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West Coast Franchise speculation

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LNW-GW Joint

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-It is far too early to call, even to the point for East Coast, we don't even know who will bid.
-West Coast is possibly in Virgin's favour, given the vast improvements they have delivered in the past franchise
-That being said, nothing is certain, and is still to early

Yes we do, the short list was published in June last year.
http://www.railwaygazette.com/news/...ted-for-west-coast-partnership-franchise.html
Note the absence of Abellio and Arriva (and therefore NS and DB as high-speed partners).
 
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pt_mad

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If tilt stock is available (390) why would NR spend anything to improve the track alignment instead? Also, what if TPE decided to use possibly cheap 390s on their Scotland routes, maybe starting back from say Crewe or Birmingham as say open access? We (and the ROSCOs) need to get out of the box and think about how we can best use what we/they have.

I recall reading a report in the Rail News last year which stated that Network Rail will seek to raise speeds in straight sections to speeds up to 125mph. Not track alignment, but raising speeds on straight sections.

HS2 will not use Pendolinos. And the rolling stock specification for HS2 is non tilt.

As far as I can see, it's still in question whether or not Network Rail intend to maintain tilt north of Crewe after HS2. If 390s are going to be more like stopping services, and HS2 is to be the more premier service, then there won't really be much of a requirement for Network Rail to spend millions in maintaining the track to tilt standards when HS2 trains cannot tilt anyway.

XC Voyagers had tilt equipment removed. Possible that this could happen with 390s.

Well the HS2 paradox is that its 360km/h stock has the prospect of being stuck at 110mph north of Crewe.
Passengers have the prospect of extended journey times compared to now, say 15 minutes over a 390.
I think the DfT will want to improve the northern WCML for CC trains, but what is affordable is for WCP and NR to work out.
The business case increases when Edinburgh trains run via HS2 and the WCML.
TPE had the chance of buying tilting trains last year, and plumped for bargain non-tilt EMUs instead.

The plan seems to be that services do run non tilt on the Northern WCML, bit at speeds up to 125mph,on straight sections which could be raised to 125mph with apparently little work in places.

I heard a figure banded about of a 15 minute improvement from Euston to Glasgow Central via HS2 phase one, and then classic lines from Rugeley. Would be more if it was t for unable to use tilt.
However, when you consider that a. HS2 is supposedly about capacity and not speed, and b. 390 services will likely be slowed down after HS2, stops inserted etc to make the difference in journey time more drastic, it won't be at all bad. We don't know if 390s will even run to Glasgow after 2026, or if they do, whether they will tilt. So it will become a case of what a HS2 train can do it in Vs what TPE can do the journey in.

Removing 390s from the route, or disabling tilt equipment on 390s would to some extent prevent the DFT from having egg on their faces due to insuperior journey times on non tilt stock.

The livery has nowt to do with it. The Pendolinos are scheduled a repaint, and as such are getting a generic one. The Voyagers are not, and so are not being repainted.

Have the Voyagers had a mid life repaint? Surely it's needed?

Aren't the 390s only really useful on the WCML?

I'd assume after HS2, some could switch to run out of Birmingham and Manchester to Scotland - and they'd run at higher speeds than the HS2 London trains north of Preston!

That said, I think due to MKC demand etc - I imagine most Pendo services will remain, but just add a few more stops and become the semi-fasts.

Yes 390s are only useful in terms of tilt on the WCML. But are Network Rail going to contribute spending hundreds of millions maintaining the track to tilt standards when HS2 is in operation? Possibly doubtful.

-It is far too early to call, even to the point for East Coast, we don't even know who will bid.
-West Coast is possibly in Virgin's favour, given the vast improvements they have delivered in the past franchise
-That being said, nothing is certain, and is still to early

#VIRGIN2019!

Since 2012 the improvements seem to have been fairly limited. Lack of train improvements, no interior refurbishment, poor WiFi, no plan of bi modes or hybrid, lack of new routes except Blackpool.

Also, they seem to have adopted a very Airline sort of image, with air hostess type staff on board (with the exception of train managers). Even on their adverts. This may have been very trendy ten years ago, I'm not so sure today, especially with the age of austerity, and far less of an appetite among society for any sort of 'sexed up' image.

