Weather Discussion Thread

[valenta]

Thought it may be appropriate to set up a more formal thread for the discussion of weather.
It's something which I have had an interest in for a number of years now, and I know that at least one other member of the forum has an interest aswell.
I hope that this thread won't turn entirely into a place to moan, it would be nice to see some (reasonably educated) forecasts from members with an interest in the subject and also it would be how a particular weather event has effected members of the forum (positively or negatively).

Thanks.

 

[michael769]

Unfortunately the recent run of good weather is proving to be short lived and with the jet stream speeding up again, whilst remaining on its unseasonably southerly track we are about to see a return to the very wet conditions that have been prevalent this summer.

Indeed most areas can expect to see some rain tomorrow, and another bout of very persistent rain on Wednesday into Thursday bringing with it the possibility of flash floods. Temperatures are though likely to remain high (albeit not as much as has been the case in the sun), and with the rain it may feel very humid at times, and some may find it hard to get to sleep at night.

There is some uncertainty about next weekend, but it is looking very warm again, the main unresolved question is if we will see some sun or more unsettled thundery conditions.

Longer term with the jet stream in control there are few grounds for optimism for another settled period.

 

[valenta]

Unfortunately the recent run of good weather is proving to be short lived and with the jet stream speeding up again, whilst remaining on its unseasonably southerly track we are about to see a return to the very wet conditions that have been prevalent this summer.

Indeed most areas can expect to see some rain tomorrow, and another bout of very persistent rain on Wednesday into Thursday bringing with it the possibility of flash floods. Temperatures are though likely to remain high (albeit not as much as has been the case in the sun), and with the rain it may feel very humid at times, and some may find it hard to get to sleep at night.

There is some uncertainty about next weekend, but it is looking very warm again, the main unresolved question is if we will see some sun or more unsettled hundred conditions.

Longer term with the jet stream in control there are few grounds for optimism for another settled period.

Agree entirely with your forecast for the week ahead, certainly a lot more use than the vague drivel from the met office.
Indeed, next Wednesday into Thursday could be interesting, with an unusually deep low for August crossing the country, could lead to problems.
You also mentioned the chance of a warm spell next weekend, at present it appears as if it is going to be very short lived (possibly only Saturday) however it could be really very humid with suggestions of temperatures upto 30c in the southeast.

 

[SS4]

Unfortunately the recent run of good weather is proving to be short lived and with the jet stream speeding up again, whilst remaining on its unseasonably southerly track we are about to see a return to the very wet conditions that have been prevalent this summer.

Indeed most areas can expect to see some rain tomorrow, and another bout of very persistent rain on Wednesday into Thursday bringing with it the possibility of flash floods. Temperatures are though likely to remain high (albeit not as much as has been the case in the sun), and with the rain it may feel very humid at times, and some may find it hard to get to sleep at night.

There is some uncertainty about next weekend, but it is looking very warm again, the main unresolved question is if we will see some sun or more unsettled thundery conditions.

Longer term with the jet stream in control there are few grounds for optimism for another settled period.

Most of your post is good but the words in bold don't belong there.

 

[anthony263]

Yes the weather is ok but it is too bloody hot at night so trying to get some sleep is terrible.

We had some thunder storms pass through south wales in the early hours this morning which woke me up at 1am and I had a hard time getting back to sleep finally giving up by 05:30.

Hopefully we will be getting some much cooler weather soon.

 

[ainsworth74]

Most of your post is good but the words in bold don't belong there.

Why not?

 

[SS4]

Why not?

Opinion presented as fact.

 

[ainsworth74]

Opinion presented as fact.

Eh? People aren't allowed to hold opinions any more? How on earth is there anything wrong with saying something along the lines of "The good weather we've been enjoying is going to end"? I'm sorry but that seem a ridiculously petty thing to pick someone up on...

 

[SS4]

Eh? People aren't allowed to hold opinions any more? How on earth is there anything wrong with saying something along the lines of "The good weather we've been enjoying is going to end"? I'm sorry but that seem a ridiculously petty thing to pick someone up on...

That straw man has taken a beating. Opinion presented as fact is the problem, one can hold an opinion until the end of time and broadcast it so long as it's made clear that it's only one's opinion. The post I quoted has presented his opinion as though it were fact.
It's less his post but the weather reports suffer from the same problem.

By the way did I mention the world is flat?

 

[michael769]

I believe I presented a forecast. Forecasts are by their nature a opinion about future events. I am struggling to understand how any reasonable person could be expected to misinterpret a forecast as fact?

 

[flymo]

I am struggling to understand how any reasonable person could be expected to misinterpret a forecast as fact?

You're not the only one.....

 

[SS4]

I believe I presented a forecast. Forecasts are by their nature a opinion about future events. I am struggling to understand how any reasonable person could be expected to misinterpret a forecast as fact?

You said "good" weather instead of "sunny". That the weather is sunny (but not today) is more factual than saying the weather is good.

Half my address book would say this wet, overcast weather is good. Are they factually wrong?

