West Coast Franchise speculation

[pt_mad]

The SNCF element makes it interesting. They won't want to take a back seat.
As long as we don't get silly branding like "Ouigo".

I also see HS2 Ltd has awarded the electrification design contract to SNCF Réseau (suppliers will bid equipment against the design).

So is Virgin's bid called Virgin Stagecoach Ltd or West Coast Trains Ltd or something else like that?

Is it possible that the Stagecoach consortium wins the award and has a rebrand away from anything company specific? I.e. West Coast Express or something? (just an example, I realise there could probably be some excellent and creative names).

 

[LNW-GW Joint]

The Stagecoach/Virgin/SNCF bidding vehicle is prosaically called West Coast Partnerships Ltd.
MTR/Guangshen's is MTR West Coast Partnership Ltd.
The third bidder is called First Trenitalia West Coast Ltd.

The winner may brand differently, or as directed by DfT.
The classic and HS2 brands may also be different, even if run by the same operator.
The VTEC franchisee (90% Stagecoach, 10% Virgin) is actually called Intercity Railways Ltd.

 

[KashmireHawker]

The Stagecoach/Virgin/SNCF bidding vehicle is prosaically called West Coast Partnerships Ltd.
MTR/Guangshen's is MTR West Coast Partnership Ltd.
The third bidder is called First Trenitalia West Coast Ltd.

The winner may brand differently, or as directed by DfT.
The classic and HS2 brands may also be different, even if run by the same operator.
The VTEC franchisee (90% Stagecoach, 10% Virgin) is actually called Intercity Railways Ltd.

First's original winning bid from 2012 saw them plan to the service as Horizon Trains (Registered as Horizon Trains Ltd) - that company btw is still active and is making one think that could still happen if First/Trenitalia win. Could see something like West Coast Railway with MTR as they seem to like these kind of names & VTWC will stay like that.

 

[LNW-GW Joint]

The West Coast Partnership prospectus (2017) had this to say about branding:

The transition to high speed services will require a powerful, high-quality corporate identity.
The brands for future HS2 services and the reconfigured ICWC services should drive loyalty and have longevity, so that they are able to last from one operator to another. The Partnership will develop this alongside a strong plan to explain and market the possibilities of the new line as it comes closer to opening

So the brand will not be tied to the specific operator (ie no franchise owner's branding).
So no VTWC or First whatever.
And LNWR has been taken by Abellio.

 

[driver_m]

It'll be like Northern now. I.e West Coast by Virgin Trains. It'll still be there (or whichever bidder wins) Just whatever the route brand is called will take precedence.

 

[krus_aragon]

And LNWR has been taken by Abellio.

LMS, then?

 

[dk1]

Several rumours on twitter that Virgin will be awarded another two year extension next week.

 

[DenmarkRail]

Several rumours on twitter that Virgin will be awarded another two year extension next week.

I have seen some conflicting information... Some saying, it is an extension starting in 2019, others saying it is an extension starting this April, some saying it is one year, others saying it's two years.

 

[E6007]

I have seen some conflicting information... Some saying, it is an extension starting in 2019, others saying it is an extension starting this April, some saying it is one year, others saying it's two years.

Current contract expires in 2018, when West Coast Partnership was announced, DfT said they would extend for 12 months to April 2019; now apparently going to announce on Monday that they are extending it for 24 months to April 2020.

Also on page 2 of today's Times

 

[LNW-GW Joint]

Presumably to give the DfT another year to sort out the ITT and competition for the new West Coast Partnership.
This is the 4th 2-year direct award since 2012, the severe downside being the inability to acquire additional rolling stock for new services.
I can't read the full Times article, but it predictably seems to major on Virgin's "reward for failure" after the outcry about renegotiating the VTEC franchise.
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/...lucrative-west-coast-main-line-deal-892zznnwg

 

[jyte]

Can someone remind me of the stagecoach / virgin rail group split on VTWC? I know east coast is 90:10 and Virgin is basically just there for the branding.

 

[Domh245]

Can someone remind me of the stagecoach / virgin rail group split on VTWC? I know east coast is 90:10 and Virgin is basically just there for the branding.

Stagecoach 49/51 Virgin

 

[KashmireHawker]

The article suggests they will be required to have bigger satisfaction targets, Free WiFi in all carriages at some point within those 2 years, Delay Repay for 15 mins and popping funds aside for HS2 Preparation.

 

[pt_mad]

Presumably to give the DfT another year to sort out the ITT and competition for the new West Coast Partnership.
This is the 4th 2-year direct award since 2012, the severe downside being the inability to acquire additional rolling stock for new services.
I can't read the full Times article, but it predictably seems to major on Virgin's "reward for failure" after the outcry about renegotiating the VTEC franchise.
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/...lucrative-west-coast-main-line-deal-892zznnwg

So if this is true, it will mean no new rolling stock since some of the Pendolinos were extended from 9 cars to 11.