Other TOCs are starting to call themselves 'example example Railway'. And are going back towards Railway nostalgia. Whereas VT seem to run with sort of a more yuppy trendy airline, going on holiday type image with their marketing. Seems to be the only TOC going in that direction?
 
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LNW-GW Joint

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That's the West Coast bidders list!

Sorry, I read it as WC (seeing as we've just had this thread moved from the EC thread!).
On EC, we don't even know if it will go to open tender or just a direct award (or both, while preparing for a full bid).
Meanwhile back to WC...!
 

AndrewE

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Also, they seem to have adopted a very Airline sort of image, with air hostess type staff on board (with the exception of train managers). Even on their adverts. This may have been very trendy ten years ago, I'm not so sure today, especially with the age of oesterity, and far less of an appetite among society for any sort of 'sexed up' image.
Nice Freudian slip there, we even have lady chefs as well as all the other on-board staff! (even if it wasn't a slip, I haven't heard the expression before & it provoked a chuckle.)
 

DenmarkRail

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I like the way VT run their services, compared to other operators. They make it feel like you are always being attended to, and make it a nicer experiance, than a GWR service, where there is only 1 locatable member of staff in their office.
 

LNW-GW Joint

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Removing 390s from the route, or disabling tilt equipment on 390s would to some extent prevent the DFT from having egg on their faces due to insuperior journey times on non tilt stock.

So let's slow everything down so that HS2 times to Scotland don't look so poor?
After spending £54 billion (or whatever) on it?

There's obviously a gulf between HS2 Ltd and NR, with each wanting the other to spend big money on the northern WCML.
I think there's very little scope for 125mph non-tilt north of Crewe, without realignment.
In many ways this stretch was the poor relation in the WCRM upgrade.
NR upgraded a few junctions and the OHLE, and replaced quite a few bridges, but the basic 110mph (max) route is unchanged.
More reconstruction was carried out on the North Staffs line I think, where genuine line speed improvements were made.
On the WCML there's still quite long stretches of 80-90mph through both lots of fells and around Warrington and north of Carstairs.
Preston and Carlisle areas are largely untouched since electrification in 1974, with extended 20mph restrictions.

I think some of this depends on whether the primary route to Scotland after HS2b is built remains the WCML (as currently indicated by HS2 Ltd).
If you split traffic between the WCML and ECML, as applies now on the classic railway, you weaken the business case for a major upgrade of either route.
And some of that depends on what the Scots want.
 

pt_mad

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Sorry, incorrect spelling of austerity.
 
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pt_mad

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So let's slow everything down so that HS2 times to Scotland don't look so poor?
After spending £54 billion (or whatever) on it?

There's obviously a gulf between HS2 Ltd and NR, with each wanting the other to spend big money on the northern WCML.
I think there's very little scope for 125mph non-tilt north of Crewe, without realignment.
In many ways this stretch was the poor relation in the WCRM upgrade.
NR upgraded a few junctions and the OHLE, and replaced quite a few bridges, but the basic 110mph (max) route is unchanged.
More reconstruction was carried out on the North Staffs line I think, where genuine line speed improvements were made.
On the WCML there's still quite long stretches of 80-90mph through both lots of fells and around Warrington and north of Carstairs.
Preston and Carlisle areas are largely untouched since electrification in 1974, with extended 20mph restrictions.

I think some of this depends on whether the primary route to Scotland after HS2b is built remains the WCML (as currently indicated by HS2 Ltd).
If you split traffic between the WCML and ECML, as applies now on the classic railway, you weaken the business case for a major upgrade of either route.
And some of that depends on what the Scots want.

I would imagine that slowing 390 services down would be a natural consequence of HS2. There's no point bypassing a load of intermediate stations on 390s if HS2 already runs to Scotland with next to no stops.

Put stops in through the Trent Valley etc and it then becomes a case of HS2 could be 30 mins quicker to Scotland.

I am fairly sure I read last year that some short straight stretches of the Northern WCML could be upgraded to 125 with some signalling modifications and new signage and all that comes with it, and that that was the long term aim on the WCML where viable.

