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West Coast Franchise speculation
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LNW-GW Joint
Veteran Member
Snowfall seems to be an electronic commerce company, and trainline is of course a ticket distribution company.
Panasonic does in-flight entertainment systems.
However none of that seems anything particularly to do with high-speed rail operation, unless the market is Japanese or American tourists.
Deloitte is finance.
Only Parsons Brinckerhoff is a rail-tech company (consultants).
Another distinct absentee is Eurostar, although you might say they are linked with the SNCF presence in the Stagecoach/Virgin/SNCF bid.
adrock1976
Established Member
A slight sideways deviation - Have National Express now totally abandoned the idea of bidding for railway franchises now?
I can remember when they were the leading bus company that had a lot of rail franchises around the late 1990s/early noughties, with them being a mix of former Intercity (Midland Mainline), Regional Railways (Central, Valley Lines), and Network SouthEast (London, Tilbury, & Southend Railway) services.
I am aware that National Express have recently dispensed with their sole remaining UK franchise - the London, Tilbury, & Southend Railway.
Had NX still retained ownership of the LTS franchise, might they have tried one of the three franchises south of the Thames? Hypothetical I know, as I do not recall them being interested in railway operations south of the Thames.
I can remember when they were the leading bus company that had a lot of rail franchises around the late 1990s/early noughties, with them being a mix of former Intercity (Midland Mainline), Regional Railways (Central, Valley Lines), and Network SouthEast (London, Tilbury, & Southend Railway) services.
I am aware that National Express have recently dispensed with their sole remaining UK franchise - the London, Tilbury, & Southend Railway.
Had NX still retained ownership of the LTS franchise, might they have tried one of the three franchises south of the Thames? Hypothetical I know, as I do not recall them being interested in railway operations south of the Thames.
Bletchleyite
Veteran Member
LTS is and always was pretty stand-alone, so I doubt it'd be relevant.
KashmireHawker
Member
It seems like NX have packed in rail wise within the UK - for now, after selling C2C to Trenitalia earlier this year. They are concentrating on there German division of which they have 2 current contracts, 2 which begin in 2019 and one in 2020.
DB seem slightly frightened of NX's presence...
LNW-GW Joint
Veteran Member
They used to run Gatwick Express, when first franchised, and 40% of the Eurostar UK operation before its restructuring.
And Wales & West (Wessex) was arguably south of the Thames in a few places (eg Weymouth, Portsmouth, Brighton).
They exited UK rail earlier this year, so it would be rather silly to come back in so soon.
What the short list doesn't tell us is who put outline bids in and didn't make the cut.
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WatcherZero
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According to Tony Miles the MTR bid was a late one and it was only expected to be the other two bidders submitting.
WatcherZero
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Beacon Rail has announced its bought the 220/221 fleet off Lloyds Bank/Bank of Scotland. This covers 352 vehicles in 78 sets. Bold move for stock rapidly approaching 20 year old.
Interesting! Off topic - but does anyone know what the future holds for the Virgin 221/390 stock after they are displaced from WCML services after the introduction of HS2?
Bletchleyite
Veteran Member
Scrap? They'll be well over 30 years old by then, and they have had a hard life so far.
True - although they are miles better than some of the stock we have up north, is it possible for them to be shortened and used as shorter distance stock (after a good refurb of the interior of course!). On another note - will WCML services be affected much during the construction of HS2 or will the service remain similar to the current service?
The Planner
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No more than it would for any other NR engineering works.
Given that, the XC ones at least, wouldn't be London's cast offs they might get a warmer welcome!!!!
Joking aside, it is more likely that they would get lengthened (scrap sine end coaches and use the middle coaches in other units) as passenger numbers are likely to be higher by then than they are now.
Also there's still going to be bus of the network (Scotland, Cornwall, Wales, WofE line, East West Rail, etc.) Where high speed DMU's could be useful.
For instance, using a path out of Waterloo because of Crossrail 2 and electrification to Yeovil there could be a good case for:
- a 10 coach 22x running to Exeter (semi fast)
- 2 X 10 coach 444 running to Yeovil (semi fast to Salisbury then stopping)
- a 4 coach DMU between Exeter and Westbury via Yeovil with cross platform change to one of the 444's
- 2 X extended Basingstoke stoppers (or Basingstoke to Heathrow via the Southern Approach) calling all stations to Salisbury.
Yes it may be short lived in that the 22x may only have about 8 years of life, but that should be enough for passenger numbers to increase that a newer train type could be cost effective to replace them.
It would also mean that Waterloo only had 100mph (or faster) trains using it.
I'm sure that others would be able to think of other uses for them.
I don't think shortening them would be a good idea, they don't have a good seat:length ratio.
One for the fantasy thread methinks ....
MylesHSG
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Whats the rush to get rid of the Pendo's? Apart from the toilet issue and the fact they have small windows they are well looked after by Alstom and are reliable as any other EMU.
ChiefPlanner
Established Member
Technically excellent - interior ambience not very good. Need an internal seating reconfiguration - you have even in 1st class , seats with a view of a bulkhead and luggage racks which have a window view ! - the underused - or unused 1st class service point could yield a few more seats. Standard could do with more groupings around tables IMHO. Better legroom.
MylesHSG
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I imagine they will get an internal refresh sooner rather than later, maybe with a new West Coast Operator, who knows...