Although will new rolling stock even be a requirement of the new franchise on the WCML part of the operation? One would assume not, given that after HS2, they will probably have more tilting stock than is necessary.

Something to replace the voyagers would be nice.

Shouldn't a condition of any potential 2 year award be a full exterior repaint by the leasing company of the Voyagers, and a full interior refurbishment of both Pendolinos and Voyagers?

By Christmas 2019 the interiors of the existing rolling stock, mainly voyagers will seem even more dated than it does today. Magnolia coloured plastic is definitely ageing.

 

[gsnedders]

So if this is true, it will mean no new rolling stock since some of the Pendolinos were extended from 9 cars to 11.

Although will new rolling stock even be a requirement of the new franchise on the WCML part of the operation? One would assume not, given that after HS2, they will probably have more tilting stock than is necessary.

Something to replace the voyagers would be nice.

Shouldn't a condition of any potential 2 year award be a full exterior repaint by the leasing company of the Voyagers, and a full interior refurbishment of both Pendolinos and Voyagers?

By Christmas 2019 the interiors of the existing rolling stock, mainly voyagers will seem even more dated than it does today. Magnolia coloured plastic is definitely ageing.

I expect any significant work on the rolling stock won't happen until we have a decision on HS2 rolling stock, because that will have a significant knock-on effect.

 

[pt_mad]

I expect any significant work on the rolling stock won't happen until we have a decision on HS2 rolling stock, because that will have a significant knock-on effect.

Won't the owner of the trains want to protect and future proof their assets?

We'll still need all the Pendolinos until minimum 2026.

East coast have had refurbishment and they're having new trains.

 

[DenmarkRail]

I wonder if VT will add to the livery now they have until 2020... 2 years, might just be enough to make it feasible?

 

[gsnedders]

Won't the owner of the trains want to protect and future proof their assets?

We'll still need all the Pendolinos until minimum 2026.

East coast have had refurbishment and they're having new trains.

Well, in principle the ROSOC isn't a party to the franchise contract.

 

[LNW-GW Joint]

Shouldn't a condition of any potential 2 year award be a full exterior repaint by the leasing company of the Voyagers, and a full interior refurbishment of both Pendolinos and Voyagers?

DfT has previously allowed life-cycle stuff on the Pendolinos including repaints and mild interior refurbs.
This time it looks like free Wi-Fi (which was promised last time but hasn't appeared yet), and some customer service tweaks.
But the only way you'll get anything new is with a franchise timescale of 7 years or so, otherwise the business case doesn't work.
Of course it will be more than 7 years since 2012, but contracted in 2-year slices so no possibility of doing anything radical.
That suits DfT down to the ground (keep raking in the premiums, no more awkward tilting stock to worry about...).
The delay might be more worrying for the WCP bidders though if the ITT slips further - they will have assembled bid teams ready to go.
Hopefully it's a 1-year award (to 2019) with the option of another year written in.

 

[dk1]

Let's just keep this going for ever & ever. After twenty plus years & counting the WCML without Virgin just wouldn't be the same. Who would've bet on that back in August 2012?

 

[WatcherZero]

Wont this now break the EU rules on length and number of times a contract can be extended without retendering, I guess since we are leaving the EU they hope no one will care.

 

[Pumbaa]

Virgin only has a 30% share of the joint bid, Stagecoach is in the lead with 50%, and SNCF has 20%.

Of the other bids, the Guangshen Railway appears to have two slogans: Railway of Harmony, and As Frequent as Buses.
http://www.gsrc.com/en/article.php?article_id=101
I'm not sure what "key subcontractors" like Snowfall, Panasonic and Trainline.com bring to their party, presumably Wi-Fi and airline-type e-ticketing.

It's difficult to judge whether the winner will be chosen for their WCML or high-speed credentials.
The WCML element will dominate the financial performance for most of the franchise, while HS2 delivers the "froth" at the end.

The ITT with the scoring criteria and evaluation methodology will be published as the competition starts, so it should pretty clear which credentials the DfT think is most important.

 

[pt_mad]

DfT has previously allowed life-cycle stuff on the Pendolinos including repaints and mild interior refurbs.
This time it looks like free Wi-Fi (which was promised last time but hasn't appeared yet), and some customer service tweaks.
But the only way you'll get anything new is with a franchise timescale of 7 years or so, otherwise the business case doesn't work.
Of course it will be more than 7 years since 2012, but contracted in 2-year slices so no possibility of doing anything radical.
That suits DfT down to the ground (keep raking in the premiums, no more awkward tilting stock to worry about...).
The delay might be more worrying for the WCP bidders though if the ITT slips further - they will have assembled bid teams ready to go.
Hopefully it's a 1-year award (to 2019) with the option of another year written in.

