourly Liverpool-Birmingham service to London from the end of the year? Theres your 2tph off peak.

I don't believe theres any spare paths on the WCML to add more services.

But realistically nobody is going to board the WMT service at Liverpool all the way to London all stations via Birmingham and Northampton.

It seems more that it will reduce dwell times and platform occupancy at New St rather than providing Liverpool with a second hourly London. As it isn't really a viable alternative going all the way.

In theory there are two spare WCML off peak paths at certain times if day since Norton Bridge was finished. As stated the Blackpool services have taken some and it's desired AFAIK that at least one path in the hour is left spare for performance.

As stated many times already class 390 is now outdated and can't be produced.

So presumably the Italian designers would have to be approached for their latest off the shelf version of the Pendolino.

 

[Bletchleyite]

Arent West Midlands Trains extending a hourly Liverpool-Birmingham service to London from the end of the year? Theres your 2tph off peak.

Despite the long journey I expect these to be VERY popular. Leisure travellers like cheap fares, and if you can get a train for the price of a coach even if it takes the same amount of time as a coach people will switch. Particularly for direct journeys.

 

[Bletchleyite]

But realistically nobody is going to board the WMT service at Liverpool all the way to London all stations via Birmingham and Northampton.

They will - in droves. The ultra-low fares will be too attractive not to when there is a direct service for those on a budget. It could make significant inroads into the coach market.

If, OTOH, it was the Trent Valley service being extended, VT would be utterly trounced.