 

[valenta]

You said "good" weather instead of "sunny". That the weather is sunny (but not today) is more factual than saying the weather is good.

Half my address book would say this wet, overcast weather is good. Are they factually wrong?

Unfortunately it's very easy to class sunny weather as "good", it's almost like using analogy to describe weather. Ideally the weather should be described as "sunny" but, as you said, as it is used so frequently it does not alter our perception of the forecast.

 

[Butts]

The problem with the weather is the geographic diversity of it within the UK.

Generally speaking the further North you go the colder it is.

How many times have I watched Wimbledon basked in sunshine whilst sitting in the middle of a downpour up here.

Very rarely our weather is better than that down south, believe me its a rarity.

Having said all that it can be raining in Falkirk and sunny in Edinburgh so even within a small area it is unpredictable.

Mind you it would be dead boring if it was sunny everyday- we'd have nothing to talk or more often moan about

 

[Xenophon PCDGS]

Can someone tell me the reason why the jet stream assumed its position this year, as I heard it said this was not its normal position. I confess to being a total novice on weather-related matters, even at the age of 67.

This new thread seems to be just the place to ask this question, as there appears to be some forum members with a deep understanding of the weather patters.

 

[LE Greys]

It's an old problem of presentation. Forecasters often say "the risk of rain" when they mean "the possibility of rain". Weather gets stereotyped into positive and negative qualities, and because people hear it so often, they expect it as normal.

I'd prefer to receive tomorrow's forecast for North Herts as something like this:

Wind, southerly 2 or 3 becoming variable
Rain or showers
Visibility, moderate or poor
Temperature, average 18C with midday high of 21C

 

[michael769]

There is no definitive answers to your question about the jet stream While the physics of the atmosphere are well understood, the calculations are complex enough that even the worlds fastest computers cannot run them fast enought to keep up.

While we cannot say why, it is possible to describe the large scale atmospheric conditions that have come together to create the conditions.

Normally the jet stream migrates north in spring, as the difference in temperature between the equator and the north sea declines. However the jet streams route is not straightforwards as areas of high pressure (high pressure is basically a column of descending air that comes down and flows outwards preventing weather systems from approaching) forceing it to curve round them.

This summer North America has experienced an exceptional heat wave which caused the jet stream over the USA to shift further north than usual. This somehow allowed a vast area of high pressure to form over Greenland, this created an effective barrier to the forcing it to loop southwards over the Atlantic and a little to the South of the UK. Meanwhile high pressure over central Europe (a normal feature this time of year) forces it to loop northwards up the English channel. The result is weather systems being swept up over southern England and the "stalling" against the Euro high and drifting slowly up the east coast, resulting in huge rainfall amounts being racked up.

This interaction of large long lived high pressure areas with the jet stream and other weather systems is what is known as a blocked pattern. Blocking has been unusually prevalent near the UK for the last 5 years (the reason for this is unclear) and as well as some poor summers, blocking was also responsible for the two very severe winters, and indeed also for last winter which was unusually mild and dry.

 

[valenta]

The chances of a more prolonged warm and settled spell starting next Saturday seem increasingly likely with many models in agreement this evening. However as is the case with weather, scenarios can change rapidly.

 

[HST Power]

Is it me or have the weather forecasters got it made?

It's the only job where you can go in and be wrong every single day.

Yet you still get paid (a packet) and you don't get sacked either.

I'm sure there's a lot more to the job but sometimes I wonder!

 

[Xenophon PCDGS]

Can anyone see a spell of coming weather that will be helpful to the farming community of Britain in respect of betterment of expected yields.

 

[Robinson]

I will certainly be keeping an eye on this thread as we head towards September 18th, the day on which I start the 9-day Cleveland Way walk...

 

[SS4]

Is it me or have the weather forecasters got it made?

It's the only job where you can go in and be wrong every single day.

Yet you still get paid (a packet) and you don't get sacked either.

I'm sure there's a lot more to the job but sometimes I wonder!

You can be a politician (of any colour)

 

[Xenophon PCDGS]

Indeed most areas can expect to see some rain tomorrow, and another bout of very persistent rain on Wednesday into Thursday bringing with it the possibility of flash floods.

Interesting to note that the first part of your forecast for Monday, 13th August was reiterated on the BBC North-West news weather forecast for Monday. It was stated that a belt of rainfall would cross eastwards from Northern Ireland and cross all parts of the Northern area. There were pictograms of blue rainfall areas moving in an easterly direction on the map.

Whilst there was a build-up of cloud cover with some quite sizeable rather dark clouds during the late morning, coupled with an increase in the wind speed, no rain actually fell at any part of Monday in our area of North-East Cheshire that borders the hills near to Macclesfield.

Whilst all the conditions that normally act as a preamble to rainfall were present, what would be the meteorological reason be why no rain actually fell ?

 

[michael769]

Whilst all the conditions that normally act as a preamble to rainfall were present, what would be the meteorological reason be why no rain actually fell ?

Try telling the folks in Lough Fea(48mm) or in the North West, Crosby(17.0 mm) that no rain fell.