Up to now I suppose there's been no point in investigating the possibility of this due to 390s simple running in tilt at all points and all track simply being signalled for EPS x and non tilt x. There has been no point in trying to raise the limits in straight sections up to now.

If they could raise the speeds for say 2 mile sections, then back to 110mph, if the stock has exceptional acceleration then it could be worth it. Especially if TPE emus will be 125 capable.
 

The Planner

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Not aware of anyone contemplating removing EPS on the West Coast as part of HS2 and drivers will not accelerate for a 2 mile section.
 

LNW-GW Joint

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Not aware of anyone contemplating removing EPS on the West Coast as part of HS2 and drivers will not accelerate for a 2 mile section.

I remember the SRA using the term "undriveable" for short sawtooth speeds on the WCML, particularly over the hills.
There are maybe a few 5-10 mile "straight" 125mph-capable sections (eg Crewe-Preston Brook, and through Coppull and Garstang), but that's about it.
 

pt_mad

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I remember the SRA using the term "undriveable" for short sawtooth speeds on the WCML, particularly over the hills.
There are maybe a few 5-10 mile "straight" 125mph-capable sections (eg Crewe-Preston Brook, and through Coppull and Garstang), but that's about it.

Any other sections where speeds could be increased above what they are now, with minimal modifications?
 

Bletchleyite

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Personally I would really like to see DB Fernverkehr involved - but I'm not convinced Arriva would actually have done that. They're still the bus bandits from the North East with a few German flags tied on the side, and so it shows in all their operations such as the execrable XC and still very poor Northern. Even Chiltern isn't what it was.

Out of the actual options I dislike SNCF and Trenitalia and their Romance style of operation (no clockface timetabling, compulsory reservations, largely segregated high speed operation, no walk-up fares etc) so I'd favour MTR/Guangshen as the outlier.
 

All Line Rover

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I think some of this depends on whether the primary route to Scotland after HS2b is built remains the WCML (as currently indicated by HS2 Ltd).

I would like to see HS2 services run to Scotland via Newcastle, with the WCML retaining its current Birmingham to Scotland services (for the benefit of intermediate stations, not Birmingham to Scotland passengers). Warrington to Glasgow or Edinburgh, for example, is very competitive by train against the car. I don't want that to change.

There seems to be more of a market for travel between the NE and Scotland than the NW and Scotland, but routeing HS2 via Newcastle would depend on the Scottish government considering Glasgow to be less important than Edinburgh, rather than equally important.
 

LNW-GW Joint

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Any other sections where speeds could be increased above what they are now, with minimal modifications?

I don't think it's as simple as identifying straight bits and changing the speed signs.
Nobody ever quite explains it but there seems to be basic engineering reasons why plain non-tilt 125mph is not acceptable on the WCML.
Otherwise it would have been implemented before now.
The only stretch where it is allowed currently is between Wolverhampton (Bushbury) and a couple of miles short of Stafford, where XC (originally VXC) shares the route.
It was hinted that the 125 EPS was implemented for Virgin only with their tilting fleet, but that can't still be the reason with new franchise contracts since 2012, superseding the original PUG contracts.
 

gsnedders

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I would like to see HS2 services run to Scotland via Newcastle, with the WCML retaining its current Birmingham to Scotland services (for the benefit of intermediate stations, not Birmingham to Scotland passengers). Warrington to Glasgow or Edinburgh, for example, is very competitive by train against the car. I don't want that to change.

How much time do the London to Glasgow via Birmingham services save by using EPS speeds? Yes, they're slower on average due to the large number of stops, but there's long stretches with no stops (most obviously through the Borders). They seem like an obvious place for 390s to be, at least.
 

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Out of the actual options I dislike SNCF and Trenitalia and their Romance style of operation (no clockface timetabling, compulsory reservations, largely segregated high speed operation, no walk-up fares etc) so I'd favour MTR/Guangshen as the outlier.

Don't forget that HS2 will be a management style operation i.e. DfT/HS2 Ltd will be setting the timetable, on-board facilities etc.
 