I just can't believe they aren't interested in doing up the inside of the trains after 15 years of operation, when the East Coast sets have been fully refurbished inside at least twice, and have new modern seats.

Why aren't the leasing company wanting the trains modernised? Whoever gets the next franchise, they will need modernised Pendolinos, and Voyagers for a while at least, so why not just do them?

Refurbishments have been carried out on the East coast regardless of new trains being due shortly. Whether or not the contract is one year, two years, four years, new franchise, has no bearing on Joe blogs travelling from Euston to Bangor on essentially a circa 1999/2000 train design which has since had next to no interior improvements.

 

[daikilo]

I just can't believe they aren't interested in doing up the inside of the trains after 15 years of operation, when the East Coast sets have been fully refurbished inside at least twice, and have new modern seats.

Why aren't the leasing company wanting the trains modernised? Whoever gets the next franchise, they will need modernised Pendolinos, and Voyagers for a while at least, so why not just do them?

Refurbishments have been carried out on the East coast regardless of new trains being due shortly. Whether or not the contract is one year, two years, four years, new franchise, has no bearing on Joe blogs travelling from Euston to Bangor on essential totally a circa 1999/2000 train design which has since had next to no interior improvements.

A 2-year extension is possibly the worst outcome in this context. No doubt the 390 owners fully understand that something is needed, but what? VTWC probably is not interested as it will take too long to do the lot and the interiors are already densified to the point that even an additional row is probably questionable. As for Joe Blogs, he pays for whatever he gets.

 

[driver_m]

I just can't believe they aren't interested in doing up the inside of the trains after 15 years of operation, when the East Coast sets have been fully refurbished inside at least twice, and have new modern seats.

Why aren't the leasing company wanting the trains modernised? Whoever gets the next franchise, they will need modernised Pendolinos, and Voyagers for a while at least, so why not just do them?

Refurbishments have been carried out on the East coast regardless of new trains being due shortly. Whether or not the contract is one year, two years, four years, new franchise, has no bearing on Joe blogs travelling from Euston to Bangor on essentially a circa 1999/2000 train design which has since had next to no interior improvements.

They've been virtually fully replaced inside though. Pretty much everything such as the doors, the seats, the bogs, (yes the pipework too!) Ok they haven't been updated like other trains, but unlike an original 350, they're not tatty..

 

[dk1]

A partial refurb maybe something that is also announced this week as part of the extension. We will have to just wait & see.

 

[pt_mad]

A 2-year extension is possibly the worst outcome in this context. No doubt the 390 owners fully understand that something is needed, but what? VTWC probably is not interested as it will take too long to do the lot and the interiors are already densified to the point that even an additional row is probably questionable. As for Joe Blogs, he pays for whatever he gets.

If there's limited funds and time, they could perhaps update interior lighting to LED fittings to bring efficiency and an improved ambience rather than the current yellow (warm) lighting. They could cover some of the magnolia plastics with wood effect vinyls very cheaply. Perhaps replace the overhead racks with glass racks, to make it feel more spacious and open (particularly on the Voyagers, and also gets rid of some yellow plastic).

And perhaps move the metal luggage racks to places where there is a plastic panel instead of a window. As there are currently luggage racks in front of windows and then other seats next to a full blocked out plastic panel window.

And perhaps remove that yellow plastic panel which runs across the ceiling with the circular light fittings within it. Has a sort of cream coloured mottled effect on it. Looks more APT than Pendolino or Voyager. Replacing with a modern grey with new modern light fittings would be good and probably relatively cheap in refurb terms.

 

[Bletchleyite]

Some of us like the warm white subdued lighting and the quality feel it gives.

 

[pt_mad]

Some of us like the warm white subdued lighting and the quality feel it gives.

Seem to be getting rid of warm yellowy lighting on stations in favour of either neutral or white lighting. The 350 have a neutral shade of white lighting, about 4000k in heat terms. Whereas the 390s seem to be more at 2700 - 3000k. 4500 is crisp white and 5000k plus is bluey white like first great western.

 

[All Line Rover]

I think faux wood panelling looks more dated than cream. Why would the franchise holder (Virgin or otherwise) want to spend money - that will, in the end, come from passengers, not shareholders - on 'improvements' that are not needed?

Other than the seating layout (which I am sure would not be improved under a 'refurbishment' - look at XC, for example) and the unstoppable toilet odours, there is nothing wrong with the Pendolinos apart from the occasional component fault such as a misted window, broken plug socket or rattling panel. Virgin appear to (pay to) maintain them well.