In 2026 they will be 20-25 years old and have at least 10 years service left. The WCML/HS2 franchise will have 54 classic compatible sets which will make most of the Pendalinos and half the Voyagers redundant (assuming they are only needed for London-Chester/Holyhead. TPE Manchester Airport - Scotland services would be faster with Pendalinos than 397s because of tilting. It is entirely possible Manchester-Leeds will be wired by 2026 meaning plenty of alternative uses for the 397s. Spare Voyagers will likely be snapped up by CrossCountry or Chilterns to replace HSTs.
MylesHSG
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Didn't think Chiltern had HST's. Only DMU's and class 67/68 loco's
Oops yes your right. My point still stands though. The Voyagers will be appealing to ToCs and about 10 will be surpless to requirements in 2026.
LNW-GW Joint
Veteran Member
DfT has already stated that some 390s would be available to other TOCs after 2026.
However that was before the cut back in wiring schemes, which reduces the potential.
I think the HS2/WCML rolling stock position has a long way to go before we can be sure how it will all work after 2026, including whether tilt is retained on the northern half.
Some other dominos will also have fallen well before then, with MML and XC routes likely to be re-equipped with bi-modes.
The LM setup will be different too, with separate WCML and WM operation.
I think we can rule out electrification west of Crewe now, as well.
However that was before the cut back in wiring schemes, which reduces the potential.
I think the HS2/WCML rolling stock position has a long way to go before we can be sure how it will all work after 2026, including whether tilt is retained on the northern half.
Some other dominos will also have fallen well before then, with MML and XC routes likely to be re-equipped with bi-modes.
The LM setup will be different too, with separate WCML and WM operation.
I think we can rule out electrification west of Crewe now, as well.
MylesHSG
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Would be nice if they did, but they'd just get stuck behind stoppers!
Xenophon PCDGS
Veteran Member
What is the longest Pendalino set that can be accommodated in the platforms at Manchester Airport?
LNW-GW Joint
Veteran Member
They are all 196-201m, so 8x23m max.
edwin_m
Veteran Member
Also if Piccadilly gets platforms 15-16 they will be too short for Pendolinos, and I think the scheme shortens 13 and 14 too.
Droping one car per unit would probably still be the best option, I am struggling to think of sufficient electric lines to spread the fleet between that arent getting or likely to get new stock.
LNW-GW Joint
Veteran Member
There's some inescapable logic about the use of non-tilt classic-compatible stock for HS2.
Converting the 2tph Euston-Scotland to CC stock (via HS2) means there is no point in utilising tilt north of Crewe.
So all services will become non-tilt, except anything running to Euston via Rugby.
That means any old EMU/bi-mode can run services on the northern WCML, such as Hitachi AT300s.
Using bi-modes removes the obstacle to through running north of Edinburgh/south of Birmingham, so "XC" services could resume those routes.
So by 2027 you could have:
- Euston-Birmingham/Manchester/Liverpool/Glasgow/Edinburgh via HS2 with CC stock (non-tilt)
- Euston-MKC/Coventry/Birmingham/Stoke/Crewe via Rugby with Pendolinos (tilt)
- Euston-Rugby-Crewe-Chester/Shrewsbury-Holyhead (Voyager, tilt)
- Bristol/Reading-Birmingham-Preston-Scotland (bi-mode, beyond Edinburgh possible)
Before long, AT300 (80x) will be ETCS-fitted and using that out of Paddington, and later out of King's Cross.
There would be nothing to stop such ETCS-fitted bi-modes running on HS2 if it makes operational sense (speed differences etc).
They could replace the remaining Voyager services off the WCML wires.
That seems to be the direction of travel for the West Coast Partnership at the moment.
Any other opinions?
Converting the 2tph Euston-Scotland to CC stock (via HS2) means there is no point in utilising tilt north of Crewe.
So all services will become non-tilt, except anything running to Euston via Rugby.
That means any old EMU/bi-mode can run services on the northern WCML, such as Hitachi AT300s.
Using bi-modes removes the obstacle to through running north of Edinburgh/south of Birmingham, so "XC" services could resume those routes.
So by 2027 you could have:
- Euston-Birmingham/Manchester/Liverpool/Glasgow/Edinburgh via HS2 with CC stock (non-tilt)
- Euston-MKC/Coventry/Birmingham/Stoke/Crewe via Rugby with Pendolinos (tilt)
- Euston-Rugby-Crewe-Chester/Shrewsbury-Holyhead (Voyager, tilt)
- Bristol/Reading-Birmingham-Preston-Scotland (bi-mode, beyond Edinburgh possible)
Before long, AT300 (80x) will be ETCS-fitted and using that out of Paddington, and later out of King's Cross.
There would be nothing to stop such ETCS-fitted bi-modes running on HS2 if it makes operational sense (speed differences etc).
They could replace the remaining Voyager services off the WCML wires.
That seems to be the direction of travel for the West Coast Partnership at the moment.
Any other opinions?
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Yes, whilst I am aware that the intent appears to be for HS2 stock not to have tilt, no-one I am aware of is planning to straighten the WCML so tilt will continue to bring time-savings, and we know that rail travel is time-sensitive.
Also, do not write-off "beyond Crewe" for anything that does not start at Euston, there is a life outside London and it also likes to travel north, including Manchester and Liverpool. Maybe open access?
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