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Just discovered that a folk who I met through Youth Parliament in 2014 now works at the DfT! She previously worked with Peterborough's Stewart Jackson before Labour flipped the seat in June. If I thus hear anything, I may say. Personal opinion though would be that MTR/Ghungshen will win, particularly with the other companies on board with their bid.
 

DenmarkRail

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Wouldn't be surprised if LNWR take the operation of Rugby, and Stafford in the next franchise.
 

Agent_Squash

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Just discovered that a folk who I met through Youth Parliament in 2014 now works at the DfT! She previously worked with Peterborough's Stewart Jackson before Labour flipped the seat in June. If I thus hear anything, I may say. Personal opinion though would be that MTR/Ghungshen will win, particularly with the other companies on board with their bid.
And then you'll get Branson starting another petition...
 

LNW-GW Joint

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Virgin only has a 30% share of the joint bid, Stagecoach is in the lead with 50%, and SNCF has 20%.

Of the other bids, the Guangshen Railway appears to have two slogans: Railway of Harmony, and As Frequent as Buses.
http://www.gsrc.com/en/article.php?article_id=101
I'm not sure what "key subcontractors" like Snowfall, Panasonic and Trainline.com bring to their party, presumably Wi-Fi and airline-type e-ticketing.

It's difficult to judge whether the winner will be chosen for their WCML or high-speed credentials.
The WCML element will dominate the financial performance for most of the franchise, while HS2 delivers the "froth" at the end.
 

driver_m

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Shouldn't the direct award to 2019 have been sorted out by now. Thought it was supposed to have been sorted out in November? All seems very quiet ....
 

pt_mad

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Virgin only has a 30% share of the joint bid, Stagecoach is in the lead with 50%, and SNCF has 20%.

Of the other bids, the Guangshen Railway appears to have two slogans: Railway of Harmony, and As Frequent as Buses.
http://www.gsrc.com/en/article.php?article_id=101
I'm not sure what "key subcontractors" like Snowfall, Panasonic and Trainline.com bring to their party, presumably Wi-Fi and airline-type e-ticketing.

It's difficult to judge whether the winner will be chosen for their WCML or high-speed credentials.
The WCML element will dominate the financial performance for most of the franchise, while HS2 delivers the "froth" at the end.

If the Stagecoach consortium win, will it still be known as 'Virgin Trains'?
 

driver_m

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If the Stagecoach consortium win, will it still be known as 'Virgin Trains'?

Yeah, similar to what they did with East Coast, Virgin Media etc. Use the brand name of Virgin as the 'shopfront'
 

LNW-GW Joint

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If the Stagecoach consortium win, will it still be known as 'Virgin Trains'?

The SNCF element makes it interesting. They won't want to take a back seat.
As long as we don't get silly branding like "Ouigo".

I also see HS2 Ltd has awarded the electrification design contract to SNCF Réseau (suppliers will bid equipment against the design).
 

WatcherZero

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Shouldn't the direct award to 2019 have been sorted out by now. Thought it was supposed to have been sorted out in November? All seems very quiet ....

Yeah it is pretty late, they haven't even updated the Franchise timetable since last summer, usually they update it if the schedule changes. Then again communications isn't a strength of this government. Apparently a Chinese language No.10 twitter account was set up for Cameron since May took over the updates stopped a year ago and it even still says Cameron is PM.
 

All Line Rover

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Virgin Trains appears to be of the understanding that it is running the WCML until at least April 2019. Is BurgerVan suggesting that he or she is not certain of this?
 

DenmarkRail

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Yeah it is pretty late, they haven't even updated the Franchise timetable since last summer, usually they update it if the schedule changes. Then again communications isn't a strength of this government. Apparently a Chinese language No.10 twitter account was set up for Cameron since May took over the updates stopped a year ago and it even still says Cameron is PM.

UK Gov never really grasped social media, as well as the White House did, even before Trump. May should take a leaf out of Virgin Trains, and run twitter like that!
 

driver_m

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Virgin Trains appears to be of the understanding that it is running the WCML until at least April 2019. Is BurgerVan suggesting that he or she is not certain of this?

Please don't talk about me as if I'm not here. You wouldn't do that in real life. I just asked what's going on with the direct award.
 
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