Basically the frontal system was much weaker than expected and rained itself out quite quickly over the South and West meaning that as it moved North Eastwards for much of the country it brought nothing more than a band of clouds and the odd spit and spot of rain for some, but with sharp showers for others. Predicting the amount of rainfall in a frontal system is always problematic, as it depends on a huge array of very localized factors - basically we do not yet have computers fast enough to run the NWP fluid dynamics fomulae at a high enough resolution to be able to pick up such subtle signals.

 

[HST Power]

You can be a politician (of any colour)

At least the weathermen don't have to go canvassing! :P

 

[valenta]

Despite what the BBC news and Met Office continues to tell us, models are still suggesting a heatwave next weekend and possibly extending into the following week. The met office is suggesting a 25c maximum for London on Saturday, despite models indicating that London will get closer to 30 degrees and possibly reach above that.

Tomorrow looks as if it could be troublesome with the potential for some disruption as unusually low area of pressure (for August) moves northeastwards.

The weekend could be fairly warm and there's potential for a more settled spell for next week, particularly in the south and east, with temperatures responding to this. In the west there appears to be more chance of rainfall with cooler temperatures.

Forecasting further than that is often inaccurate but it appears as if cooler temperatures will return and a continuation of fairly unsettled conditions.
--- old post above --- --- new post below ---
Well here's my take on the weather for the for the weekend and the week ahead: Saturday and Sunday will be warm wherever you are in the country, and hot in the South East and East Anglia with the the potential of temperatures as high as 32c.
The places where we see the warmest temperatures will also have the best chance of a dry and sunny weekend. Fairly cloudy over the rest of the UK with some breaks in the cloud. Many places will see showers tomorrow and these could be heavy and thundery. A more substantial band of rain will lie across the country on Sunday and though there is uncertainty as to where the rain band at the moment it is likely to be over Wales the North West and North East of England and the East of Scotland, here temperatures will be cooler.
South and East of the rain band temperatures are likely to be a lot warmer, with another hot day predicted in the South East and East Anglia. The Midlands will also see warm temperatures (though it is likely to be cloudier and showery here given the proximity to the rain band).
Next week temperatures will gradually cool with the South East staying on to the warm temperatures for longest. Towards the end of the week and into the bank holiday there are suggestions that temperatures may well fall to below average, particularly in more Northern areas. The continuation of showery weather across the North and West is likely with the best of the dry weather to the South.

 

[The Barlow Boy]

I don't care what it does as long as it's bright, overcast and mild with a very light wind this coming Wednesday as that's my fishing day.

 

[Xenophon PCDGS]

My wife tells me that she saw a report that somewhere in the Sussex area had a Saturday temperature of over 32 degrees C.

 

[michael769]

My wife tells me that she saw a report that somewhere in the Sussex area had a Saturday temperature of over 32 degrees C.

Highest confirmed temperature reading was 32.4 at Cavendish. The most notable thing about this wekend is not the temperatures at ground level, which while hot are not exceptional, but the temperatures in the lower and mid levels of the atmosphere which are very unusual this far North.

The coming fortnight will be quite changeable and unsettled, but next week will be by no means a wash out with plenty of sunshine about but also lots of showers especially in the north and west, and a little rain for Scotland midweek. The sharp drop in temperatures predicted for Tuseday now looks like it will not happen, instead we will see a slow downwards drift over the week and so it is set to remain very warm for the time of year especially in the South - these high temperatures in the middle atmosphere have the potential to add a lot of energy to those showers clouds that do develop and some are likely to become thundery with torrential downpours and hail a distinct possibility. The bank holiday weekend currently looks like having low pressure nearby and thus quite unsettled and wet, but the most recent Met Office computer model run suggests that this may be a less significant feature than was originally modeled - so the wet scenario for next weekend's weather is by no means a foregone conclusion - pinning this down may require a few more model runs over the next day or so.
--- old post above --- --- new post below ---
Today will see a storm bringing a band of rain across most of the country. The rain will be patchy in nature but most areas will see at least a little at some point. As the storm pulls away Saturday will be showery with another band of rain affecting Northern England and Southern Scotland. Sunday will be drier and brighter, there may be the odd shower but it will be mostly dry but with winds being pulled down from the North temperatures are going to drop quite noticeably with a light ground frost in some sheltered rural areas in Scotland.

Next week will begin on a very stormy note with gale force winds and further bands of rain on Monday giving way to more showery conditions midweek. Towards the end of the week there is a tentative signal for high pressure to build over the country. The extent to which this happens and its timing remains a little unclear, as the computer models are giving mixed signals about its developmen, but if it development, it can be expected to bring dry settled and sunny weather at least for a time. Although days are getting shorter the sun still gets up high enough to make it feel warm when we have clear skys, however with winds likely to be coming from the north at first nighttime temperatures can be expected to fall away a rural frosts can be expected.

 

[starrymarkb]

I'm regretting not bringing a coat today, it was quite nice when I left the house at 6:30 this morning... it isn't nice now!